WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC. (WWW): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $19.48, WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC. (WWW) is priced for +5.1% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/WWW

Headline

FieldValue
TickerWWW
CompanyWOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC.
Current price$19.49/sh
CompositionActive Group - Wholesale 52% / Active Group - Direct-to-consumer 23% / Work Group - Wholesale 20% / Work Group - Direct-to-consumer 2% / Other - Wholesale 2% / Other - Direct-to-consumer 0%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin (value-band context)5.1%
Operating margin today8.5%
Margin compression (value-band)-3.4pp
Implied growth5.1%
Multiple paid14x operating income

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.9pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.30σ
cohort percentile (of 214 peers)32
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset1.42x5expensive
Earnings1.97x4expensive
Relative0.44x2justifies
Growth0.79x3justifies

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=14)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$42.100.46xyesFCF base $0.1B, growth 8% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.5%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$24.790.79xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 12.0x / 14.0x / 16.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative ValuationRelative——noP/E 20x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 16.6x / 20.0x / 23.4x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$13.751.42xyesBV/sh $5.09, ROE (TTM) 25.0%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$22.720.86xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$15.501.26xyesRev $1.9B, growth 8% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.7x / 0.8x / 1.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$43.050.45xyesEPS $1.23, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.44 (Undervalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$0.011948.50xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.06B × (1−19%) / WACC 7.5% → EPV (no growth) (excluded from median)
Residual IncomeAsset$20.320.96xyesBV $5.09 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 25.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$11.871.64xyes√(22.5 × EPS $1.23 × BVPS $5.09) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——noEBITDA $0.17B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$7.862.48xyesFCF $132.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$4.624.22xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.11B (FCF $0.13B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$39.690.49xyesEPS $1.23 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$1.5512.57xyesBV $5.09 × (ROIC 2.3% / WACC 7.5%)
P/Sales SectorRelative——noRevenue $1.92B × sector P/S 1.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$46.130.42xyesEPS $1.23 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x
Earnings YieldEarnings$13.301.47xyesEPS $1.23 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

UnitRoleValuation basisRevenueReported profitValue evidenceStatus
Active Groupoperatingenterprise$1.4b—withheldunresolved no unit value
Work Groupoperatingenterprise$422.2m—withheldunresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$519.3m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)3.92x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)3.18x
Share count CAGR (buyback)-0.1%
Burning cashno

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Read Wolverine as a turnaround that is starting to work, not a steady compounder. After years of restructuring and debt reduction, Q1 2026 revenue grew 11% to $457.6 million and the company raised full-year EPS guidance to $1.43 to $1.58.

The growth is brand-led. Saucony rose about 20% and Merrell about 13% in the quarter, with Merrell gaining market share in 12 of the last 13 quarters in its category. At $17.61 the price implies only about 6.5% operating growth a year, broadly in line with what the business is delivering.

The overhang is the balance sheet and the macro. Net debt is still meaningful after a 33% year-over-year reduction, and management guides for about $50 million of tariff headwinds in fiscal 2026.

Bull Case

The right frame is a mid-turnaround consumer-brand company, because that determines how to read the numbers. Wolverine spent the last few years shedding non-core brands, cutting costs, and paying down debt, and the trailing financials still carry the scars of that reset: a small book value of about $5 a share and an operating margin around 8.5% that is recovering rather than mature. What matters is the inflection, and it is showing up. Q1 2026 revenue grew 11% to $457.6 million, ahead of consensus, and adjusted EPS of $0.25 beat the $0.22 estimate. The company designs, sources, markets, and distributes branded footwear, apparel, and accessories across its reportable segments (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-26-012614), and the focused portfolio is now growing again.

The brand momentum is the engine. Saucony grew about 20% to $155.9 million and Merrell grew about 13% to $169.7 million in the quarter, the two running and outdoor brands that anchor the Active Group. Merrell has gained market share in 12 of the last 13 quarters in its category, and the US hike category that had been under pressure returned to growth. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $1.43 to $1.58, expects gross margin to reach about 46.4%, and projects roughly 5% revenue growth at the midpoint, with Saucony guided to low-to-mid-teens growth. A footwear company posting double-digit growth in its two lead brands while expanding gross margin is executing a real turnaround, not just cost-cutting.

The deleveraging changes the risk profile. Management has reduced net debt about 33% year over year to roughly $496 million, lowering leverage materially, which frees cash flow that was previously servicing debt and reduces the financial risk that had weighed on the stock. The valuation reflects an undemanding bar: the relative-multiple model lands near $22 and the DCF exit-multiple model near $23, both above the $17.61 price (June 28, 2026), and the reverse-DCF base case sits near $18. Against apparel and footwear peers like Under Armour and PVH, a re-rating company with accelerating lead brands and a shrinking debt load has a clear path higher if the momentum holds, and analyst targets cluster in the mid-$20s with some up to $29.

