AptarGroup, Inc (ATR): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $132.99, AptarGroup, Inc (ATR) is priced for +8.9% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ATR

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 8.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=12)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Nearly half of revenue comes from Pharma, where the product sold is not packaging but the dispensing device written into a customer's drug submission, and the 10-K describes working "for years modifying our dispensing device to work in connection with a customer's drug formulation" before any royalty arrives.
• Most of the company's production sits outside the United States, so import restrictions and a moving euro reach reported results before volumes do, and the second-quarter outlook is pinned to a 1.18 euro-to-dollar assumption.
• Injectables is the line to watch, with sales there up 20% in the first quarter of 2026 on elastomeric components for GLP-1 therapies, biologics and antithrombotics, and the next print will show whether that pace survives a harder comparison.

Bull Case

Mature is the correct label for AptarGroup, and it should change how the numbers are read. Nobody is waiting on a new end market here. What a business of this age can still do is charge for something narrow and genuinely hard to replace, and the Pharma segment is precisely that. The 10-K describes it as proprietary "dispensing systems, drug delivery systems, sealing solutions and services to the prescription drug, consumer health care, injectables, active material science solutions and digital health markets". Those are not containers. They are components that sit inside a regulatory submission.

The switching cost falls straight out of that fact. Aptar says it works "for years modifying our dispensing device to work in connection with a customer's drug formulation", and that it then receives royalties from customers based on their sales of the finished product. A drug company that swaps its inhaler valve or its syringe plunger is not changing a supplier. It is reopening a filing with a regulator. That asymmetry is why 46% of revenue sits in Pharma and why the growth keeps landing there: injectables sales rose 20% in the first quarter of 2026 on demand for elastomeric components used in GLP-1 therapies, biologics and antithrombotics.

Mix is doing quiet work on profitability. The trailing operating margin is 13.2%. Set that against the cohort and the ladder is visible: GPK earns a 7.0% operating margin, PKG 11.7%, CCK 12.2%, and WST, the one peer whose business is primarily pharmaceutical containment, earns 20.3%. Aptar sits in the middle of that ladder because it is roughly half a pharma company and roughly half a consumer packaging company. Every point of mix shift toward Pharma moves it up the rungs, and the shift is happening without a strategic pivot, simply because that is where the volume is growing. The company's own 2025 discussion attributes core sales growth to "Strong product volume growth in our Pharma and Closures segments along with increased tooling sales, mainly in our Beauty segment".

Beauty deserves more credit than its reputation for cyclicality suggests. The 10-K puts it at 35% of net sales while it holds 32% of total assets, so it consumes slightly less capital than its revenue share implies. That is a useful shape for a segment whose job is to fund the other one.

The balance sheet is not in the way. Net debt runs just under 950 million dollars, which is 1.89 times operating profit, and operating profit covers interest roughly 9.5 times over. The company is not burning cash, and share count has drifted down about 0.9% a year over the four years to March 2026. None of that is dramatic. It is the profile of a business that can keep buying small bolt-on assets and retiring a little stock without ever having to ask anyone's permission.

Bear Case

Start with geography, because it is the variable with the most leverage and the least attention. The company's own filing places the majority of its worldwide production outside the United States. Its risk disclosure then names the obvious consequence, listing among the things that could move results "significant tariffs and other restrictions on foreign imports imposed by the U.S. and related countermeasures are taken by impacted foreign countries". A manufacturer that makes abroad and sells globally is exposed twice, once to the tariff itself and once to the currency the receipts arrive in. The second-quarter outlook rests on a specific euro-to-dollar rate, which tells you how tightly reported earnings are wired to something management does not control.

Input costs sit on the same side of the ledger. The 10-K warns that "Raw material costs may continue to increase in the coming years due to market fluctuation and the use of PCR resin", and recycled resin is not an optional input when customers are writing sustainability targets into their own supply contracts. Aptar also flags that its revenue and results "may suffer upon the bankruptcy, insolvency or other credit failure of our customers", which for a supplier to beauty brands is a live rather than theoretical concern.

