Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $84.51, Tutor Perini Corporation (TPC) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~7.3 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TPC

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 12.4% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~1.7 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~13.6%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Tutor Perini carries a $19.8 billion backlog, roughly three and a half years of revenue, into an infrastructure cycle, and its cash is arriving before its earnings: trailing free cash flow of $703M is a 17.2% yield on the market value, while trailing GAAP net income is just $0.08B.
• The risk is that the price already spends the backlog: at 52.2x trailing earnings, today's level embeds growth near the company's self-funding ceiling for about six years, a run only about 27% of comparable fast-growers have sustained, in a business whose 10-K concedes that "many factors change during a contract performance period that result in a change to contract profitability".
• Watch quarterly progress against affirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.90 to $5.30 and management's claim that 2027 will land significantly above that range.

Bull Case

The balance sheet tells you what stage of the story this is. Tutor Perini, a company whose name was long synonymous with cash locked up in construction disputes, now sits on a net cash position, and the cash is pouring in ahead of the income statement: $0.87B of trailing operating cash flow against $0.08B of trailing net income, with first-quarter 2026 operating cash flow of $146.9 million setting a first-quarter record, up 542% year over year. In contracting, cash leads earnings when disputes settle and new work is billed on healthier terms; the FY2025 10-K shows the last big legacy drag clearing, a $54.7 million unfavorable settlement on "a legacy dispute related to a tunneling project in Canada", even as the Civil segment's "Operating margin was 13.7% for 2025 compared to 6.5% in 2024" (accession 0000077543-26-000028).

The order book is the second act. Backlog stood at $19.8 billion at the end of the first quarter, about three and a half years of trailing revenue, and the filing notes roughly $6 billion of the year-end backlog converts to revenue within the coming year. This is mostly large civil work, mass transit, tunnels, bridges, where the bidder lists are short and the margins run structurally higher than commodity building. First-quarter revenue grew 11% to $1.4 billion with adjusted EPS up 58% to $1.03, and management affirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.90 to $5.30 while stating that 2027 should come in significantly above the top of that range on backlog visibility alone.

Against those forward numbers the stock is cheap in a way the trailing P/E disguises. At $75.91, the midpoint of this year's adjusted EPS guidance implies a mid-teens multiple on current-year earnings, the market pays 0.72x sales, and the 17.2% trailing free cash flow yield means the market value could be repurchased from cash generation in roughly six years at the current pace. The growth-anchored valuation methods sit far above today's price. For a company with no net debt, record cash flow, a record profitable backlog, and federal-and-state infrastructure funding behind its end markets, the bull case is that the earnings simply catch up to the cash that has already arrived.

Bear Case

The structural truth: the multiple is pricing earnings that have not happened yet. Trailing GAAP net income is $0.08B, a 1.4% net margin, and the stock costs 52.2x those earnings against an 18x sector median. Everything above that is a promise, a $19.8 billion backlog that must convert at bid margins, guidance of $4.90 to $5.30 in adjusted EPS, and a 2027 that management says will be better still. The framework's read of the price is blunt: it embeds operating growth held at the company's self-funding ceiling for about six years, an assumption it labels elevated, and historically only about 27% of comparable fast-growers sustained that pace even five to six years. Only the forward-growth methods reach today's price; the asset, earnings-power, and peer-multiple frames sit meaningfully below it.

The conversion risk is not hypothetical in this industry or at this company. The 10-K's own accounting discussion explains that contract estimates are "highly detailed and many factors change during a contract performance period that result in a change to contract profitability", and that the company "recognizes revenue for claims as variable consideration" (accession 0000077543-26-000028), meaning some recognized profit rests on the assumed outcome of future negotiations and disputes. The 2025 results themselves carried a $54.7 million unfavorable settlement from a legacy tunneling dispute. Mega-project contracting has a long institutional memory of margins that looked fine until year three of a fixed-price job; a 13.7% Civil segment operating margin in 2025, roughly double the prior year's 6.5%, is as much a warning about variance as a trophy.

