Enova International, Inc. (ENVA): what the price requires

At today's price, Enova International, Inc. (ENVA) is priced for +4.9% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-19 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ENVA

Headline

FieldValue
TickerENVA
CompanyEnova International, Inc.
Current price$232.77/sh

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin needed7.4%
Operating margin today23.8%
Margin compression implied-16.4pp
Implied growth4.9%
Multiple paid14x operating income

The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 7, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.9pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history-0.79σ
cohort percentile (of 16 peers)19
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value, while asset-based lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset1.74x5expensive
Earnings1.17x4expensive
Relative0.58x4justifies
Growth0.76x2justifies

Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.9%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth——no—
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$681.530.34xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 11.3x / 13.3x / 15.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative ValuationRelative$204.421.14xyesP/E 14.03x (blended: static sector reference 12x + trailing (TTM) 19x), scenarios: 11.4x / 14.0x / 16.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA N/Ax
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$133.981.74xyesBV/sh $53.20, ROE (TTM) 23.3%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$212.321.10xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$196.241.19xyesRev $3.3B, growth 18% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.5x / 1.9x / 2.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$430.150.54xyesEPS $12.29, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.54 (Undervalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$75.563.08xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.53B × (1−19%) / WACC 5.9% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$195.271.19xyesBV $53.20 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 23.3% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$121.291.92xyes√(22.5 × EPS $12.29 × BVPS $53.20) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——no—
FCF YieldEarnings$582.360.40xyesFCF $1857.5M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$396.560.59xyesEPS $12.29 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$24.709.42xyesBV $53.20 × (ROIC 2.7% / WACC 5.9%)
P/Sales SectorRelative$373.590.62xyesRevenue $3.28B × sector P/S 3.0x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$460.870.51xyesEPS $12.29 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings YieldEarnings$132.861.75xyesEPS $12.29 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$4.7b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)7.72x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)6.23x
Interest coverage2.2x
Share count CAGR (buyback)-6.8%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

The market seems to be pricing Enova as a no-growth lender, and the fundamentals say something very different. At $202.45 (June 27, 2026) the inversion implies operating growth of only about 1.2 percent, yet the company just reported net income up 25 percent to $91.1 million, or $3.46 per diluted share, on total revenue up 17 percent and net revenue up 24 percent. The disconnect is the whole thesis: a business growing earnings at a mid-twenties pace, with management guiding adjusted EPS growth of at least 25 percent for 2026, is being valued at a low-double-digit multiple as though the growth is about to stop.

The operating engine backs up the optimism. Total originations rose 33 percent year over year to nearly $2.3 billion, and the loan portfolio grew 28 percent to about $5.3 billion, with the company's filing detailing a combined ending loan balance well above the prior year (ENVA FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-060461). The mix has shifted toward small-business lending, now 70 percent of the portfolio versus 30 percent consumer, which is a higher-quality, larger-balance book than the legacy consumer business. Critically, credit is improving, not deteriorating: the net charge-off ratio fell to 7.6 percent from a year earlier and the net revenue margin held around 60 percent, so the growth is not being bought with looser underwriting. That combination, faster originations and better credit, is the hallmark of a lender executing well.

The capital structure and capital return reinforce the case. Enova has been retiring shares aggressively, shrinking the count about 6.8 percent a year, and the board authorized a new $400 million repurchase program. Trailing return on equity is about 23.3 percent against a 9.3 percent cost of equity, so each dollar retained compounds at well above the cost of capital, and the two-stage excess-return model lands near $212, essentially at the price, on that spread. The pending Grasshopper Bank acquisition, if approved, is expected to add more than 15 percent EPS accretion in year one and access to lower-cost deposit funding. The bull case is a fast-growing, high-return specialty lender trading at a value multiple, where the market is extrapolating a slowdown the numbers do not show.

Bear Case

The bear case is governance and the risks that come with how Enova makes its money. This is a high-cost online lender, and its capital-allocation and compliance history give real reasons for caution. The company has twice entered consent orders with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, was fined for what the regulator called widespread illegal conduct, and has drawn over two thousand consumer complaints centered on incorrect credit reporting, unexpected fees, and collection of debts consumers did not owe. The current strategic move, acquiring Grasshopper Bank for roughly $369 million to become a bank holding company, is exactly the kind of capital-allocation decision that magnifies governance risk: it requires approval from the OCC and the Federal Reserve, it has already drawn formal opposition from consumer advocates, and it ties a high-cost lender's future to a bank charter whose regulators may scrutinize its lending practices closely. If that approval stalls or comes with conditions, a centerpiece of the growth plan is at risk.

