Vontier Corporation (VNT): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $33.66, Vontier Corporation (VNT) is priced for -4.3% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/VNT

Headline

FieldValue
TickerVNT
CompanyVontier Corporation
Current price$33.66/sh
CompositionSales of products 90% / Sales of services 10%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin (value-band context)8.4%
Operating margin today18.4%
Margin compression (value-band)-10.0pp
Implied growth-4.3%
Multiple paid11x operating income

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 8.7% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.4pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history-0.73σ
cohort percentile (of 187 peers)8
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset1.08x5expensive
Earnings1.19x5expensive
Relative0.57x2justifies
Growth0.93x3justifies

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Relative, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$58.280.58xyesFCF base $0.4B, growth 4% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.7%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$36.060.93xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 8.5x / 10.5x / 12.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative ValuationRelative——noP/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 15.2x / 18.0x / 20.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$31.291.08xyesBV/sh $8.83, ROE (TTM) 32.8%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$61.910.54xyes5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$25.031.34xyesRev $3.1B, growth 4% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.3x / 1.6x / 1.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$49.500.68xyesEPS $2.83, growth 17% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.66 (Undervalued)
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$28.201.19xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.57B × (1−22%) / WACC 7.7% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset$48.340.70xyesBV $8.83 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 32.8% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham NumberAsset$23.711.42xyes√(22.5 × EPS $2.83 × BVPS $8.83) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative——noEBITDA $0.62B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$16.352.06xyesFCF $373.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$14.052.40xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.34B (FCF $0.37B − SBC $0.03B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings$91.310.37xyesEPS $2.83 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$4.068.29xyesBV $8.83 × (ROIC 3.5% / WACC 7.7%)
P/Sales SectorRelative——noRevenue $3.09B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative$74.250.45xyesEPS $2.83 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 17.5% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 26.2x
Earnings YieldEarnings$30.591.10xyesEPS $2.83 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

UnitRoleValuation basisRevenueReported profitValue evidenceStatus
Mobility Technologiesoperatingenterprise$984.5m$192.6m operating-incomewithheldunresolved no unit value
Repair Solutionsoperatingenterprise$633.4m$140.7m operating-incomewithheldunresolved no unit value
Environmental & Fueling Solutionsoperatingenterprise$1.4b$394.9m operating-incomewithheldunresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$1.7b
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)3.78x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)2.94x
Share count CAGR (buyback)-3.8%
Burning cashno

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

The moat is the installed base at the forecourt, and it is more durable than the EV headlines suggest. Vontier's Environmental & Fueling Solutions business, built on Gilbarco Veeder-Root, is, in the company's own 10-K language, a leading global provider of solutions to improve safety, environmental compliance and fueling efficiency. Fuel dispensers, underground tank monitoring and payment systems are mandated, regulated equipment that every fueling and convenience site must maintain, upgrade and keep compliant. That creates a long tail of replacement, software and service revenue tied to a vast global base of stations that does not disappear because some new-car sales go electric. The Environmental & Fueling segment actually grew 4.5% in the quarter, the opposite of a business in decline.

The economics underneath are high quality, and the cheap price does not reflect them. The operating margin runs about 18.4%, free-cash-flow conversion is guided near 95%, and management expects roughly 80 basis points of margin expansion this year, helped by the Vontier Business System, the operational toolkit it inherited from its Danaher heritage and applies to drive efficiency and disciplined acquisitions. Q1 sales of $750.6 million grew with strength in convenience retail, fueling, environmental and payment technologies, and the company reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $3.35 to $3.50 on $3.10 to $3.15 billion of sales. A business converting nearly all its profit to cash, expanding margins, trading at roughly nine times forward earnings, is priced for stagnation it is not showing.

Management is using the cheap price and the cash to its advantage. It repurchased $70 million of stock in the quarter, it is reshaping the portfolio by selling a majority stake in Teletrac Navman to Respida for $220 million while keeping a minority interest, and it is positioning for the transition rather than ignoring it, with an EV-charging software partnership between its Driivz unit and Dunamis Charge to support US charging-network expansion. That is a company that owns the legacy infrastructure today and is building optionality on the next one. The Street sees value, with a moderate-buy consensus and an average target around $47 to $49, well above the current price. The bull case is a high-cash-conversion forecourt franchise bought at a fearful multiple, with management compounding through buybacks while it builds the EV bridge.

