ROLLINS, INC. (ROL): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $36.38, ROLLINS, INC. (ROL) is priced for +15.7% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-08-08.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ROL
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | ROL |
| Company | ROLLINS, INC. |
| Sector / Industry | Industrials |
| Current price | $36.38/sh |
| Composition | Residential revenues 45% / Commercial revenues 33% / Termite and ancillary revenues 21% / Franchise revenues 0% / Other revenues 1% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 5.3% |
| Operating margin today | 18.7% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -13.4pp |
| Implied growth | 15.7% |
| Multiple paid | 25x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 11: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.23σ |
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 68 |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 3.04x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 3.08x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.95x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.12x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $32.49 | 1.12x | yes | FCF base $0.6B, growth 10% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.7%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $40.39 | 0.90x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 22.2x / 24.2x / 26.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $25.11 | 1.45x | yes | P/E 22.48x (blended: static sector reference 18x + trailing (TTM) 33x), scenarios: 18.7x / 22.5x / 26.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 15.66x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $11.95 | 3.04x | yes | BV/sh $2.97, ROE (TTM) 37.2%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $26.02 | 1.40x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $32.58 | 1.12x | yes | Rev $3.9B, growth 10% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.7x / 4.5x / 5.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $13.20 | 2.76x | yes | EPS $1.10, growth 11% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=2.91 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $9.05 | 4.02x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.61B × (1−24%) / WACC 8.7% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $18.76 | 1.94x | yes | BV $2.97 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 37.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $8.58 | 4.24x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.10 × BVPS $2.97) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $16.97 | 2.14x | yes | EBITDA $0.76B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $11.82 | 3.08x | yes | FCF $619.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $10.89 | 3.34x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.58B (FCF $0.62B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $28.71 | 1.27x | yes | EPS $1.10 × (8.5 + 2×11.3%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $2.13 | 17.08x | yes | BV $2.97 × (ROIC 6.3% / WACC 8.7%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $20.39 | 1.78x | yes | Revenue $3.92B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $18.68 | 1.95x | yes | EPS $1.10 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 11.3% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 17.0x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $11.89 | 3.06x | yes | EPS $1.10 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pest and termite control (single reportable segment) | operating | enterprise | 3.8B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $593.9m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 1.07x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 0.81x |
| Interest coverage | 21.8x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.6% |
| Burning cash | no |
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Pest and termite control (single reportable segment) (reported)
- FTDR (Frontdoor, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …discount ( 2 ) Total debt $ 1,173 Note 13. Segments We operate as one operating and reportable segment. The majority of our revenue is generated from home warranty contracts entered into with our customers. The accounting policies applied to our one operating and reportable segment are described in Note 2. Our chief…
- FY2025 10-K: …are being made only in accordance with authorizations of management and directors of the company; and (3) provide reasonable assurance regarding prevention or timely detection of unauthorized acquisition, use, or disposition of the company's assets that could have a material effect on the financial statements.…
- APG (APi Group Corporation)
- FY2025 10-K: …base of installed projects, cross-selling opportunities, and customer relationships to continue to grow inspection, service, and monitoring revenue. 6 Table of Conten t s • Project Revenue Discipline - We also drive organic growth by maintaining disciplined project selection, ensuring we pursue project work that…
- FY2025 10-K: …and Strong Margin and Cash Flow Profile. We believe that, due to our differentiated operating model, diversified services offerings, historically strong organic growth, and disciplined acquisition strategy, we have an attractive financial performance profile. In addition, we support margin expansion by leveraging our…
- ABM (ABM INDUSTRIES INCORPORATED)
- FY2025 10-K: …under the Exchange Act is (1) recorded, processed, summarized, and reported within the time periods specified in the rules and forms of the Securities and Exchange Commission and (2) accumulated and communicated to our management, including our Principal Executive Officer and Principal Financial Officer, to allow…
- FY2025 10-K: …reporting and the preparation of financial statements for external purposes in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A company's internal control over financial reporting includes those policies and procedures that (1) pertain to the maintenance of records that, in reasonable detail, accurately…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.