Pacific Airport Group (PAC): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $217.43, Pacific Airport Group (PAC) is priced for -0.1% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-24.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/PAC

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 6: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.5pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~7.6%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=17)

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Fewer people flew and the company earned more: passengers across the 14 airports fell 5.6% in the second quarter of 2026 while EBITDA rose 8.4% to Ps. 5,965.3 million, a margin of 69.3% excluding construction revenue.

• The largest risk sits on the balance sheet rather than the runways: net debt reached Ps. 45,893.7 million at 30 June 2026, against Ps. 12,376.4 million of dividends declared in the first half and Ps. 12.0 billion of capital spending guided for the year.

• Management now guides 2026 passenger traffic between -3% and 0% while still guiding EBITDA up 10% to 12%, which is a forecast about regulated tariffs rather than about demand.

Bull Case

Fewer people flew through these airports this spring, and the company made more money. Total passengers across the 14 airports fell 5.6% in the second quarter of 2026, yet EBITDA rose 8.4% to Ps. 5,965.3 million and the margin expanded to 69.3% excluding construction revenue. That is not a paradox. It is what happens when the price of the core service is a regulated maximum tariff set for a five-year programme rather than a number negotiated with the customer each season.

The split inside the revenue line shows exactly how it works. Aeronautical revenue, the part that moves with passengers, fell 3.2%. Non-aeronautical revenue climbed 23.9%, driven by a 59.4% jump in the businesses the group runs itself and the first consolidation of Cross Border Xpress. Total revenue still rose 3.7%. An airport operator that owns its own retail, parking and food businesses converts each remaining passenger into more revenue than one that simply collects rent, and that conversion does not require the passenger count to grow.

Cross Border Xpress deserves its own paragraph. It is the enclosed pedestrian bridge that lets a traveller park in San Diego and walk directly into the Tijuana terminal, and GAP completed a business combination effective 1 May 2026 that took its ownership to 100% and internalised the technical assistance and technology transfer services it had been paying for. In its first two months inside the group it produced Ps. 468.1 million of revenue and Ps. 315.8 million of EBITDA, a 67.5% margin. A toll bridge attached to an airport is close to the ideal asset in this industry: fixed infrastructure, captive route, no aircraft to schedule.

The closest listed comparison makes the operating performance look better still. ASUR reported second-quarter revenue up 9.9% to Ps. 9,579 million but EBITDA down 8.7% to Ps. 4,590 million. GAP grew revenue less and grew profit considerably more, in the same country and largely the same demand environment.

What the quote asks of all this is modest. Today's price requires operating income to grow 0% a year on the economics the business has demonstrated. Management is guiding total revenue up 7% to 10% and EBITDA up 10% to 12% for 2026, with a full-year EBITDA margin around 67%. Those two statements are difficult to hold at the same time. Either the guidance is wrong, or the market is pricing a business that is currently being paid to stand still and is not standing still.

Bear Case

The undemanding assumption embedded in the quote is itself the warning. Trading on roughly 12.5 times operating profit, the price requires operating income to grow 0% a year, and a market that asks nothing of an infrastructure business usually has a reason for asking nothing.

Start with the passengers, because eventually everything here runs through them. Traffic fell 5.6% in the second quarter, some 891.6 thousand fewer people, and management cut the full-year range to between -3% and 0%. ASUR, operating the other half of Mexico's airport map, saw traffic fall 2.7% over the same quarter. GAP is losing volume faster than the comparison. A regulated tariff can carry a business through a soft year. It cannot carry one through a soft decade, because the tariff itself is periodically reset against the traffic and the committed investment, and the maximum tariffs currently in force were set for the 2025 to 2029 period. Every quarter of falling volume is an input into the next negotiation.

The balance sheet is doing more work than the income statement admits. Cash and equivalents roughly doubled to Ps. 19,773.7 million by 30 June 2026, but that sat against bank loans of Ps. 19,308.1 million and long-term bonds of Ps. 46,359.3 million, for total debt of Ps. 65,667.4 million and net debt of Ps. 45,893.7 million. The group issued Ps. 10,718.0 million of bond certificates during the first half and raised a further Ps. 8,445.1 million to finance the Cross Border Xpress purchase. Over the same six months it declared Ps. 12,376.4 million of dividends and it has guided Ps. 12.0 billion of capital spending for the year, against first-half EBITDA of Ps. 11,954.2 million. Distributions and construction on that scale are not being funded out of operations alone, and the gap is being closed in the bond market.

