American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP): what the price assumes

boothcheck covers American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) but does not put one priced-in number on it: here the defensible answer is the evidence rather than a point estimate. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating. Narrative composed 2026-07-25.

Generated: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/AEP

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The price sits below what even a 5%/yr operating-profit decline would warrant; the inversion reports a bound, not a solved growth path.

Solve inputs: computed at a 5.9% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=13)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• A multi-state footprint of regulated wires and generation is being rebuilt around one new customer type, which the annual report describes as rapid commercial customer class load growth, especially from data processing and other energy-intensive operations, and management has raised the five-year capital plan to $78 billion from $72 billion to serve it.
• The financing of that plan is the specific risk: net debt already stands at $50.7 billion, roughly 9.1 times operating profit, with operating income covering the interest bill only about 2.7 times over.
• Second-quarter results arrive on July 30, 2026, and the number to watch is not the quarter but whether the contracted large-load pipeline of 63 gigawatts by 2030, nearly all of it data centers and most of it in Texas, is still converting into signed agreements.

Bull Case

Valuation methods are built to reward companies that turn a dollar of revenue into more profit than they used to. Regulated utilities do not work that way, and every standard approach struggles with them for the same reason: a utility's earnings are a permitted return on the capital it has put in the ground, so the variable that matters is not margin expansion or sales growth but how much capital regulators will let it invest and at what allowed return. Run a model that rewards operating leverage across a business with no operating leverage and it will systematically undervalue the thing that actually creates value, which is the size of the asset base.

That is why the capital plan is the whole bull case. Management raised the 2026 to 2030 investment plan to $78 billion from $72 billion and described line of sight to over $10 billion of additional investment potential beyond it. In a regulated business, spending that is approved and placed into rates is not a cost. It is the mechanism by which earnings grow. Management's own framing of the resulting trajectory is an operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% a year through 2030.

The demand behind it is unusually well documented for a utility. The 10-K describes an industry undergoing a historic transformation, fueled by rapid commercial customer class load growth, especially from data processing and other energy-intensive operations, and AEP has quantified its own share: 63 gigawatts of incremental load committed by 2030, of which 41 gigawatts sits in its Texas footprint, with 7 gigawatts of new agreements signed in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Load growth of that shape has not been available to a regulated utility in decades; for most of the last twenty years the sector's volume story was efficiency-driven decline.

The company has also done the unglamorous work of protecting existing customers from the build, which is what keeps a growth story from becoming a political problem. The annual report describes large-load tariffs across its jurisdictions and states plainly that In practice, these provisions reduce risks around the build out of large load infrastructure on existing customers, promoting stability and affordability. A residential customer who ends up paying for a data center's substation eventually becomes a regulatory commission that stops approving substations. Getting the tariff structure right in advance is the difference between a decade of approvals and a decade of hearings.

The operating economics are not the constraint. AEP earns a 24.6% trailing operating margin, which sits comfortably inside its vertically integrated peer set: Southern (SO) at 24.2%, Duke (DUK) at 27.2%, Dominion (D) at 26.2%, Xcel (XEL) at 18.0% and Evergy (EVRG) at 25.9%. Return on equity runs about 11.9% on $58.14 of book value a share. This is a normally profitable regulated utility, not a turnaround, and the bull case does not require it to become anything different.

The guidance record is worth reading as evidence of how this management team behaves rather than as a promise. Since 2006 they have raised guidance on 13 occasions and reaffirmed it 139 more, without a single recorded cut. A utility management team that reaffirms relentlessly is telling you the earnings stream is administratively determined and largely knowable a year ahead. That predictability is precisely what the standard methods cannot see when they read the trailing income statement of a company in the middle of the largest build in its history.

Bear Case

Every utility in the country is telling the same story right now, and they are all telling it at once. Data-center demand is real, but so is the industry's response to it: transmission, generation and interconnection capacity being ordered simultaneously by dozens of regulated companies competing for the same turbines, transformers, switchgear and linemen. Capacity added into a demand signal everyone can see tends to arrive together and tends to arrive late, and the cost of arriving late is borne by whoever committed capital before the demand was contracted. The question a bear asks about a build cycle is not whether the demand exists. It is what happens to the last third of the capital spent.