The capital-structure picture is better than history but not pristine: the solvency read sits in the grey zone on the classic screen, the equity base is thin relative to a $5.7 billion revenue machine (equity multiplier above 4x), and working-capital swings of the size that produced this year's record inflows can reverse just as violently when big jobs roll off. Management itself cautioned that backlog may decline modestly in the near term as revenue outruns new awards. If awards pause, margins revert toward the trailing 4% operating level, or a major claim resolves badly, the stock's support at 52x trailing earnings is the first thing to go.

Valuation

The disagreement among the methods is as wide as it gets, and the pattern is informative. At $75.91 (July 11, 2026), only the forward-growth family reaches the price, and in fact the price sits at roughly 0.4x its central estimate, far below what growth-anchored cash-flow math would pay. Meanwhile the asset-based frame reads the price at 7.4x its mark, earnings power at 1.6x, and peer multiples at 1.3x. Translated: on what Tutor Perini has already booked to its income statement, the stock is expensive at 52.2x trailing earnings versus an 18x sector median; on what its cash flow and backlog say is coming, it is cheap. There is no middle reading, which is why the stock behaves like a referendum on backlog conversion.

What the price requires is duration rather than margin. The market pays about 15 times company-wide operating income, resolving to operating growth held near the self-funding ceiling for about six years, a pace only about 27% of comparable fast-growers sustained that long, and an assumption the framework labels elevated. Notably, no margin heroics are demanded: the long-run operating margin the price needs, around 2.3%, is below the roughly 4% earned today. The demonstrated inputs behind the forward case are concrete: $19.8 billion of backlog, with the 10-K estimating "approximately $6 billion, or approximately 29%, of our backlog as of December 31, 2025" converting to revenue in the near term, and a Civil segment whose "Operating margin was 13.7% for 2025 compared to 6.5% in 2024" (accession 0000077543-26-000028).

The cash flow statement is currently the strongest exhibit: $703M of trailing free cash flow, positive in all four quarters, a 17.2% yield on the equity, generated while net income was still digesting legacy items. The balance sheet is net cash, so none of the forward bet is leveraged. The number that reconciles everything is 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.90 to $5.30: delivered, it collapses the trailing-multiple problem on its own; missed, it hands the argument back to the static frames sitting well below today's price.

Catalysts

Guidance execution is the through-line for 2026. Management affirmed adjusted EPS guidance of $4.90 to $5.30 with the first-quarter report, after delivering $1.03 of adjusted EPS (up 58%) on revenue of $1.4 billion (up 11%). Each remaining quarterly print is a checkpoint on whether the backlog is converting at the margins management bid, and the company has pre-committed to an aggressive 2027 marker: adjusted EPS significantly above the top of the 2026 range, on existing backlog visibility.

The awards pipeline is the second stream. Backlog stood at $19.8 billion at quarter-end, and management cautioned it may decline modestly in the near term as revenue recognition outpaces new awards before growth resumes. Large civil pursuits in mass transit and other public infrastructure, the segments where the company's 2025 filing shows its highest operating margins, are the awards to watch; a headline mega-project win would extend the visibility that underpins the 2027 claim, while a dry spell would validate the backlog-peak concern.

Cash and claims round out the calendar. First-quarter operating cash flow of $146.9 million was a Q1 record, up 542% year over year, and continued conversion, or its reversal as working capital normalizes, will show whether the trailing $703M free cash flow run is structural or a settlement-driven spike. Resolution of remaining legacy disputes cuts both ways, as 2025's $54.7 million unfavorable tunneling settlement demonstrated; the filing's claims-as-variable-consideration accounting means dispute outcomes flow directly through recognized profit. With net cash on the balance sheet, any move toward larger buybacks or dividend growth beyond the token $0.24 annual rate would signal management's own read on the durability of the cash.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Civil (reported)

