Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $348.12, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~38.2 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-08-07.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TSLA
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | TSLA |
| Company | Tesla, Inc. |
| Sector / Industry | Consumer Cyclical |
| Current price | $348.12/sh |
| Composition | Automotive sales 69% / Automotive regulatory credits 2% / Energy generation and storage sales 13% / Services and other 13% / Automotive leasing 2% / Energy generation and storage leasing 1% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Must persist for | 38.2y |
| Multiple paid | 314x operating income |
Solve inputs: computed at a 13.3% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling.
How unusual the bet is: n/a
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.16σ |
Valuation X-Ray
Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 14.12x | 1 | expensive |
| Earnings | — | 0 | — |
| Relative | — | 0 | — |
| Growth | 2.10x | 3 | expensive |
Families that call it expensive: Asset, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=4)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $49.59 | 7.02x | yes | FCF base $14.1B, growth 12% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.1%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $193.80 | 1.80x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 138.2x / 140.2x / 142.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 44x (blended: static sector reference 20x + trailing (TTM) 317x), scenarios: 36.3x / 44.0x / 51.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 28.6x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $11.89 | 29.28x | yes | BV/sh $21.99, ROE (TTM) 5.0%, ke 9.3% (excluded from median) |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $8.14 | 42.77x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% (excluded from median) |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $165.68 | 2.10x | yes | Rev $103.6B, growth 12% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 9.9x / 12.0x / 14.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $10.63 | 32.75x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $8.08B × (1−15%) / WACC 9.1% → EPV (no growth) (excluded from median) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $7.72 | 45.09x | yes | BV $21.99 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 5.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 3.2%/yr (excluded from median) |
| Graham Number | Asset | $24.66 | 14.12x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $1.23 × BVPS $21.99) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $9.81B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $15.63 | 22.27x | yes | FCF $5762.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity (excluded from median) |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $5.23 | 66.56x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $1.96B (FCF $5.76B − SBC $3.80B) capitalized at Kₑ (excluded from median) |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $1.03 | 337.98x | yes | EPS $1.23 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $0.93 | 374.32x | yes | BV $21.99 × (ROIC 0.4% / WACC 9.1%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $103.62B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $13.29 | 26.19x | yes | EPS $1.23 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) (excluded from median) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Material operating units span distinct economics, so a single sector multiple or target margin is not representative. Consolidated cash-flow lenses may remain as secondary checks, while segment SOTP is primary.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive | operating | enterprise | $82.1b | — | $79.8b indicative EV subtotal | indicative enterprise value |
| Energy generation and storage | operating | enterprise | $12.8b | — | $65.8b indicative EV subtotal | indicative enterprise value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Secondary Optionality Overlay
Conditional scenarios only; this does not substitute for unresolved unit coverage.
Build Of Price (Sum Of The Parts)
The price decomposes into a demonstrated fundamentals base plus a segment premium. Each segment is an additive contributor to the premium at peer-cohort economics, not an independent defender of an allocated target.
| Component | Per share |
|---|---|
| Fundamentals base | $36.70 |
| Forward-optionality premium | $311.42 |
| = Current price | $348.12 |
Discount rate: 10.0% cost of equity.
Core Pieces (The Demonstrated Base, By Reportable Segment)
| Core piece | Revenue | Trend | Margin | Floor/sh | Own optionality/sh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive | $82.1b | — | 16% | $20.11 | — |
| Energy generation and storage | $12.8b | — | 30% | $16.59 | — |
Floor shares sum to the base. Each piece carries its own forward optionality on top of its demonstrated value; these draw on the same premium the named bets below also draw on, not a separate pool.
Named Segments (Standalone Central Values)
| Segment | Category | Central value/sh | Scenario range/sh | Strategic floor/sh | Peer cohort |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSD subscription + licensing | software-platform | $217.57 | $33.87 – $1399.67 | — | MSFT, ADBE, CRM, MBLY |
| Robo-taxi fleet | transport-rideshare | $191.35 | $29.78 – $1230.98 | — | UBER, LYFT, GOOGL |
| Optimus humanoid robot | industrial-oem | $77.96 | $12.13 – $501.51 | — | ABB, FANUY, ROK, ISRG |
The standalone values sum to $486.88, more than the $311.42 premium: the market discounts the segments' standalone sum by 36%. The over-sum is the signal that the segments were never the premium's sole burden; the core carries its own optionality besides.
