TRIMAS CORPORATION (TRS): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $39.53, TRIMAS CORPORATION (TRS) is priced for -2.2% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TRS

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=6)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• TriMas sold its aerospace business in March 2026 for net proceeds of $1.24 billion, leaving a company with $913 million of net cash against a $1.55 billion market cap and two remaining segments, led by Packaging, which the 10-K reports at "net sales: $535.5 million; operating profit: $68.1 million".
• The headline numbers mislead in both directions: the trailing P/E near 2x is an artifact of the one-time sale gain, while the real question is whether a mid-single-digit-margin packaging business plus a cash pile deserves more than the market is paying.
• Watch capital deployment: roughly 4.5 million shares repurchased since the divestiture announcement, full-year guidance of 3% to 6% sales growth with over 300 basis points of operating margin improvement, and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.50 to $1.70.

Bull Case

The balance sheet is the story, and it is an unusual one: TriMas holds $913 million of net cash against a market capitalization of $1.55 billion. Nearly six dollars of every ten in the stock price is cash, the residue of the aerospace divestiture completed March 16 for approximately $1,456.9 million, netting $1,241.8 million after tax. Management is not sitting on it politely. Roughly 1.5 million shares were repurchased in the March quarter alone and about 4.5 million since the divestiture was announced, better than a tenth of the company, with trailing-year buybacks totaling $157.4 million. When a management team sells a division at a premium and immediately directs the proceeds at its own discounted shares, it is telling you where it thinks the value is.

The business left behind is better than the melted-down multiple suggests. The core is Packaging, which the 10-K reports at "net sales: $535.5 million; operating profit: $68.1 million", a 12.7% segment margin on products the filing describes as largely "custom-designed and engineered to meet customer-specific" requirements, the sticky end of dispensing and closure products where specifications, not price lists, hold customers. The March quarter showed the growth engine intact, with net sales up 10.4% year over year on 7.3% organic growth, and continuing-operations income up 51% to $9 million. Guidance points the same way: 3% to 6% sales growth, more than 300 basis points of operating margin expansion as stranded costs come out, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.50 to $1.70.

The valuation asks almost nothing. Every method family lands at or above the price, with asset-based approaches far above it, and unwinding the price shows it sits below what even a 5%-a-year operating-profit decline would warrant. Book value per share stands at $38.74 against a $41.40 stock. The filing adds the kicker: "Strategic acquisitions are a core component of TriMas' long-term growth strategy", and with this much cash and, in the filing's words, a strong free cash flow profile, the company can buy growth for the Packaging platform without leverage.

Bear Case

Face the structural fact first: the business that made TriMas interesting was sold in March. Aerospace, the fast-growing, high-margin fastener and engineered-components franchise, went out the door for $1.46 billion, and what remains is a packaging company with a small specialty-products attachment that together earned $9 million of continuing-operations income in the March quarter. The $21.40 of headline quarterly earnings per share was the accounting gain on selling the crown jewel, which makes the trailing P/E near 2x a mirage; on the guided adjusted earnings of $1.50 to $1.70, the stock trades at roughly 25 times forward adjusted earnings, a full industrial-compounder multiple for a business that has not yet demonstrated compounder economics.

The remaining operations carry real, disclosed frictions. Company-wide operating margin runs about 6.2% today, and first-quarter operating income actually fell 3.6% year over year even as sales grew. The 10-K is candid about the environment: "Many of the markets we serve are highly competitive, which could limit sales volumes and reduce our operating margins", and 2025 brought "higher input costs as a direct result of tariffs imposed on certain raw materials and components imported from China", only partially passed through to customers. Corporate costs still carry legacy weight, including $5.5 million of asbestos-related expense disclosed in the segment reconciliation, and the Specialty Products unit, at $110.2 million of sales, is subscale in cyclical industrial channels.

The biggest risk is what happens to the money. Nine hundred million of net cash earning money-market returns dilutes the very margin story the guidance promises, and the stated strategy, that "Strategic acquisitions are a core component" of long-term growth, is exactly how mid-cap industrials historically converted divestiture windfalls into goodwill impairments. The buyback is the disciplined path, but it is being executed at prices the earnings-anchored methods only barely support, and the common dividend, at $0.04 per share declared last fiscal year, offers no floor while shareholders wait. If redeployment disappoints, the stock becomes what remains after the mirage fades: a 6%-margin packaging business at a premium forward multiple, holding cash that belongs to a strategy not yet named.

Valuation

The price is best read as a bound rather than a bet. At $41.40 (July 10, 2026), TriMas trades at about 12x operating income on the framework's continuing-operations base, a level low enough that the price sits below what even a 5%-a-year operating-profit decline would warrant. The margin requirement is similarly undemanding: about 3.3% long-run against the roughly 6.2% the company earns today. Two operating-income bases need one bridge sentence: the framework's record basis runs near $75 million while the trailing EDGAR quarters show about $41 million, the gap being divestiture-period noise and stranded costs, and the guided margin recovery of more than 300 basis points is management's claim about which number describes the go-forward business.

