CLEAN HARBORS, INC (CLH): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $310.71, CLEAN HARBORS, INC (CLH) is priced for +21.9% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/CLH

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 8.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.4%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=14)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Hazardous waste is a permitted business, not a competitive one, and Clean Harbors owns the scarce permits: its FY2025 annual report states that in commercial hazardous waste incineration "we operate the largest network of such facilities in North America", alongside seven landfills, six of which can take hazardous waste.
• The oil half of the company is the volatile half, since Safety-Kleen re-refines used oil into base oil and the annual report warns that geopolitical developments and supply-demand imbalances "may contribute to heightened oil price volatility in global oil markets", which lands directly in that segment's margin.
• The near-term test is the new Kimball, Nebraska incinerator reaching full utilisation by the end of 2026, since first-quarter incineration utilisation across the network including Kimball was 80%.

Bull Case

Sixteen consecutive quarters of year-over-year margin improvement is not a cycle. It is a business changing shape. The Environmental Services segment, which is roughly three-quarters of the company, extended that streak in the first quarter of 2026, and it did so in a quarter management described as weather-affected. Income from operations for the whole company rose 7% to $118.9 million on revenue of $1.46 billion, and net income reached $63.2 million, or $1.19 per diluted share, against $1.09 a year earlier. Nothing in that is dramatic. Steady is the point.

What makes steady possible is that the permits do the competing. The FY2025 annual report is unusually blunt about the mechanism, noting that "extensive environmental regulation applicable to our industry and operations is a barrier to rapid entry of competitors that benefits us". A commercial hazardous waste incinerator takes years of permitting and community process to build, which is why the company can also state that "we operate the largest network of such facilities in North America" and add that "In addition, we operate seven landfills, six of which are able to handle hazardous waste." Regulation is normally a cost line. Here it is the moat.

The customer side of the same law is what makes the revenue sticky. The annual report explains that under federal and state environmental law, "generators of hazardous waste remain liable and responsible for the proper disposal of such waste" even after they hand it to a contractor. A chemical plant cannot outsource the liability, only the handling, so it buys from the operator whose paperwork will survive an inspection twenty years from now. That is why price competition in this corner of waste behaves less like trucking and more like audit.

The growth lever right now is physical. The Kimball, Nebraska incinerator "commenced operations in late 2024 and is expected to be running at full capacity by the end of 2026", and network incineration utilisation ran at 80 percent in the first quarter. Incineration is a fixed-cost business with a high fixed cost base, so the distance between that level and a full plant drops almost entirely to profit. Alongside it, Technical Services revenue grew 5% on demand that management attributed partly to PFAS work, landfill volumes rose 34%, and Field Services grew 7%. PFAS is worth watching precisely because it creates waste streams that must be destroyed rather than stored, and destruction is what this network sells.

Capital allocation supports the thesis rather than fighting it. In May 2026 the company bought Terra Nova Solutions, a Carolinas operator with five permitted sites, for $225 million, expecting $45 million to $50 million of annual revenue and roughly $15 million of adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, which after anticipated synergies it put at a post-synergy multiple of 11.8 times. Buying permitted capacity at low double-digit multiples while the equity trades at roughly thirty times operating profit is arithmetic that works in the buyer's favour. The share count has also drifted down slightly over the past four years rather than up, so that arithmetic is not being handed back through issuance.

Bear Case

The competitive threat here does not come from a hazardous waste specialist. It comes from the two companies that already own North American waste logistics and are walking upstream into it. WM turns a 17.3% operating margin on $25.41 billion of revenue and grew 10.9%; RSG turns 17.4% on $19.13 billion. Clean Harbors, on trailing figures, earns about 10.6%. Those two competitors are not more efficient at burning solvents. They are structurally more profitable businesses with far larger balance sheets, and both have been building environmental-solutions arms aimed squarely at the industrial waste customer Clean Harbors serves. WCN's own annual report lists Clean Harbors by name among the competitors it faces. When companies earning seventeen cents on the revenue dollar decide to buy their way into a market where the incumbent earns ten, the incumbent's acquisition pipeline gets more expensive and its pricing gets tested.

The second exposure is that a tenth of revenue is a commodity business wearing a services label. Safety-Kleen Oil collects used oil and re-refines it into base oil, and the annual report is direct that "Factors such as geopolitical developments, supply and demand imbalances and macroeconomic shifts may contribute to heightened oil price volatility in global oil markets." The first quarter of 2026 shows the mechanism running the right way, with management crediting a late-quarter surge in base oil pricing for the segment's improvement. Spreads that widen on a price surge narrow on a price collapse, and the collection cost side does not move as fast as the sale price side.

Demand underneath the environmental business is more cyclical than the compliance framing suggests. The annual report notes that "General manufacturing customers account for more than thirty percent of the revenues for our Safety-Kleen Environmental revenues, with automotive customers making up less than twenty-five percent." Manufacturing volumes drive waste volumes. Management acknowledged in the same quarter that its Industrial Services business continues to operate in a challenged market, which is what an industrial slowdown looks like before it reaches the disposal network.

