AMERICAN EXPRESS CO
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $333.31, AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) is priced for 50.0% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. The narrative was composed July 25, 2026 from SEC EDGAR filings.
• One number decides this company more than any other, and it is not spend growth: the share of card balances that never comes back, running at a 2.0% net write-off rate in the second quarter of 2026, which is what allows a lender to be valued like a payments network. [Source: Q2 2026 earnings release, July 24, 2026] • The cost of holding the customer is rising, and the annual report says so plainly: ⟦The amount we pay to our cobrand partners has increased, particularly in the United States, and
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2,824 institutional managers reported holding AXP in 13F filings for the quarter ended 2026-03-31. Together they hold about 81% of the company; the top 10 hold 48%. 138 opened new positions that quarter. Held by Berkshire Hathaway, Vanguard Group, BlackRock, among others. On the short side, 12.1M shares were sold short as of the 2026-06-15 count, about 2% of shares outstanding (4.5 days of typical volume to cover).
Quarterly 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter end, so the picture is never current (filed through 2026-05-29). Nothing here is investment advice.
AXP has cut its share count 14.5% over the past five years, spending $27.15B on repurchases. It pays a dividend, and has paid one every year in our records (18 and counting), raised 4 years straight; the current rate is $3.28 a share annually. Cash returned over the past three years: $5.77B in dividends and $16.05B in repurchases.
Share counts are split-adjusted; repurchase totals are gross of share issuance. Nothing here is investment advice.
Open-market insider buys at AXP over the trailing three years: 2023: 6 buys totaling $147k; 2024: 1 buy totaling $0k; 2025: 2 buys totaling $999k. 19 officers and directors are on file.
Code P open-market purchases from SEC Form 4 filings, non-derivative, excluding scheduled 10b5-1 plans. Nothing here is investment advice.
AXP's recent reports: the day-one move, then what the following quarter actually did.
| report | day one | next quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-26 | -3.9% | -10.6% |
| 2023-10-21 | -5.4% | +31.1% |
| 2024-02-10 | +7.1% | +2.7% |
| 2024-04-20 | +6.2% | -0.3% |
Day-one is the close-to-close move around the filing. Nothing here is investment advice.
AXP's latest 8-K filings: 2026-08-17 (items 7.01); 2026-08-12 (items 3.03, 5.03, 8.01, 9.01); 2026-08-05 (items 8.01); 2026-07-24 (items 2.02, 7.01, 9.01); 2026-07-15 (items 7.01).
Item codes are the SEC's own classification of what each report discloses. Dates link to the filing on EDGAR. Nothing here is investment advice.
Model solve date: 2026-Q2
Narrative composed: July 25, 2026
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For informational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. boothcheck is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.