Bear Case

The external variable with the most leverage on the thesis is trade policy, and footwear sits right in its path. Wolverine sources the bulk of its product from Asia, and management guides for roughly $50 million of tariff headwinds in fiscal 2026, with current Section 122 tariffs of 10% on Asian imports replacing higher prior rates and expected to persist into late July. A $50 million hit is meaningful against a business that earns roughly $160 million of operating income, so the tariff drag directly threatens the gross-margin expansion the bull case depends on. The company is shifting sourcing away from China to mitigate it, but that takes time and capital, and any escalation in trade tensions would deepen the headwind.

The supply chain itself is a structural vulnerability. The filing notes Wolverine does not have long-term contracts with its third-party manufacturers and that its future results depend partly on maintaining those relationships (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-26-012614). A footwear company that owns no factories is exposed to capacity, pricing, and reliability decisions made by suppliers it does not control, and the filing also flags that inventory shortages from inaccurate demand forecasting can impede its ability to meet demand (FY2025 10-K, accession 0001628280-26-012614). In a fashion-sensitive category, getting the styles and quantities wrong is a recurring risk.

The balance sheet still constrains the turnaround. Even after the 33% reduction, net debt remains meaningful at roughly $500 million against an operating-income base around $160 million, so the company is leveraged in a way that amplifies any earnings stumble. Footwear demand is discretionary and tied to consumer confidence; a pullback would slow the Saucony and Merrell growth that is carrying the company while Sweaty Betty already declines and the legacy Wolverine boot brand runs roughly flat. The price assumes about 6.5% operating growth a year, which is within reach today, but the earnings-power models call the stock expensive because the normalized margin is thin. If tariffs bite, a brand cycle turns, or the consumer weakens, a leveraged turnaround priced for steady growth has limited cushion, and the reverse-DCF low end near $15 shows where it could land.

Valuation

The methods bracket the price closely, which fits a turnaround near its inflection. Against the $17.61 quote, the relative-multiple model at a 20x sector P/E lands near $22, the DCF exit-multiple model near $23, the two-stage excess-return model near $23, and the residual-income model near $20. The simple excess-return model lands near $14 and the Graham number near $12. The free-cash-flow yield lands near $8 because the normalized free cash flow is still depressed by the turnaround. The blended X-ray estimate sits near $23. So the relative-multiple and growth-DCF lenses justify or exceed the price, while the earnings-power lenses call it expensive on the thin normalized margin.

Inverting the price gives a modest assumption. At about 15x company-wide operating income, the price implies operating growth of roughly 6.5% a year for five years, discounted at a 9% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth, where each percentage point of cost moves the implied growth about six points. That implied pace is within what the company has recently delivered, which is why the overall characterization is within range rather than stretched.

One caveat: the operating income the inversion prices and the EDGAR figure diverge by about 17%, so the implied multiple shifts a little with the basis. The honest read is that the stock is priced for roughly the growth it is delivering, with the upside skewed to the turnaround continuing and the downside tied to tariffs and leverage. This is a recovery story trading near fair value on the base case, where the band is wide because the outcome depends on execution.

Catalysts

The May Q1 2026 report was the recent catalyst and it moved the stock: revenue up 11% to $457.6 million, adjusted EPS of $0.25 beating the $0.22 estimate, Saucony up about 20% and Merrell up about 13%, and a raise to full-year EPS guidance. The next earnings report is the key test of whether the brand momentum holds and whether the gross-margin path toward 46.4% survives the tariff drag, since the turnaround thesis rests on both.

Tariff policy is the catalyst that cuts both ways. The roughly $50 million fiscal-2026 headwind is the bear case, but any reduction in Asian-import tariff rates, which management said would affect the second half, would be a direct tailwind, and the ongoing sourcing shift away from China is a structural mitigant. Brand-level momentum is the steady catalyst: continued double-digit growth at Saucony and Merrell, and the US hike category sustaining its return to growth, would extend the re-rating. Continued debt reduction from the current roughly $500 million also de-risks the equity. Analyst sentiment has improved, with targets raised into the mid-$20s and as high as $29. The chief risks to the timeline are a tariff escalation, a consumer pullback in discretionary footwear, a brand-cycle stumble, and the leverage that magnifies any earnings miss.

Sources: Sporting Goods Intelligence: Wolverine Q1 2026 results; WWD: Wolverine Q1 2026 earnings, stock jumps; StockTitan: WWW Q1 2026 revenue and EPS growth; Investing.com: Williams Trading raises WWW target on margin outlook; ainvest: Wolverine navigating tariff turbulence.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Active Group (reported)

Work Group (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive WWW report on boothcheck