Now put the price on top of that. At $303.61 the market is paying roughly thirty times the company's operating profit, and working that backwards, the price embeds operating profit compounding at about 24.7% a year for five years. Clean Harbors has recently grown at close to that rate, so the requirement is not fantastical. It is also not common, since roughly a third of comparable fast-growers held that pace for five years. And every standard valuation frame lands below today's price. The methods that value the company on what it currently earns, capitalised with no growth, sit at roughly a sixth of the price. The book-value methods sit at roughly a third. Even the forward-growth and peer-multiple methods, the two most generous lenses available, land about 1.4 times under it. If the compounding assumption slips, there is no frame underneath to catch the price.

The balance sheet is not the problem, but it is not slack either. Net debt of about 2.88 billion dollars stands at roughly 4.55 times operating profit, or about 6.1 times the same figure after tax. That is manageable for a business with contracted, recurring waste volumes and a stated 2026 expectation of $840 million to $960 million in net cash from operating activities. It is less comfortable if the industrial slowdown deepens while the company keeps buying permitted assets with cash. And the liabilities do not go away when the assets do: the annual report carries "post-closure and remedial liabilities valued at $230.7 million, substantially all of which we assumed in connection with acquisitions", which is the long tail every acquirer in this industry inherits.

Valuation

Roughly thirty times operating profit is where this price starts, and the useful question is what has to be true for it to be reasonable. Inverted, the answer is company-wide operating profit compounding at about 24.7% a year for five years. That figure is close to what Clean Harbors has actually delivered in recent years, which is why it reads as demanding rather than implausible. History is less generous than the company's own record: of comparable fast-growers, only about 36% sustained that pace for five years.

That number is also more fragile than a single figure suggests, and in a specific way. Required growth moves roughly 8.2 percentage points for every one percentage point of change in the discount rate applied to it. A reader deciding whether 24.7% is a lot should hold that in mind: this is an answer sensitive enough to its own discount assumption that treating it as a measurement rather than an estimate would be a mistake.

Where the methods land is the harder fact. Every family sits below the price, which is unusual. Furthest away are the earnings-power methods, with the price sitting about 6.6 times where the earnings-power methods land, and that distance is the arithmetic of a zero-growth perpetuity on free cash flow rather than a judgement about the company. The price sits about 3.2 times where the asset-value methods land. The two most forgiving lenses, forward growth and peer multiples, still leave the price roughly 1.4 times above them, the forward-growth version getting closest because it holds the cash-flow multiple steady for five more years. The pattern is the point: nothing in the standard toolkit reaches this price. What is being paid for sits outside what those frames measure, which for this business means the permit position and the network that goes with it.

Two operational facts anchor the growth side of that argument in something filed rather than assumed. The Kimball incinerator "commenced operations in late 2024 and is expected to be running at full capacity by the end of 2026", and network incineration utilisation was 80% in the first quarter of 2026. Fixed-cost capacity filling up is the single most legible path from today's operating profit toward the growth the price assumes, and unlike a market-share argument it can be checked quarter by quarter.

Solvency sets the boundary underneath. Net debt is about 2.88 billion dollars against gross borrowings a little above that, which is roughly 4.55 times operating profit, or about 6.1 times after tax. Cash on the balance sheet is thin, but the company guides to $840 million to $960 million of net cash from operating activities for 2026 and to adjusted free cash flow of $490 million to $550 million, which is what actually services debt. Share count has edged down about 0.8% a year over the four years to March 2026, so the per-share arithmetic is working slightly for holders rather than against them. The debt is real but it is being carried by cash flow, not refinanced hope, and that distinction is what keeps a demanding growth requirement from also being a solvency question.

Catalysts

The first quarter of 2026 came in ahead of the company's own expectations and, more importantly, changed the guidance. Revenue reached $1.46 billion against $1.43 billion a year earlier, income from operations rose 7% to $118.9 million, and net income was $63.2 million, or $1.19 per diluted share. Management raised the midpoint of full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance by $40 million and the midpoint of adjusted free cash flow guidance by $10 million, putting anticipated GAAP net income for the year in a range of $421 million to $472 million and anticipated net cash from operating activities in a range of $840 million to $960 million. Second-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, the company's own adjusted measure, were guided to grow 5% to 9% year over year.

Segment detail explains where the raise came from. Technical Services revenue grew 5% on disposal and recycling demand including PFAS-related work, Safety-Kleen Environmental Services grew 7% on pricing, Field Services grew 7% helped by a single emergency project worth roughly $10 million, and landfill volumes rose 34% on project activity. The Safety-Kleen Sustainability Solutions segment grew its adjusted earnings measure 17% with a 320-basis-point margin improvement, gathering 53 million gallons of waste oil in the quarter. The offsetting weakness was Industrial Services, which management described as operating in a challenged market.

