TRIMBLE INC. (TRMB): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $61.01, TRIMBLE INC. (TRMB) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~6.4 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TRMB

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.6% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=9)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Trimble is mid-way through converting a positioning-hardware company into a vertical-software company, and the flywheel metric is annualized recurring revenue, a record $2.43 billion and up 13% organically in the March quarter; the 10-K defines it plainly: "ARR represents the estimated annualized value of recurring revenue".
• The risk is that the price already credits a long runway: no valuation family reaches it, and management spent $558.8 million on buybacks over the trailing year, 122% of net income, at 27x trailing GAAP earnings.
• Watch the second-quarter print against guidance of $938 to $963 million in revenue, and the reported exploration of a Transportation and Logistics unit sale, the next step in a multi-year portfolio pruning.

Bull Case

The market is pricing Trimble like a decent industrial; the fundamentals are printing like a software company hitting its stride. Today's price works out to about 25x operating income, which sounds demanding until you look at what the business just did: revenue up 11.8% year over year in the March quarter, operating income up 47.7%, GAAP earnings per share up 55.6%, and a record $2.43 billion of annualized recurring revenue growing 13% organically. Management raised full-year guidance on the strength, to $3.835 to $3.915 billion of revenue with organic ARR growth of 12% to 14%. Against its vertical-software comparables, the multiple actually sits in the lower half of the peer range, which is the gap the bull is buying.

The transformation has a paper trail rather than a slide deck. The company now describes itself in two segments, Product and Subscription and services, and the 10-K anchors the recurring base in a disclosed metric: "ARR represents the estimated annualized value of recurring revenue", calculated from actual subscription and maintenance contracts, not aspiration. Gross margin ran between 68.3% and 72.0% across the last four quarters, software-grade economics, and the portfolio has been actively pruned toward them: the precision-agriculture business went into the PTx Trimble joint venture where Trimble retains a 15% stake, the mobility business was sold in 2024, and reports indicate the Transportation and Logistics unit may be next. Each divestiture trades cyclical hardware exposure for concentration in the connected-software core.

The cash flow funds the story without strain. Trailing free cash flow of $480 million converts 105% of net income, debt sits at just 0.25x equity, and the company repurchased $558.8 million of stock over the trailing year while the share count fell. A company guiding its own operating margin toward the high twenties on a non-GAAP basis, compounding a recurring-revenue base in the teens, and shrinking its share count is doing the three things that re-rate a multiple, all at once.

Bear Case

Look first at where the cash is going. Management spent $558.8 million on buybacks over the trailing year, 122% of net income, at a price every family of valuation method sits below, while the company itself earns an 8.1% return on equity. Buying back more than you earn, at a premium to what earnings power supports, is a bet that the transformation multiple arrives before the arithmetic matters. The quality checklist has quiet flags in the same direction: profitability signals are perfect, but the leverage-and-liquidity block scores zero of three, with debt not declining, the current ratio slipping, and share issuance offsetting some of the repurchase. And this is a company that has now sold or ventured out its agriculture, mobility, and possibly transportation businesses in three years; serial divestiture can be focus, but it can also be a portfolio shrinking toward the only parts that still grow.

The price meanwhile requires an unusually long runway. At about 25x operating income, the market is paying for growth held near the company's maximum self-funded pace for roughly seven years, and historically only about 22% of comparable fast growers sustained that. No valuation family reaches the price: earnings-power methods sit at 3.7x below it, asset-based at 3.3x, and even peer multiples and forward-growth methods land about 40% short. Part of the gap is an earnings-definition question: the GAAP record shows $1.91 of trailing earnings per share, a 27.4x multiple, while the guidance investors quote is a non-GAAP figure nearly twice as high. The re-rating case leans on the flattering definition.

The end markets are the third leg of the risk. Trimble sells into construction, agriculture, and freight, all cyclical, with a hardware component that the filing notes is hard to forecast because "a portion of our hardware revenue occurs from orders received and" shipped within the same period. Trade policy cuts directly at the model, with the 10-K warning of "customers favoring domestic suppliers that could compete with or replace our products" and of "Geopolitical tensions and military conflicts, including the effects of significant trade barriers". And the software moat itself faces a new class of entrant: the same filing concedes that "Generative AI may also enable other parties to rapidly develop products and functionality that compete with our product offerings". Seven years is a long time to hold a ceiling-pace growth assumption against that list.

