Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $90.55, Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~12.0 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SPB

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 14.3% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.3 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~16.3%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value, while asset-based lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Spectrum Brands has shrunk its share count roughly 13% a year for four years while paying a $0.47 quarterly dividend, an equity-retirement pace almost no consumer company matches, funded by pet care and home-and-garden brands sold through mass retail.
• The concentrated risk is a leveraged, tariff-exposed cost structure: many U.S. products are "manufactured in or sourced from China" and tariffs have "required us to increase prices to our customers" or lowered gross margin [FY2025 10-K, accession 0000109177-25-000043], against $560 million of net debt at about 4.3 times trailing operating income and interest coverage of 4.3 times.
• Watch the Home and Personal Care separation: the May 2026 Oaktree investment of $127 million values HPC at about six times trailing EBITDA and is designed to move the declining segment off the parent.

Bull Case

The most surprising number in the Spectrum Brands data is not on the income statement. The share count has fallen about 13% per year for four consecutive years. Compounded, that means the company has retired roughly two-fifths of itself, and it kept going through fiscal 2026: 0.6 million shares repurchased for $36 million in the December quarter, followed by a fresh $300 million authorization on top of a $0.47 quarterly dividend. For a $1.9 billion market cap, a $300 million authorization is material in a way megacap buybacks never are; each completed tranche mechanically concentrates the remaining owners in the pet, garden, and appliance brands underneath.

What the owners are being concentrated into is improving where it counts. Global Pet Care, the crown jewel, returned to growth in fiscal 2026, and the second quarter showed the mix working: net sales rose 4.9%, net income from continuing operations was $22.5 million against $1.8 million a year earlier, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 40 basis points despite tariffs, and management raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to low-to-mid single digit growth. Pet food and aquatics are replenishment categories with resilient demand, and the segment has structural insulation the filing spells out: GPC has "major suppliers outside of China, which has allowed it to move production more swiftly to alternative supply" [FY2025 10-K, accession 0000109177-25-000043].

The last piece is addition by subtraction. Home and Personal Care, the segment that has dragged organic sales down double digits, is being carved out: Oaktree invested $127 million in May 2026, split between preferred equity and a first-lien term loan, nonrecourse to the parent, valuing HPC at about six times trailing EBITDA and explicitly advancing the planned separation. A Spectrum Brands without HPC is a higher-margin, less tariff-exposed pet and garden company, and the market currently prices the whole at a discount to what the earnings-based and peer-multiple lenses would defend. Shrinking the share count while the worst segment exits is a two-sided squeeze on the per-share value.

Bear Case

Name the structural truth first: this stock is cheap because parts of the business are deteriorating, and cheap-because-deteriorating is a category, not a bargain. Home and Personal Care sales fell 5.5% in the March quarter with organic sales down 10.7% on category softness in North America and Europe, running six-month organic declines near 11%, and the December quarter opened the year with adjusted EBITDA down 19.5%. The Oaktree transaction that bulls read as a catalyst also functions as a price disclosure: a sophisticated buyer sized HPC at about six times trailing EBITDA, a multiple that says structurally challenged, and took first-lien and preferred positions rather than common equity.

The cost base is hostage to trade policy. The 10-K is unusually direct: products sold in the U.S. are "manufactured in or sourced from China" in large part, tariffs have "required us to increase prices to our customers" or "resulted in lowering our gross margin on products sold", and after the April 2025 tariff escalation the company "temporarily paused virtually all finished goods imports out of China" [FY2025 10-K, accession 0000109177-25-000043]. A consumer company that pauses its own supply chain to dodge tariff rates is managing policy volatility in real time, with the retail shelf as the penalty for guessing wrong. Distribution is concentrated too: in pet care, Amazon and Walmart represented approximately 34% of segment sales in fiscal 2025 [FY2025 10-K, accession 0000109177-25-000043], and the Tristar litigation reminds that HPC acquisitions have already produced "damages and losses incurred by the HPC segment" with "no guarantees and assurances that recoveries" arrive [FY2025 10-K, accession 0000109177-25-000043].