On May 14, 2026 the company announced the all-cash acquisition of Terra Nova Solutions for 225 million dollars, funded from money already on hand. The Carolinas-based business operates five permitted sites with annual capacity to treat 35 million gallons of wastewater and more than 85 million gallons of solidification, and is expected to contribute $45 million to $50 million of annual revenue and approximately $15 million of adjusted earnings, with $4 million of anticipated synergies after the first full year giving an implied post-synergy multiple of 11.8 times. The two things to watch from here are whether Kimball reaches full utilisation on the stated end-of-2026 schedule and whether Industrial Services stops being the drag it has been.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Environmental Services (reported)

• WM (Waste Management, Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …and Environmental Solutions ("SES") business or geographically dispersed customers managed through our Strategic Business Solutions ("WMSBS") business. Also included within Other Ancillary are the results of non-operating entities that provide financial assurance and self-insurance support for our business, net of…
• FY2025 10-K: …and advisory services, working full-time onsite at our customers' facilities or through remote-managed programs (this service is managed through our SES business but reflected principally in our collection line of business); (ii) remediation and construction services; (iii) management and marketing of fly ash, which…
• RSG (REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …base index such as a consumer price index which are unknown at contract inception. Transfer Services Revenue at our transfer stations is primarily generated by charging tipping or disposal fees. The fees received for transfer services are based primarily on the market, type and volume or weight of the material…
• FY2025 10-K: …disposal capacity at each of our landfills and evaluate whether to pursue an expansion at a given landfill based on estimated future waste volumes and prices, market needs, remaining capacity and the likelihood of obtaining an expansion. To satisfy future disposal demand, we are seeking to expand permitted capacity…
• WCN (WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Clean Harbors, Inc., Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp., Select Water Solutions, Inc., Ecoserv, LLC, Oilfield Water Logistics LLC, Albright Flush Systems Ltd., Plains Environmental and others. In addition, customers in many markets have the option of using internal disposal methods or…
• FY2025 10-K: …in the period in which it occurs. We have seen and may continue to see significant increases in premiums on insurance that we retain, as well as higher deductibles or self-insured retentions, both of which have impacted and could continue to impact our financial results. Our business is subject to operational and…
• CWST (CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …We provide solid waste and recycling services to commercial, municipal, institutional, industrial and residential customers. A majority of our commercial and industrial collection and disposal services are performed under one-to-five year service agreements. Our residential collection and disposal services are…
• FY2025 10-K: . " Financial Statements and Supplementary Data " of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Revenues associated with our solid waste operations are derived mainly from fees charged to customers for solid waste collection and disposal services, including landfill, transfer station and transportation services, landfill…
• TTEK (TETRA TECH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …included in Item 8. For more information on risks related to our business, reportable segments and geographic regions, including risks related to foreign operations, see Item 1A, "Risk Factors" of this report. Government Services Group GSG provides high-end consulting and engineering services primarily to U.S.…
• FY2025 10-K: …service activities that are subject to government oversight, including environmental laws and regulations, general government procurement laws and regulations and other regulations and requirements imposed by the specific government agencies with which we conduct business. Environmental. A significant portion of our…

Safety-Kleen Sustainability Solutions (reported)

• WM (Waste Management, Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …Gas Reporting Program. The proposal would eliminate reporting requirements for numerous source categories, including landfills. This uncertainty regarding the status of the federal reporting program could result in increased state-level GHG reporting requirements. In light of customer demand, we have identified…
• FY2025 10-K: …and advisory services, working full-time onsite at our customers' facilities or through remote-managed programs (this service is managed through our SES business but reflected principally in our collection line of business); (ii) remediation and construction services; (iii) management and marketing of fly ash, which…
• RSG (REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …disposal capacity at each of our landfills and evaluate whether to pursue an expansion at a given landfill based on estimated future waste volumes and prices, market needs, remaining capacity and the likelihood of obtaining an expansion. To satisfy future disposal demand, we are seeking to expand permitted capacity…
• FY2025 10-K: …to Hurricane Helene recovery efforts and the Los Angeles area wildfire remediation. These events increased revenue during 2025 by approximately $100 million. • Revenue decreased by 0.1% due to the impact of the number of workdays during 2025 as compared to 2024. • There was no net change to revenue as a result of…
• WCN (WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and Safe Work Practices training. We further emphasize the importance of safety through regular tailgate safety meetings and rollout safety instructions for our drivers, and through the utilization of electronic safety communication boards, safety alerts, and other communications to heighten awareness and maintain…
• FY2025 10-K: …We have 23 collective bargaining agreements covering 1,414 employees that have expired or are set to expire during 2026. In 2025, we did not experience any work stoppages or days idle due to labor issues. Health and Safety Safety is our first operating value at Waste Connections. We are committed to the safety of our…
• CWST (CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …various initiatives related to additional internalization opportunities, sourcing of profitable volumes, enhanced safety, improved compliance, operational excellence, and capital efficiency programs. Creating Incremental Value Through Resource Solutions Our Resource Solutions operating segment's business strategy is…
• FY2025 10-K: …of materials management services that enhance our regional and divisional service capabilities. Deep community engagement, supported by modern brand governance and strategy, gives us the flexibility needed to serve today's customers, strengthen our communities and drive organic growth. Our enterprise sustainability…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.