Valuation

The bet embedded in $52.83 (July 10, 2026) is about duration, not level. Unwinding the price says the market is paying roughly 25x operating income, which requires operating growth held near the self-funding ceiling for about seven years. The near-term pace is within what Trimble has recently delivered, and the margin ask is modest: the business needs about a 19.6% operating margin over the long run and earns about 17.3% today, with company guidance pointing meaningfully higher on an adjusted basis. What history questions is the longevity, since only about 22% of comparable fast growers sustained such a pace for seven years.

No method family reaches the price, but the distances tell a story. Peer multiples and forward-growth methods land closest, both about 40% below, while earnings-power methods sit at 3.7x below and asset-based at 3.3x. That shape says the market is paying for the recurring-revenue mix shift the trailing GAAP record does not yet fully show: the ARR base the price credits is a real disclosed figure, "calculated by taking our subscription and maintenance and support revenue for the current quarter" and annualizing contracted amounts, and it stands at $2.43 billion growing 13% organically. Two framings of the same company coexist here: against the scientific-instruments sector median of 18x earnings and 12x EV/EBITDA the stock looks rich at 27.4x and 19.9x, while against the vertical-software cohort it trades in the lower half of the range; the multiple the market settles on depends on which comparison set wins as subscription revenue keeps gaining share.

The balance sheet keeps the downside orderly. Debt runs at 0.25x equity, leverage is well covered, and free cash flow of $480 million converts more than all of net income, funding both the buyback and the transformation. The exposure is not solvency but definition: if the market ever reprices Trimble on its GAAP earnings power rather than its software trajectory, the 40% gap to the nearest method family is the measure of the fall, and the seven-year growth assumption is what holds that gap open.

Catalysts

The May print reset guidance upward and set the marks to test. Trimble reported March-quarter revenue of $940 million, up 11.8% year over year and 4% above consensus, with non-GAAP earnings of $0.79 per share beating estimates by 9.7%, and raised its full-year 2026 outlook to $3.835 to $3.915 billion of revenue with non-GAAP earnings of $3.47 to $3.64 per share, organic ARR growth of 12% to 14%, and a non-GAAP operating margin of 27.9% to 28.5%. Second-quarter guidance calls for revenue of $938 to $963 million and non-GAAP earnings of $0.78 to $0.82 per share, so the summer print is a straightforward pass-fail against those ranges, with the organic ARR growth rate the single number that carries the software re-rating case.

Portfolio action is the other live catalyst. Reports that Trimble may sell its Transportation and Logistics unit lifted the shares when they surfaced, and a completed transaction would continue the sequence that moved precision agriculture into the PTx Trimble joint venture, where Trimble holds 15% alongside AGCO's 85%, and sold the mobility business in 2024. Each step concentrates the company on its construction and geospatial software core and hands management more capital, which the trailing year says gets deployed into buybacks, $558.8 million of them. The tension to watch through year-end is external: trade policy and tariff shifts touch both the hardware bill of materials and, as the 10-K notes, customer preferences for domestic suppliers, so any escalation lands directly on the guided margin range.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

AECO (reported)

• ADSK (AUTODESK, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …quality, communicate plans, and collaborate with others. A summary of our revenue by geographic area and product family is found in Part II, Item 8, Note 2, "Revenue Recognition," in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Autodesk's product offerings include: Architecture, Engineering, Construction and…
• FY2025 10-K: …steps in a project to collaborators on a unified platform. Product Evolution We offer subscriptions for individual products and Industry Collections, enterprise business arrangements ("EBAs"), and cloud service offerings (collectively referred to as "subscription plans"). Subscription plans are designed to give our…
• PCOR (Procore Technologies, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …31, 2025, both the revenue and non-GAAP operating margin goals were achieved, and the goals were certified in February 2026. As a result, one-third of the 2025 CEO PSUs that became eligible to vest vested on February 20, 2026. The remaining 2025 CEO PSUs that became eligible to vest will vest in substantially equal…
• FY2025 10-K: AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ___________________________________________________________ FORM 10-K ___________________________________________________________ (Mark One) x ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31 ,…
• BSY (BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED)
• FY2025 10-K: …The Company is currently monitoring the status of the final rule pending the court's ultimate decision and evaluating the impact of the final rule on its consolidated financial statements disclosures. Recently Adopted Accounting Guidance In December 2023, the FASB issued ASU No. 2023‑09, Income Taxes (Topic 740):…
• FY2025 10-K: …its Chief Executive Officer, who reviews financial information presented on a consolidated basis. The Company's reported measures of profit or loss for segment reporting purposes are Net income and AOI less SBC. The CODM is regularly provided Net income and AOI less SBC to understand the Company's financial and…
• PTC (PTC Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …revenue grew across all geographic regions, primarily driven by Windchill. PLM ARR grew 10% (8% constant currency) from September 30, 2024 to September 30, 2025, primarily driven by Windchill and Codebeamer. CAD software revenue growth in FY'25 was driven by the higher total value and longer average duration of…
• FY2025 10-K: …College. Our CISO joined PTC as Cyber Information Security Officer in April 2022 and, before joining PTC, was the Vice President, Information Technology, North America and Europe for Alorica, where he led Alorica's transformation to a secure endpoint architecture for 90,000 global remote and hybrid employees. ITEM 2.…

