WYNN RESORTS LTD (WYNN): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $95.00, WYNN RESORTS LTD (WYNN) is priced for +1.5% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/WYNN
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | WYNN |
| Company | WYNN RESORTS LTD |
| Current price | $95.00/sh |
| Composition | Casino 62% / Rooms 16% / Food and beverage 15% / Entertainment, retail and other 8% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 5.0% |
| Operating margin today | 15.7% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -10.7pp |
| Implied growth | 1.5% |
| Multiple paid | 17x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 6: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7.8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.23σ |
| cohort percentile (of 212 peers) | 48 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by earnings-power and growth-DCF value, while asset-based lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.61x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 0.71x | 1 | justifies |
| Relative | — | 0 | — |
| Growth | 1.01x | 1 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Earnings, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 4.4%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=6)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $124.17 | 0.77x | no | Exit EV/EBITDA: 10.2x / 12.2x / 14.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 15.1x / 18.0x / 20.9x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $93.86 | 1.01x | yes | Stage 1: 20% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $47.13 | 2.02x | yes | BV/sh $5.51, ROE (TTM) 79.1%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $229.78 | 0.41x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $69.55 | 1.37x | no | Rev $7.4B, growth 6% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.1x / 1.3x / 1.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $50.04 | 1.90x | no | EPS $4.17, growth 1% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=17.80 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $19.93 | 4.77x | no | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.70B × (1−8%) / WACC 4.4% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $78.70 | 1.21x | yes | BV $5.51 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 79.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $22.74 | 4.18x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $4.17 × BVPS $5.51) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $1.80B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 9500.00x | yes | FCF $791.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $0.01 | 9500.00x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.71B (FCF $0.79B − SBC $0.09B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $134.55 | 0.71x | yes | EPS $4.17 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $2.66 | 35.71x | yes | BV $5.51 × (ROIC 2.1% / WACC 4.4%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $7.41B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $156.38 | 0.61x | no | EPS $4.17 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $45.08 | 2.11x | no | EPS $4.17 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wynn Palace | operating | enterprise | $2.3b | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Wynn Macau | operating | enterprise | $1.4b | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Las Vegas Operations | operating | enterprise | $2.6b | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Encore Boston Harbor | operating | enterprise | $846.9m | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $9.3b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 8.64x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 7.94x |
| Interest coverage | 1.9x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -2.6% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
At $105.56 the price sits above some valuation methods and below others. The relative-multiple model lands near $87 and the EV/EBITDA model near $92, so the price carries a premium to peer multiples, while the inversion reads it as within range at about 19x operating income.
The operating story is a recovery firing on two engines. Q1 2026 revenue rose 9% to $1.86 billion, Las Vegas EBITDA margin hit 35%, and Wynn Palace in Macau saw mass drop up 19% and handle up 32% as the premium segment recovered.
The overhang is leverage and a development bet. Net debt is about $9.4 billion with interest coverage near 1.8x, and the company is funding its share of the Wynn Al Marjan resort in the UAE, due to open in 2027.
Bull Case
Where the price sits against the methods tells you this is a recovery bet, not a bubble. Against the $105.56 (June 28, 2026) quote, the relative-multiple model lands near $87 and the EV/EBITDA-relative model near $92, so the stock trades at a premium to peer multiples but not an extreme one, and the inversion characterizes the priced-in assumption as within range: about 19x operating income implying roughly 6.2% operating growth a year, a pace the company has recently delivered. The free-cash-flow and book-anchored models look distorted because Wynn's book value is tiny and its trailing return on equity is enormous at 72%, the artifact of a leveraged, asset-heavy operator. The honest read of the spread is a quality casino franchise priced for continued recovery, supported by earnings-power and peer-multiple value.
The operating momentum is real and geographically balanced. Q1 2026 revenue rose 9.2% to $1.86 billion, beating expectations. Las Vegas delivered $661.9 million of revenue, up nearly 6%, with adjusted property EBITDA of $232.5 million at a 35.1% margin, casino revenue up more than 9%, and revenue per available room up nearly 10% on a 12% increase in room rates. Macau generated $989.2 million of combined revenue with adjusted property EBITDA of $279.4 million, and at Wynn Palace mass drop rose 19% and handle grew 32%, reflecting the recovery of the premium-mass and VIP segments that are Wynn's specialty. The filing describes the Macau operations within a gaming-tax framework tied to gross gaming revenue (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001174922-26-000013), and the higher-end focus is exactly where the Macau recovery is strongest.
The growth option is the UAE. Wynn Al Marjan Island, the first integrated resort in the United Arab Emirates, continues to progress toward a 2027 opening, with remaining cash commitments of $350 million to $450 million for the company's 40% pro-rata share. A first-mover position in a brand-new gaming market with no direct competition is a genuine long-term catalyst that the static models cannot value. The company pays a $0.25 quarterly dividend and has been shrinking its share count, and analysts carry a Strong Buy consensus with average targets well above the current price, in the $120 to $145 range, on the combination of the Macau recovery, Las Vegas strength, and the UAE optionality.