Every method family supports the price, with asset-based approaches far above it, which is what happens when $913 million of net cash and a $38.74 book value sit under a $41.40 stock: the market is paying roughly the balance sheet and getting the operating business at close to nothing. Earnings-power methods land at 1.1x the price, peer multiples at 0.9x, and growth methods at 0.8x. The composition of the remaining company anchors those reads in disclosed numbers: the 10-K reports Packaging at "net sales: $535.5 million; operating profit: $68.1 million" alongside Specialty Products at $110.2 million of sales, so the segment carrying the value earns a 12.7% margin even while the consolidated figure digests transition costs.

Solvency is not a topic; the balance sheet is net cash by a wide margin, and the trailing year returned $163.9 million to shareholders, almost entirely through buybacks. The variable that decides the next leg is arithmetic on the guided range: adjusted earnings of $1.50 to $1.70 puts the forward multiple in the mid-20s on operations alone, so either the margin expansion lands and grows into that multiple, or the cash gets deployed into earnings that do. The current price pays for the cash and the packaging franchise as they are, which is why the downside reads as bounded and the upside as a management-execution question.

Catalysts

The transformation is weeks old, so the catalysts are mostly about deployment. The aerospace divestiture closed March 16, 2026, generating $1,241.8 million of net proceeds and a $1,040.0 million pre-tax gain, and leaving net cash of $913 million. Management repurchased nearly 1.5 million shares during the first quarter, about 4.5 million since the divestiture announcement, taking shares outstanding to 36.3 million at quarter end. Each subsequent quarter's buyback pace, and any announced acquisition for the Packaging platform, is the primary repricing event; the 10-K names strategic acquisitions as a core component of long-term growth, so a deal of size is a matter of when and what, not whether.

The operating calendar tests the guidance. Management guided 2026 to sales growth of 3% to 6%, operating margin improvement of more than 300 basis points as stranded costs come out, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.50 to $1.70. The first quarter started on pace, with net sales up more than 10% year over year to $168 million on 7.3% organic growth and continuing-operations income up 51% to $9 million. The summer print shows whether the margin bridge is tracking, with the tariff-driven input costs on Chinese raw materials that the 10-K flagged in 2025 as the main external swing factor on the cost line. A capped watch item: legacy corporate expenses, including asbestos-related costs, shrinking as a share of a now-smaller company is part of the 300-basis-point promise.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Packaging (reported)

• ATR (AptarGroup, Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …We are working with the suppliers of these alternative propellants and our customers to develop new solutions. 7/ATR 2025 Form 10-K Table of Contents Pharma regulatory agencies in the United States and EU have developed and introduced Combination Products specific guidelines for more complex drug delivery products,…
• FY2025 10-K: …no date has been set for new negotiations. In addition, the European Union ("EU") has adopted a circular economy package. The package maps out a series of actions planned over several years. Some actions have resulted in regulations aimed to reduce marine litter, increase plastic recycling rates, mandate minimum…
• SLGN (SILGAN HOLDINGS INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …stock or increase dividends to our stockholders or for other permitted purposes. In October 2024, we funded the purchase price for Weener Packaging with €868.0 million of term and revolving loan borrowings under our senior secured credit facility, or as amended our Credit Agreement, including a €700.0 million…
• FY2025 10-K: EBIT excluding corporate expense). Since 1987, we have improved our market position for our custom containers business, with net sales increasing at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.3 percent. We manufacture custom designed and stock plastic containers for food and beverage products, including peanut…
• AMCR (AMCOR PLC)
• FY2025 10-K: …The Company has identified potential performance obligations in its customer master supply agreements and determined that none of them are capable of being distinct as the customer can only benefit from the supplied packaging. Therefore, the Company has concluded that it has one performance obligation, which is to…
• FY2025 10-K: …progress toward these commitments and leading in the development of a responsible packaging value chain through our innovations and partnerships. Innovation is central to Amcor's approach to sustainability and we expect to spend approximately $180 million a year on research and development ("R&D") after the Merger,…
• CCK (CROWN HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …CUSTOMERS The Company's largest beverage can customers consist of many of the leading manufacturers and marketers of packaged consumer products in the world, including Anheuser-Busch InBev, Coca-Cola, Heineken, Keurig Dr Pepper, Molson Coors, Pepsi-Cola, and Refresco, among others. In addition to sales to Coca-Cola…
• FY2025 10-K: …related quantities pursuant to which periodic commitments are given. Such estimates assist the Company in managing production and controlling the use of working capital. The Company schedules its production to meet customer requirements. Because the production time for the Company's rigid packaging products is short,…
• GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Co)
• FY2025 10-K: …customer functions. The Company is organized to bring the full resources of its global and local innovation, design and manufacturing capabilities to all of its customers with the goal of delivering packaging solutions that are more circular, more functional and more convenient. The Company competes with a wide range…
• FY2025 10-K: …market positions in paperboard used to produce consumer packaging solutions, including recycled, unbleached and bleached paperboard. The Company's customers include many of the world's most widely recognized companies and brands with prominent market positions in beverage, food, foodservice and other consumer…
• OI (O-I GLASS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the customer to consider changing suppliers and/or using an alternative form of packaging. The adverse effects of consumer purchasing decisions may be more significant in periods of economic downturn and may lead to longer-term reductions in consumer spending on glass packaged products. In addition, the glass…
• FY2025 10-K: , (4) competitive pressures from other glass container producers and alternative forms of packaging or consolidation among competitors and customers, (5) changes in consumer preferences or customer inventory management practices, (6) the continuing consolidation of the Company's customer base, (7) risks related to the…