Concentration makes that question sharper here than for most peers. Of the 63 gigawatts of incremental load AEP has committed by 2030, 41 gigawatts sits in Texas, and nearly all of it is data centers. That is one state, one customer industry, and a small number of counterparties whose own capital plans are set by a handful of technology companies. Utilities normally spread risk across millions of households and thousands of businesses. This build does the opposite, and it does so in the jurisdiction that is still writing the rules: the 10-K notes that PUCT is currently drafting rules through multiple active dockets related to large load interconnection standards, net-metering arrangements for co-location, large load forecasting criteria, large load reliability/demand reduction and transmission cost allocation review to implement SB 6. The rules governing the largest piece of the plan are still being written.

Regulatory recovery is the mechanism a bear should worry about most, because it is where a utility's earnings actually get decided and where they can be taken away years after the money is spent. The annual report discloses that AEP Texas has collected interim base rate increases subject to later review, and states the consequence plainly: A base rate review could result in a refund to customers if AEP Texas incurs a disallowance of the transmission or distribution investment on which an interim increase was based. Elsewhere the filing is blunter still, saying that Management is unable to predict the future impact to net income, cash flows and financial condition arising from the future changes in OPCo's rate setting mechanisms. Spending capital on the expectation of a return that a commission grants retrospectively is the business model, and it is also the risk.

The balance sheet is where the cycle and the regulation meet. Net debt stands at $50.7 billion, roughly 9.1 times operating profit, and operating income covers the interest bill about 2.7 times over. That coverage is adequate rather than generous, and it does not carry much slack. A capital plan of $78 billion over five years cannot be funded from $3.8 billion of trailing net income and a dividend obligation; it will be funded with more debt and more equity, and the share count has already risen 1.9% a year over the four years to March 2026. Both funding channels get more expensive precisely when rates rise or when a commission signals it will not grant the return the plan assumed.

Set against that, what the shares are asking for is genuinely undemanding, which is the honest version of the bear case rather than a claim that the price is too high. At about 22 times operating income the market is not paying for the growth plan at all; the price is below what even a 5% a year decline in operating profit would warrant. The static lenses agree the price is not stretched, landing about 1.27 times under it on peer multiples and about 1.6 times under on the asset-based approaches, while the cash-flow methods land essentially on top of it. So the bear is not arguing the stock is expensive. It is arguing that a company committing this much capital into a demand source that is concentrated, politically visible and still being written into rules, with leverage already near nine times operating profit, carries a wider spread of outcomes than a utility multiple normally implies. Cheap is not the same as safe.

Valuation

Run the price backwards and it does not ask for growth at all. At $135.54 on July 25, 2026, the market pays about 22 times company-wide operating income. Against a cost of capital near 6% for regulated earnings, that multiple is lower than what even a 5% a year decline in operating profit would warrant. There is no growth assumption to test here, which is unusual for a company in the middle of the largest construction program in its history. The market is pricing this as a stream that could shrink.

Two things sit in tension in that sentence, and they are worth reconciling rather than picking between. On a discounted cash-flow basis, using a low discount rate appropriate to regulated earnings, the price requires nothing. On static multiple comparisons it looks slightly full: the peer-multiple methods land about 1.27 times under the price, the asset-value methods about 1.6 times under, and the earnings-power approach, which capitalizes normalized operating profit with no growth credited at all, about 1.85 times under. The cash-flow methods land essentially on top of the price. The two readings are measuring different things. The static lenses value trailing profit against book equity of $58.14 a share. The forward lens values a regulated earnings stream at a discount rate that reflects how administratively determined that stream is. A utility with a 24.6% operating margin and $6.76 of trailing earnings a share is not a growth stock in any lens, and the gap between the readings is the value of the regulation itself.

Where that leaves an investor is with a capital plan rather than a multiple. Regulated earnings are a permitted return on invested capital, so the honest way to read this price is against the $78 billion the company intends to spend between 2026 and 2030, up from a prior plan of $72 billion. Whether that spend earns its allowed return is decided in rate cases, and the filings show both sides of that process at work: interim increases already collected in Texas that remain subject to later review and possible refund, and a pending Ohio distribution case where the PUCO staff filed its required report recommending a net annual decrease in distribution base rates.