Bear Case

The balance sheet is the structural pressure point, and it is what makes the EV question more than academic. Vontier carries net debt of about $1.67 billion, roughly 2.9 times trailing operating income, and interest expense is not separately broken out in the latest filings, so the true fixed-charge burden is partly obscured. Leverage at that level is comfortable while cash flow is steady, but it removes the slack that a business facing a long-term demand question would ideally want. Every dollar of free cash flow that goes to servicing or repaying debt is a dollar not available to buy back stock at a discount or to fund the EV pivot, and the more the legacy fueling cash flow comes under question, the more that leverage matters.

The demand question itself is the reason the multiple is depressed, and it is real. The core franchise sells equipment to liquid-fuel retailers, and the multi-decade transition toward electric vehicles threatens the terminal value of fuel-dispenser and tank-monitoring demand. A cheap price on a business with an uncertain terminal value is not automatically a bargain; it can be a value trap if the cash flows fade faster than the discount implies. The EV-charging initiatives through Driivz are sensible, but they are small and compete in a crowded, low-margin, still-unprofitable charging-software market against well-funded rivals. Replacing a high-margin, mandated-equipment franchise with a thin charging-software business would be a downgrade, not a substitution.

There is also execution noise that complicates the story. The agreed sale of most of Teletrac Navman comes with an expected loss of $60 million to $110 million in the second quarter, an admission that the prior diversification into fleet telematics did not pan out as hoped. Portfolio churn, buying and then selling businesses at a loss, is capital that did not compound. With the stock cheap, the bull case leans heavily on buybacks doing the heavy lifting, but a buyback only creates value if the underlying franchise holds.

Valuation

Vontier is priced as if the market expects its profits to erode. At $29.93 (June 28, 2026) the price reads as about 11 times company-wide operating income, a multiple so low that it functions as a bound rather than a solved point: the price sits below what even a 5%-a-year decline in operating profit would warrant. On almost every static frame the company looks worth meaningfully more than it trades for.

The reliability on the solve is reasonable, and the operating reality argues against the implied decline. The 18.4% operating margin, the roughly 95% free-cash-flow conversion, the guided 80 basis points of margin expansion, and reaffirmed adjusted EPS of $3.35 to $3.50, which puts the stock near nine times forward earnings, all describe a business that is steady to modestly growing, not contracting. The gap between an 11-times multiple and that operating picture is the EV-transition discount made visible.

The honest synthesis is that the valuation is a referendum on terminal value. If the forecourt franchise proves durable, with mandated upgrades, software and service sustaining the cash flows for years, the price is too cheap and the analyst targets in the high forties are reachable. If the energy transition compresses fuel-equipment demand faster than expected, the low multiple is the market correctly pricing a fading annuity, and the discount is justified. The inversion notes the near-term pace is within what the company has delivered, so the bear case rests not on current performance but on the long arc of fuel demand. The conclusion is a genuinely cheap, high-cash-conversion business whose upside depends on the legacy moat outlasting the EV fear that is suppressing its multiple.

Catalysts

The recurring catalyst is execution against the steady guide. Q1 2026 sales rose 1.3% to $750.6 million with adjusted EPS of $0.80, and management reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS of $3.35 to $3.50 on $3.10 to $3.15 billion of sales, with about 80 basis points of margin expansion and roughly 95% free-cash-flow conversion. The Environmental & Fueling segment grew 4.5%, so the key checkpoint each quarter is whether the core fueling and convenience-retail demand holds and margins expand as guided.

Portfolio and capital actions are active catalysts. Vontier agreed to sell a majority stake in its Teletrac Navman fleet telematics business to Respida Capital for $220 million, with an expected $60 million to $110 million loss recorded in the second quarter, and it repurchased $70 million of stock in the quarter. Watch the pace of buybacks at the current cheap multiple and any further portfolio simplification, since both are central to how management creates value while the stock is discounted.

The long-term swing factor is the energy transition. Sentiment tracks expectations for fuel demand, EV adoption and the digitalization of service stations and fleets. Vontier's EV-charging software partnership between Driivz and Dunamis Charge is the company's bridge to that shift, so progress there, and any sign of fuel-equipment demand softening or holding up, is the structural catalyst that will ultimately decide whether the depressed multiple re-rates. The analyst consensus is a moderate buy with an average target around $47 to $49.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Mobility Technologies (reported)

Repair Solutions (reported)

Environmental & Fueling Solutions (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

View the full interactive VNT report on boothcheck