Bear Case
The competitive threat is concentrated in Macau, where Wynn earns the majority of its revenue and where the rivals are formidable. Las Vegas Sands, Galaxy, MGM, Melco, and SJM all operate in the same small enclave under the same concession regime, and each has been investing in non-gaming attractions to win the premium-mass visitor that drives margins. The filing is blunt that the casino-resort and hotel industry is highly competitive, that increased competition could result in a loss of business, and that its Las Vegas operations also face increasing competition (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001174922-26-000013). Wynn's Macau revenue depends on a gaming concession and on Chinese consumer demand and travel policy, both of which sit outside the company's control; a slowdown in the Chinese economy, a tightening of visa or junket rules, or an aggressive capacity expansion by a competitor would pressure the segment that carries the company.
The leverage magnifies every one of those risks. Net debt sits near $9.4 billion against trailing operating income, putting leverage above 8x, and interest coverage is just 1.8x. A casino operator covering its interest less than two times is fragile: a downturn in Macau or Las Vegas gaming volumes would squeeze the cash available to service debt while the company is simultaneously funding the UAE development. The filing details a stack of term loans and notes maturing across 2027 and 2030 (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001174922-26-000013), so refinancing risk is real if credit conditions tighten.
The UAE bet is capital at risk for a payoff years away. Wynn Al Marjan is a multi-billion-dollar first-of-its-kind project, and the company is monitoring the broader Gulf-region situation while taking precautions for its team on the ground, an acknowledgment of geopolitical and execution risk. A new market with no precedent carries demand uncertainty, regulatory development, and construction risk, and the $350 million to $450 million of remaining commitments is cash that cannot reduce leverage in the meantime. The price already trades at a premium to peer multiples, so if Macau competition intensifies, the Chinese consumer weakens, or the UAE timeline slips, a leveraged operator priced for a smooth recovery has meaningful downside, and the Q1 EPS already came in just below estimates despite the revenue beat.
Valuation
The price reads against operating income and peer multiples here, since the book-anchored models are distorted by a tiny equity base. Against the $105.56 quote, the relative-multiple model lands near $87 (a blended sector and trailing P/E), the EV/EBITDA-relative model near $92, and the two-stage excess-return model near $169, while the simple excess-return model lands near $39 and the Graham number near $20. The free-cash-flow models return near-zero figures from a data quirk tied to the leverage and should be set aside. The blended X-ray estimate sits near $87. So the price carries a premium to the relative-multiple and EV/EBITDA lenses, which is why asset-based says expensive while earnings-power and peer-multiple value support it.
Inverting the price gives a moderate assumption. At about 19x company-wide operating income, the price implies operating growth of roughly 6.2% a year for five years, discounted at an 8.1% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth, where each percentage point of cost moves the implied growth about seven points. That implied pace is within what the company has recently delivered, which is why the overall characterization is within range; the multiple sits in the upper half of the peer range, so it is not cheap relative to casino peers.
The practical read is a leveraged, high-quality casino operator trading at a premium peer multiple, priced for a continued Macau and Las Vegas recovery. The UAE resort is upside the operating multiples do not capture, and analyst targets well above the price, $120 to $145, lean on that optionality plus market-share gains. The reverse-DCF is more conservative, crediting only the demonstrated recovery. The leverage means the equity is a geared play on gaming volumes: it amplifies the upside if the recovery continues and the downside if it stalls.
Catalysts
The May Q1 2026 report was the recent catalyst: revenue up 9.2% to $1.86 billion beat expectations, though EPS of $1.25 came in just below the $1.26 estimate. Las Vegas posted a 35% EBITDA margin and Wynn Palace in Macau saw mass drop up 19% and handle up 32%. The next earnings report is the key test of whether the Macau premium-segment recovery and Las Vegas strength continue, since the valuation is priced for the recovery to persist.
Macau monthly gaming revenue is a frequent catalyst in its own right; the market rose 6.7% in May 2026, a positive read for the segment that drives most of Wynn's revenue. Watch Wynn's Macau market share, which analysts expect to gain given its higher-end focus. The Wynn Al Marjan Island resort in the UAE is the long-term catalyst: construction progress and any firming of the 2027 opening timeline would validate the first-mover optionality, while a delay or cost overrun would weigh on the stock. Capital return continues through the $0.25 quarterly dividend and buybacks. The chief risks to the timeline are intensifying Macau competition, a slowdown in the Chinese consumer or travel policy, the high leverage that magnifies any downturn, and execution risk on the UAE project. Analysts hold a Strong Buy consensus with targets well above the current price.