At central scale the combined named-segment contribution spans $302.31 – $784.12 as timing varies (an honest range, not a point).
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $34.2b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -9.21x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -7.82x (net cash) |
| Interest coverage | 13.1x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 0.5% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- The fastest-growing large line in the June 2026 quarter was not vehicles: services and other revenue rose 50% to 4,581 million dollars and reached record profitability, while active supervised full-self-driving subscriptions climbed 56% to 1.48 million.
- Operating income fell to 398 million dollars in that quarter, down 57% on the year even as revenue rose 26%, because operating expenses grew 47% and capital spending more than doubled.
- Four production starts are guided for this year and all four are the reason the spending is happening: Cybercab at Gigafactory Texas, Semi in Nevada, Megafactory Texas, and Optimus at Fremont, where the Model S and X lines were decommissioned to make room.
Bull Case
The most useful fact in the June 2026 quarter is one that does not fit the way almost everyone models this company. Services and other revenue grew 50% year over year to 4,581 million dollars, faster than vehicles, faster than energy, and the company reported it as the quarter's record for profitability. Energy storage deployments reached 13.5 gigawatt-hours, up 41%. Deliveries did grow, by 25% to a record second quarter, but they grew more slowly than the two lines that nobody underwrites when they buy the shares. A car company whose non-car businesses compound faster than its cars is a different asset from the one in most spreadsheets.
Energy is the clearest version of the argument. It sells into a market where the good operators earn real money and the bad ones do not: FSLR converted 5.4 billion dollars of trailing revenue into an operating margin near 34% while growing 24%, and ENPH turned 1.4 billion dollars of revenue at a positive operating result. Tesla's storage business is competing on manufacturing scale in a category where the constraint is cells and factories rather than software, which is the kind of contest a company with four U.S. plants tends to win. The annual filing lists them plainly: We currently have manufacturing facilities in the U.S. in California, New York, Texas and Nevada.
Then there is the software line, which is unlike anything else in the vehicle industry because the hardware has already been sold. Active subscriptions to the supervised driving product reached 1.48 million, up 56% on the year, and the robotaxi service is now running in seven major metropolitan areas with three Florida cities added in July. The company has told shareholders where it thinks the next leg comes from, stating in the annual filing that The next phase of production growth will be initiated by advances in autonomy and the introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform, as well as our ability to efficiently manufacture our own cells. Note the ordering: autonomy first, then products, then cells.
Against the companies it actually competes with for a customer, the operating comparison is not close. F carried an operating margin around negative 4% on 189.9 billion dollars of trailing revenue, and GM converted 185.5 billion dollars into an operating margin near 1% with revenue slightly down on the year. Tesla is earning a positive operating result on revenue that grew, in an industry where the incumbents are not. Further down the size range the picture is starker still: RIVN ran an operating margin near negative 60% on 5.9 billion dollars of revenue, and LCID is further from breakeven than that.
The balance sheet is what makes the whole programme optional rather than forced. Cash and investments finished the June quarter at 43.5 billion dollars, and interest is covered roughly 13 times over. Free cash flow went negative in that quarter, but it went negative because capital expenditure jumped to 5,789 million dollars, not because the operating business stopped producing: cash from operations was 4,697 million dollars, up 85% year over year. A company with that much on hand gets to be wrong about a launch date without being wrong about its survival.
The bear is right that the spending is currently outrunning the earnings, and that is the honest cost of the position. The bull's answer is not that the spending is small. It is that the four things being built are the only reason anyone would pay this price, and they are being built now rather than promised.
Bear Case
The single external variable with the most leverage over this business is not demand, and it is not competition. It is policy. In fiscal 2025 the company booked 1,993 million dollars of automotive regulatory credits, a line the annual filing describes as sales of regulatory credits to other automotive manufacturers and which carries almost no cost of its own. Set that against operating income of 4,355 million dollars for the same year and roughly two of every five dollars of operating profit came from a market that exists only because governments require it. That line has already started to go: it fell 770 million dollars, or 28%, in fiscal 2025 against the prior year.
