TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC (TTMI): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $131.26, TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC (TTMI) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~13.8 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TTMI

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Solve inputs: computed at a 11.1% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.3 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~9.8 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: high

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=12)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• TTM Technologies builds the printed circuit boards under the AI buildout and the U.S. defense electronics base, and the demand is real: revenue grew 30.4% year over year in the March 2026 quarter, with the FY2025 10-K attributing growth to aerospace and defense plus data center computing and networking end markets, "the latter two being driven by generative AI" (accession 0001193125-26-051976).
• The concentration is climbing with the boom: the same filing discloses that sales to the ten largest customers reached 55% of net sales in 2025, up from 42% in 2024, so the growth increasingly rides a handful of AI and defense buyers.
• Watch the June-quarter print against guidance of $930 to $970 million in net sales, the third-quarter close of the two announced European acquisitions, and whether the capex ramp that pushed trailing free cash flow negative starts converting into shipped volume.

Bull Case

The market is pricing TTM as a structural winner of two simultaneous buildouts, and the fundamentals have started arriving on schedule. At 80 times trailing earnings, the price assumes the growth is durable rather than cyclical; the last four quarters answer with revenue climbing from $731 million to $846 million, the latest up 30.4% year over year, operating income up 44.1%, and management guiding 2026 revenue toward $4 billion, roughly 38% growth, with operating margin targets raised to 13% to 15%. The company's own filing names the engine: growth in aerospace and defense, data center computing, and networking, "the latter two being driven by generative AI" (accession 0001193125-26-051976). Management puts about 80% of net sales in AI and defense end markets. Roughly nobody builds an AI data center or a radar system without circuit boards, and TTM is one of the few American manufacturers at scale.

The segment detail supports the story. The 10-K reports Commercial segment sales "increased $310.0 million, or 24.3%, to $1,585.7 million" for fiscal 2025 (same accession), and the defense side carries multi-year program visibility rather than consumer-electronics order churn. The company is spending to meet the demand it can see: a new 215,000 square foot Ultra-HDI facility opened in Syracuse in June 2026, a $130 million investment with $30 million in Department of War funding, aimed at radar, missile defense, and space programs, plus two all-cash European acquisitions announced in June to establish a first manufacturing footprint in Europe for medical, aerospace and defense, and industrial customers. This is capacity being built against named programs and named end markets, not speculative square footage.

Profitability is moving the right way underneath. Gross margin has stepped up each quarter over the trailing year, from 20.3% to 21.4%, operating income grew faster than revenue, and the balance sheet carries the expansion comfortably: debt to equity of 0.50, a current ratio of 1.88, and leverage the framework reads as moderate and well covered. Share count is falling rather than rising, which for a Growth-stage manufacturer in a capex cycle is quietly unusual. The bull case is that a decade of underinvestment in Western PCB capacity just met the two most durable demand streams in electronics, and TTM owns the trusted-supplier position in both.

Bear Case

Look at where the cash is going before admiring where the revenue is coming from. Over the trailing year TTM generated $315 million of operating cash flow and spent more than that on capital equipment, leaving free cash flow slightly negative, with the last two quarters at minus $6 million and minus $85 million as quarterly capex nearly doubled to $107 million. Management has committed roughly $450 million of capital investment across 2025 to 2027 and guided 2026 capex to $300 to $320 million, and in June layered on two all-cash European acquisitions. The 10-K acknowledges the treadmill directly: "To respond to competitive pressures and customer requirements, we may further expand both domestically and internationally. If we pursue such expansions, we may be required to make additional capital expenditures" (accession 0001193125-26-051976). Every dollar of today's earnings is being reinvested into capacity whose returns arrive only if the AI buildout keeps its current pace.

The price leaves no room for it not to. At roughly 62 times company-wide operating income, today's price requires growth held near the fastest pace the business can self-fund for about 16 years, and among comparable fast-growers only about 15% sustained that kind of pace even ten years. The margin version of the same demand is starker: the price is consistent with operating margins reaching about 30% by year twelve, against the 9.2% the company earns today, a jump this business has never demonstrated. PCB manufacturing is capital-intensive, competitive, and historically cyclical; the filing itself warns that demand disappointments can "result in significant losses and write-downs that would reduce our operating income".

Concentration and geography sharpen the risk. Sales to the ten largest customers reached 55% of net sales in 2025, up from 42% a year earlier (same accession), so the AI surge is narrowing the customer base even as it grows it; a single hyperscaler pausing orders or a single defense program slipping moves the whole print. The company also manufactures across a U.S.-China trade boundary that keeps hardening, and its risk factors flag "strained trade relationships between the United States and its trading partners, including trade tariffs which could create competitive pricing risk". The bear case is arithmetic more than operations: a well-run cyclical manufacturer earning 9% margins is priced as a compounder that must more than triple them and hold peak-cycle growth for a decade and a half, funded by cash flow that is currently negative.