That matters more than usual for this kind of business, because the capital spending is not optional. Terminal expansion under the development programme is a condition of the concession, not a management choice that can be deferred when traffic disappoints. The obligation to build runs on its own schedule while the passengers do whatever they do.

An ADS holder carries a currency exposure on top of all of it. Revenue, the regulated tariff, the debt and the dividend are all set in Mexican pesos, and every one of those figures is translated before it reaches a dollar account. That translation is a separate bet from the one about airports, and it is not one the operating results can hedge.

If traffic keeps sliding and the next tariff programme is negotiated against a smaller passenger base, then the 44.8% operating margin the business earns today is a high-water mark rather than a run rate. A multiple applied to a shrinking base compresses on its own, without the market ever changing its mind about the quality of the assets.

Valuation

At $216.27 on July 24, 2026, the shares trade on roughly 12.5 times operating profit, and the quote requires operating income to grow 0% a year. For an airport concession midway through a mandated construction programme, that is close to the least a market can ask. The interesting question is not whether the bar is low. It is why.

The methods split in an unusual direction here. The cash-flow lenses put the price about 38% below where those methods land, the only family that reads the quote as inexpensive. Peer multiples sit nearest to it, with the price about 16% above where those methods land. The distance widens sharply on the static lenses: about 92% above where the earnings-power methods land, and about 133% above where the asset-value methods land.

That spread says as much about the lenses as about the price. Book value is a poor description of a concession operator that has been distributing cash and borrowing against a licence rather than accumulating equity, so an asset-value read is measuring something this business does not do. The earnings-power lens normalises against a multi-year average of operating profit, a window that still contains the period when these terminals were close to empty. The forward-looking approaches, which credit the tariff schedule and the commercial build, are the ones that reach the quote. Whether they are right is a question about the next tariff reset rather than a question about arithmetic.

The operating economics are genuinely unusual. Income from operations rose 8.9% to Ps. 4,985.9 million and net income rose 9.0% to Ps. 2,893.5 million in a quarter when the airports handled 14,987.7 thousand passengers, 5.6% fewer than a year earlier. On total revenue including construction the business converts about 44.8% into operating profit. Strip the construction line out, as the company does when it reports its EBITDA margin, and the underlying figure is far higher.

The balance sheet is where the caution belongs, and it is not a small caution. Net debt stood at Ps. 45,893.7 million at 30 June 2026, roughly 1.9 times annualised first-half EBITDA of Ps. 11,954.2 million, after the group raised Ps. 10,718.0 million of bond certificates and a further Ps. 8,445.1 million for the Cross Border Xpress acquisition. Set against Ps. 12,376.4 million of dividends declared in the same half and Ps. 12.0 billion of guided capital spending, this is a leveraged concession returning cash to owners while it is still building. It works while the tariff holds. It becomes uncomfortable quickly if the tariff or the traffic moves the wrong way, because neither the construction schedule nor the coupon adjusts to accommodate a weak year.

Catalysts

The monthly traffic release is the fastest signal available on this name. GAP publishes passenger figures every month, and the 2026 guidance range of -3% to 0% will be confirmed or broken there long before it shows up in a quarterly income statement. Second-quarter traffic was already down 5.6%, which leaves the second half of the year to make up the whole of the difference.

The third-quarter report, due in October, carries the first full quarter of Cross Border Xpress inside the group. The May and June stub produced Ps. 468.1 million of revenue at a 67.5% EBITDA margin, and a clean three-month contribution will show how much of the non-aeronautical growth is the bridge and how much is the underlying commercial business. The same report tests the rest of the 2026 frame: total revenue growth of 7% to 10%, EBITDA growth of 10% to 12%, a full-year EBITDA margin near 67% and capital spending of Ps. 12.0 billion.

On capital returns, shareholders were asked to approve a dividend of MXN 20.80 per share at the meeting called for 22 April 2026, alongside a renewal of the buyback authorisation. Ps. 12,376.4 million had been declared by the end of June, so the remaining installment schedule is a visible cash event.