• ACM (AECOM)
• FY2025 10-K: …facilities from time to time in the future as the need arises. ITEM 3. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS As a government contractor, we are subject to various laws and regulations that are more restrictive than those applicable to non-government contractors. Intense government scrutiny of contractors' compliance with those laws and…
• FY2025 10-K: …2021. In the second quarter of fiscal 2024, the Company recorded a $ 103.1 million loss related to a revised estimate of its contingent consideration receivable recognized in its civil infrastructure construction business. 64 Table of Contents During the third quarter of fiscal 2024, the Company resolved…
• PWR (Quanta Services, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …or inadvertences could result in severe criminal or civil fines, penalties, forfeitures, disgorgements or other sanctions, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our reputation, business, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows. In addition, detecting, investigating and resolving…
• FY2025 10-K: Fire Insurance Company, Safeco Insurance Company of America, Federal Insurance Company, Quanta Services, Inc., and the other Indemnitors identified therein (previously filed as Exhibit 99.1 to the Company's Form 8-K filed April 1, 2009 and incorporated herein by reference) 10.46 - Joinder Agreement and Fifth Amendment…
• MTZ (MasTec, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and environmental hazards due to the nature of services we provide and the conditions in which we operate. These hazards could result in health and/or safety incidents from electricity, fires, explosions, mechanical failures and weather-related events, among others. In addition, certain of our customers operate in…
• FY2025 10-K: …civil penalties or other losses, or injunctive or declaratory relief. We could also be subject to litigation in the normal course of business from alleged violations of the Fair Labor Standards Act and state wage and hour laws. We may also become involved in customer disputes related to change orders and/or our…
• PRIM (Primoris Services Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …which could reduce demand for our services or delay our ability to complete projects. Additionally, our failure to comply with applicable regulations could result in substantial fines or revocation of our operating licenses, as well as give rise to termination or cancellation rights under our contracts or disqualify…
• FY2025 10-K: …of January 31, 2024 No No 6/4/2026 ​ ​ 6.2 ​ ​ 7.5 ​ ​ 6.1 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Operating Engineer Trust Funds ​ 95-6032478/001 ​ Green as of June 30, 2024 ​ Green as of June 30, 2023 ​ No ​ No ​ 6/30/2028 ​ ​ 5.0 ​ ​ 3.7 ​ ​ 4.9 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Southern California…
• GVA (GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …condition and results of operations. • Government contracts generally have strict regulatory requirements. Approximately 70% of our construction-related revenue in 2025 was derived from contracts funded by federal, state and local government agencies and authorities. Government contracts are subject to specific…
• FY2025 10-K: …gva:ConsolidatedConstructionCorporateJointVentureMember srt:MinimumMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000861459 us-gaap:VariableInterestEntityPrimaryBeneficiaryMember gva:ConsolidatedConstructionCorporateJointVentureMember srt:MaximumMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000861459…
• STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …coverage for such claims, which in the past have not been material. The Company's Certificate of Incorporation provides for indemnification of its officers and directors. The Company has a directors and officers insurance policy that limits their exposure to litigation against them in their capacities as such.…
• FY2025 10-K: …requirements, including requirements regarding labor relations and subcontracting with designated classes of disadvantaged businesses. All of our operations are also subject to federal, state and local laws and regulations relating to the environment, including those relating to discharges into air, water and land,…
• ROAD (Construction Partners, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …of materials. We and our affiliates are also subject to government inquiries in the ordinary course of business seeking information concerning our compliance with government construction contracting requirements and various laws and regulations, the outcome of which cannot be predicted with certainty. In the opinion…
• FY2025 10-K: Purchase Agreement, dated as of October 20, 2024, by and among Construction Partners, Inc., Asphalt Inc., LLC, the Sellers listed on the signature pages thereto, and John J. Wheeler, in his capacity as the Sellers' Representative (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 2.1 to the Current Report on Form 8-K (File No.…
• FLR (FLUOR CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …our internal controls and policies (including our labor, billing, accounting, purchasing, estimating, compensation and management information systems). The DCAA also has the ability to review how we have accounted for costs under the FAR and CAS. The DCAA presents its findings to the Defense 20 Table of Contents…
• FY2025 10-K: …without required governmental authorization. A failure to comply with these laws and regulations could result in civil or criminal sanctions, including the imposition of fines, the denial of export privileges, and suspensi on or debarment from participation in U.S. government contracts. Employee, agent or partner…