Valuation

At $146.39 (July 11, 2026), the market is paying about 62 times company-wide operating income. Run backward, that price embeds operating growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly 16 years. The near-term pace is not the issue; the business just grew revenue 30.4% year over year, so the market is extrapolating something the company is visibly doing. The stretch is duration: among comparable fast-growers, only about 15% sustained that pace even ten years, and the framework reads the overall assumption as elevated, above what the fundamentals comfortably support.

The methods split in the shape that always accompanies a durability bet. Asset value sits furthest below, with the price near ten times what the balance sheet supports; earnings power reads the price at about five times what trailing profits justify; peer multiples land at roughly half the price, with the stock at 80 times earnings against a sector median of 22 and nearly 41 times EV/EBITDA against a 16 median. Only the forward-growth methods reach today's price, and they get there by crediting the 23% historical growth rate forward and holding today's elevated exit multiple flat, per their own construction. That pattern is not a contradiction; it is the market paying for compounding that static methods structurally cannot see. The concrete version of what has to be true: operating margin has to reach about 30% by year twelve, against 9.2% today. The filing-sourced inputs underneath are solid, which is worth saying: fiscal 2025 Commercial segment sales "increased $310.0 million, or 24.3%, to $1,585.7 million" (accession 0001193125-26-051976), and the growth engine is documented in the company's own MD&A as aerospace and defense plus generative-AI-driven data center and networking demand (same accession).

Solvency can carry the bet for now. Leverage is moderate and well covered, the current ratio is 1.88, and net income of $200 million on $3.1 billion of revenue is real GAAP profit. The strain shows one layer down: trailing free cash flow is slightly negative because capex is running ahead of operating cash flow by design, with only two of the last four quarters free-cash-flow positive. That is a deliberate investment cycle, not distress, but it means the price's 16-year growth assumption is being funded in advance. What the buyer at $146.39 owns is the scenario where the AI and defense buildouts persist long enough for tripled margins on much larger revenue; every other lens on the same company prices it between $15 and $70 of the current $146.

Catalysts

The first-quarter print in late April was a beat-and-raise. Net sales of $846 million against $649 million a year earlier, ahead of the roughly $787 million the street expected, with Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $0.75 versus a $0.67 consensus. Gross margin reached 21.4%, adjusted EBITDA hit $133 million at a 15.7% margin, and management framed about 80% of net sales as tied to AI and defense demand, with data center and networking climbing to 36% of the mix as automotive shrank. Guidance for the June quarter calls for net sales of $930 to $970 million and Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $0.82 to $0.88, and the full-year 2026 frame points to roughly $4 billion of revenue with operating margin targets raised to 13% to 15%.

The capacity story generated its own news flow in June. The Syracuse Ultra-HDI facility opened June 22, a $130 million, 215,000 square foot plant for advanced defense circuit boards with $30 million in Department of War funding and up to 400 new jobs planned. Five days earlier the company announced definitive agreements to acquire Swiss Technology Group of Zurich and ILFA of Hannover in separate all-cash deals expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, its first manufacturing presence in Europe. The near-term calendar is the June-quarter report against that raised guidance, the European closings, and the Syracuse ramp. Analyst sentiment has chased the results: Stifel raised its price target to $205 from $175 with a Buy rating, a target that extends the beat-and-raise cadence forward and sits well above what any trailing-earnings arithmetic supports at 80 times current profits.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

A&D (reported)

