KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (KMB): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $109.53, KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION (KMB) is priced for -3.3% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-27.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/KMB
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | KMB |
| Company | KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION |
| Current price | $109.53/sh |
| Composition | Baby and Child Care 41% / Family Care 25% / Professional 11% / Adult Care 12% / Feminine Care 10% / All Other 1% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 6.8% |
| Operating margin today | 14.9% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -8.1pp |
| Implied growth | -3.3% |
| Multiple paid | 17x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage (computed at the 7% minimum rate; the CAPM rate 6.9% sits below it).
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.18σ |
| cohort percentile (of 78 peers) | 50 |
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.59x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.77x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | — | 0 | — |
| Growth | 1.69x | 4 | expensive |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=13)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $60.94 | 1.80x | yes | FCF base $1.8B, growth 0% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.5%, WACC 9.2%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $95.58 | 1.15x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 12.4x / 14.4x / 16.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 14x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 11.8x / 14.0x / 16.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 9.92x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $58.09 | 1.89x | yes | Stage 1: -6% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $69.01 | 1.59x | yes | BV/sh $5.41, ROE (TTM) 118.0%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $639.75 | 0.17x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $68.96 | 1.59x | yes | Rev $16.6B, growth 0% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.9x / 2.2x / 2.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $64.44 | 1.70x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $2.57B × (1−21%) / WACC 9.2% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $117.27 | 0.93x | yes | BV $5.41 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 118.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $27.85 | 3.93x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $6.37 × BVPS $5.41) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $2.53B × sector EV/EBITDA 8.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $59.63 | 1.84x | yes | FCF $1837.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $55.36 | 1.98x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $1.71B (FCF $1.84B − SBC $0.13B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $5.34 | 20.51x | yes | EPS $6.37 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $18.73 | 5.85x | yes | BV $5.41 × (ROIC 31.9% / WACC 9.2%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $16.56B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $68.86 | 1.59x | yes | EPS $6.37 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America (NA) | operating | enterprise | $10.8b | $2.6b operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| International Personal Care (IPC) | operating | enterprise | $5.7b | $796.0m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $6.3b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 3.25x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.57x |
| Interest coverage | 9.9x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
At $102.51 the price sits above every standard valuation family for Kimberly-Clark, the asset, earnings-power, peer-multiple, and forward-growth frames all land below it. The stock carries a quality premium the methods do not capture on their own.
The defining event is the Kenvue acquisition, approved by shareholders on January 29, 2026, which folds Tylenol, Listerine, Neutrogena, and Band-Aid into the portfolio and reshapes Kimberly-Clark from a tissue-and-personal-care company into a broader consumer-health business.
Full-year 2025 net sales were $16.4 billion with organic sales up 1.7%, and 2026 guidance calls for organic growth in line with roughly 2% category growth, mid-to-high single-digit adjusted operating profit growth, and double-digit constant-currency adjusted EPS growth.
Bull Case
Valuing a consumer-staples company means accepting that the market pays for predictability, and Kimberly-Clark is built to be predictable. Tissue, diapers, and feminine care are bought in good times and bad, branded under Huggies, Kleenex, Scott, and Kotex, with the kind of repeat-purchase loyalty that lets a company raise prices a little every year and hold margin. That is why staples trade at premiums to their own cash flows: the discount rate the market applies to a recession-resistant earnings stream is genuinely lower. Kimberly-Clark fits the template, and the recent numbers show the engine still works, full-year 2025 organic sales grew 1.7% even as reported net sales of $16.4 billion dipped on currency and divestitures.
The quality underneath the multiple is real. The company throws off close to $1.8 billion of free cash flow, return on invested capital runs above 30%, and the dividend is one of the longest-standing in the market, supported by a payout the cash flow comfortably covers. The 2026 guide is the bull case in management's own words: organic growth in line with roughly 2% category growth, mid-to-high single-digit adjusted operating profit growth, and double-digit adjusted EPS growth on a constant-currency basis. Margin expansion and buybacks are doing the heavy lifting, exactly the playbook a mature staple should run.
The transformational catalyst is Kenvue. On January 29, 2026, shareholders overwhelmingly approved Kimberly-Clark's acquisition of Kenvue, the maker of Tylenol, Listerine, Neutrogena, and Band-Aid. That deal turns a tissue-and-personal-care company into a broader consumer-health platform, adding higher-growth, higher-margin categories and a deeper bench of trusted brands. Management has framed it as a generational value-creation opportunity, and the logic is the staples logic at larger scale: more shelf space, more pricing power, and more cross-category distribution leverage. Against packaging and consumer-products peers like Reynolds, Avery Dennison, and Graphic Packaging, Kimberly-Clark offers stronger brand equity and now a path to faster growth. The premium the market pays is the price of owning that durability through whatever the economy does next.
