AptarGroup, Inc (ATR): what the price requires
At today's price, AptarGroup, Inc (ATR) is priced for +5.9% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-17 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ATR
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | ATR |
| Company | AptarGroup, Inc |
| Current price | $125.31/sh |
| Composition | Pharma 46% / Beauty 35% / Closures 19% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 8.2% |
| Operating margin today | 13.2% |
| Margin compression implied | -5.0pp |
| Implied growth | 5.9% |
| Multiple paid | 18x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.9pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~13%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.08σ |
| cohort percentile (of 76 peers) | 49 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.72x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.28x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.19x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.12x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $111.50 | 1.12x | yes | FCF base $0.3B, growth 9% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.1%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $126.47 | 0.99x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 12.3x / 14.3x / 16.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $111.25 | 1.13x | yes | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 15.0x / 18.0x / 21.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $64.47 | 1.94x | yes | BV/sh $40.56, ROE (TTM) 14.7%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $80.36 | 1.56x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $101.20 | 1.24x | yes | Rev $3.9B, growth 9% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.8x / 2.1x / 2.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $70.08 | 1.79x | yes | EPS $5.84, growth 7% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=3.18 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $55.03 | 2.28x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.45B × (1−22%) / WACC 9.1% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $82.62 | 1.52x | yes | BV $40.56 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 14.7% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $73.00 | 1.72x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $5.84 × BVPS $40.56) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $105.49 | 1.19x | yes | EBITDA $0.57B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $54.36 | 2.31x | yes | FCF $327.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $47.44 | 2.64x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.29B (FCF $0.33B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $106.29 | 1.18x | yes | EPS $5.84 × (8.5 + 2×6.6%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $14.01 | 8.94x | yes | BV $40.56 × (ROIC 3.2% / WACC 9.1%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $149.33 | 0.84x | yes | Revenue $3.87B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $57.89 | 2.16x | yes | EPS $5.84 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 6.6% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 9.9x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $63.14 | 1.98x | yes | EPS $5.84 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $947.0m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 2.43x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 1.89x |
| Interest coverage | 9.5x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.9% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- AptarGroup makes the dispensing devices that deliver products, from the nasal sprays and injectable components that put drugs into patients to the pumps and closures on beauty and beverage packaging, and its Pharma segment is the crown jewel at 46% of revenue with the highest margins and the most defensible position.
- The defining near-term risk is that growth is currently uneven: reported first-quarter sales rose 11% but organic demand was roughly flat, with a destocking headwind in emergency-medicine devices offsetting a 20% surge in injectables tied to GLP-1 and biologics.
- Watch the Pharma core sales recovery against guidance: management expects a roughly $65 million full-year emergency-medicine headwind weighted to the first half, easing in the second, so the back-half prints test whether Pharma reaccelerates.
Bull Case
Start with how far the price sits above the valuation methods, because for Aptar the answer is unusually modest, and that is the point. At $120.29, the price is only a step above where the peer-multiple and growth methods land and just above where the asset and earnings-power lenses reach, which says the market is paying a fair-to-slightly-rich price for quality rather than a stretched growth premium. The reason quality is the right word is the Pharma segment. Aptar's drug-delivery business sells proprietary devices, nasal spray pumps, elastomeric components for injectables, and inhalation systems, that are designed into a drug's regulatory filing, which means switching suppliers requires re-validation with the FDA and its global counterparts, the regulatory agencies the 10-K references for "Pharma regulatory agencies in the United States" and abroad. That qualification is the moat: once Aptar's device is on an approved drug, it tends to stay there for the life of the product.
The demand under that moat is tied to the strongest themes in pharma. The first quarter showed injectables core sales up 20%, driven by elastomeric components for GLP-1 biologics and antithrombotics, exactly the drug classes growing fastest. Systemic nasal drug delivery and biologics add further runway, and Aptar's devices are being used in clinical programs for novel therapies. The Pharma segment generated $439 million in the quarter and remains the profit engine; the strength in injectables is the durable growth story even as one sub-line, emergency medicine, works through a temporary destocking.
The consumer segments and the balance sheet round out the case. Beauty and Closures are lower-margin but they provide scale, cash flow, and exposure to recovering consumer volumes, and the 10-K notes growth in dispensing closures for the beverage market "due to growing con"sumer demand. The company funds a steadily rising dividend, increased at a mid-single-digit pace over the past decade with no cuts, and carries manageable leverage, net debt under two times operating income with interest coverage near 8.5 times. A business with a regulated, hard-to-displace pharma franchise, real consumer scale, and a reasonable multiple is the kind of compounder that does not need a heroic assumption to work. The bull case is that the modest premium in the price is well earned by the Pharma moat, and the current organic-growth softness is a timing issue, not a structural one.
Bear Case
The competitive and structural pressure on Aptar comes from the two-thirds of the business that is not the protected Pharma franchise. Beauty and Closures together are over half of revenue, and they live in a far more contestable world: packaging components for cosmetics and beverages, where customers have alternatives, raw-material costs swing with resin prices, and demand follows the consumer cycle. The 10-K is candid that results depend on "changing economic conditions, currency fluctuations, weather conditions, health crises" and similar external forces, and the first quarter showed exactly that exposure: a supplier fire pressured Beauty margins and extreme North American weather hit Closures. These are not one-offs so much as the normal texture of a consumer-packaging business, and they cap the blended margin and growth that the Pharma segment alone would suggest.
