NEWMONT CORPORATION (NEM): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $127.47, NEWMONT CORPORATION (NEM) is priced for -4.8% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-03.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/NEM

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 7: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: n/a

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=12)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Newmont is the largest gold miner, with revenue split between gold dore at about 63% and concentrate and other metals at 37%. The balance sheet tells the story of the moment: net cash of about $3.7 billion, a 50.8% operating margin, and a return on invested capital above 33%, all riding a record gold-price environment.

At $103.80 (as of June 27, 2026) the price pays only about 9x company-wide operating income, a multiple so low it sits below what even a 5%-per-year operating-profit decline would warrant. Every valuation family supports the price; this reads as a value and asset-supported name, not a growth bet.

The catch is what a 9x multiple on peak margins implies: the market is pricing in eventual mean reversion in the gold price and in the unusually fat margins it produces. Management is leaning the other way, doubling its buyback with a new $6.0 billion authorization after a record free-cash-flow quarter.

Bull Case

The balance sheet is where the bull case begins, because it reveals what management thinks of its own business. Newmont holds about $3.7 billion of net cash and just posted an all-time record quarter for free cash flow at $3.1 billion, and it responded by doubling its share-repurchase program with an additional $6.0 billion authorization after fully executing the prior one, while maintaining its dividend at $0.26 per share. A company that can fund a buyback of that size out of current cash flow, carry net cash, and keep paying a dividend is signaling confidence that the cash generation is durable, not a one-quarter fluke. That is the clearest read on management's own view of value.

The operating results justify the confidence. Q1 2026 net income was $3.3 billion, adjusted EPS was $2.90, and adjusted EBITDA reached $5.2 billion, on production of 1.3 million attributable gold ounces plus silver and copper by-products. Crucially, all-in sustaining cost came in at $1,029 per ounce on a by-product basis, below full-year guidance, so Newmont is producing gold at a wide spread to the prevailing price. A 50.8% operating margin and a 33% return on invested capital are the financial expression of that spread, and they are why every valuation family supports the price.

The valuation gives the bull a low entry bar. At roughly 9x operating income the price sits below what even a modest operating-profit decline would warrant, which means the market is already discounting a softer future. If the gold price merely holds, Newmont throws off enormous cash that flows to buybacks and dividends, shrinking the share count and lifting per-share value without needing any growth. The reserve base supports continuity, with the company directing exploration to discover new resources and convert them into proven and probable reserves around its existing mines (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001164727-26-000010). A cash-rich, low-cost producer at a single-digit multiple, returning capital aggressively, is the value-and-asset-supported setup the methods describe.

Bear Case

The structural truth a Newmont holder would rather not face is that the cheap multiple is not a gift, it is the market pricing in gold-price mean reversion. The 50.8% operating margin and the record free cash flow exist because gold is near record levels, and a 9x multiple on those peak earnings is the market's way of saying it does not believe they last. Newmont does not control the price of its product; its economics are a leveraged play on a commodity that moves with real interest rates, the dollar, and safe-haven demand. If gold retreats, the same low-cost production that looks so profitable today compresses fast, and the multiple that seems cheap is suddenly applied to a much smaller earnings base.

The cost trajectory underlines the risk. While Q1 all-in sustaining cost was a strong $1,029 per ounce, the company's own full-year 2026 AISC guidance is $1,680 per ounce, up from a 2025 actual of $1,339, driven by lower production volumes and higher sustaining capital. Costs rising while volumes are guided flat at 5.3 million ounces means the margin tailwind is at least partly cyclical and partly eroding on the cost side, independent of where gold trades. Mining is a business of depleting assets that must be continually replaced through capital-intensive exploration and development, and rising sustaining capital is the recurring tax on that reality.

The valuation offers less protection than it appears. Yes, every family supports the current price, but they support it using earnings inflated by the gold cycle. The honest framing is that Newmont is cheap on peak earnings and would not look cheap on normalized ones. The aggressive buyback is a double-edged tool: repurchasing shares at a high gold price commits capital at a moment when the underlying earnings may be unsustainable, and if the price later falls, those buybacks will look like they were done at the top. The bear case is not distress, the balance sheet is strong, it is that a commodity producer at peak margins is a value trap in waiting if you mistake cyclical earnings for durable ones.

