Weatherford International plc (WFRD): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $87.53, Weatherford International plc (WFRD) is priced for +5.7% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.
Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/WFRD
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | WFRD |
| Company | Weatherford International plc |
| Current price | $87.53/sh |
| Composition | North America 20% / Latin America 18% / Europe/Sub-Sahara Africa/Russia 19% / Middle East/North Africa/Asia 43% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 7.8% |
| Operating margin today | 12.7% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -4.9pp |
| Implied growth | 5.7% |
| Multiple paid | 11x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.2pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~-1.4%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.16σ |
| cohort percentile (of 221 peers) | 7 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.60x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.29x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | — | 0 | — |
| Growth | 1.18x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=12)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $73.87 | 1.18x | yes | FCF base $0.5B, growth -7% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.5%, WACC 8.0%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $97.49 | 0.90x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 5.7x / 7.7x / 9.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 15.3x / 18.0x / 20.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $54.80 | 1.60x | yes | BV/sh $24.76, ROE (TTM) 20.5%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $80.76 | 1.08x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $46.18 | 1.90x | yes | Rev $4.8B, growth -7% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.1x / 1.3x / 1.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $71.18 | 1.23x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.71B × (1−40%) / WACC 8.0% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $77.60 | 1.13x | yes | BV $24.76 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 20.5% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $53.15 | 1.65x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $5.07 × BVPS $24.76) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $0.89B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $71.95 | 1.22x | yes | FCF $526.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $65.21 | 1.34x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.48B (FCF $0.53B − SBC $0.04B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $4.25 | 20.60x | yes | EPS $5.07 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $8.77 | 9.98x | yes | BV $24.76 × (ROIC 2.8% / WACC 8.0%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $4.78B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $54.81 | 1.60x | yes | EPS $5.07 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drilling and Evaluation (DRE) | operating | enterprise | $1.4b | $309.0m operating-income | $3.0b indicative EV subtotal | indicative enterprise value |
| Well Construction and Completions (WCC) | operating | enterprise | $1.9b | $515.0m operating-income | $5.0b indicative EV subtotal | indicative enterprise value |
| Production and Intervention (PRI) | operating | enterprise | $1.3b | $257.0m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $380.0m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 1.12x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 0.63x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.3% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Weatherford has transformed its balance sheet since its restructuring, carrying just $472 million of net debt against trailing operating income, a fraction of what an oilfield-services company of this size used to owe, which lets it convert cash to shareholders rather than to lenders.
- The biggest risk is the cycle plus geopolitics: revenue fell 3% year over year and 11% sequentially, and the Iran conflict cost the company a projected $30 million to $50 million of first-half profit by disrupting Middle East drilling.
- What to watch is the international recovery management is counting on: full-year 2026 revenue is guided to $4.5 to $4.95 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $945 million to $1.075 billion, weighted toward a stronger second half.
Bull Case
What management does with the cash is the clearest evidence of how far Weatherford has come, and it is the heart of the bull case. An oilfield-services company that emerged from a financial restructuring now runs with only $472 million of net debt, under one times trailing operating income, a remarkably light load for a business of its scale and cyclicality. That deleveraging changes the entire capital-allocation picture: instead of cash flowing to creditors, it flows to free cash flow and shareholder returns. Adjusted free cash flow reached $85 million in the first quarter, up 29% year over year, and management expects free-cash-flow conversion in the mid-40% range for the year. A capital-light balance sheet attached to a cyclical business is exactly the setup that survives the troughs and compounds through the peaks.
The profitability holding up through a weak quarter says something about discipline. First-quarter EPS of $1.49 beat the $1.02 expectation by a wide margin even as revenue slipped to $1.152 billion, and the company sustained an operating margin near 15% despite a sequential revenue decline. That cost control is what lets an oilfield-services firm protect cash flow when activity softens. The business is genuinely international, spread across North America, Latin America, Europe and Africa, and the Middle East and Asia, which gives it exposure to the international and offshore markets that tend to be longer-cycle and steadier than U.S. shale.