Sources: Wynn Resorts Q1 2026 8-K press release (SEC); BettorsInsider: Wynn Q1 2026 revenue $1.86B, Wynn Palace surges; IAG: Wynn Macau 1Q26 revenue up 14%; Public.com: WYNN analyst forecast; GuruFocus: Macau gaming revenue rises 6.7% in May.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Wynn Palace / Wynn Macau +2 more (reported)
- LVS (LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …our VIP and premium players. The scale and product mix of our Integrated Resorts allow us to participate very effectively in all segments of the market. We believe the mass market segment will continue to exhibit long-term growth as a result of continuing economic growth, expansion of the middle class and increasing…
- FY2025 10-K: …Costs and Expenses Stock-based compensation (2) ( 27 ) Corporate ( 290 ) Pre-opening ( 14 ) Development ( 228 ) Depreciation and amortization ( 1,308 ) Amortization of leasehold interests in land ( 60 ) Loss on disposal or impairment of assets ( 50 ) Operating income 2,402 Other Non-Operating Costs and Expenses…
- MGM (MGM Resorts International)
- FY2025 10-K: …do not enforce gaming debts and MGM Grand Paradise may encounter forums that will refuse to enforce such debts. Moreover, under applicable law, MGM Grand Paradise remains obligated to pay taxes on uncollectible winnings from customers. Even where gaming debts are enforceable, they may not be collectible. Our…
- FY2025 10-K: …and other" in the following segment disclosures to reconcile to consolidated results. The Company's chief operating decision maker ("CODM") is the Chief Executive Officer. The CODM uses and monitors budget-to-actual and actual-to-actual results of Segment Adjusted EBITDAR in assessing performance of each segment and…
- CZR (CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …several dining options, ranging from upscale dining experiences to moderately-priced restaurants, some of which offer pickup or in-room delivery options. Hotel Operations Hotel operations generate revenues from hotel stays at our properties in our approximately 45,600 guest rooms and suites and represented…
- FY2025 10-K: …our Consolidated Financial Statements included in Item 8. Item 1. Business Overview We are a geographically diversified gaming and hospitality company that was founded in 1973 by the Carano family with the opening of the Eldorado Hotel Casino in Reno, Nevada. Beginning in 2005, we grew through a series of…
- MLCO (MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED)
- FY2025 20-F: 1 million in 2025, an increase of 14.7% compared to 2024 and above the 39.4 million visitors in 2019. Visitors from mainland China represented 72.4% of all visitors to Macau in 2025, compared to 70.1% in 2024, and visitors from Hong Kong and Taiwan represented 18.2% and 2.5%, of all visitors to Macau in 2025,…
- FY2025 20-F: …implemented a FCPA Compliance Program in 2007, which was revised and expanded in scope in December 2013 as the Ethical Business Practices Program. This covers the activities of the shareholders, directors, officers, employees and counterparties of our Company. Gaming Licenses The Concession Regime in Macau The Macau…
- RRR (RED ROCK RESORTS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …12/31 12/31/2025 0001653653 false 12/31 2025 FY P7Y P7Y P7Y0M0D P2Y P5Y0M P1Y iso4217:USD xbrli:shares iso4217:USD xbrli:shares rrr:Casino_Property xbrli:pure utr:acre rrr:gaming_device rrr:Table_Games utr:Rate rrr:Class rrr:vote rrr:decimal rrr:Segment 0001653653 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001653653 2025-06-30…
- FY2025 10-K: …Factors- Business, Economic, Market and Operating Risks-Failure to maintain the integrity of our internal or customer data, including defending our information systems against hacking, security breaches, computer malware, cyberattacks and similar technology exploitation risks, could have an adverse effect on our…
- BYD (BOYD GAMING CORP)
- FY2025 10-K: …Wilton Rancheria for the management of Sky River Casino in northern California and the operating results of Lattner Entertainment Group Illinois, LLC ("Lattner"), our Illinois distributed gaming operator. The table below lists the Reportable Segment classification of each of our gaming entertainment properties that…
- FY2025 10-K: …California and the operating results of Lattner, our Illinois distributed gaming operator. 22 Table of Contents The table below lists the Reportable Segment classification of each of our gaming entertainment properties that were aggregated based on their similar economic characteristics, types of customers, types of…
- PENN (PENN Entertainment, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …to progress throughout 2026. See "Triple Net Leases" below for further discussion. The table below summarizes certain features of the properties owned, operated, or managed by us as of December 31, 2025, by reportable segment (all area and capacity metrics are approximate): Location Real Estate Assets Lease or…
- FY2025 10-K: Indiana Pinnacle Master Lease Hollywood Casino Bangor Bangor, Maine AR PENN Master Lease Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races Charles Town, West Virginia AR PENN Master Lease Hollywood Casino Columbus Columbus, Ohio 2023 Master Lease Hollywood Casino at Greektown Detroit, Michigan VICI Master Lease Hollywood Casino…
- MAR (MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/)
- FY2025 10-K: …criteria for separate disclosure as a reportable business segment, and as such, we include its results in "Unallocated corporate and other." See Note 14 for more information. Brand Portfolio We believe that our brand portfolio offers the most compelling range of brands, lodging properties, and other offerings in…
- FY2025 10-K: PAR increased 0.4 percent, reflecting softness in macro-economic conditions during the year. Starwood Data Security Incident On November 30, 2018, we announced a data security incident involving unauthorized access to the Starwood reservations database (the "Data Security Incident"). We are currently unable to…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.