• BHE (BENCHMARK ELECTRONICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and capability to engage anywhere in the design process flow. We provide these services across all the industries we serve. We often partner with our customers to provide turnkey product realization from requirements through the launch to volume production in our factories. We have also developed differentiated…
• FY2025 10-K: …market opportunities and instead focus on low-to-medium-volume, high-complexity manufacturing programs, primarily within the A&D, semi-cap, medical, and industrial markets, which are often highly regulated and increasingly outsourced by OEMs. In the AC&C markets, we focus on customers with more complex requirements…
• SANM (Sanmina Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …solutions. These teams may include subject matter experts in design, specific technology components, services, products, and supply chain. These teams create a hub for interaction between the customer and our locations, providing local support to customers worldwide. End-to-End Solutions. We provide solutions…
• FY2025 10-K: …2025-03-27 2025-03-27 0000897723 sanm:DialightMember sanm:CollectibilityOfReceivableAndExcessAndObsoleteInventoryMember us-gaap:SubsequentEventMember 2025-10-09 2025-10-09 0000897723 sanm:EckertQuiTamSuitMember sanm:TrebleDamagesCivilPenaltiesAndInterestPayableMember 2024-09-29 2025-09-27 0000897723…
• CLS (CELESTICA INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …environmental legislation in the jurisdictions where products are manufactured and/or offered for use and sale by our customers. Government Regulation As a global company, our operations are subject to a variety of governmental and regulatory requirements related to, among other things, A&D regulations and…
• FY2025 10-K: …improved operating leverage. ATS segment income for Q4 2025 of $42.1 million increased by $5.1 million from Q4 2024 and ATS segment margin increased from 4.6% in Q4 2024 to 5.3% in Q4 2025, primarily driven by improved profitability in our A&D business, aided by the discontinuation of the margin dilutive program. Net…
• PLXS (PLEXUS CORP.)
• FY2025 10-K: …our AMER and EMEA regions, partially offset by insurance proceeds received in an arbitration decision regarding a contractual matter that took place in the our EMEA region in fiscal 2023. The increases in operating income were partially offset by an increase of $8.9 million in selling and administrative expenses…
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:SellingGeneralAndAdministrativeExpensesMember 2023-10-01 2024-09-28 0000785786 us-gaap:ForeignExchangeForwardMember us-gaap:DesignatedAsHedgingInstrumentMember us-gaap:CashFlowHedgingMember us-gaap:SellingGeneralAndAdministrativeExpensesMember 2022-10-02 2023-09-30 0000785786…
• MRCY (MERCURY SYSTEMS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: 3D packaging on the same devices to provide a swap-optimized solution for our customers. The Hudson, New Hampshire, West Caldwell, New Jersey and Oxnard, California facilities are specifically aimed at providing scalable manufacturing within our critical businesses. We leverage best practices in design, development,…
• FY2025 10-K: …product, where the customer evaluates alternative technologies and design approaches. We work with defense prime contractors as well as directly with the DoD. We help drive subsystem development and deployment in both classified and unclassified environments. The principal competitive factors in our market are…

Commercial (reported)

• SANM (Sanmina Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …2025-03-27 2025-03-27 0000897723 sanm:DialightMember sanm:CollectibilityOfReceivableAndExcessAndObsoleteInventoryMember us-gaap:SubsequentEventMember 2025-10-09 2025-10-09 0000897723 sanm:EckertQuiTamSuitMember sanm:TrebleDamagesCivilPenaltiesAndInterestPayableMember 2024-09-29 2025-09-27 0000897723…
• FY2025 10-K: …liabilities 36,022 44,513 Total lease liabilities $ 57,747 $ 66,783 Weighted average remaining lease term (in years) 11.94 13.93 Weighted average discount rate 4.2 % 4.2 % Lease expense and supplemental cash flow information related to operating leases are as follows: Year Ended September 27, 2025 September 28, 2024…
• CLS (CELESTICA INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …KK, Celestica Oregon LLC, Celestica Electronics (M.) Sdn. Bhd, Celestica Precision Machining Ltd., and Celestica International LP, as Sellers, Celestica Inc., as Servicer, and Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, New York Branch and Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank (Canada Branch), as…
• FY2025 10-K: …and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations 49 Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk 81 Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data 85 Item 9. Changes in and Disagreements With Accountants on Accounting and Financial Disclosure 85 Item 9A. Controls and…
• JBL (JABIL INC)
• FY2025 10-K: (TBRSU Executive - Non-Retirement Eligible). 10-Q 10.5 11/30/2024 10.4p† Form of Jabil Inc. Restricted Stock Unit Award Agreement (TBRSU Non-Employee Director). 10-Q 10.6 11/30/2024 10.5† Executive Deferred Compensation Plan. S-8 4.1 2/25/2011 10.6** Warrant to Purchase Common Stock, dated December 27, 2024, issued to…
• FY2025 10-K: 0000898293 jbl:CustomerAMember us-gaap:CustomerConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:AccountsReceivableMember 2023-09-01 2024-08-31 0000898293 jbl:CustomerBMember us-gaap:CustomerConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerMember 2023-09-01 2024-08-31 0000898293 jbl:CustomerBMember…
• FLEX (FLEX LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: 01-02 0000866374 us-gaap:SegmentContinuingOperationsMember 2022-03-31 0000866374 us-gaap:SegmentContinuingOperationsMember 2022-04-01 2023-03-31 0000866374 us-gaap:SegmentContinuingOperationsMember 2023-03-31 0000866374 us-gaap:SegmentContinuingOperationsMember 2023-04-01 2024-03-31 0000866374…
• FY2025 10-K: …2025-03-31 0000866374 flex:SaleOfReceivablesToThirdPartyBanksMember 2024-03-31 0000866374 flex:SaleOfReceivablesToThirdPartyBanksMember 2023-03-31 0000866374 flex:JetcoolTechnologiesIncMember 2025-03-31 0000866374 flex:JetcoolTechnologiesIncMember 2024-03-31 0000866374 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel1Member…
• PLXS (PLEXUS CORP.)
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:SellingGeneralAndAdministrativeExpensesMember 2023-10-01 2024-09-28 0000785786 us-gaap:ForeignExchangeForwardMember us-gaap:DesignatedAsHedgingInstrumentMember us-gaap:CashFlowHedgingMember us-gaap:SellingGeneralAndAdministrativeExpensesMember 2022-10-02 2023-09-30 0000785786…
• FY2025 10-K: 016, by and between Plexus Corp. and Todd P. Kelsey.* 8-K 10.2 8/19/2016 10.7 Form of Change of Control Agreement with executive officers.* 8-K 10.2 5/21/2008 10.8 Summary of Directors' Compensation (1/22).* 10-Q 10.2 2/4/2022 10.9 (a) Plexus Corp. Executive Deferred Compensation Plan.* 10-K 10.17 12/19/2000 10.9 (b)…
• BHE (BENCHMARK ELECTRONICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: The Company's customers operate in industries that are, to a varying extent, subject to rapid technological change, vigorous competition and short product life cycles. Developments adverse to the electronics industry, the Company's customers or their products could impact the Company's overall credit risk. The Company…
• FY2025 10-K: $ 206,791 Reconciliation of income before income taxes Other - corporate and eliminations (2) ( 97,380 ) Interest expense ( 26,922 ) Interest income 10,208 Other expense, net ( 8,802 ) Income before income taxes $ 83,895 62 (in thousands) Americas Asia Europe Total 2023 Sales from external customers $ 1,533,987 $…
• FN (FABRINET)
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:AccountsReceivableMember 2024-06-29 2025-06-27 0001408710 fn:CiscoSystemsIncMember us-gaap:CustomerConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:AccountsReceivableMember 2023-07-01 2024-06-28 0001408710 fn:NokiaCorporationMember us-gaap:CustomerConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:AccountsReceivableMember 2024-06-29 2025-06-27…
• FY2025 10-K: N 2025-06-27 0001408710 country:CN 2024-06-28 0001408710 country:CN 2023-06-30 0001408710 country:IL 2025-06-27 0001408710 country:IL 2024-06-28 0001408710 country:IL 2023-06-30 0001408710 fn:OthersGeographicAreaMember 2025-06-27 0001408710 fn:OthersGeographicAreaMember 2024-06-28 0001408710…