Peer comparison is informative but narrower than usual, because utility operating margins cluster. Southern (SO) runs 24.2%, Duke (DUK) 27.2%, Dominion (D) 26.2%, Entergy (ETR) 23.1% and Xcel (XEL) 18.0%. AEP sits mid-pack. Nothing in the cohort suggests a structural profitability problem, and nothing suggests a structural advantage either. On the transmission-and-distribution side, where the growth capital is heaviest, Edison International (EIX) at 30.8% and Public Service Enterprise (PEG) at 25.2% show what a wires-weighted mix can earn once built.

The balance sheet is the constraint that actually bounds the outcome. Net debt of $50.7 billion is about 9.1 times operating profit on a pre-tax basis, and interest is covered roughly 2.7 times. That is the normal shape of a utility, but it leaves the equity holder's return sensitive to two things outside management's control: the rate at which the company can refinance, and the allowed return commissions grant on new capital. The share count has risen 1.9% a year over the four years to March 2026, and a plan this size will keep that direction intact. A price that requires no growth is not the same as a price with no risk in it; here the risk is a financing cost and a regulatory decision, not a demand forecast.

Catalysts

The May 5, 2026 first-quarter report did two things at once. It delivered GAAP earnings of $874 million, or $1.61 a share, and it raised the five-year capital investment plan to $78 billion covering 2026 through 2030, up from $72 billion, with management describing line of sight to over $10 billion of additional investment potential beyond that. Full-year 2026 guidance on the company's own operating-earnings basis was reaffirmed at $6.15 to $6.45 a share, alongside an annual operating-earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% through 2030.

The load figures in that release are the leading indicator worth tracking. AEP signed 7 gigawatts of new large-load agreements during the quarter and now counts 63 gigawatts of incremental committed load by 2030, with 41 gigawatts of that in Texas. Those are contracted commitments rather than forecasts, which is the important distinction, but they are commitments made by customers whose own capital plans can change faster than a transmission line can be built. The rate at which the pipeline converts into signed agreements, quarter by quarter, is the cleanest read on whether the demand is firming or flattening.

Second-quarter results are scheduled for July 30, 2026. Beyond the quarter itself, the regulatory calendar carries more weight than usual. Texas is still writing the rules governing large-load interconnection, forecasting and transmission cost allocation under SB 6, and the outcome determines who pays for the infrastructure serving these customers and on what terms. In Ohio, the distribution rate case remains open, with staff having recommended a net annual decrease in distribution base rates. Neither of those decisions will move a quarterly earnings print. Both will shape what the capital plan is worth.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Vertically Integrated Utilities (VIU) (reported)