Now the part the quote actually rests on. Today's price pays about 19 times company-wide operating income, and to make that arithmetic work operating profit has to compound at roughly 7.7% a year across a five-year stage before settling to a slower terminal pace. The rate itself is not exotic. Aptar has managed something close to it. What the price needs is the run: five consecutive years with no destocking cycle in Beauty, no resin spike that outpaces pass-through, no year where a large customer reformulates. Against that, the 10-K reports that "core sales, which exclude acquisitions and changes in foreign currency rates, increased by 2% in 2025 compared to 2024". The distance between that underlying pace and the compounding the quote embeds gets bridged by acquisitions and mix, and both are choices rather than certainties.

That bridge costs money, and the balance sheet shows where it went. Long-term obligations grew by roughly two-thirds over the course of 2025. The 10-K notes that "On July 2, 2024, we entered into a term loan with a syndicate of banks (the "Term Loan"). The Term Loan matures in July 2027." Nothing about that is alarming on its own. It does mean the deal engine has already drawn on capacity, and the cheapest bolt-ons tend to get bought first. The royalty streams carry their own clock too: the filing states that these contracts "typically have a set expiration date" and that a failure to renew or replace them would show up in revenue.

If the durability read is wrong, the fall is not to a slightly lower multiple. The methods that value what Aptar earns right now, crediting no growth at all, sit a very long way beneath the current price, and the earnings-power group in particular is more than five times the distance the peer-multiple group shows. Almost the entire quote above the no-growth valuations is therefore a bet on continuation. The margin evidence gives that bet a hurdle: WST, the peer with genuinely pharma-grade economics, earns a 20.3% operating margin while Aptar earns 13.2%. Buyers are paying for a pharma-company outcome and receiving, so far, a hybrid one.

Valuation

Nineteen times company-wide operating income is what the current quote costs, and the assumption embedded in it is specific rather than vague. Working the price backwards, operating profit has to compound at roughly 7.7% a year over a five-year stage, then fade to a slower terminal rate, for the arithmetic to close. Against Aptar's own recent record that rate is not a stretch. The stretch is duration: the price needs the pace held, year after year, without an interruption.

The methods disagree in a way that is easy to read once grouped. Only the forward-growth methods reach today's quote, sitting about 19% under it. The peer-multiple methods sit about 26% under. The earnings-power methods, which capitalize a normalized five-year average of operating profit at the cost of capital and credit no growth whatsoever, sit about 141% under. That spread is the information. Buyers are not paying for the profit stream as it stands today; they are paying for its continuation, and no static method can price continuation because static methods do not assume any.

The one method that actually touches the quote deserves to be understood on its own terms. It projects six years of cash flow and then values everything after that by applying a cash-profit multiple to the final year, holding today's multiple unchanged in the base case and flexing it either side for the low and high runs. Holding it unchanged is a choice, not a finding. If the market ever decides a hybrid pharma-and-beauty converter belongs nearer the packaging end of its cohort, that terminal assumption travels with it, and the only method that reaches the price stops reaching it.

Cohort position sharpens rather than resolves the question. Aptar's trailing operating margin of 13.2% is comfortably above the commodity converters, with GPK at a 7.0% operating margin, PKG at 11.7% and CCK at 12.2%, and comfortably below WST at 20.3%. The filing supports the reason for that midpoint: Pharma carries 46% of revenue, Beauty 35% of net sales against 32% of total assets, and Closures the rest. A company built half from regulated drug-delivery components and half from consumer packaging will earn a blended margin, and the market is currently setting the price as though the blend were resolving toward the drug-delivery end.

The balance sheet neither adds much risk nor removes much. Net debt runs just under 950 million dollars, or 1.89 times operating profit, with interest covered roughly 9.5 times and no cash burn. Share count has fallen about 0.9% a year over the four years to March 2026. That is a capital structure with room to absorb a bad year. What it cannot absorb is a re-rating, because the distance between today's quote and the no-growth valuations is not a solvency question. It is a question about how long good things last.

Catalysts

The most recent print, delivered April 30, 2026, was a revenue beat with an earnings complication underneath it. First-quarter revenue came in at $982.87 million against a consensus near $955.95 million, up 10.8% year on year, while the company's own adjusted earnings measure of $1.19 per share cleared the $1.15 consensus but fell 8% against the prior year on a constant-currency basis. Volume and price are moving in one direction, translation and cost in the other. That tension is the thing to track across the next two prints.