Under all of it sits leverage that makes the buyback double-edged. Net debt of $560 million runs about 4.3 times trailing operating income with interest coverage of 4.3 times, thin for a business whose EBITDA fell double digits two quarters ago. Retiring 13% of the share count annually is management conviction, but it is also cash leaving a leveraged balance sheet during a tariff war. And the price is less forgiving than the headline multiples suggest: worked through at the demanding cost of capital this profile commands, today's price embeds operating growth persisting near its feasible ceiling for a couple of decades, a persistence only about 15% of comparable fast-growers have sustained even ten years. If pet care growth stalls or the HPC separation stumbles, the deteriorating pieces set the multiple, not the improving ones.

Valuation

Two honest readings of this price disagree, and the disagreement is the analysis. On the static lenses the stock looks modestly cheap: the price sits about 20 to 26% below where earnings-power, peer-multiple, and cash-flow arithmetic land. On the discounted-growth solve it looks demanding: at roughly 20 times trailing operating income and the high cost of capital this equity's volatility commands (about 18%), the price implies operating growth held near its self-funding ceiling for something like 24 years, a figure to hold loosely since each point of discount rate moves that horizon by years. The bridge between the readings is risk: the multiple lenses price the earnings as they are; the growth solve charges heavily for how uncertain those earnings have proven, with trailing operating income around $131 million on the EDGAR quarterly basis (a separate record basis reads about a quarter higher; the two are different measurement bases, both labeled here).

The asset lens dissents in the other direction, with the price about 70% above book-value-based arithmetic, which is the ordinary signature of a brands business: the value lives in Global Pet Care trademarks and shelf positions, not in plant. Sector sales multiples read the stock at about a quarter of the sector's norm, which mostly measures how differently the market treats appliance-adjacent revenue versus staples revenue. The pattern overall is a value read resting on earnings durability, with the HPC separation as the event that would re-sort which peer set the remaining company gets compared against; the Oaktree mark of about six times trailing EBITDA for HPC gives the market a hard external reference for the piece being removed.

The balance sheet is the constraint on the whole construction. Net debt of $560 million is about 4.3 times trailing operating income (roughly 7 times after-tax), interest coverage is 4.3 times, the company is not burning cash, and the share count is down 13.1% a year over four years. Fiscal 2026 guidance calls for flat to low-single-digit sales growth with about 50% of adjusted EBITDA converting to adjusted free cash flow; that conversion funds the dividend and buyback only while EBITDA holds. The price needs the pet-and-garden core to keep growing through the tariff regime the 10-K describes, in which tariffs have already "resulted in lowering our gross margin on products sold" [FY2025 10-K, accession 0000109177-25-000043].

Catalysts

The separation of Home and Personal Care is the live event. In May 2026 Oaktree agreed to invest $127 million in the HPC business, split between preferred equity and a first-lien term loan, nonrecourse to Spectrum Brands, valuing the segment at about six times trailing EBITDA and explicitly funding the standalone path. Completion mechanics, timing, and what the remaining pet-and-garden company retains are the items each subsequent print should clarify.

The operating trajectory improved through the first half. After a soft December quarter (net sales $677 million, down 3.3%; adjusted EBITDA $62.6 million, down 19.5%), the March quarter delivered 4.9% sales growth, 1.5% organic, net income from continuing operations of $22.5 million versus $1.8 million a year earlier, and a raised full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook of low-to-mid single digit growth on pet care and home-and-garden strength. The fiscal Q3 print (summer 2026) tests whether the raise survives peak home-and-garden season and the current tariff schedule.

Capital returns continue on their aggressive cadence: a $300 million repurchase authorization approved in February against a $1.9 billion market cap, plus the $0.47 quarterly dividend. The pace of buyback execution each quarter, read against the leverage the balance sheet already carries, is the cleanest tell on how management weighs equity concentration against debt reduction.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Global Pet Care (reported)

• CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company)
• FY2025 10-K: …United States, enabling us to serve both mass-market customers and independent pet specialty retail stores. This network supports traditional brick-and-mortar outlets as well as increasingly omnichannel and online-only retailers. Our integrated logistics system also consolidates products from other manufacturers with…
• FY2025 10-K: …omnichannel capabilities to remain competitive, while independent stores face pressure from these larger more versatile rivals. Long-Term Pet Industry Characteristics We expect the U.S. pet supplies market to continue to grow, supported by long-term trends, including demographics shifts, humanization and…
• FRPT (FRESHPET, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …switching in order to avoid disrupting the pet's diet, resulting in high repeat purchasing behavior. As a result, we believe that as consumers try fresh, refrigerated pet food, they are likely to become repeat users of the product. Our Opportunity Freshpet has an opportunity to capture market share in this large and…
• FY2025 10-K: …nutrition and veterinary nutritionists. Our team often identifies pet parents' needs by evaluating emerging demand trends in both pet food and human food. New products are refined iteratively with the help of consumer panel data to arrive at products that we believe can be commercially successful. The success of our…
• ELAN (Elanco Animal Health Incorporated)
• FY2025 10-K: Table of Contents International Operations Our operations are conducted globally. The U.S. is our largest market, accounting for 47% of our total revenue in 2025. By total revenue, Brazil, the United Kingdom (U.K.) and China are our largest markets outside the U.S. Our reported revenue by geographic region was as…
• FY2025 10-K: …90 countries and serves animals across many species, primarily: dogs and cats (collectively, pet health) and cattle, poultry, swine and sheep (collectively, farm animal). Our purpose - making life better for animals makes life better - inspires us to Go Beyond for animals, our customers, our people and society. Go…
• PAHC (Phibro Animal Health Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …® joint care supplement for dogs continues to gain customer acceptance. Our companion animal development pipeline includes a potential treatment for mitral valve disease in dogs, a novel pain management product, and two oral care formulations. Animal Health net sales by product group and regions were: ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​…
• FY2025 10-K: …veterinarians and consumers who raise and care for farm and companion animals by providing solutions to help them maintain and enhance the health of their animals. We market approximately 800 product lines in approximately 90 countries to approximately 4,500 customers. We develop, manufacture and market a broad range…

Home & Garden (reported)

• SMG (Scotts Miracle-Gro Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …States. Hawthorne consists of our indoor and hydroponic gardening business. Other primarily consists of our consumer lawn and garden business in Canada. Corporate consists of general and administrative expenses and certain other income and expense items not allocated to the operating segments. See "SEGMENT RESULTS"…
• FY2025 10-K: …The Home Depot and Lowe's are our two largest customers and are the only customers that individually represent more than 10% of reported consolidated net sales during any of the three most recent fiscal years. For additional details regarding significant customers, see "ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS - Risks Related to Our…
• WDFC (WD-40 COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …the Marksman ® Spout to deliver precise application to small mechanisms and assemblies, tool maintenance and threads on screws and bolts. 3-IN-ONE Oil is the market share leader among drip oils in many countries. It also has wide industrial applications in such areas as locksmithing, HVAC, marine, farming and…
• FY2025 10-K: …Americas segment: 2000 Flushes ® - The 2000 Flushes brand is a line of long-lasting automatic toilet bowl cleaners. It includes a variety of formulas, including the Bleach and Blue plus Bleach that has a unique EPA-approved "kills bacteria" claim. 2000 Flushes is sold primarily in the U.S. and Canada through grocery…
• CTVA (CTVA)
• FY2025 10-K: …product line and geographic region (based on customer location) are as follows: Products and Brands The Seed segment's major brands and technologies, by key product line, are listed below: Seed Solutions Brands Pioneer ® seeds; Brevant ® seeds; Dairyland Seed ® ; Hoegemeyer ® hybrids; Nutech ® seed; Seed Consultants…
• FY2025 10-K: ; PREMIUM; APROACH POWER ® ; VIOVAN ® ; TALENDO™; VERBEN ® ; EQUATION PRO ® ; EQUATION CONTACT ® ; CURZATE™; TANOS ® ; BIM® MAX; FONTELIS™; ACANTO® PLUS; GALILEO ® ; UNIVOQ® Weed Control ARYLEX ® ; ENLIST® weed control system; ENLIST ONE™; RINSKOR™; KERB ® ; QUELEX™; BELKAR®; PACTO®; LOYANT™; GRAZONNEXT® HL; PAXEO®;…
• FMC (FMC CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …environmentally compatible and sustainable solutions that can effectively increase farmers' yields and provide alternatives to products which may be prone to resistance. We are committed to providing unique, differentiated products to our customers by acquiring and further developing technologies as well as investing…
• FY2025 10-K: …We believe that FMC has one of the most productive crop protection pipelines in agriculture. The pipeline is highly valuable because it is biased toward new modes of action. The current R&D pipeline features 16 new active areas in discovery and 19 new active ingredients in development. The growth portfolio includes…
• CLX (CLOROX CO /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …the United States. Products within this segment include bags and wraps under the Glad brand; cat litter primarily under the Fresh Step and Scoop Away brands; and grilling products under the Kingsford brand. • Lifestyle consists of food, water-filtration and natural personal care products marketed and sold in the…
• FY2025 10-K: …Despite these headwinds, in fiscal year 2025 the Company delivered organic sales and earnings growth while advancing its goals to build a stronger, more resilient company. While net sales were 1 Table of Contents essentially flat in fiscal year 2025, the Company grew overall market share while also expanding gross…
• CHD (CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …us to devote greater focus to our portfolio's faster growing value and premium product lines. Consumer Domestic Our founders first marketed sodium bicarbonate, otherwise known as baking soda, in 1846 for use in home baking. Today, this product has a wide variety of uses in the home, including as a refrigerator and…
• FY2025 10-K: …in a reportable segment. Commercial & Professional We also provide a line of cleaning and deodorizing products for use in commercial and industrial applications such as office buildings, hotels, restaurants and other facilities. 6 COMPETITION We compete in the household and personal care consumer product categories,…