Valuation

At the current price the market is paying about 9x company-wide operating income, a multiple so low that the price sits below what even a 5%-per-year operating-profit decline would warrant. That is a bound, not a solved point: computed at a cost of capital near 8.6% with 4% terminal growth, the price does not require growth, only that operating profit not fall faster than a modest decline. On its face that is an undemanding bar.

The family pattern is unusual in its breadth of support. The asset-based, earnings-power, peer-multiple, and growth-DCF methods all land at or above the price, and none flags the stock as expensive, which is why the read is value and asset-supported rather than a growth bet. The reverse-DCF range centers at the current price with an acceptable reliability flag. On the numbers as they stand, Newmont looks inexpensive.

The essential caveat is what those numbers are built on. The current 50.8% operating margin and the implied terminal margin reflect a record gold-price environment, so the cheap multiple is cheap relative to peak earnings. Normalize the gold price and the margins toward a mid-cycle level and the same price would imply a higher multiple on lower profit. The valuation is genuinely attractive if gold holds or rises, because the cash flow and capital returns compound from there; it is a mirage if the commodity reverts, because the methods are all anchored to cyclically elevated earnings. The judgment is less about the multiple and more about the gold price you are willing to underwrite.

Catalysts

The most recent print, Q1 2026 (reported late April 2026), was a record: net income of $3.3 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.90, adjusted EBITDA of $5.2 billion, and an all-time quarterly free-cash-flow record of $3.1 billion. Production was 1.3 million attributable gold ounces with silver and copper by-products, and gold all-in sustaining cost was $1,029 per ounce by-product, below full-year guidance. The headline action was doubling the buyback with a new $6.0 billion authorization, alongside a maintained $0.26 dividend.

The forward catalysts are production cadence and cost. Full-year gold production guidance is maintained at 5.3 million ounces, with management expecting slightly lower output in Q2 before volumes improve in the second half, and full-year by-product AISC guided to $1,680 per ounce, up from the 2025 actual on lower volumes and higher sustaining capital. The buyback pace and any portfolio divestitures are the capital-allocation catalysts to watch.

The dominant external catalyst is the gold price itself, which drives margins, cash flow, and the pace of capital return. The watch items are the gold price, the AISC trajectory against the raised guidance, production volumes hitting the 5.3 million-ounce target, and reserve replacement. Sustained gold prices with on-plan production would let the capital-return story compound; a pullback in gold or a cost overrun would expose the cyclicality behind the cheap multiple. Sources: Newmont Q1 2026 results and guidance (newmont.com; stocktitan.net; investing.com; fool.com), April 2026.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Lihir / Cadia +10 more (reported)