The second pressure is credit and regulatory exposure baked into the business model. Enova lends to subprime consumers and small businesses, and its filings make clear it closely monitors proposed legislation that could severely restrict its loan products, noting that some states may not honor its Utah or Virginia choice-of-law structures for installment and line-of-credit accounts (ENVA FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-060461). That means the legal enforceability of part of the loan book depends on state-by-state rules that can change. A net charge-off ratio of 7.6 percent is healthy now, but it is healthy in a still-benign labor market; subprime credit deteriorates fast in a downturn, and the portfolio has grown 28 percent into that risk.

The third issue is the leverage that funds the lending. Net debt is about $4.7 billion against trailing operating income, with interest coverage of only about 2.2 times and just $96 million of liquid assets, because a lender funds its book with borrowed money. That structure works while credit performs and funding markets stay open, but it is fragile if charge-offs rise or if the cost of funding increases. The asset-based methods flag the stretch, with the simple excess-return method near $134 and earnings power value near $86, both below the price, reflecting that the current returns rest on a leveraged, regulatory-exposed model. The buyback at a 6.8 percent annual pace is shareholder-friendly, but buying back stock with debt while expanding a subprime loan book concentrates the bet on benign credit and cooperative regulators. The growth is real; the question is whether the model survives a credit cycle and a regulator that has already labeled the company a repeat offender.

Valuation

Enova is read as a value and asset-supported name: the price is supported by earnings-power, relative-multiple, and growth-DCF value, while the asset frame says expensive. At $202.45 the inversion sits at a degenerate point because the implied operating growth of just 1.2 percent against a current operating margin of 23.6 percent reflects how little growth the price actually requires. For a lender growing earnings 25 percent, an implied growth assumption near zero is the signal that the market is pricing in a sharp deceleration or a credit normalization.

The X-ray supports the value read. The relative-valuation method lands near $175 on a 12 times sector P/E, the discounted-future-market-cap method near $171 on 18 percent tapered revenue growth, and the two-stage excess-return model near $212, essentially at the price, on a 23.3 percent ROE against a 9.3 percent cost of equity. The asset family is more sobering: the simple excess-return method near $134, the Graham number near $121, and earnings power value near $86, all below the price, because they value the book conservatively.

The honest synthesis is that the central methods, relative valuation near $175, discounted future market cap near $171, and the excess-return read near $212, cluster around the current price, which says Enova is roughly fairly valued to modestly cheap on its current earnings power if the growth and credit hold. The deciding variables are not valuation mechanics but credit performance and regulatory outcomes: the Grasshopper approval, the durability of the 7.6 percent charge-off rate, and the legal enforceability of the loan book across states. The earnings-power floor near $86 is what the price would test if credit deteriorates; the relative read near $175 is the anchor if it holds. The multiple is value-shaped because the market discounts the regulatory and credit risk, not the growth.

Catalysts

The first-quarter 2026 report on April 23 was the most recent catalyst and a strong one. Total revenue of $875.14 million rose 17 percent, net income of $91.1 million or $3.46 per diluted share grew 25 percent, originations rose 33 percent to nearly $2.3 billion, the portfolio grew 28 percent to about $5.3 billion, and the net charge-off ratio improved to 7.6 percent. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to originations growth around 20 percent, revenue growth similar to originations, and adjusted EPS growth of at least 25 percent, and completed a buyback tranche under a $400 million authorization. The next print is the test of whether credit stays benign as the book keeps growing.

The dominant catalyst is the Grasshopper Bank acquisition. The roughly $369 million deal to become a bank holding company is expected to close in the second half of 2026, pending OCC and Federal Reserve approval, and management projects more than 15 percent EPS accretion in year one and more than 25 percent once synergies fully realize, plus access to lower-cost deposit funding. The risk is that the deal draws regulatory and public opposition given Enova's CFPB history of consent orders and a fine for widespread illegal conduct, so approval timing and conditions are the key swing factor. Other catalysts to watch are charge-off trends as a read on subprime credit health, state-level legislative changes affecting loan-product enforceability, and the buyback pace. Analyst sentiment is constructive, with a buy-leaning consensus and targets in the $190 to $210 range.

Sources: PRNewswire ENVA Q1 2026 results, StockTitan Grasshopper acquisition, American Banker bank-buy backlash, CFPB repeat-offender fine.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Enova (consolidated online financial services) (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive ENVA report on boothcheck