The exposure runs the other way too, through costs. The annual filing is explicit that changes in government and economic incentives or tariffs may also impact our sales, cost structure and the competitive landscape, and it names the mechanism: import tariffs by the US government and the provisions of the OBBBA could significantly increase battery cell expenses and impact costs for our consumers. Cells are the input the company itself calls the limiting factor on near-term production. A policy change can therefore raise the cost of the constraint and cut the revenue of the credit line in the same fiscal year, and neither move requires a single customer to change their mind.
Today's price does not appear to hold room for that. It sits at roughly 290 times company-wide operating income for the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, and every family of method that produced a usable read lands well below it. What that price requires, on a single calculation that should be read as a direction rather than a measurement, is operating growth held at its self-funding ceiling for something like 37 years. Historically only about 14% of comparable fast-growers held such a pace even for a decade, and following the path to its end would make the business roughly 230% of its own generously grown market. That last figure is not a forecast; it is a boundary condition, and the bet runs past it.
The near-term numbers are moving away from the requirement rather than toward it. Operating income in the June 2026 quarter was 398 million dollars, down 57% from the same quarter a year earlier, while revenue rose 26%. Growth is arriving; the profit attached to it is not. Part of that is deliberate spending on Optimus, Cybercab and Semi, and the annual filing is candid about how early that is: Growth of our business is also dependent upon our ability to develop and commercialize Bots, including Optimus, which is in a nascent industry that has yet to develop commercially. A nascent industry that has yet to develop commercially is not a description of a business. It is a description of a hope with a factory attached.
The compute bill behind the autonomy story is its own open item. The company warns that such innovation demands exponentially greater compute, memory, energy and thermal resources, which may prove insufficient in scale or affordability to meet our requirements, and it expects the car market to get harder, stating that The worldwide automotive market is highly competitive today and we expect it will become even more so in the future.
There is a useful way to see how much of today's cash generation is real. Capitalising the trailing free cash flow gets you one number; subtract the 3.8 billion dollars of stock-based compensation that the same period paid out in shares rather than currency and the identical calculation returns roughly a quarter as much. Both are honest. They just disagree about who is paying the engineers.
Valuation
Start with where the methods land, because that is where the disagreement is sharpest. Not one family of valuation approach reaches today's quote. The closest is the group that projects the business forward and prices it on a revenue multiple, and even that lands with the price sitting about 1.9 times above it. The book-value methods are far below, with the most conservative of them, a floor built from reported earnings and book value, sitting at roughly a thirteenth of the price. This is the pattern that says the quote is a bet beyond what any standard approach encodes rather than a premium a growth lens can defend.
Look at how the nearest method gets even that close and the point sharpens. It holds the revenue multiple exactly where it stands now, rolls it forward across its whole projection, and grows revenue about 12% a year off a 103.6 billion dollar base. That is not a conservative construction, and the price is still nearly double it. The cash-flow approach, which projects free cash flow from a 14.1 billion dollar base at 12% growth, reaches a figure under a sixth of the price. Between those two sits most of what a buyer is being asked to believe.
The trailing arithmetic underneath is thin by design. Operating income for the twelve months ended June 30, 2026 was 4.372 billion dollars on 103.6 billion dollars of revenue, an operating margin of about 4.2%, which puts the price near 290 times company-wide operating income. Read that as a direction, not a measurement: a small earnings base makes the calculation sensitive, and the underlying rarity read rests on three of the four references rather than all four, with no usable read on where peer multiples sit. What survives the hedging is that the price implies operating growth held at its self-funding ceiling for something on the order of 37 years, and that only about 14% of comparable fast-growers have held such a pace even for a decade.
Peers give the trailing figures some scale. F ran an operating margin around negative 4% on 189.9 billion dollars of revenue and GM near 1% on 185.5 billion dollars, so Tesla is the profitable one in its own cohort. It is also being valued at a multiple of trailing operating income that no member of that cohort would survive being asked to justify. Both of those statements are true at once, and the reconciliation is that the market is not pricing the car business. In the energy cohort, FSLR converted 5.4 billion dollars of revenue into an operating margin near 34%, which is roughly the shape the storage business would need to hold at scale for the segment story to carry weight.
Downside is bounded by the balance sheet rather than by earnings. Cash and investments stood at 43.5 billion dollars at the end of June 2026, and interest is covered about 13 times over, so nothing about the current spending programme threatens solvency. What it does threaten is the timing. Capital expenditure of 5,789 million dollars in a single quarter against operating cash flow of 4,697 million dollars means the reserve is now funding the build, and the reserve is the thing that has been buying management the freedom to be late.