Guidance for the second quarter of 2026 sits in a range of $1.32 to $1.40 on the same adjusted basis, assuming an effective tax rate of 22.5% to 24.5% and a 1.18 euro-to-dollar exchange rate. The currency assumption is doing real work in that range, which is why a euro move of any size is a legitimate reason to revisit the number rather than a rounding detail.

On the product side, Aptar Pharma announced on July 17, 2026 an integrated system-level testing and performance package for injectable drug delivery, aimed initially at partner pre-filled syringe platforms that use its rigid needle shields and PremiumCoat elastomeric plungers, including for highly viscous biologics. The commercial logic is straightforward. The earlier a customer can see how an assembled system behaves with their molecule, the earlier Aptar's components get locked into the submission. It will not move a quarter. It is the mechanism by which the injectables growth already reported keeps compounding.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Pharma (reported)

• WST (WEST PHARMACEUTICAL SERVICES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …from smaller regional companies such as SMC Ltd. to large global assembly manufacturers such as Phillips Medisize. Given the cost pressures they face, many of our customers look to reduce costs by sourcing from low-cost locations. We seek to differentiate ourselves by leveraging our global capabilities and reputation…
• FY2025 10-K: . We compete with several companies across our major product lines. Because of the special nature of these products, competition is based primarily on product design and performance, although total cost is becoming increasingly important as pharmaceutical companies continue with aggressive cost-control programs across…
• SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …of dispensing and specialty closures for the fragrance and beauty, food, beverage, personal and health care, home care and lawn and garden markets. Our dispensing and specialty closures business provides customers with an extensive variety of innovative dispensing system solutions, including integrated dispensing…
• FY2025 10-K: …our products primarily by a direct sales force, including manufacturer's representatives, and for our custom containers business, in part, through a network of distributors. Because of the high cost of transporting empty containers, our metal containers business generally sells to customers within a 300 mile radius…
• GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …that rising interest rates, a global or regional recession or higher inflation may have on its customers or suppliers. Additionally, it is unable to predict the potential effects that any future pandemic or other global health emergency, widespread military and geopolitical conflicts, or other social and political…
• FY2025 10-K: …with the goal of delivering packaging solutions that are more circular, more functional and more convenient. Acquisitions, Closures and Dispositions In May 2025, the Company closed its Middletown, Ohio, recycled paperboard manufacturing facility. For more information, see Note 18. Exit Activities in the Notes to…
• CCK (CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Public health and government officials have become increasingly concerned about the health consequences associated with over-consumption of certain types of beverages, such as sugar-sweetened beverages and including those sold by certain of the Company's significant customers. Possible new federal, state, or local…
• FY2025 10-K: …CUSTOMERS The Company's largest beverage can customers consist of many of the leading manufacturers and marketers of packaged consumer products in the world, including Anheuser-Busch InBev, Coca-Cola, Heineken, Keurig Dr Pepper, Molson Coors, Pepsi-Cola, and Refresco, among others. In addition to sales to Coca-Cola…

Beauty (reported)

• AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
• FY2025 10-K: …Our business strategy is focused on three elements: customers, sustainability and innovation, and portfolio. Customer We embrace a growth-oriented, customer-first mindset, leveraging our global scale and capabilities to deliver exceptional value. We empower our teams with the tools, processes, and skills needed to…
• FY2025 10-K: …in a breach by our employees of various laws and regulations, including those relating to money laundering, corruption, export control, fraud, bribery, insider trading, antitrust, competition, and economic sanctions, whether due to a lack of integrity or awareness or otherwise. We have implemented safeguards,…
• SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …of dispensing and specialty closures for the fragrance and beauty, food, beverage, personal and health care, home care and lawn and garden markets. Our dispensing and specialty closures business provides customers with an extensive variety of innovative dispensing system solutions, including integrated dispensing…
• FY2025 10-K: EBIT excluding corporate expense). Since 1987, we have improved our market position for our custom containers business, with net sales increasing at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.3 percent. We manufacture custom designed and stock plastic containers for food and beverage products, including peanut…
• GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …customers include GlaxoSmithKline, Bayer, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott, Novartis, L'Oréal S.A., Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive. The Company also sells paperboard in the open market to independent and integrated paperboard packaging producers. Sales of the Company's principal products are primarily accomplished…
• FY2025 10-K: …from external sources. The various bleached, unbleached and recycled grades of paperboard that the Company produces internally and buys externally offer distinctly different combinations of strength, printability, appearance and recycled content, as well as other functional and non-functional characteristics of…
• CCK (CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Public health and government officials have become increasingly concerned about the health consequences associated with over-consumption of certain types of beverages, such as sugar-sweetened beverages and including those sold by certain of the Company's significant customers. Possible new federal, state, or local…
• FY2025 10-K: …engineering services and technical support. These capabilities facilitate (1) the identification of new and/or expanded market opportunities by working directly with customers to develop new packaging products or enhance existing packaging products through the application of new technologies that better differentiate…