• SO (SOUTHERN CO)
• FY2025 10-K: …for under various revenue accounting guidance, including revenue from contracts with customers, lease, derivative, and regulatory accounting. See Notes 4, 9, and 14 for additional information. Traditional Electric Operating Companies The majority of the revenues of the traditional electric operating companies are…
• FY2025 10-K: …and controlled through the application of centralized economic dispatch. Under the IIC, each traditional electric operating company and Southern Power Company retains its lowest cost energy resources for the benefit of its own customers and delivers any excess energy to the Southern Company power pool for use in…
• DUK (DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …and consumed with billings generally occurring monthly and related payments due within 30 days, depending on regulatory requirements. In no event does the timing between payment and delivery of the goods and services exceed one year. Using this output method for revenue recognition provides a faithful depiction of…
• FY2025 10-K: …adjustments related to the mergers with Progress Energy and Piedmont that are excluded from fair value of long-term debt. At both December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024, fair value of cash and cash equivalents, accounts and notes receivable, accounts payable, notes payable and commercial paper, and nonrecourse…
• D (DOMINION ENERGY, INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …provide certain commitments to Virginia Power, including cash deposits, during the project construction period. If the customer ceases construction of its facility, Virginia Power will attempt to redeploy the equipment to another customer, returning the original deposit and requiring a new deposit from the new…
• FY2025 10-K: …previously approved phases and proposed phase eight of certain new underground distribution facilities. (5) This application includes $ 120 million in total revenue requirement for certain previously approved electric distribution grid transformation projects, $ 178 million for previously approved phases and proposed…
• XEL (XCEL ENERGY INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …transmits, distributes and sells electricity. NSP-Minnesota and NSP-Wisconsin electric operations are managed on the NSP System. NSP-Wisconsin also purchases, transports, distributes and sells natural gas to retail customers and transports customer-owned natural gas. Natural gas customers 0.1 million Total assets…
• FY2025 10-K: …debt securities are determined by a third party pricing service using recent trades and observable spreads from benchmark interest rates for similar securities. Interest rate derivatives - Fair values of interest rate derivatives are based on broker quotes that utilize current market interest rate forecasts. 65 Table…
• WEC (WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the power plants and distribution facilities built to serve them and operating and transmission costs allocated to their usage. The proposed tariffs are designed so that the costs associated with these VLCs are not subsidized by or shifted to residential or business customers. The two new tariffs will work in tandem…
• FY2025 10-K: …2024-12-31 0000783325 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:PublicUtilitiesMember wec:ExternalRevenuesMember wec:WisconsinMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000783325 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:PublicUtilitiesMember wec:ExternalRevenuesMember wec:IllinoisMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000783325…
• ETR (ENTERGY CORP /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …of receiving applicable regulatory approvals from the APSC, the LPSC, the MPSC, the City Council, or the PUCT, depending on applicable regulatory rules and laws and the circumstances of the proposed investments. Large-scale data center customers often have sustainability goals and commitments that may require the…
• FY2025 10-K: 237 Table of Contents Entergy Corporation and Subsidiaries Notes to Financial Statements NOTE 17. VARIABLE INTEREST ENTITIES (Entergy Corporation, Entergy Arkansas, Entergy Louisiana, Entergy Mississippi, Entergy New Orleans, Entergy Texas, and System Energy) Under applicable authoritative accounting guidance, a…
• EVRG (EVERGY, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …interconnecting with Evergy's utility subsidiaries. The Evergy Companies are experiencing current and projected load demands that exceed recent experience, creating a business need for new power generating resources and transmission facilities. Much of this demand is driven by interconnecting with and providing power…
• FY2025 10-K: …evrg:EvergyKansasCentralIncMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001711269 evrg:ElectricUtilityCustomerClassWholesaleMember evrg:EvergyKansasCentralIncMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001711269 evrg:ElectricUtilityCustomerClassWholesaleMember evrg:EvergyKansasCentralIncMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0001711269…
• LNT (ALLIANT ENERGY CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …if applicable, redemption rights held by us or by others. Alliant Energy's non-utility businesses and Corporate Services record to interest expense in the period of retirement any unamortized debt issuance costs and debt premiums or discounts on debt retired early. NOTE 1 (l) Current Expected Credit Losses Estimates…
• FY2025 10-K: …Competition - Retail electric customers in Iowa and Wisconsin currently do not have the ability to choose their electric supplier, and IPL and WPL have obligations to serve all retail electric customers in their service territories. Although electric service in Iowa and Wisconsin is regulated, IPL and WPL face…

Transmission and Distribution Utilities (T&D) (reported)