Catalysts
Second-quarter results, published July 22, 2026, showed revenue of 28,236 million dollars, up 26% on the year, with deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, a record for a second quarter and 25% above the same period of 2025. GAAP operating income was 398 million dollars, down 57%, and GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was 1,114 million dollars. Operating expenses rose 47% year over year to 4,353 million dollars. The 10-Q followed on July 23, 2026.
The operational detail is where the year's decisions are visible. Energy storage deployments reached 13.5 gigawatt-hours, up 41% and the second-best quarter on record, and services and other revenue rose 50% to 4,581 million dollars. Active supervised full-self-driving subscriptions reached 1.48 million, up 56%. Robotaxi operations expanded to seven major metropolitan areas, with three Florida cities added in July, and Cybercab entered production at Gigafactory Texas.
Four things are scheduled to start this year and they are the near-term milestones worth tracking: Semi production at the new Nevada plant, Megafactory Texas, Optimus production at Fremont following the decommissioning of the Model S and X lines, and the continued ramp of Cybercab. Management also named battery pack capacity as the main limiting factor on near-term vehicle production volume, which makes cell output the constraint to watch behind all four. Capital expenditure ran 5,789 million dollars in the June quarter, up 142% year over year, and free cash flow was negative 1,092 million dollars as a result.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Automotive (reported)
- F (Ford Motor Co)
- FY2025 10-K: …for EVs leading to excess supply in that market segment. The decline in value of foreign currencies can also contribute significantly to competitive pressures in many of our markets. Competitive Position. The worldwide automotive industry consists of many producers, with no single dominant producer. Certain…
- FY2025 10-K: …inbound freight, and an intersegment markup. The intersegment markup amount is set to deliver a competitive return to the producing segment for its manufacturing and distribution service. Costs are reflected in the associated segment externally reporting the vehicle sale, as detailed in the table below: Income…
- GM (GENERAL MOTORS COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …cobalt, and certain rare earth metals, may lead to higher production costs for our EVs and could impede our ability to successfully deliver on our EV strategy. Further, increasing global demand for, and uncertain supply of, such materials could disrupt our or our suppliers' ability to obtain such materials in a…
- FY2025 10-K: …supply needs for production are met or are not disrupted. Our variable interests in these nonconsolidated VIEs include equity investments, accounts and loans receivable, committed financial support, and other off-balance sheet arrangements. The carrying amounts of assets were approximately $ 3.6 billion and $ 4.3…
- STLA (Stellantis NV)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- RIVN (Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE)
- FY2025 10-K: …approval for, market, and sell vehicles of sufficient quality and appeal to customers on schedule and on a large scale. Our vehicles may not meet customer expectations and may not be commercially viable. We have experienced delays in delivery and our production ramp has taken longer than originally expected due to…
- FY2025 10-K: …premiums for EVs, lack of charging infrastructure, negative perceptions regarding EV demand and adoption, and any event or incident that generates negative media coverage about us or the safety or quality of EVs. We have less financial resources than more established competitors to withstand changes in the market and…
- LCID (Lucid Group, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and, accordingly, our ability to generate meaningful product revenue will highly depend on sustained consumer demand for alternative fuel vehicles in general and EVs in particular. If the market for EVs does not develop as we expect or develops more slowly than we expect, or if there is a decrease in consumer demand…
- FY2025 10-K: …the Lucid customer experience throughout the entire journey. Expanding and Improving Manufacturing Capacity and Processes Achieving commercialization and growth for each generation of our EVs requires us to make significant capital expenditures to scale our production capacity and improve our supply chain processes…
Energy generation and storage (reported)
- ENPH (Enphase Energy Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …costs as a percentage of revenue. Reductions in customer spending in response to unfavorable or uncertain macroeconomic and market conditions, globally or in a particular region where we operate, as well as uncertainty in the regulatory landscape, would adversely affect our business, results of operations and…
- FY2025 10-K: …grid or from alternative energy sources, or a change in utility pricing structures, may harm our business, financial condition and results of operations. We believe that a system owner's decision to purchase a solar PV system is strongly influenced by the cost of electricity generated by solar PV installations…
- FSLR (First Solar Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …and financing these projects, typically supported by contracted revenues with creditworthy counterparties. Additionally, the unprecedented expansion of data centers, AI workloads, electrification of industrial processes, and broader economic growth has increased demand for new generation capacity and has expanded the…