Closures (reported)

• SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …of dispensing and specialty closures for the fragrance and beauty, food, beverage, personal and health care, home care and lawn and garden markets. Our dispensing and specialty closures business provides customers with an extensive variety of innovative dispensing system solutions, including integrated dispensing…
• FY2025 10-K: …the pass through of changes in raw material, labor and other manufacturing costs, thereby significantly reducing the exposure of our results of operations to the volatility of these costs. Our metal closures and metal containers supply agreements with our customers provide for the pass through of changes in our metal…
• AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
• FY2025 10-K: …2024-06-30 0001748790 us-gaap:EmployeeSeveranceMember 2024-07-01 2025-06-30 0001748790 us-gaap:FacilityClosingMember 2024-07-01 2025-06-30 0001748790 us-gaap:OtherRestructuringMember 2024-07-01 2025-06-30 0001748790 us-gaap:EmployeeSeveranceMember 2025-06-30 0001748790 us-gaap:FacilityClosingMember 2025-06-30…
• FY2025 10-K: …amcr:OtherRestructuringPlansMember 2024-07-01 2025-06-30 0001748790 amcr:OtherRestructuringPlansMember 2023-07-01 2024-06-30 0001748790 us-gaap:EmployeeSeveranceMember amcr:OtherRestructuringPlansMember 2023-07-01 2024-06-30 0001748790 us-gaap:FacilityClosingMember amcr:OtherRestructuringPlansMember 2023-07-01…
• GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …owned or leased and operated by the Company as of December 31, 2025 is set forth below. The Company's buildings are adequate and suitable for the business of the Company and have sufficient capacity to meet current requirements. The Company also leases certain smaller facilities, warehouses and office space…
• FY2025 10-K: …TN Marion, OH Prosperity, SC Visalia, CA Gresham, OR (a) Mississauga, Ontario (a) Querétaro, Mexico (a) Wausau, WI Groveport, OH (a) Mitchell, SD Shelbyville, IL Wayne, NJ Hamel, MN Monroe, LA (a) Sioux Falls, SD (a)(b) West Monroe, LA Irvine, CA Monterrey, Mexico (a) Solon, OH Winnipeg, Manitoba Kalamazoo, MI New…
• CCK (CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: France Trevose, PA (T) La Crosse, WI Izmit, Turkey Bangpoo, Thailand (F) Florence, KY Dinslaken, Germany Spartanburg, SC (A) Worland, WY Osmaniye, Turkey Hat Yai, Thailand (F) Fordyce, AR Goldkronach, Germany Chippewa Falls, WI (T) Cabreuva, Brazil Dubai, UAE Nakhon Pathom, Thailand (F) Forest, VA (2) Hilden, Germany…
• FY2025 10-K: …Canada Pohang, South Korea Amatlan de los Reyes, Sriracha, Thailand (2) Mexico Qingdao Shandong, China Cienega de Flores, Mexico All properties above, with the exception of Transit Packaging, are beverage facilities unless otherwise indicated by the following: A: Aerosol F: Food and closure P: Promotional packaging…
• PKG (PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA)
• FY2025 10-K: 025 2024 Earnings per diluted share, as reported in accordance with GAAP $ 8.58 $ 8.93 Special items: Facilities closure and other (income) costs (a) (0.09 ) 0.03 Wallula mill restructuring (b) 1.07 - Acquisition and integration-related costs (c) 0.28 - Jackson mill conversion-related activities (d) - 0.08 Total…
• FY2025 10-K: …pkg:Employee utr:GT UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form 10-K ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.