DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION (DUK): what the price requires
The current priced-in claim for DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION (DUK) is temporarily suppressed because the live engine record is unavailable. The dated report remains a snapshot, not a current market read.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/DUK
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | DUK |
| Company | DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION |
| Current price | $126.95/sh |
| Composition | Regulated Utility 91% / Gas Distribution 9% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin today | 28.0% |
| Multiple paid | 21x operating income |
The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.
Solve inputs: computed at a 5.7% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~17.5%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -1.12σ |
| cohort percentile (of 70 peers) | 50 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore requires assumptions beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.76x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.80x | 3 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.60x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.33x | 2 | expensive |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=15)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | Reference only (OCF-based, capex excluded): OCF $11.7B |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0 |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $106.56 | 1.19x | yes | P/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 16.5x / 20.0x / 23.5x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $95.24 | 1.33x | yes | Stage 1: 8% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $71.32 | 1.78x | yes | BV/sh $69.91, ROE (TTM) 9.4%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $72.02 | 1.76x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $96.11 | 1.32x | yes | Rev $33.2B, growth 7% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.5x / 3.0x / 3.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $78.24 | 1.62x | yes | EPS $6.52, growth 8% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=2.37 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $34.45 | 3.69x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $7.40B × (1−18%) / WACC 5.3% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $72.14 | 1.76x | yes | BV $69.91 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 9.4% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 6.1%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $101.27 | 1.25x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $6.52 × BVPS $69.91) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $71.71 | 1.77x | yes | EBITDA $10.89B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $135.05 | 0.94x | yes | EPS $6.52 × (8.5 + 2×8.1%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $21.04 | 6.03x | yes | BV $69.91 × (ROIC 1.6% / WACC 5.3%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $106.44 | 1.19x | yes | Revenue $33.17B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $79.29 | 1.60x | yes | EPS $6.52 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 8.1% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 12.2x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $70.49 | 1.80x | yes | EPS $6.52 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $90.6b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 11.91x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 9.82x |
| Interest coverage | 2.5x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.3% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
The decisive metric is the 7.6 GW of executed data-center load agreements (2.7 GW added in Q1, nearly two-thirds under construction), which lifts expected enterprise load growth from 1.5 to 2% in 2026 to 3 to 4% through 2027 to 2030 and underpins a record $103 billion capital plan.
Q1 2026 was strong: adjusted EPS rose nearly 10% to $1.93, beating the $1.80 consensus, on revenue of $9.18 billion (up 11.3%), with rate-case impacts contributing about $0.14 per share, and management reaffirmed 5 to 7% long-term EPS growth through 2030.
The price is the catch: at $123.94 no standard valuation frame reaches the price (the blended estimate sits near $78), so the buyer is paying beyond what assets, earnings power, peers, or forward growth support, on a regulated business whose ROE band of 9.3 to 11.3% caps the upside.
Bull Case
The single most decisive number for Duke Energy is its executed data-center pipeline: 7.6 GW of signed energy-service agreements, with nearly two-thirds already under construction, after adding 2.7 GW in a single quarter. For a regulated utility, that number flips the entire growth narrative. Utilities earn a regulated return on the capital they invest to serve load, so demand of this scale forces a build-out, and the build-out is precisely what grows the rate base they earn on. Duke now expects enterprise load growth of 1.5% to 2% in 2026 accelerating to 3% to 4% through 2027 to 2030, with the Carolinas reaching 4% to 5%. A utility that historically grew load at barely 1% is staring at multi-year demand acceleration.
That demand is why management set a record $103 billion capital plan and reaffirmed a 5% to 7% long-term adjusted EPS growth rate through 2030, with confidence to land in the top half of the range from 2028. The Q1 2026 results showed the engine running: adjusted EPS rose nearly 10% to $1.93, beating the $1.80 consensus, on revenue of $9.18 billion, up 11.3%. The primary driver was the Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment, where rate-case impacts across Indiana, the Carolinas, Florida, and Duke Energy Progress contributed about $0.14 per share. The regulatory relationship is constructive: a recent North Carolina rate case for Duke Energy Progress was approved with an allowed ROE band of 9.3% to 11.3% [DUK FY2025 10-K, accession 0001326160-26-000014].
The business underneath is about as defensive as equities get: roughly 91% regulated utility with the remainder in gas distribution, serving captive customers in attractive Southeastern and Midwestern jurisdictions. The earnings are commission-set and recession-resistant, the dividend is a core part of the total return, and the data-center load adds a growth dimension that regulated utilities almost never have. For a holder who wants defensive income with a genuine, contracted growth catalyst, Duke offers a combination that is hard to find elsewhere in the sector.
Bear Case
The plain observation about Duke is that the market is paying full price for a regulated utility, and a regulated utility is, by design, a capped-return business. The qualitative tension comes first: no standard valuation frame reaches the current price. The stock is rich against its assets, against its earnings power, against its peers, and even against forward growth. That is unusual. It means the buyer at $123.94 (June 27, 2026) is paying beyond what conventional methods support, on the strength of the data-center growth story, in a business whose upside is structurally limited by what regulators allow it to earn. The allowed ROE on the recent North Carolina case was a band of 9.3% to 11.3% [DUK FY2025 10-K, accession 0001326160-26-000014], which is a fine return, but it is a ceiling, not a launchpad.