The forward setup is a recovery story management is positioning for. Full-year 2026 revenue is guided to $4.5 to $4.95 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $945 million to $1.075 billion, and leadership pointed to growth in international revenues and increased offshore deepwater activity into the second half of 2026 and 2027. Offshore deepwater is a particularly attractive end market for a services company because the projects are large, long-duration, and technically demanding, which favors established operators. The company is also redomesticating to Texas, a structural housekeeping step. The bull case is a deleveraged, cash-generative services company with international and offshore exposure, positioned for a second-half activity recovery.
Bear Case
The bear case is the oilfield-services cycle, and the first quarter is a reminder that this business does not control its own demand. Revenue fell 3% year over year and 11% sequentially, and operating income dropped 38% sequentially. Oilfield services sits at the end of a long chain that begins with the oil price and runs through producers' capital budgets; when oil weakens or producers cut spending, the services firms feel it amplified, because their revenue is the discretionary portion of someone else's budget. Weatherford's filings name the exposure directly: reduced spending by customers, or the acquisition of major customers, can decrease demand for its products and services. A 15% operating margin is decent for the current activity level, but it is a mid-cycle figure that compresses fast if international drilling slows.
Geopolitics adds a layer of risk most service companies cannot hedge. A significant portion of Weatherford's revenue comes from outside the U.S., and the first quarter showed what that concentration can cost: the Iran conflict disrupted Middle East drilling and workover activity, with management identifying a $30 million to $50 million profit exposure in the first half. The Middle East is one of the most important markets in the industry, and it is also one of the most politically volatile. A services company doing significant work in conflict-exposed regions carries an earnings risk that has nothing to do with how well it operates, and that risk forced management to revise guidance downward.
The second-half recovery the guidance assumes is precisely that, an assumption. Management is optimistic about international and offshore growth into late 2026 and 2027, but the back-half-weighted nature of the full-year guide means a weak first half has to be made up later, and if the recovery slips, the full-year EBITDA target becomes hard to reach. On valuation, the picture is mixed: the relative-valuation method reads the stock as cheap against peers, but the growth and asset methods land below the price, and the company's revenue is currently declining, not growing. The bull and the bear agree the balance sheet is strong and the cash flow is real. They disagree on whether a cyclical, geopolitically exposed services business deserves to be valued on the second-half recovery it is promising rather than the declining revenue it is currently reporting.
Valuation
Weatherford has to be valued through the oilfield-services cycle, and right now it sits in a soft patch made softer by geopolitics. The current operating margin near 15% is respectable, but revenue is declining, so the price embeds an assumption that the second-half recovery management describes materializes and lifts activity back toward the full-year guide of $4.5 to $4.95 billion in revenue.
The method families are mixed rather than uniformly cheap or rich, which is typical for a cyclical at an uncertain point. The relative-valuation method reads the stock as cheap, landing well above the price, because it measures Weatherford against where peer services companies trade. The earnings-power method lands near the price, confirming current profitability supports it. But the growth methods and several asset-based methods land below the price, reflecting the declining revenue and the uncertainty of the recovery. The split is the signal: on peer comparison and current earnings the stock looks reasonable to cheap, but the methods that require forward growth are skeptical because the near-term trajectory is down. This is a name where the value case rests on the cycle turning, not on the present numbers compounding.
The balance sheet is the standout strength and the reason the downside is contained. Net debt of just $472 million, under one times trailing operating income, is exceptionally light for an oilfield-services company, a legacy of the post-restructuring discipline, and adjusted free cash flow of $85 million in the quarter shows the cash generation holding even in a weak period. A cyclical business with a clean balance sheet can wait out a trough without distress, which is a meaningful protection. The decisive judgment for the value is not any single method's number; it is whether the international and offshore recovery arrives on the timeline management expects. If it does, the relative-valuation cheapness is real and the stock has room. If the geopolitical disruption persists or the recovery slips, the methods that anchor on declining revenue are the more honest read.
Catalysts
The first-quarter 2026 report was the catalyst, and it was an earnings beat against a softening top line. EPS of $1.49 crushed the $1.02 expectation, while revenue of $1.152 billion fell 3% year over year and 11% sequentially, and operating income dropped 38% sequentially. The defining negative was geopolitical: the Iran conflict disrupted Middle East drilling and workover activity, costing a projected $30 million to $50 million of first-half profit and prompting management to revise guidance downward. Adjusted free cash flow rose 29% to $85 million, and the company announced plans to redomesticate to Texas.