- FY2025 10-K: …our focus to additional geographic markets. United States. Multiple markets within the United States, which accounted for 96% of our 2025 net sales, exemplify favorable characteristics for a solar market, including (i) sizeable and growing electricity needs, driven largely by data center demand and other demand…
- SEDG (SolarEdge Technologies Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …the price of natural gas, or alternative energy resources other than solar; • utility rate adjustment and customer class cost reallocation; • energy conservation technologies and public initiatives to reduce electricity consumption; • development of smart-grid technologies that lower the peak energy requirements of a…
- FY2025 10-K: …competitiveness, reliability and performance of PV systems compared to conventional and non-solar renewable energy sources and products; • competing new technologies at more competitive prices than those we offer for our products and services; • policy change and the introduction of tariffs affecting the manufacture…
- RUN (Sunrun Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: We also offer battery storage along with solar energy systems to our customers in select markets and sell our services to certain commercial developers through our multi-family and new homes offerings. After inventing the residential solar service model and recognizing its market potential, we have built the…
- FY2025 10-K: …have access to the traditional utility electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure. These energy service companies are able to offer customers electricity supply-only solutions that are competitive with our solar service offerings on both price and usage of solar energy technology while avoiding the…
- NEE (NextEra Energy Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …generation facilities and builds and owns regulated electric and gas transmission assets. NEER also provides gas and power solutions through its customer supply business. NEER's strategy focuses on providing cost-effective differentiated solutions to its customers, including emerging large-load opportunities, and on…
- FY2025 10-K: …expansion of solar energy where participants pay a fixed monthly subscription charge and receive credits on their related monthly customer bill) by constructing an additional 1,788 MW of solar generation from 2022 through 2025, such that the total capacity of SolarTogether ® is 3,278 MW. • An interim storm cost…
- FLNC (Fluence Energy Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …including, but not limited to, the cost-effectiveness of renewable energy technologies as compared with conventional and competitive technologies, the performance and reliability of renewable energy products as compared with conventional and non-renewable products, fluctuations in economic and market conditions that…
- FY2025 10-K: …storage assets and renewable assets. The digital applications sector is driven by the growth in installed energy storage solutions and renewable assets, and its addressable market is comprised of the total global installed fleet of energy storage solutions and renewable assets. We believe there is an opportunity to…
- NXT (Nextracker Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …new, lower-cost power generation plants; • relief of transmission constraints that enable distant, lower-cost generation to transmit energy less expensively or in greater quantities; • reductions in the price of natural gas or other fuels; • utility rate adjustment and customer class cost reallocation; • decreased…
- FY2025 10-K: …to research, development, promotion and product sales or respond more quickly to evolving industry standards and changes in market conditions than solar energy systems. Conventional and other renewable energy sources may be better suited than solar for certain locations or customer requirements and may also offer…
- BE (Bloom Energy Corp)
- FY2025 10-K: …utility-side, grid-scale applications in remote locations but not as a customer-side, distributed power alternative due to prohibitive space requirements and permitting issues. Wind turbines also can be co-located with storage, with similar benefits and challenges to solar-and-storage combinations, particularly…
- FY2025 10-K: …heat to achieve high efficiencies, we can provide highly efficient systems to customers based solely on their power needs and supplement with waste heat in more targeted applications. • Traditional backup equipment. As our Energy Server systems deliver reliable power, particularly in grid-independent configurations…
FSD subscription + licensing (speculative)
- MSFT (MICROSOFT CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …licensing programs, including Enterprise Agreements, include on-premises licenses combined with Software Assurance ("SA"). SA conveys rights to new software and upgrades released over the contract period and provides support, tools, and training to help customers deploy and use products more efficiently. On-premises…
- FY2025 10-K: …These volume licensing programs have varying programmatic requirements and benefits to best meet the needs of our customers. Software Assurance ("SA") conveys rights to new software and upgrades for perpetual licenses released over the contract period. It also provides support, tools, training, and other licensing…
- ADBE (ADOBE INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …to software subscriptions sold at adobe.com, the Company's online store. Processing these orders is reliant upon information technology (IT) systems to record revenue. We identified the evaluation of sufficiency of audit evidence over revenue related to software subscriptions sold at the Company's online store as a…