The financing is the hard constraint behind the growth. A $103 billion capital plan has to be funded, and a regulated utility funds it with a continual mix of new debt and new equity. The share count is already diluting at roughly 1.21% a year, which means a meaningful slice of the headline EPS growth is offset by issuing more shares to pay for the rate base the company earns on. Layer on the interest-rate sensitivity: utilities carry heavy debt, so higher-for-longer rates raise the cost of the build-out and pressure the multiple the market is willing to pay for the dividend stream. The cash-flow timing risk is also real, with the filing noting that delays between expenditures and cost recovery, including after major storms, can adversely affect the segment's cash flows [DUK FY2025 10-K, accession 0001326160-26-000014].
The valuation methods make the disconnect concrete. When the price already embeds the full data-center story and the regulatory ROE caps the upside, the risk is asymmetric: execution that merely meets the plan gets you the 5% to 7% EPS growth plus the dividend, while any regulatory lag, financing-cost increase, or slippage in the data-center ramp leaves a fully-priced stock with little to absorb the disappointment. The bear case is not that Duke is a bad utility. It is that an excellent utility is priced as if the growth is already in the bank.
Valuation
Duke Energy is the rare case where no valuation family reaches the price, which is itself the headline. At $123.94 the model characterizes the stock as rich on assets, earnings power, peers, and even forward growth, meaning the price is a bet beyond what any standard frame supports. The inversion runs on a segment basis with low reliability (a large regulated utility with regulated returns and heavy leverage is difficult to invert cleanly) and implies essentially flat operating growth near 0.2%, which is a flag that the model struggles here rather than a literal forecast.
The method X-ray sits below the price across the board. The blended estimate lands near $78, and the static asset, earnings-power, and relative families all imply the price carries a premium to no-growth and to peer multiples. The growth methods do not bridge the gap either, which is why the characterization is that the price exceeds every frame. The premium is being paid for the data-center-driven rate-base acceleration, a catalyst the standard methods cannot fully capture because it is a step-change in load growth for a business they model as low-growth.
The honest read: this is a high-quality regulated utility priced for its growth plan to deliver. The number that matters is the reaffirmed 5% to 7% long-term adjusted EPS growth, underpinned by the $103 billion capital plan and the 7.6 GW of contracted data-center load. The price embeds that path with little cushion, so the valuation works for an income compounder if the load materializes and the regulator stays constructive, and it is full to expensive if the growth plan slips, financing costs rise, or the data-center ramp disappoints.
Catalysts
The most recent catalyst was a strong Q1 2026 report in early May. Adjusted EPS rose nearly 10% to $1.93, beating the $1.80 consensus by about 7.5%, and revenue of $9.18 billion topped estimates and grew 11.3% year over year. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment drove the outperformance, with rate-case impacts across Indiana, the Carolinas, Florida, and Duke Energy Progress contributing roughly $0.14 per share. Duke reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and its 5% to 7% long-term growth rate through 2030, expressing confidence to earn in the top half of the range starting in 2028.
Data-center load is the defining forward catalyst. Duke signed 2.7 GW of new energy-service agreements with data centers since its February update, bringing executed agreements to 7.6 GW, with nearly two-thirds already under construction. The conversion of these agreements into energized, rate-recovered load is what turns the demand into earnings, and the pace of new signings is the leading indicator. Enterprise load growth is projected to accelerate from 1.5 to 2% in 2026 to 3 to 4% through 2027 to 2030, with the Carolinas reaching 4 to 5%.
The capital plan and regulatory cadence are the recurring catalysts. Management set a record $103 billion capital plan to serve the growth, and the financing mix, rate-case outcomes, and recovery timing govern how cleanly that capital converts to allowed earnings. Constructive rate-case decisions (such as the North Carolina approval with a 9.3 to 11.3% ROE band) support the plan; any regulatory lag, storm-recovery delay, or rise in financing costs is the offsetting risk. The next rate-case rulings and data-center signings are the milestones to watch.
Sources: https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/duke-energy-q1-2026-slides-data-center-boom-drives-earnings-beat-93CH-4660033 , https://www.utilitydive.com/news/duke-energy-earnings-anderson-gas-plant/819428/ , https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:45698c103ef0d:0-duke-energy-reports-q1-2026-adjusted-eps-1-93-reaffirming-2026-guidance-6-55-6-80/ , https://finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-sets-record-103-205848258.html
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (reported)
- NEE (NextEra Energy Inc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SO (SOUTHERN CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AEP (AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- D (DOMINION ENERGY, INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EXC (EXELON CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- XEL (XCEL ENERGY INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (reported)
- ATO (ATMOS ENERGY CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NI (NISOURCE INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SWX (Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SR (Spire Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NJR (NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.