• ED (CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …system in the United States by producing and delivering approximat ely 16,975 MMlb of steam annually to approximately 1,490 customers in parts of Manhattan. CON EDISON ANNUAL REPORT 2025 15 O&R Electric O&R and its utility subsidiary, Rockland Electric Company (RECO) (together referred to herein as O&R) provide…
• FY2025 10-K: …Facilities," below) and provided all of their customers the choice to buy electricity or gas from the Utilities or other suppliers (see "Electric Operations - Electric Sales and Deliveries" and "Gas Operations - Gas Sales and Deliveries," below). In 2025 , 56 percent of th e electricity and 33 percent of the gas…
• EIX (EDISON INTERNATIONAL)
• FY2025 10-K: …by the CPUC in 2026. 2026 FERC Formula Rate Annual Update In November 2025 , SCE filed its 2026 annual transmission revenue requirement update with the FERC, with rates effective January 1, 2026 . The update reflects a 2026 transmission revenue requirement of $1.5 billion, which is a $157 million, or 12%, increase…
• FY2025 10-K: …by reducing the electricity they purchase from SCE and whether to adopt other mechanisms that would allow SCE to recover its cost of service and the costs of many public policy programs to another pending proceeding. The final decision also provides an enhanced subsidy for lower income customers and customers who…
• PCG (PG&E CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …lines deliver electricity at high voltages and over long distances from power sources to transmission substations closer to customers. A strong transmission system supports reliable and affordable service, ability to meet state energy policy goals, and support for a diverse generation mix, including renewable energy.…
• FY2025 10-K: …distribution network. Emanating from each substation are primary and secondary distribution lines connected to local transformers and switching equipment that link distribution lines and provide delivery to customers. In some cases, third parties, such as municipal and other utilities, who generate or procure their…
• PPL (PPL Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …the summer period based on average weather conditions at the solar facility. 28 Table of Contents For a description of LG&E's and KU's service areas, see "Item 1. Business - General - Segment Information - Kentucky Regulated Segment." At December 31, 2025, LG&E's and KU's electricity transmission and distribution…
• FY2025 10-K: …from onshore producing regions in South Texas, East Texas, North Louisiana and Arkansas, as well as gas originating in the Marcellus and Utica production areas. (PPL, LG&E and KU) Transmission LG&E and KU contract with the Tennessee Valley Authority to act as their transmission reliability coordinator and contract…
• FE (FIRSTENERGY CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …and coal transportation operations, at book value to WMB Marketing Ventures, LLC and Pinesdale LLC for $47.5 million. Also included in Corporate/Other for segment reporting is 67 MWs of generation capacity, representing AE Supply's OVEC capacity entitlement. As of December 31, 2025, Corporate/Other had approximately…
• FY2025 10-K: …ASC 606 and regulated utilities are permitted to continue to recognize such revenues in accordance with existing practice but are presented separately from revenue arising from contracts with customers. Transmission infrastructure owned and operated by the Transmission Companies and certain of FirstEnergy's Electric…
• ES (EVERSOURCE ENERGY)
• FY2025 10-K: …of the wholesale transmission business in rates charged to their customers. Purchased Power, Purchased Natural Gas and Transmission expense includes costs associated with providing electric generation service supply and natural gas to all customers who have not migrated to third-party suppliers, the cost of energy…
• FY2025 10-K: …allocated by ISO-NE to maintain the wholesale electric market. The transmission charge is reconciled annually to actual costs incurred, and reviewed by the DPU, with any difference refunded to, or recovered from, customers. • A transition charge that represents costs to be collected primarily from previously held…
• PEG (PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …utility, PSE&G, distributes electric energy and natural gas to customers within a designated service territory running diagonally across New Jersey where approximately 6.8 million people, or about 74% of New Jersey's population resides. Products and Services Our utility operations primarily earn margins through: •…
• FY2025 10-K: …transmission system in the Mid-Atlantic Region, 2 Table of Contents including New Jersey and the surrounding states. We provide distribution service to 2.4 million electric customers and 1.9 million gas customers in a service area that covers approximately 2,600 square miles running diagonally across New Jersey. We…

AEP Transmission Holdco (AEPTHCo) (reported)