Home & Personal Care (reported)

• ENR (ENERGIZER HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and the Varta brand in Latin America and Asia Pacific. These products include primary, rechargeable, specialty and hearing aid batteries and are offered in the performance, premium and price segments. In addition, we offer auto care products in the appearance, fragrance, performance and air conditioning recharge…
• FY2025 10-K: …trade names are the property of their respective owners. Unless indicated otherwise, the information concerning our industry contained in this Annual Report is based on Energizer's general knowledge of and expectations concerning the industry. Energizer's market position, market share and industry market size are…
• CHD (CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …us to devote greater focus to our portfolio's faster growing value and premium product lines. Consumer Domestic Our founders first marketed sodium bicarbonate, otherwise known as baking soda, in 1846 for use in home baking. Today, this product has a wide variety of uses in the home, including as a refrigerator and…
• FY2025 10-K: …in a reportable segment. Commercial & Professional We also provide a line of cleaning and deodorizing products for use in commercial and industrial applications such as office buildings, hotels, restaurants and other facilities. 6 COMPETITION We compete in the household and personal care consumer product categories,…
• CLX (CLOROX CO /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …the United States. Products within this segment include bags and wraps under the Glad brand; cat litter primarily under the Fresh Step and Scoop Away brands; and grilling products under the Kingsford brand. • Lifestyle consists of food, water-filtration and natural personal care products marketed and sold in the…
• FY2025 10-K: …Despite these headwinds, in fiscal year 2025 the Company delivered organic sales and earnings growth while advancing its goals to build a stronger, more resilient company. While net sales were 1 Table of Contents essentially flat in fiscal year 2025, the Company grew overall market share while also expanding gross…
• CL (COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …dishwashing liquids, Ajax, Fabuloso and Murphy household cleaners and Suavitel, Soupline, Fluffy and Cuddly fabric conditioners. Sales of Oral, Personal and Home Care products accounted for 44%, 17% and 16%, respectively, of our total worldwide Net sales in 2025. Geographically, Oral Care is a substantial part of our…
• FY2025 10-K: …for Oral, Personal and Home Care were $ 3,640 in 2024. (2) Net sales in the United States for Pet Nutrition were $ 3,059 in 2024. (3) Refer to Note 17, Supplemental Income Statement for information related to Other (income) expense, net. 114 COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements…
• CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company)
• FY2025 10-K: …omnichannel capabilities to remain competitive, while independent stores face pressure from these larger more versatile rivals. Long-Term Pet Industry Characteristics We expect the U.S. pet supplies market to continue to grow, supported by long-term trends, including demographics shifts, humanization and…
• FY2025 10-K: …United States, enabling us to serve both mass-market customers and independent pet specialty retail stores. This network supports traditional brick-and-mortar outlets as well as increasingly omnichannel and online-only retailers. Our integrated logistics system also consolidates products from other manufacturers with…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.