Blackstone Inc. (BX): what the price requires

At today's price, Blackstone Inc. (BX) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~10.3 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-13 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/BX

Headline

FieldValue
TickerBX
CompanyBlackstone Inc.
Current price$122.01/sh
CompositionReal Estate 27% / Private Equity 39% / Credit & Insurance 26% / Multi-Asset Investing 8%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basisfee-financial
Top-of-range earnings growth must hold for10.3y
Price-to-earnings32.6x
Earnings yield3.1%

Solve inputs: computed at a 13.6% cost of equity; growth searched up to the 20% fee-earnings ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~1.1 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~15.9%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: high

ReferenceValue
vs own history-0.32σ
cohort percentile (of 49 peers)88
sustained it ~10 years at this level11%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.44x4expensive
Earnings2.75x4expensive
Relative1.43x4expensive
Growth0.70x3justifies

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$175.380.70xyesFCF base $4.8B, growth 17% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.2%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$0.00—noNegative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0
Relative ValuationRelative$81.081.50xyesP/E 17.82x (blended: sector 12x + trailing (TTM) 31x), scenarios: 14.6x / 17.8x / 21.0x (bear / base = sector held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA N/Ax
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth$346.010.35xyesStage 1: 20% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$41.992.91xyesBV/sh $25.46, ROE (TTM) 15.3%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$53.282.29xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$114.131.07xyesRev $14.8B, growth 17% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 5.3x / 6.5x / 7.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$90.581.35xyesEPS $3.90, growth 23% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.35 (Fair)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset$54.542.24xyesBV $25.46 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 15.3% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$47.262.58xyes√(22.5 × EPS $3.90 × BVPS $25.46) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——no—
FCF YieldEarnings$46.902.60xyesFCF $4425.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$25.804.73xyesSBC-adj FCF $2.89B (FCF $4.43B − SBC $1.54B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$125.840.97xyesEPS $3.90 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset——no—
P/Sales SectorRelative$56.382.16xyesRevenue $14.78B × sector P/S 3.0x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$135.870.90xyesEPS $3.90 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 23.2% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 34.8x
Earnings YieldEarnings$42.162.89xyesEPS $3.90 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$11.0b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)2.02x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)1.75x
Interest coverage12.1x
Share count CAGR (dilution)1.7%
Burning cashno

Bullet Takeaways

At about $124, Blackstone trades near 33 times earnings, a 3% earnings yield that sits at the very top of the alternative-asset-manager group. Inverted, the price asks for fee-earnings growth near the top of the range for roughly eleven years, a demanding bet that only about one in nine fast-growing fee firms has historically sustained.

The franchise is firing on the operating metrics. First-quarter 2026 fee-related earnings rose 23% to $1.55 billion, total assets under management hit a record $1.30 trillion, and the firm pulled in $68.5 billion of inflows. Distributable earnings grew 25%.

Only the growth-DCF method reaches the price; the asset, earnings-power, and peer-multiple methods all land well below it. The stock fell sharply in 2026 even as the business grew, which tells you the embedded expectations bar is high. The dividend is variable, tied to distributable earnings, so it rises and falls with realizations.

Bull Case

Look at where the price sits against the valuation methods, because the spread frames exactly what you are paying for. A capital-light fee business is worth the fee earnings it throws off, so the right lens is price-to-earnings, and at about $124 Blackstone trades near 33 times earnings, a 3% earnings yield at the very top of the alternative-manager group. Only the growth-DCF family reaches the price: a perpetual-growth DCF lands near $175 and a two-stage dividend read far higher, both crediting years of compounding fee income. The static frames land lower because they do not credit the growth. The bull point is that for a business compounding fee earnings the way Blackstone has, the growth-based methods are the appropriate ones, and they say the price is supported by, not stretched beyond, the firm's demonstrated trajectory.

The operating metrics behind that trajectory are exceptional. First-quarter 2026 fee-related earnings rose 23% to $1.55 billion, total assets under management reached a record $1.30 trillion, fee-earning AUM was $937.6 billion, and the firm took in $68.5 billion of inflows in the quarter with roughly $250 billion over the trailing year. Distributable earnings grew 25% to $1.76 billion, and net accrued performance revenues climbed to $7.0 billion, a stored pool of future carry. The engine is the shift toward permanent capital: the 10-K notes the firm has "meaningfully increased our assets under management in such vehicles in recent years" where "redemptions are limited in quantum" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-082531), which makes the fee base stickier and more predictable than a traditional fund manager's.

The growth avenues are large and timely. Blackstone is the scaled leader in private credit, with tens of billions of dry powder and rising institutional and insurance demand, and it is pushing hard into private wealth, where perpetual vehicles raised billions in the quarter. Most strikingly, it has become a central financier of the AI buildout: a $5 billion data-center joint venture with Google targeting 500 megawatts and potentially $25 billion of total investment, and participation in a landmark multi-billion-dollar AI-infrastructure financing platform. These are exactly the long-duration, fee-generating deployments the growth-DCF method is paying for. Buy Blackstone and you are buying the dominant brand in alternatives, compounding AUM at a double-digit rate, with the franchise positioned at the center of the two biggest capital flows of the decade, private credit and AI infrastructure.