• B (BARRICK MINING CORP)
• FY2025 40-F: …the registrant was required to submit such files). Yes x No ¨ Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. Emerging growth company ¨ If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S. GAAP, indicate…
• FY2025 40-F: 99.8 Consent of Richard Peattie 99.9 Consent of Peter Jones 99.10 Consent of Joel Holliday 99.11 Certification of Mark Hill required by Rule 13a-14(a) or Rule 15d-14(a), pursuant to Section 302 of Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 99.12 Certification of Graham Shuttleworth required by Rule 13a-14(a) or Rule 15d-14(a),…
• KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP)
• FY2025 40-F: …report on Form 40-F, include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to our guidance for production, cost guidance, including production costs of sales, all-in sustaining cost of sales, and capital expenditures; anticipated returns of capital to shareholders, including the declaration, payment, increase and…
• FY2025 40-F: . Emerging Growth Company ☐ If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S. GAAP, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards† provided pursuant to…
• GFI (Gold Fields Limited)
• FY2025 20-F: …or reissued subsequently, the amount received is recognised as an increase in equity, and the resulting surplus or deficit on the transaction is presented in share premium. 12. Revenue from contracts with customers The Group recognises revenue when control over its gold, copper and silver is transferred to the…
• FY2025 20-F: …plant. Introduction Gruyere is a production stage property comprising one open pit and Mineral Reserve stockpiles. The Gruyere deposit is located within the Yamarna Terrane of the eastern Yilgarn, Western Australia (latitude 27º59'04"S and longitude 123º50'43"E or GDA94 / MGA Zone 51 co-ordinates 583,115E and…
• PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.)
• FY2025 40-F: …gold, zinc, lead and copper, for which there exists an active and freely traded commodity market such as the London Metals Exchange and the value of product sold by the Company is directly linked to the form in which it is traded on that market. Sales revenue is commonly subject to adjustments based on an inspection…
• FY2025 40-F: …Inventories of ore are sampled for metal content and are valued based on the lower of cost or estimated net realizable value ("NRV") based upon the period ending prices of contained metal. Cost is determined on a weighted average basis or using a first-in-first-out basis and includes all costs incurred in the normal…
• HMY (HARMONY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED)
• FY2025 20-F: …ore from the HVK and Hamata deposits. Crushed ore is conveyed from the HVK pit via a 4.5km long overland pipe conveyor. Tailings are stored in TSF1 located to the southwest of the process plant. Dam-wall construction of the TSF is ongoing and largely constitutes placement of suitable oxide and fresh competent…
• FY2025 20-F: …and/or quality are computed from the results of detailed sampling; and (ii) the sites for inspection, sampling and measurement are spaced so closely and the geologic character is so well defined that size, shape, depth and mineral content of reserves are well-established. Pyrite : a brassy-coloured mineral of iron…
• AGI (ALAMOS GOLD INC.)
• FY2025 40-F: …Company Accounting Oversight Board (United States) (PCAOB), the consolidated statements of financial position of the Company as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, the related consolidated statements of comprehensive income, changes in equity, and cash flows for each of the years then ended, and the related notes…
• FY2025 40-F: …as the basis for amortizing certain mineral property, plant and equipment. The physical life of these assets, and related components, may differ from the Company's estimate, which would impact amortization expense. Plant and equipment not depleted on a unit of production basis based on recoverable ounces are depleted…
• FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …2,204.62 pounds. Mill stockpile. Millable ore that has been mined, and is available for future processing. Mineralization. The process by which a mineral is introduced into a rock, resulting in concentration of minerals that may form a valuable or potentially valuable deposit. Molybdenite. A black, platy, disulfide…
• FY2025 10-K: …unit is the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one pound of water by one degree Fahrenheit. Brochantite. A greenish-black copper mineral occurring in the oxidation zone of copper sulfide deposits. Cathode. Refined copper produced by electro-refining of impure copper or by electrowinning. Chalcocite.…
• SCCO (SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …contract to be a single performance obligation, represented by the delivery of a series of distinct goods that are substantially the same, with the same pattern of transfer to the Company's customers. The Company concluded this as, based on the nature of its contracts, customers receive the benefit of mineral sold as…
• FY2025 10-K: …located between 30°19' and 30°20' N, and between 109°38' and 109°37'47'' W, at elevations ranging between 1,400 to 1,460 meters above mean sea level. It is about 6 kilometers from the La Caridad mining unit and 22 kilometers from the town of Nacozari. ​ The mining claims held by Pilares cover an area of about 143.3…

NGM (Nevada Gold Mines, non-managed) (reported)

• AEM (AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED)
• FY2025 40-F: For a reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable financial information presented in the consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with IFRS, and for an explanation of how management uses these measures and why management believes them to be useful to investors, please see the…
• FY2025 40-F: …are incurred by the Company; ● estimates of future capital expenditures, exploration expenditures, development expenditures and other cash needs, and expectations as to the funding thereof; ● estimated timing and conclusions of studies, analyses and evaluations undertaken by the Company or others; ● statements…
• KGC (KINROSS GOLD CORP)
• FY2025 40-F: …report on Form 40-F, include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to our guidance for production, cost guidance, including production costs of sales, all-in sustaining cost of sales, and capital expenditures; anticipated returns of capital to shareholders, including the declaration, payment, increase and…
• FY2025 40-F: . Emerging Growth Company ☐ If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S. GAAP, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards† provided pursuant to…
• AU (AU)
• FY2025 20-F: …within Nevada Regional Deposits are wholly-owned and managed by AngloGold Ashanti. The Bullfrog, Mother Lode and Crown Block (SNA, Secret Pass and Daisy) deposits are in an exploration stage with no Mineral Reserve having been declared. Reward is a development stage property with a disclosed Mineral Reserve at a…
• FY2025 20-F: (covering approximately 156,000 acres) in the vicinity of Beatty, Nevada, which cover a number of different projects and deposits, including the Arthur Gold project (previously the Expanded Silicon project), the North Bullfrog project, the Mother Lode project, the Sterling mine, and the Reward project (the latter…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.