Bear Case
The moat in consumer staples is the brand premium over the store label, and that premium is being chipped away one shopping trip at a time. Kimberly-Clark says it directly: increased purchases of private label products could reduce net sales of its higher-margin products and negatively impact profitability, in a marketplace where competition keeps intensifying (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-26-007567). Diapers and tissue are exactly the categories where a cash-strapped shopper can switch to the store brand without much sacrifice, and once they switch, the habit can stick. The 1.5% price decline that dragged Q1 2025 organic sales is the visible edge of that erosion: when volume will not grow, the company has to give back price, and giving back price in a branded staple is the moat narrowing in real time.
The defense is expensive and the data shows it. The same filing concedes that to stay competitive it may be necessary to lower prices and increase spending on advertising and promotion, which could adversely affect financial results (FY2025 10-K). That is the treadmill: hold share by spending more, and watch margin pay for it. Peers describe the same pressure from the retailers in the middle, large customers with power over suppliers, demanding innovation while requiring suppliers to maintain or reduce prices and shorten lead times (REYN FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-26-005284). Kimberly-Clark sits on the wrong side of that bargaining table for its commodity-adjacent categories.
Then there is the price and the balance sheet. Every standard valuation family lands below the current quote, asset, earnings power, peers, and forward growth all say the stock is rich, so the buyer is paying a full premium for a business growing organic sales around 2%. The Kenvue acquisition, the supposed growth answer, adds integration risk and likely leverage on top of existing net debt near $6.3 billion, and large consumer-health deals have a long history of underwhelming. Input costs are the other live exposure: as a manufacturer Kimberly-Clark depends on pulp, resin, and energy whose prices fluctuate, the same raw-material sensitivity peers flag as a core business risk (AVY FY2025 10-K, accession 0000008818-26-000015). A premium multiple on a slow-growth staple facing private-label pressure, integration risk, and input-cost volatility is a lot to underwrite at this price.
Valuation
Kimberly-Clark is the unusual staple where no valuation family reaches the current price. The asset, earnings-power, peer-multiple, and even forward-growth frames all land below $102.51 (June 27, 2026), which the engine characterizes plainly: the price is a bet beyond what any standard frame supports. The cash-flow methods that capitalize current earnings, FCF yield near $59, earnings power value near $65 on a normalized five-year EBIT, the DCF perpetual-growth method near $61, all cluster in the $55 to $65 range. The relative methods on peer multiples reach the low-to-mid $80s. Only the asset methods that lever an enormous trailing return on equity produce outlier highs, and those are artifacts of a tiny book value per share of $5.39 against buybacks, not durable value anchors.
The reverse-DCF tells a more nuanced story. Read against the company's operating income, the market is paying about 16x company-wide operating income, which on its own sits below what even a steady 5% annual decline in operating profit would warrant, in the lower half of the peer multiple range. That is the bull's counterpoint: on an operating-multiple basis the price is not absurd for a stable cash generator. The internal fair-value range, which incorporates a quality and durability premium, spans $157.76 to $215.75 with a base near $174, well above the price.
The synthesis is a genuine tension. The bottom-up valuation methods say the stock is rich on current cash flow; the operating-multiple inversion and the quality-adjusted range say the durability is worth paying for. Both can be true: a recession-resistant staple deserves a premium to its mechanical cash-flow value, and the question is only how large. With net debt near $6.3 billion before the Kenvue deal adds more, the balance sheet limits the margin for error, and the burden falls on the Kenvue acquisition to convert the premium into the faster growth that justifies it.
Catalysts
The dominant catalyst is the Kenvue acquisition, approved by Kimberly-Clark shareholders on January 29, 2026. The deal adds Tylenol, Listerine, Neutrogena, and Band-Aid to the portfolio and reshapes the company into a broader consumer-health platform. Every milestone on closing, financing terms, leverage, and early integration progress will move the stock, and the synergy and growth case management laid out is the central thing to verify over the coming quarters.
The operating story runs underneath. Full-year 2025 net sales were $16.4 billion, down 2.1% on reported terms but up 1.7% organically, with the Powering Care transformation cited as the margin and execution engine. For 2026 management guides to organic growth in line with roughly 2% category growth, mid-to-high single-digit adjusted operating profit growth, and double-digit constant-currency adjusted EPS growth. The next quarterly prints test whether volume can carry growth without further price giveback.
The recurring swing factors are pricing versus private label, input costs, and the dividend. Watch organic sales mix between price and volume, since price declines signal moat pressure, alongside pulp, resin, and energy costs that drive gross margin, and currency, which weighed on reported sales in 2025. Capital return continuity through the Kenvue integration is the other signal to track over the next 90 days.
