TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC. (TTWO): what the price requires
At today's price, TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC. (TTWO) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~14.4 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TTWO
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | TTWO |
| Company | TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC. |
| Sector / Industry | Technology / Software |
| Current price | $244.11/sh |
| Composition | Mobile 50% / Console 39% / PC and other 11% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (mid-cycle) | 6.3% |
| Trailing margin (depressed year) | -3.9% |
| Must persist for | 14.4y |
| Multiple paid | 116x mid-cycle operating income |
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.6% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.5 years.
How unusual the bet is: elevated
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.02σ |
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 15% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power/growth-DCF land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 13.58x | 2 | expensive |
| Earnings | 12.63x | 1 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.85x | 2 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.63x | 4 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=9)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $54.59 | 4.47x | yes | FCF base $0.5B, growth 19% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.8%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $182.16 | 1.34x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 491.9x / 493.9x / 495.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $287.84 | 0.85x | yes | P/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 8.0x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $18.98 | 12.86x | yes | Book value floor: BV/sh $18.98, ROE negative |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $17.08 | 14.29x | yes | Book value with convergence: BV/sh $18.98, ROE converges to ke |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $182.83 | 1.34x | yes | Rev $6.7B, growth 19% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 5.5x / 6.8x / 8.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0 |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | $127.58 | 1.91x | yes | Margin ramp: -4% → 22% over 7yr, rev growth 19% (input: historical growth; tapered) |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $5.11 | 47.77x | yes | EBITDA $0.09B × sector EV/EBITDA 25.0x (excluded from median) |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $19.33 | 12.63x | yes | FCF $461.5M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $1.49 | 163.83x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.16B (FCF $0.46B − SBC $0.31B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $0.38 | 642.39x | yes | BV $18.98 × (ROIC 0.2% / WACC 8.8%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $287.84 | 0.85x | yes | Revenue $6.66B × sector P/S 8.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $540.7m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 1.70x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 1.34x |
| Interest coverage | 2.7x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 12.2% |
| Burning cash | no |
Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 6.3%); the trailing year was depressed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Take-Two is a $45 billion bet on one dated event: Grand Theft Auto VI ships November 19, 2026, management guides FY2027 net bookings to $8.0 to $8.2 billion versus $6.66 billion of FY2026 revenue, and the 10-K lists dependence "on the future success of our Grand Theft Auto products and other hit titles" first among its risk factors (accession 0001628280-25-026694).
- The company is not yet profitable on a GAAP basis, with a trailing net loss of roughly $300 million, and leverage is meaningful: operating income at the company's own mid-cycle level covers interest only about 2.8 times, a constraint the equity price is not dwelling on.
- Watch the launch window itself and the first quarterly print of fiscal 2027 in early August; the guided swing to FY2027 GAAP net income of $105 to $141 million is the number the whole repricing rests on.
Bull Case
The trajectory has already turned, before the catalyst even arrives. Across the last four quarters operating margin climbed from minus 5.5% to positive 0.65%, the quarterly net loss narrowed from $0.73 to $0.32 per share, and operating cash flow swung from minus $45 million to a run of $128 million, $305 million, and $235 million in the three most recent quarters. The latest quarter's operating income doubled year over year on 6.1% revenue growth. This is what the back half of a console investment cycle looks like: years of capitalized development spending on Grand Theft Auto VI and the rest of the pipeline rolling toward release while the current catalog, which the 10-K describes as products published "principally through Rockstar Games, 2K" and its mobile studios (accession 0001628280-25-026694), holds revenue at $6.66 billion, up 18% in fiscal 2026.
Then comes the event. GTA VI is dated November 19, 2026, and management guided FY2027 net bookings to $8.0 to $8.2 billion, operating cash flow above $1 billion, and FY2027 GAAP net income of $105 to $141 million, against a $298 million loss in fiscal 2026. The predecessor franchise is the highest-grossing entertainment property in the industry's history precisely because its economics do not end at launch: the filing describes full game products "delivered primarily as an online gaming experience" with revenue recognized over a service period, which is the accounting shadow of a live-service model that converts a one-time purchase into years of recurrent spending. A November launch means the initial sales wave lands in FY2027 and the online monetization compounds for years after.
The strategic depth is that Take-Two is not one game. Console was 37.3% of net revenue in fiscal 2025 per the 10-K, with mobile and PC carrying the rest, so the Zynga-built mobile base and the annual sports franchises provide a recurring floor underneath the hit-driven spikes. Free cash flow is already positive at $462 million trailing despite GAAP losses, gross margin has held in the mid-50s, and the street sees the setup: 28 of 29 covering analysts rate the stock a buy, with a mean target of $284 and a high of $368 tied to stronger GTA VI online spending. The bull case is simple to state: the most reliable blockbuster in entertainment is four months away, and the operating leverage on an $8 billion bookings year does the rest.
Bear Case
The variable with the most leverage on this thesis is not one Take-Two controls: the consumer's willingness to spend at record levels, on schedule, through whatever the macro backdrop looks like in November. The FY2027 guidance of $8.0 to $8.2 billion in net bookings assumes the largest single-title commercial event in the industry's history executes into a discretionary-spending environment the company cannot see from here, and the filing is candid about the fragilities around it: nearly 40% of net revenue is earned outside the U.S., where the company cites "tariffs and duties, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates" and international political risk (accession 0001628280-25-026694), platform holders and a handful of large customers sit between the product and the buyer, and content ratings and "Content policies could negatively affect sales" per the company's own risk list. A premium-priced launch is also a pricing experiment at unprecedented scale, run once, in public.