The slower clock is the tariff. The maximum tariffs governing the Mexican airports were set for 2025 through 2029, and the traffic being recorded now is part of the record the next programme will be argued from.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• CMBT (CMBT)
• FY2025 20-F: …of crude oil and other petroleum products depends on price, location, size, age, condition, sophistication and the acceptability of the vessel operator to the charterer. Competitors with greater resources could enter and operate larger tanker fleets through consolidations or acquisitions, and may be able to offer…
• FY2025 20-F: …substantial portion of our revenue from a limited number of customers and the loss of anyone of these customers could result in a significant loss of revenues and cash flow; - to a large extent, we depend on spot charterers, and any decreases in spot charter rates in the future may adversely affect our earnings and…
• KNTK (KNTK)
• FY2025 10-K: …may expand or construct gathering systems or other pipeline transportation facilities that would create additional competition for the services the Company would provide to third party customers. In addition, potential third-party customers may develop their own gathering systems or pipeline transportation facilities…
• FY2025 10-K: …condition. The Company's customers may suspend, reduce or terminate their obligations under the Company's commercial agreements with them in certain circumstances, which could have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. The Company has entered into gas…
• ASR (ASR)
• FY2025 20-F: …ITA will exercise its rights in ways that favor the interests of our other stockholders. In particular, Grupo ADO is a Mexican bus company that may directly or indirectly compete with our key airline customers in the Mexican transportation market. Furthermore, the concentration of ownership by Mr. Fernando Chico…
• FY2025 20-F: …companies were eliminated. The non-realized results were also eliminated. The subsidiaries' accounting policies are consistent with the policies adopted by the Company. The Company uses the purchase method to recognize business acquisitions. The consideration for the acquisition of a subsidiary is determined based on…
• AGRO (AGRO)
• FY2025 20-F: We face significant competition across our business segments, which could adversely affect our financial performance. In our Farming business, we face significant competition from other producers in the domestic markets and from foreign producers in our export markets. The commodities market is highly fragmented.…
• FY2025 20-F: …Note 12 of the Consolidated Financial Statements. Competition 73 Table of contents The farming sector is highly fragmented. Although we are one of South America's leading producers, due to the atomized nature of the farming sector, our overall market share in some of the industries in which we participate is…
• AROC (Archrock, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …operations service agreements with our customers at rates sufficient to maintain current revenue and cash flows could be adversely affected by the activities of our competitors. If our competitors substantially increase the resources they devote to the development and marketing of competitive products, equipment or…
• FY2025 10-K: ​ Operations ​ ​ ​ Services ​ ​ ​ Total 2025 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Revenue (1) ​ $ 1,272,081 ​ $ 217,737 ​ $ 1,489,818 Cost of sales, exclusive of depreciation and amortization ​ ​ 343,136 ​ ​ 166,289 ​ ​ 509,425 Adjusted gross margin ​ 928,945 ​ 51,448 ​ 980,393 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 2024 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Revenue (1) ​ $ 980,405 ​ $…
• LFST (LifeStance Health Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …timing of recognition of revenue; • the amount and timing of operating expenses related to the maintenance and expansion of our business, operations and infrastructure, including upfront capital expenditures and other costs related to expanding in existing markets or entering new markets, as well as providing…
• FY2025 10-K: …performance will not be materially adversely affected by new or expanded competition in our market areas. We may acquire existing high-quality centers as part of our long-term business strategy and may acquire other companies or technologies, which could divert our management's attention, result in dilution to our…
• LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …their own education. In Peru, private universities are increasingly providing the capacity to meet growing demand in the higher-education market. Laureate owns three institutions in Peru, with a footprint of 20 campuses. Inter-segment transactions are accounted for in a similar manner as third-party transactions and…
• FY2025 10-K: …by $23.5 million, a 3% increase from 2023. • On an organic constant currency basis, revenue increased by 4% compared to 2023. • Revenues from our Peru segment represented 46% of our consolidated total revenues for 2024 compared to 47% for 2023. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $3.5 million, a 1% decrease from 2023. • On…
• ADUS (Addus HomeCare Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …market share across all of our markets. Other providers, entities and individuals in the communities we serve provide services similar to those we offer. Our competition consists of personal care service providers, home health providers, hospice providers, private caregivers, publicly held companies, privately held…
• FY2025 10-K: In addition, competitors may offer new or enhanced services that we do not provide or be viewed by consumers as a more desirable local alternative. These and other factors could impact our ability to contract with payors on favorable terms, result in pricing pressures, loss of or failure to gain market share or loss…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.