Sources: StockTitan (KMB FY2025 results and Kenvue CAGNY plan), Yahoo Finance (Kenvue narrative), Seeking Alpha, SEC 8-K earnings releases.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
North America (NA) (reported)
- PG (PROCTER & GAMBLE CO)
- FY2025 10-K: …0000080424 2025 FY False http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesNoncurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesNoncurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#CostOfGoodsAndServicesSold…
- FY2025 10-K: RevenueNetMember pg:BeautySegmentMember 2023-07-01 2024-06-30 0000080424 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember pg:PersonalCareMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember pg:BeautySegmentMember 2022-07-01 2023-06-30 0000080424 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember…
- CL (COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …0000021665 2025 FY false P5Y http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#GoodwillAndIntangibleAssetImpairment http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#GoodwillAndIntangibleAssetImpairment http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherAssetsCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherAssetsCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherAccruedLiabilitiesCurrent…
- FY2025 10-K: ) Foreign Exchange Impact Acquisitions and Divestments Impact Organic Sales Growth (Non-GAAP) Oral, Personal and Home Care North America (1.6)% (0.1)% -% (1.6)% Latin America (0.1)% (4.0)% -% 3.9% Europe 6.9% 4.4% -% 2.6% Asia Pacific (1.5)% (0.5)% -% (1.0)% Africa/Eurasia 7.0% 0.5% -% 6.5% Total Oral, Personal and…
- KVUE (Kenvue Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …rights issues; • rising geopolitical trade tensions impacting our key markets, including but not limited to tensions in the United States, China, Western Europe, and Latin America; • evolving national security strategies in key markets that link supply chains to national security goals; and • other geopolitical…
- FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember kvue:EssentialHealthMember 2023-01-02 2023-12-31 0001944048 kvue:OtherEssentialHealthMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember kvue:EssentialHealthMember 2024-12-30 2025-12-28 0001944048…
- CHD (CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …products under the NAIR® brand ( the number one depilatory in the U.S.), oral analgesics and oral care products under the ORAJEL® brand (the number one oral care pain relief in the U.S.), cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM® brand ( the number one cold shortening brand in the U.S. ), a growing number…
- FY2025 10-K: ObsolescenceMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000313927 chd:SalesRevenuesGoodsNetMember chd:MajorCustomersMember us-gaap:CustomerConcentrationRiskMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000313927 chd:VMSTradenameMember us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember chd:ConsumerInternationalMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000313927…
- CLX (CLOROX CO /DE/)
- FY2025 10-K: …2022-07-01 2023-06-30 0000021076 clx:CleaningMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerMember 2024-07-01 2025-06-30 0000021076 clx:CleaningMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerMember 2023-07-01 2024-06-30 0000021076…
- FY2025 10-K: …2022-07-01 2023-06-30 0000021076 us-gaap:CorporateNonSegmentMember 2022-07-01 2023-06-30 0000021076 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember clx:August2023CyberattackMember clx:HealthAndWellnessMember 2023-07-01 2024-06-30 0000021076 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember…
International Personal Care (IPC) (reported)
- PG (PROCTER & GAMBLE CO)
- FY2025 10-K: …are hair care, personal care and skin care. We are a global market leader in the retail hair care market with about 20% global market share primarily behind our Head & Shoulders and Pantene brands. In personal care, we have the number two market share position with about 20% global market share, primarily behind our…
- FY2025 10-K: …Skin and Personal Care into individual operating segments, Skin Care and Personal Care. This transition included separation of the management team, strategic decision-making, innovation plans, financial targets, budgets and management reporting. Net sales and long-lived assets in the United States and internationally…
- CL (COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …management processes play a critical role in the Board's oversight of our enterprise risk management process. Our CISO reports to the Audit Committee on cybersecurity quarterly, or more frequently if circumstances warrant, including relevant cybersecurity incidents impacting the Company and on topics related to…
- FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000021665 cl:HomeCareMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000021665 cl:HomeCareMember us-gaap:ProductConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember…
- UL (UNILEVER PLC)
- FY2025 20-F: …and confidence in whole-body self-care. Strategic Report Unilever Annual Report on Form 20-F 2025 21 REVIEW OF THE YEAR Premiumising Personal Care We drove strong growth in hard currency, delivered through our Power Brand premiumisation and category-disrupting innovation. Fabian Garcia Business Group President,…
- FY2025 20-F: …(3.8)% versus the prior year. Underlying sales growth contributed 3.5%, offset by a significant currency impact of (5.9)% and (1.2)% from disposals, net of acquisitions. The currency impact was primarily driven by Latin American currencies, the Indian rupee, the US dollar and the Turkish lira, all depreciating…
- KVUE (Kenvue Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …2) global CPG companies that operate in similar or adjacent categories, 3) regional companies that operate in our categories within the markets in which we compete, 4) generic OTC manufacturers and retailers', including our customers', private-label brands in both traditional retail and online, and 5) emerging…
- FY2025 10-K: …laws. For example, in November 2025, we received a non-public Civil Investigative Demand ("CID") from the Attorney General of the State of Texas pursuant to the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices-Consumer Protection Act. The CID seeks documents related to certain Aveeno ® Baby products that are labelled as…
- CHD (CHURCH & DWIGHT CO., INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …in a reportable segment. Commercial & Professional We also provide a line of cleaning and deodorizing products for use in commercial and industrial applications such as office buildings, hotels, restaurants and other facilities. 6 COMPETITION We compete in the household and personal care consumer product categories,…
- FY2025 10-K: IRST RESPONSE® home pregnancy and ovulation test kits; NAIR® depilatories; ORAJEL® oral analgesic; XTRA® laundry detergent; and ZICAM® cold shortening and relief products. Seven of those brands are designated as "power brands" because they compete in large categories, and we believe they have the potential for…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.