The quality of the recent growth is the sharper concern. Reported sales rose 11% in the quarter, but that was driven by currency and acquisitions, not by underlying demand, which was roughly flat, and adjusted earnings per share actually fell 8% from the prior year. Even within the prized Pharma segment, core sales declined 1% in the quarter, because the 20% injectables surge was offset by destocking in emergency-medicine dispensing systems, a roughly 3% headwind. Destocking is the kind of dynamic that is easy to wave away as temporary but can persist longer than expected if customers remain cautious on inventory. A company whose premium rests on Pharma growth printing a Pharma core-sales decline, even a small one, is a reminder that the crown jewel is not immune to demand timing.
The valuation leaves limited cushion if the reacceleration slips. The asset-value and earnings-power methods both land well below today's $120.29 (June 27, 2026), in the $50s to $80s, reflecting a moderate return on equity near 15% against the cost of capital. Only the peer-multiple and growth methods reach the price, and they reach it by crediting continued mid-single-digit growth. Inverted, the price embeds about 5% annual operating growth for five years, which is within what Aptar has delivered but assumes the organic softness reverses. The company carries roughly $1.18 billion of gross debt, net debt near two times operating income, which is manageable but not trivial if consumer demand stays weak and margins remain pressured. The bear case is not that Aptar is a bad business; it is that the price already pays for the Pharma growth to keep compounding, while half the company is a cyclical packaging operation whose margins are currently going the wrong way, and earnings just declined year over year. Pay a quality multiple and you need the quality segment to deliver, which this quarter it did not, organically.
Valuation
Aptar is a quality compounder priced like one, which makes the valuation question about whether the modest premium is earned rather than whether the price is detached from reality. At $120.29, the stock trades at roughly 17 times company-wide operating income, embedding about 5% annual operating growth for five years. That is within what the company has recently delivered, so the framework reads the priced-in assumption as broadly within range. This is not a stock demanding heroics; it is a fairly valued business where the debate is the durability of mid-single-digit growth and the recovery of organic demand.
The families of method line up in the now-familiar quality-company pattern. The asset-value methods, anchored on a book value near $40.56 a share, land in the $60s to low $80s, because a 15% return on equity only modestly exceeds the cost of capital. The earnings-power methods, capitalizing current normalized profit with no growth, land in the $50s. The peer-multiple methods, applying a sector price-to-earnings near 18 times, land just above $110, essentially at the price, and the growth methods reach it. So the read is consistent: the static lenses say modestly expensive, while the peer-multiple and growth lenses justify the price. The premium is the Pharma franchise and the growth it can sustain; the price is paying a fair amount for it, not an extreme one. A useful way to hold the segments is that the consolidated multiple blends a high-margin, hard-to-displace Pharma business with two lower-margin consumer segments, so the right comparison is segment by segment rather than a single company-wide number, and Pharma carries the valuation.
Solvency is comfortable and not a swing factor. Aptar carries roughly $1.18 billion of gross debt against about $229 million of liquid assets, leaving net debt near two times operating income, with interest coverage around 8.5 times, so the debt is well covered out of operating cash flow. The share count is essentially flat, so dilution is not eroding the per-share case, and the dividend has risen steadily for years without a cut. The downside risk in this name is not financial; it is that the organic growth softness in Pharma and the margin pressure in the consumer segments persist, in which case a fair multiple on stalling earnings is simply dead money rather than a loss. Published analyst targets sit well above the current price, in the mid-$160s on average, crediting a Pharma reacceleration the recent quarter has not yet shown.
Catalysts
The first quarter of 2026 framed the debate cleanly. Reported sales rose 11% to $983 million, but the growth came from currency and acquisitions while organic demand was roughly flat, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.19 beat estimates yet fell 8% from $1.30 a year earlier. Inside Pharma, the segment generated $439 million with injectables core sales up 20% on GLP-1 and biologics demand, offset by a destocking headwind in emergency-medicine dispensing that drove a 1% core-sales decline for the segment. Management framed the emergency-medicine drag as a roughly $65 million full-year headwind weighted to the first half, with comparisons easing in the second half, which makes the back-half prints the key test of whether Pharma core growth reaccelerates.
The consumer segments and capital return fill in the picture. Beauty and Closures saw volumes improve but margins pressured by a supplier fire and severe weather, transitory items that should fade. Aptar continues to pay a steadily growing dividend, with a recent quarterly payout and a long record of mid-single-digit annual increases, and its nasal and injectable delivery platforms are being designed into new drug programs, including clinical-stage vaccine and biologic candidates, which seeds future Pharma volume. Analyst sentiment is constructive, with a consensus that skews to buy and average price targets well above the current level, reflecting confidence that the Pharma franchise reaccelerates once the destocking clears. The next earnings report, and specifically Pharma core sales growth and the consumer-segment margins, are the events that confirm or challenge the modest premium in the price.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Pharma (reported)
- WST (WEST PHARMACEUTICAL SERVICES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CCK (CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Beauty (reported)
- AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CCK (CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Closures (reported)
- SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CCK (CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PKG (PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q1 FY2026 results, May 2026 · analyst consensus, MarketBeat / public.com, 2026 · company disclosures, 2026 · analyst consensus, public.com / MarketBeat, 2026