• FE (FIRSTENERGY CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …Company, LLC, a joint venture between FEV, WMB Marketing Ventures, LLC and Pinesdale LLC Grid Growth Grid Growth Ventures, LLC, a holding company formed by FET and Transource on September 29, 2025 Grid Growth EHV Grid Growth EHV Holdings, LLC, a subsidiary of Grid Growth Grid Growth Subsidiaries The six subsidiaries…
• FY2025 10-K: …to Financial Statements of the Registrants for additional details. FirstEnergy's Stand-Alone Transmission segment, which consists of FE's ownership in FET and KATCo, includes transmission infrastructure owned and operated by the Transmission Companies and used to transmit electricity. The segment's revenues are…
• PPL (PPL Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …and PPL Electric does not own or operate any generation facilities. The PPL Electric transmission business, operating under a FERC-approved PJM Open Access Transmission Tariff, is subject to competition pursuant to FERC Order 1000 from entities that are not incumbent PJM transmission owners with respect to the…
• FY2025 10-K: …before the FERC. On October 16, 2014, the FERC issued an order on the first complaint, Opinion No. 531-A, resetting the base ROE applicable to transmission assets under the ISO-NE OATT from 11.14 % to 10.57 % effective as of October 16, 2014 and establishing a maximum ROE of 11.74 %. On April 14, 2017, this order was…
• ES (EVERSOURCE ENERGY)
• FY2025 10-K: …elect to purchase natural gas from each Eversource natural gas utility or may contract separately with a gas supply operator. Revenue is not recorded for the sale of the electricity or the natural gas commodity to customers who have contracted separately with these suppliers, only the delivery to a customer, as the…
• FY2025 10-K: C New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission PURA Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Authority SEC U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Other Terms and Abbreviations: ADIT Accumulated Deferred Income Taxes AFUDC Allowance For Funds Used During Construction AOCI Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income ARO Asset…
• ED (CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …Total (Millions of Dollars) Con Edison Transmission $ 60 $ - $ 60 Total $ 60 $ - $ 60 Con Edison Transmission - Con Edison has guaranteed payment by Con Edison Transmission of the contributions Con Edison Transmission agreed to make to New York Transco LLC (New York Transco). Con Edison Transmission owns a 45.7…
• FY2025 10-K: …ed:ElectricitySwapsMember us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel3Member us-gaap:ValuationTechniqueDiscountedCashFlowMember srt:MinimumMember 2025-12-31 0001047862 ed:MeasurementInputCommodityForwardCapacityPriceMember ed:ElectricitySwapsMember us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel3Member…
• EIX (EDISON INTERNATIONAL)
• FY2025 10-K: …certification which will remain in effect until the OEIS acts on SCE's 2025 safety certification request which was submitted on December 2, 2025. Once issued, SCE's 2025 safety certification will be valid for 12 months from the date of issuance and will remain effective until the subsequent approval process is…
• FY2025 10-K: …comply with its rules and requirements, of up to $100,000, for each offense, which could be assessed daily for a continuing violation. The CPUC's enforcement policy authorizes the staff of the CPUC to draft proposed Administrative Consent Orders and Administrative Enforcement Orders, both of which can include fines…

Generation & Marketing (G&M) (reported)

• VST (Vistra Corp.)
• FY2025 10-K: RetailSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001692819 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember vistra:IntangibleAmortizationAndOtherRevenuesMember vistra:TexasSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001692819 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember vistra:IntangibleAmortizationAndOtherRevenuesMember vistra:EastSegmentMember 2025-01-01…
• FY2025 10-K: AndSalesMember us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel3Member us-gaap:IncomeApproachValuationTechniqueMember 2025-12-31 0001692819 vistra:HourlyPriceCurveShapeMember vistra:ElectricityPurchasesAndSalesMember us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel3Member us-gaap:IncomeApproachValuationTechniqueMember srt:MinimumMember 2025-12-31 0001692819…
• NRG (NRG Energy, Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …nrg:ProductsAndServicesRetailRevenueMember nrg:BusinessSolutionsCustomersMember nrg:TexasSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001013871 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember nrg:ProductsAndServicesRetailRevenueMember nrg:BusinessSolutionsCustomersMember nrg:EastSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001013871…
• FY2025 10-K: …2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001013871 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember nrg:ProductsAndServicesTotalRetailMember nrg:VivintSmartHomeIncMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001013871 us-gaap:IntersegmentEliminationMember nrg:ProductsAndServicesTotalRetailMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001013871…
• CEG (CONSTELLATION ENERGY CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …response programs can rapidly increase supply or depress demand. In addition, in some markets, the supply of electricity can exceed demand during some hours of the day, resulting in lower market prices, including periods of negative pricing, and loss of revenue for baseload generating plants such as our nuclear…
• FY2025 10-K: …to find suppliers has slowed in recent years, we have remained the market leader in direct C&I sales with over 32% of the C&I market share of direct customer business, driven by our highly experienced and long-tenor direct sales team. Wholesale Market Our wholesale channel-to-market involves the sale of electricity…
• TLN (Talen Energy Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …which may include operators of various competing generation technologies, such as natural gas-fired, coal-fired, and nuclear generation, as well as renewable and other alternative energy sources. Competition is affected by electricity and fuel prices, grid congestion, government subsidies for new and certain existing…
• FY2025 10-K: …on a seasonal basis, with peak power generation and expenses during the winter in the Mid-Atlantic. We ordinarily perform planned facility maintenance during milder non-peak demand periods in the spring and fall to ensure reliability during peak periods. The pattern of fluctuations in our operating results varies…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.