RF&S Components (reported)

• QRVO (Qorvo, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …dynamic has evolved as chipset suppliers have worked to develop more fully integrated solutions that include their own RF technologies and components. Chipset suppliers may be in a different business from ours or we may be their customer or direct competitor. Accordingly, we must balance our interest in obtaining new…
• FY2025 10-K: …the agreement exceeded our forecasted demand and we recorded total charges of $181.0 million to "Cost of goods sold" over the course of fiscal 2023 based on the actual and estimated purchase shortfalls. During fiscal 2024, the agreement was terminated effective December 31, 2023, and we are no longer obligated to…
• SWKS (SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …become more intuitive and integrated, we believe this could drive an inflection in upgrade cycles, leading to a potential tailwind to volumes and content over time. Finally, with the rapid transition towards electrification and advanced safety in vehicles, we are focused on high growth segments and content…
• FY2025 10-K: …and modules is highly complex and depends on numerous factors, including the ability: • to anticipate customer and market requirements and changes in technology and industry standards, • to obtain sufficient manufacturing capacity within an international supply chain to meet customer demand, • to define new products…
• MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …We match our opto-electronic components to our laser and photodetector products enabling our customers to buy more complete solutions for their opto-electronic systems. For optical communications applications, we utilize a proprietary combination of GaAs, InP and Silicon Germanium ("SiGe") technologies to obtain…
• FY2025 10-K: …Amplifier (TIAs), Modulator Drivers, Lasers and Photodetectors, to support single-mode, multi-mode and silicon photonics based transceivers and, in some cases, individual component designs are optimized for use together as a chipset. Telecom. Underlying growth in the Telecom market is driven by the ever-growing need…
• CRDO (CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD)
• FY2025 10-K: …solutions. We believe this IP portfolio provides us with a significant competitive advantage. 9 Comprehensive Family of Connectivity Solutions: Our extensive solutions portfolio includes HiWire AECs, Optical PAM4 DSPs, PCIe retimers, Line Card PHYs, SerDes Chiplets for Multi-Chip Module (MCM) package integration and…
• FY2025 10-K: …particularly the PRC. In the event that we cannot timely obtain sufficient quantities of materials or at reasonable prices, the quality of the material deteriorates or we are not able to pass on higher materials or energy costs to our customers, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.