The balance sheet does not leave much room for the experiment to disappoint. Take-Two carries debt at 0.72 times equity, and operating income at the company's own mid-cycle level covers interest only about 2.8 times; on trailing GAAP numbers, operating income was negative, meaning the coverage exists only on normalized math. Shares outstanding are not shrinking, GAAP losses have run three consecutive fiscal years including a $4.5 billion loss in fiscal 2025, and free cash flow of $462 million trailing is 1% of the market cap. If the launch slips even one quarter, fiscal 2027 loses its anchor while the interest clock keeps running. Management locked the date publicly and guided against it, which reduces the odds of a delay but raises the cost of one.
And the price has already collected much of the prize. At roughly 116 times mid-cycle operating income, today's $243 requires growth held near the fastest pace the business can self-fund for about 14 years; among comparable fast-growers, only about 15% sustained that pace even ten. The history of this franchise cadence is the quiet problem: the predecessor carried a decade of results precisely because nothing of its size followed it, and the 10-K's own competitive section describes intense competition for consumer attention across an "increasing number of newly introduced entertainment" products competing for the same shelf and screen space. The bear case is not that GTA VI fails; it is that GTA VI succeeds, fiscal 2027 posts the guided record, and the stock has already paid itself for the following decade of encores that history says rarely arrive on schedule.
Valuation
Two profit numbers describe this company at once, and the difference between them is the whole valuation story. On EDGAR's trailing quarters, operating income is negative, about minus $104 million, because the current year absorbs the development and marketing spend ahead of the launch. On the framework's mid-cycle basis, which applies the company's own through-the-cycle margins to current revenue, operating income runs about $479 million. The price conversation only makes sense on the second basis, and even there, $243.18 (July 11, 2026) pays about 116 times mid-cycle operating income, which embeds growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly 14 years. The framework reads that assumption as elevated: the near-term pace is achievable, and fiscal 2027 guidance implies it, but only about 15% of comparable fast-growers sustained such a pace even ten years.
The methods disagree in an unusual pattern. Everything anchored to current profits reads the price as more than ten times what trailing earnings power supports, which mostly measures how depressed the trough year is rather than how expensive the stock is. The forward-growth methods, crediting 19% historical growth forward, still land at roughly 60% of the price. The one lens that defends $243 outright is the sector revenue multiple: at 6.8 times sales against a software-sector median of 8, the price actually sits below what peer multiples support. So the market is pricing Take-Two the way it prices a software franchise on normalized revenue economics, not the way it prices the current income statement. The filing-sourced mix underneath that revenue: console accounted for "37.3% of our total net revenue in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025" (accession 0001628280-25-026694), with mobile and PC carrying the balance, and 39.5% of net revenue earned outside the U.S. per the same filing.
What has to be true is therefore specific: revenue has to step from $6.66 billion toward the guided $8 billion range and hold a software-grade margin structure on the other side of the launch, because the balance sheet prices in no stumble. Leverage is meaningful, with mid-cycle operating income covering interest only about 2.8 times, debt at 0.72 times equity, and book value of $18.98 per share underneath a $243 stock. Free cash flow is already real, $462 million trailing with three of four quarters positive, and the guided swing to FY2027 GAAP net income of $105 to $141 million would be the first GAAP profit in four fiscal years. The bet the price makes is that November 19 is not an event but a step change, and that the new level persists long enough to grow into a multiple the trailing statements cannot yet justify.
Catalysts
The May 21 fiscal fourth-quarter report set the table. Q4 net bookings of $1.58 billion topped guidance, full fiscal 2026 net bookings grew 19%, and revenue rose 18% to $6.66 billion. The headline was the calendar: Grand Theft Auto VI is locked for November 19, 2026, and management guided FY2027 net bookings to $8.0 to $8.2 billion, operating cash flow above $1 billion, and FY2027 GAAP net income of $105 to $141 million, a reversal from the $298 million fiscal 2026 loss. CEO Strauss Zelnick framed the coming year as establishing record levels of operating performance, guidance concrete enough that a delay would now carry disclosure consequences, not just disappointment.
The forward calendar stacks toward the holiday. The first fiscal 2027 print in early August will show whether the catalog holds while marketing spend ramps; the launch itself lands November 19; and the December quarter will contain the initial sales wave, with online monetization building after. Analyst positioning has kept moving ahead of it: BofA raised its target to $368 from $320 on expectations of stronger GTA VI online spending, BMO moved to $285 from $280, and the consensus sits near $284 with 28 of 29 analysts at buy. The distance between the $284 mean and the $170 low estimate is itself the market's honest statement of launch risk: the same November date carries both the record year and the possibility of the one delay the guidance no longer has room for.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Take-Two Interactive (interactive entertainment, whole company) (reported)
- EA (ELECTRONIC ARTS INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- RBLX (Roblox Corporation)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- PLTK (PLAYTIKA HOLDING CORP.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
FY2026 Q4 earnings release, May 2026 · FY2026 Q4 earnings release and FY2027 guidance, May 2026 · analyst consensus and BofA research, July 2026 · FY2027 guidance, May 2026 · FY2026 Q4 earnings coverage, May 2026 · FY2026 Q4 earnings call, May 2026 · analyst research and consensus, July 2026