- FY2025 10-K: …names and copyrights. See the section titled "Risk Factors" contained in Part I , Item 1A of this report for additional information regarding risks related to our intellectual property. We license our desktop software, web offerings and mobile apps to users and customers under 'click through' or signed license…
- CRM (Salesforce, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …or when bundled with other offerings, or only charge a premium for advanced features and functionality, as well as companies that offer solutions that are sold without a direct sales organization; • vendors who offer software tailored to specific services, industries or market segments, as opposed to our full suite…
- FY2025 10-K: . Revenues from term software licenses are generally recognized 66 Table of Contents at the point in time when the software is made available to the customer. Revenue from software support and updates is recognized as the support and updates are provided, which is generally ratably over the contract term. The Company…
- MBLY (Mobileye Global Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …solutions for portions of the advanced ADAS software stack. In the future, our indirect competitors could become direct competitors. In the autonomous driving market, including AMaaS and consumer AV, we face competition from technology companies, internal development teams from the automakers themselves, sometimes in…
- FY2025 10-K: …agility, response times, and time-to-market; and (5) inherent cost-driven advantages. These significant advantages form the basis for our competitive strengths described below: ● Coupling of software and hardware delivers optimized performance and efficiency - We design our own purpose-built SoCs and develop a…
Robo-taxi fleet (speculative)
- UBER (UBER TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …suffer. If we fail to offer autonomous vehicle technologies on our platform at competitive scale or fail to offer such technologies or scale on our platform before our competitors, or if such technologies fail to perform as expected, are inferior to those offered by our competitors, or are perceived as less safe than…
- FY2025 10-K: …new products and offerings across a range of industries, many of our competitors remain focused on a limited number of products or on a narrow geographic scope, allowing them to develop specialized expertise and employ resources in a more targeted manner than we do. The competition we face in each of our offerings…
- LYFT (Lyft, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …losses from fraud and other misuse of our platform by drivers and riders. As an example of losses, we have previously and continue to experience reduced revenue from actual and alleged unauthorized rides fulfilled and miles traveled in connection with our Concierge offering. If we are unable to adequately anticipate…
- FY2025 10-K: (the "Lyft Platform") that powers rides and connections every day. Our Lyft mobile application ("Lyft App") connect riders with drivers for on-demand ride services and supports a variety of other multimodal solutions. Substantially all of our revenue is generated from our ridesharing marketplace that connects drivers…
- GOOGL (ALPHABET INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …devices. • Google Cloud includes infrastructure and platform services, applications, and other services for enterprise customers. Google Cloud generates revenues primarily from consumption-based fees and subscriptions received for Google Cloud Platform services, Google Workspace communication and collaboration tools,…
- FY2025 10-K: …Customers use Google Cloud in multiple ways such as: 5. Table of Contents Alphabet Inc. • AI-optimized Infrastructure: runs on our Cloud, at the edge, or in customers' data centers. It can be used to migrate and modernize information technology (IT) systems and to train and serve various types of AI models. Our AI…
Optimus humanoid robot (speculative)
- ABB (ABB Ltd)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- FANUY (Fanuc Corp)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ROK (Rockwell Automation, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …investment and the growing middle-class population. We believe that increased demand for consumer products in our addressed markets will lead to manufacturing investment and provide us with additional growth opportunities in the future. We have developed a powerful partner ecosystem that acts as an amplifier to our…
- FY2025 10-K: …support many production disciplines, including discrete, process, batch, safety, security, motion, robotics, and power control, in a single hardware and software environment, helping customers increase the speed of deployment and reduce their total cost of ownership. Our open architecture and strong partner ecosystem…
- ISRG (Intuitive Surgical, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …treatment options, patients may benefit from seeking out surgeons or physicians and hospitals that offer robotic-assisted medical procedures, which could potentially result in a local market share shift. Adoption of robotic-assisted procedures occurs by procedure and by market and is driven by the relative patient…
- FY2025 10-K: MIS products. We believe that the entrance or emergence of competition validates MIS and robotic-assisted surgery or robotic-assisted bronchoscopy. Moreover, as we add new robotically controlled products (e.g., da Vinci stapling and da Vinci energy products) that compete with product offerings traditionally within the…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q2 2026 shareholder update, July 22, 2026