Field Systems (reported)

• GRMN (GARMIN LTD)
• FY2025 10-K: …as GPS satellites and ground control segment facilities are being modernized, software updates can cause problems. We depend on public access to open technical specifications in advance of GPS updates. GPS is operated by the U.S. Government, which is currently committed to maintenance and improvement of GPS; however,…
• FY2025 10-K: …solar charging, depending on model. Garmin also offers Outdoor Maps+, a subscription-based premium plan that offers subscribers access to premium mapping content across the globe. • Golf Devices: Garmin golf devices are offered under the Approach® product line. The Approach series includes wearable devices, laser…
• CGNX (Cognex Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …package. Vision Systems and Sensors Vision systems combine smart cameras and software to perform a wide range of tasks, including part location, identification, measurement, assembly verification, and robotic guidance. Vision sensors can deliver an easy-to-use, low-cost, reliable solution for simple pass/fail…
• FY2025 10-K: /test processes created and controlled by Cognex. After the completion of initial testing, assembled products from our contract manufacturers are routed to our distribution centers where trained Cognex personnel load Cognex software onto the products, provide additional assembly and image alignment as needed, and…
• ZBRA (ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …former Enterprise Visibility & Mobility (EVM) and Asset Intelligence & Tracking (AIT) segments to two new segments: Connected Frontline ("CF") and Asset Visibility and Automation ("AVA"). Our CF and AVA segment results will also exclude share-based compensation expense from the measurement of segment operating…
• FY2025 10-K: …to end customers. We also expect to drive growth by capitalizing on technology transitions occurring in the industry, including transitions to WiFi 7, the 5th generation mobile network (5G) and Android™ operating system in mobile computing and transitions in data capture to technologies involving 2D and 3D imaging…

T&L (reported)

• DSGX (DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP INC)
• (no filing in the citation store)
• MANH (MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: Transportation Management and Labor Management), and inventory optimization, which are intensely competitive markets characterized by rapid technological change. We are a market leader in the supply chain management and omnichannel software solutions market as defined by industry analysts such as ARC Advisory Group…
• FY2025 10-K: …chain and omnichannel commerce expertise; our platform-based solution approach; our track record of continuous supply chain commerce innovation and investment; our strong and endorsing customer relationships; our significant success in deploying and supporting supply chain, inventory and omnichannel solutions for…
• SPSC (SPS COMMERCE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …As we strive to exceed our customer expectations by adopting and delivering AI/ML-enabled products and services, ineffective or inadequate deployment or governance may result in incidents that impair the acceptance of the AI/ML-enabled products and services, result in our products and services not working as intended…
• FY2025 10-K: …and utilizing AI and Machine Learning ("ML")-enabled products or services has become increasingly important within our competitive landscape. Such adoption and utilization may expose us to social, ethical, operational and regulatory risks that could result in reputational harm, liability and adverse financial…
• GLBE (Global-E Online Ltd.)
• FY2025 20-F: …7, 2020, pursuant to which the Company has undertaken to use DHL International exclusively for the provision of express shipping services to the Company's customers, subject to certain exclusions described therein, and DHL International has undertaken certain commitments relating to the prices under which its…
• FY2025 20-F: …U.S. dollar. Accordingly, foreign currency assets and liabilities are remeasured into U.S. dollars at the end-of-period exchange rates except for non-monetary assets and liabilities, which are measured at historical exchange rates. Revenue and expenses are remeasured each day at the exchange rate in effect on the day…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.