The forward catalysts center on the international recovery and the macro backdrop. Management guided full-year 2026 revenue to $4.5 to $4.95 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $945 million to $1.075 billion, weighted toward a stronger second half on growth in international revenues and increased offshore deepwater activity into 2026 and 2027. The variables to watch are the trajectory of oil prices and producer capital budgets, which drive services demand, the path of the Middle East conflict and whether the disruption extends beyond the first half, and the pace of the offshore deepwater ramp. The next earnings report is the event that shows whether the second-half recovery the guidance depends on is taking hold.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Drilling and Evaluation (DRE) / Well Construction and Completions (WCC) (reported)
- SLB (SLB LIMITED/NV)
- FY2025 10-K: …digital transformations. These services include transition support from on-prem to cloud-based digital solutions, data clean-up and migration, workflow automation - including deployment of workflow solutions built within SLB's global network of Innovation Factori workspaces - and training to further enable customers'…
- FY2025 10-K: …reduce cycle time and improve efficiency of workflows to allow customers to make better, faster decisions to improve their project economics and reservoir performance. • Digital Operations: Combines the strengths of SLB's oilfield services with advanced digital technologies to deliver more reliable, efficient, and…
- BKR (Baker Hughes Co)
- FY2025 10-K: 5, the Company expects to recognize revenue of approximately 59 %, 74 %, and 89 % of the total remaining performance obligations within 2 , 5 , and 15 years, respectively, and the remaining thereafter. Contract modifications could affect both the timing to complete as well as the amount to be received as the Company…
- FY2025 10-K: …and technology portfolio to focus on new energy areas, such as geothermal and CCUS; strengthening its digital architecture; and addressing key energy market themes. The OFSE segment is organized into four product lines. • Well Construction focuses on drilling and includes drilling services (directional drilling,…
- HAL (HALLIBURTON COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …in turn create demand for our products and services. We continue to monitor the recent developments in Venezuela and plan to grow our business once commercial and legal terms are resolved, including payment certainty. HAL 2025 FORM 10-K | 29 Table of Contents Item 7 | Results of Operations in 2025 Compared to 2024…
- FY2025 10-K: 88 475 Other 2,604 1,942 Total segment operating expenses $ 10,542 $ 8,085 Year Ended December 31, 2023 Millions of dollars Completion and Production Drilling and Evaluation Segment operating expenses: Cost of products, materials, and supplies $ 5,906 $ 3,771 Compensation 1,810 1,750 Depreciation, depletion, and…
- NOV (NOV INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …to assess performance and for resource allocation decisions in the annual budgeting process and in the quarterly performance review processes. Energy Products and Services The Company's Energy Products and Services segment primarily designs, manufactures, rents, and sells products and equipment used in drilling,…
- FY2025 10-K: …of oilfield drilling activity by oil and gas companies, drilling contractors, and oilfield service companies. Demand for the segment's composite solutions serving applications outside of oil and gas are driven by industrial activity, infrastructure spend, and population growth. Energy Equipment The Company's Energy…
- RES (RPC, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …effect on our operations; ● fluctuations in drilling rig count and well completions; ● our concentration of customers in the energy industry and periodic downturns; ● our business depends on capital spending by our customers, many of whom rely on outside financing to fund their operations; ● dependence on our key…
- FY2025 10-K: …flows in an existing formation, or to address well control issues. This operating segment consists primarily of pressure pumping, wireline, downhole tools, coiled tubing and cementing. Customers include major multi-national and independent oil and gas producers and selected nationally owned oil companies. The…
Production and Intervention (PRI) (reported)
- SLB (SLB LIMITED/NV)
- FY2025 10-K: …Operations and Platforms & Applications. Digital pretax operating margin expanded 557 basis points sequentially to 34%, reflecting improved profitability from strong Digital Exploration activity, robust growth in Digital Operations, and higher Platforms & Applications revenue. Reservoir Performance Reservoir…
- FY2025 10-K: …and the achievement of fully autonomous drilling operations. Digital Digital revenue of $2.4 billion increased 20% year on year driven by the accelerated adoption of digital technologies and higher sales of exploration data. Digital & Integration pretax operating margin of 25% increased 710 bps year on year primarily…