Specialty Products (reported)

• WOR (WORTHINGTON ENTERPRISES, INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …and distributors. These offerings are used by a diverse customer base, ranging from DIY consumers to professional contractors and trades people across a variety of applications. In fiscal 2025, Consumer Products generated approximately 43% of our consolidated net sales, compared to 40% and 39% in fiscal 2024 and…
• FY2025 10-K: ,778 , and 90,570 common shares for fiscal 2025, fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2023, respectively, have been excluded from the computation of diluted EPS because the effect of their inclusion would have been anti-dilutive. Note O - Segment Data Our operations are organized under two operating segments: Consumer Products and…
• GTLS (CHART INDUSTRIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Products segment supplies products used in specialty end-market applications including engineered liquefaction, storage and compression equipment for hydrogen and helium, LNG for over-the-highway vehicles, biofuels, carbon capture, food and beverage, aerospace, nuclear, marine, mining, lasers and water treatment end…
• FY2025 10-K: …the storage, distribution, vaporization, and application of industrial gases and certain hydrocarbons. Our Heat Transfer Systems segment supplies mission critical engineered equipment and systems used in the recovery, separation, liquefaction, and purification of hydrocarbons, LNG and industrial gases that span…
• MWA (MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to customer data or harm to our reputation." 23 Table of Contents Index to Financial Statements Item 2. PROPERTIES Our principal properties are listed below. Location Activity Square Footage Owned or leased Albertville, AL Manufacturing 444,000 Owned Ariel, Israel Manufacturing 218,300 Leased Ariel, Israel Research…
• FY2025 10-K: …engineered valves required for water infrastructure projects. Additionally, we expect these investments to drive operational efficiencies, expand capabilities for American-made products, advance our sustainability initiatives, and help accelerate product development. Accelerate sales growth through enhanced customer…
• GGG (GRACO INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …then supply to their customers. Industrial The Industrial division designs and manufactures liquid finishing and advanced fluid dispensing equipment; pumps to move chemicals, petroleum, food, and other fluids; and systems, components, and accessories for the automatic lubrication of bearings, gears, and generators.…
• FY2025 10-K: …Outside of the U.S., our operations located in Australia, Belgium, Spain, Japan, Italy, Korea, India, the P.R.C., the United Kingdom and Brazil distribute our Company's products and reinforce our commitment to those regions. Our manufacturing capacity is sufficient for current business demand levels. In 2024 and…
• NDSN (NORDSON CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …drug infusion, IV & drug delivery, patient care, surgical and biopharma. • Surgical Solutions - Microplegia myocardial protection devices and related consumables used in cardiac surgical procedures. Advanced Technology Solutions This segment integrates our proprietary product technologies into the progressive stages…
• FY2025 10-K: …is the objective to provide opportunities for employee self-fulfillment, growth, security, recognition and equitable compensation. This goal is met through the Human Resources department's facilitation of employee training, leadership training and the creation of on-the-job growth opportunities. The result is a…
• ITT (ITT INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …local firms, depending on the product line and region. CCT's ability to compete successfully depends upon numerous factors including quality, price, lead time, performance, brand recognition, customer service, innovation, application expertise and previous installation history. In addition, collaboration with…
• FY2025 10-K: …dedicated to supporting EPC firms as their needs are often distinct from those of distribution and end-user customers. The pump and valve markets we serve are highly competitive and fragmented. For most of our products, there are many regional competitors and a limited number of larger global peers. Primary customer…
• DCI (DONALDSON COMPANY, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and OEM dealer networks. The Industrial Solutions segment is organized based on product type and consists of Industrial Air Filtration, Industrial Gases, Industrial Hydraulics, Power Generation and Aerospace and Defense products. These products are further organized by the Industrial Filtration Solutions and…
• FY2025 10-K: …- complexity of manufacturing could cause inability to meet demand and result in the loss of customers. Our ability to fulfill customer orders is dependent on our manufacturing and distribution operations. Unexpected or extreme changes in demand could result in longer lead times because additional plant capacity…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.