Bear Case

The competitive disruption to watch is that everyone wants to be Blackstone now, and the moat in alternatives is narrowing. KKR, Apollo, Ares, and Brookfield are all scaling private credit, insurance balance sheets, and private-wealth distribution as fast as they can, and BlackRock has pushed aggressively into private markets through acquisitions. The same AI-infrastructure and private-credit deals that excite the bull case are being chased by every large alternative manager and increasingly by the banks returning to leveraged lending. When capital floods into a strategy, returns compress and fees come under pressure. The 10-K is candid about the fee risk: "in the face of poor fund performance, investors could demand lower fees or fee concessions for existing or future" funds (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-082531). A crowded field of well-funded competitors is the structural threat to the fee margins the price capitalizes for a decade.

The earnings are also more cyclical and lumpy than the headline 33-times multiple suggests. A large part of distributable earnings comes from performance revenues that depend on realizing investments at a gain, and the 10-K warns that "a particular realization event may have a significant impact on our results for that particular quarter that may not be replicated" (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001193125-26-082531). When exit markets freeze, as they can in a downturn or a high-rate environment, realizations dry up, performance fees fall, and the dividend, which is variable and tied to distributable earnings, falls with them. Blackstone's real estate and private equity portfolios are also marked to market, so a downturn hits both the carry and the fee-earning AUM base.

Most of all, the valuation prices a flawless decade. At 33 times earnings, the very top of the fee-financial group, the price implies fee earnings growing near the top of the range for about eleven years, and history says only about 11% of fast-growing fee firms sustained that pace that long. Every static method lands far below the price: the relative read near $82, the earnings-power and excess-return reads in the $40s, the blended read near $86, all well under the $124 (June 27, 2026) quote. The stock already fell sharply in 2026 precisely because the market began to question whether that growth bar is achievable. The bet is that Blackstone keeps compounding AUM at a double-digit rate while fees hold, exit markets cooperate, and the private-credit and AI deals pay off, all at once, for years. If competition compresses fees, a downturn freezes realizations, or AUM growth slows toward the peer average, the methods say there is a long way down to where the business is actually valued.

Valuation

Blackstone is a capital-light fee business, so it is valued off its fee earnings rather than its book value. At about $124 the price is roughly 33 times earnings, a 3% earnings yield that sits at the very top of the alternative-asset-manager group. Inverting that at a high cost of equity implies fee earnings growing near the top of the plausible range for about eleven years. The assumed pace is within what Blackstone has delivered, but the duration is the stretch, and history says only about 11% of fast-growing fee firms sustained that level for a decade. The model flags the implied bet as high.

The method families split decisively. Only the growth-DCF family reaches the price, with a perpetual-growth read near $175 and a dividend-discount read far above, both crediting years of fee-earnings compounding. The relative-valuation read lands near $82 on a blended sector and trailing multiple, the earnings-power and excess-return methods land in the $40s against a book value of about $25.46 per share and a 15.3% return on equity, and the discounted-future-market-cap read lands near the price at $116. The blended read across applicable methods is near $86, well below the quote. The signal is clear: the price rests on durable, top-of-range fee growth and is contradicted by every method that does not extrapolate it.

The honest conclusion: this is a quality premium on the dominant alternatives franchise, not a value entry. The case works if Blackstone keeps growing AUM and fee-related earnings at a double-digit pace, the private-credit and private-wealth flows continue, the AI-infrastructure deals deliver, and exit markets cooperate so performance revenues keep flowing. The operating metrics, record AUM, 23% fee-earnings growth, and a growing carry pool, support that case. But at the top P/E in its group with an eleven-year implied horizon, the price already assumes the favorable decade. The variable dividend and the realization-dependent performance fees make the earnings lumpier than the multiple implies, and the static methods near $86 are the measure of how far the price could fall if the growth or the exit environment disappoints.

Catalysts

The latest results showed the fee machine accelerating. First-quarter 2026 fee-related earnings rose 23% to $1.55 billion, total assets under management reached a record $1.30 trillion (up 12% year over year), fee-earning AUM was $937.6 billion, inflows were $68.5 billion in the quarter, and distributable earnings grew 25% to $1.76 billion, or $1.36 per share, with a dividend of $1.16 declared. (stocktitan, Smartkarma)

The strategic catalysts cluster around AI infrastructure and private credit. Blackstone announced a $5 billion AI data-center joint venture with Google targeting 500 megawatts by 2027 with potential to reach $25 billion of total investment, and is participating in a landmark multi-billion-dollar AI-infrastructure financing platform alongside Broadcom and Apollo to expand Anthropic's compute. (Simply Wall St) On private credit, the firm cited roughly $74 billion of dry powder and growing institutional and insurance demand, and private wealth raised about $10 billion in the quarter through perpetual strategies.

Sentiment and the stock tell a cautionary tale: despite the strong operating quarter, the shares fell sharply in 2026 as the market reassessed the high embedded growth bar, and analysts hold a Moderate Buy with an average target around $151 to $156, above the current price. (tikr) The things to watch: fee-related earnings and AUM growth, the pace of inflows and realizations that drive the variable dividend, deployment and returns on the AI-infrastructure and private-credit initiatives, fee pressure from intensifying competition, and the health of exit markets for performance revenue.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Real Estate (reported)

Private Equity (reported)

Credit & Insurance (reported)

Multi-Asset Investing (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive BX report on boothcheck