- HAL (HALLIBURTON COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …in turn create demand for our products and services. We continue to monitor the recent developments in Venezuela and plan to grow our business once commercial and legal terms are resolved, including payment certainty. HAL 2025 FORM 10-K | 29 Table of Contents Item 7 | Results of Operations in 2025 Compared to 2024…
- FY2025 10-K: …products and to implement commercially competitive services in a timely manner in response to changes in the market, customer requirements, competitive pressures, developments associated with climate change concerns, and technology trends, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, our business and…
- BKR (Baker Hughes Co)
- FY2025 10-K: …accepted accounting principles ("U.S. GAAP"), are unfilled customer orders for products and product services excluding any purchase order that provides the customer with the ability to cancel or terminate without incurring a substantive penalty, even if the likelihood of cancellation is remote based on historical…
- FY2025 10-K: & artificial intelligence ("AI") advancement: We are seeing growing demand for more intelligent operations and the adoption of AI-based solutions as part of our customers' digital transformations. Across industrial and energy markets, digital is both an enabler and a driver, unlocking new levels of efficiency and…
- NOV (NOV INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …drilling and remediation activity, which depends in turn upon oil and gas prices, the general outlook for economic growth worldwide, available financing for the Company's customers, political stability and governmental regulation in major oil and gas producing areas, and the potential obsolescence of various types of…
- FY2025 10-K: …of oilfield drilling activity by oil and gas companies, drilling contractors, and oilfield service companies. Demand for the segment's composite solutions serving applications outside of oil and gas are driven by industrial activity, infrastructure spend, and population growth. Energy Equipment The Company's Energy…
- FTI (TechnipFMC plc)
- FY2025 10-K: …and investment in the territories and countries where we or our customers operate, can materially adversely affect our business and results of operations. Policies affecting international trade, foreign investment, and energy production-such as tariffs, export controls, economic sanctions, and import restrictions-can…
- FY2025 10-K: …the transaction price and our measure of progress for the performance obligation to which it relates is recognized as an adjustment to revenue (either as an increase in or a reduction of revenue) on a cumulative catch-up basis. Contract costs to obtain a contract - Our incremental direct costs of obtaining a contract…
- XPRO (Expro Group Holdings N.V.)
- FY2025 10-K: …specific engineering costs associated with a project. We also procure products and services on behalf of our customers that are provided by third parties for which we are reimbursed with a mark-up or in connection with an integrated services contract. We also design, manufacture and sell equipment, which is typically…
- FY2025 10-K: …other countries, which in turn will likely affect demand for crude oil and therefore the demand for the products and services we provide and the commercial opportunities available to us; • the impact of current and future laws, rulings, governmental regulations, accounting standards and statements, and related…
- OII (OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC)
- FY2025 10-K: …demand for and prices of oil and natural gas, oil and natural gas production growth and the supply and demand of offshore drilling rigs; • actions by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ("OPEC"), and other oil exporting countries; • decisions about offshore developments to be made by oil and…
- FY2025 10-K: …and ◦ survey services, including hydrographic survey and positioning services and autonomous underwater vehicles for geoscience. • Manufactured Products -Our Manufactured Products segment provides the following: ◦ distribution and connection systems including production control umbilicals and field development…
- LBRT (Liberty Energy Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …domestic and global oil and natural gas inventories; • the supply of and demand for completions services and equipment in the United States and Canada; • federal, tribal, state and local laws, regulations and taxes, including the policies of governments regarding hydraulic fracturing, oil and natural gas exploration,…
- FY2025 10-K: …reduced to zero. Thereafter, any excess purchase price will be recorded as a reduction to retained earnings. All Class A Common Stock shares repurchased to date have been retired upon repurchase. 48 Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk Industry Risk The demand, pricing and terms for…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q1 2026 earnings call, April 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings release, April 2026 · FY2025 10-K, accession 0001603923-26-000014