Building (reported)

• ACM (AECOM)
• FY2025 10-K: . 8-K 3.1 3/3/2017 3.6 Certificate of Amendment to the Company's Certificate of Incorporation 10-Q 3.6 5/06/2025 3.7 Third Amended and Restated Bylaws. 8-K 3.1 5/19/2023 4.1 Form of Common Stock Certificate. Form 10 4.1 1/29/2007 4.2 Description of Registrant's Securities. 10-K 4.2 11/19/2020 4.3 Indenture, dated as…
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:CashFlowHedgingMember 2022-10-01 2023-09-30 0000868857 acm:FY2025FourthQuarterAcquisitionMember 2025-09-30 0000868857 us-gaap:OtherCurrentAssetsMember us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember 2025-09-30 0000868857 us-gaap:OtherCurrentAssetsMember us-gaap:FairValueMeasurementsRecurringMember…
• EME (EMCOR Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and sanitization. These trends have led to outsourcing and privatization programs whereby customers in both the private and public sectors seek to contract out those activities that support, but are not directly associated with, the customer's core business. Clients of our building services business include major…
• FY2025 10-K: …approximately 72% of our revenues from our construction operations, approximately 21% of our revenues from our building services operations, and approximately 7% of our revenues from our industrial services operations. For additional information regarding our revenues, see Note 3 - Revenue from Contracts with…
• FLR (FLUOR CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: 5-12-31 0001124198 us-gaap:OtherNoncurrentLiabilitiesMember 2024-12-31 Table of Contents FLUOR CORPORATION INDEX TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Form 10-K ☒ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934…
• FY2025 10-K: …cybersecurity incident, we have an incident response plan which sets forth a framework to report and document such incidents to our cybersecurity incident response team. This framework aims to enable the response team to take actions to monitor, mitigate and remediate such incidents in a timely manner. Cybersecurity…
• KBR (KBR, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …No. 001-33146) 10.45+ Form of Performance Award Agreement (US/International Employee Cash Only) pursuant to Amended and Restated KBR, Inc. 2006 Stock and Incentive Plan (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.7 to KBR's quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2023; File No. 001-33146) 124 10.46+…
• FY2025 10-K: BR, Inc., Bank of America, N.A., as Administrative Agent, Swing Line Lender and a Letter of Credit Issuer, and the other lenders party thereto (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.1 to KBR's current report on Form 8-K filed April 27, 2018; File No. 001-33146) 10.6 First Amendment to Credit Agreement, dated…
• J (JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: 022 and incorporated herein by reference. 10.24# Form of Restricted Stock Unit Agreement (Performance Shares - Earnings Per Share Growth) (awarded pursuant to Jacobs' Stock Incentive Plan). Filed as Exhibit 10.1 to the Registrants Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 and incorporated…
• FY2025 10-K: …quarter of fiscal 2016 and incorporated herein by reference. 10.18# Form of Restricted Stock Unit Award Agreement (awarded pursuant to the1999 Outside Directors Stock Plan). Filed as Exhibit 10.1 to the Registrant's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the second quarter of fiscal 2016 and incorporated herein by…
• STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …101.DEF XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document 101.LAB XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document 101.PRE XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted in Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101) (1) Management contract, compensatory plan or…
• FY2025 10-K: …by the Board of Directors effective May 8, 2025. 10.3.2 (1) Form of Non-Employee Director Restricted Stock Agreement (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 10.2.2 to Sterling Construction Company, Inc.'s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2018, filed on May 8, 2018 (SEC File No. 1-31993)). 10.4…

Specialty Contractors (reported)

• EME (EMCOR Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: Team, Inc., Specialty Welding and Turnarounds, LLC, Cust-O-Fab, Inc., Dunn Heat Exchangers, Inc., Turn2 Specialty Companies, and Wyatt Field Service Company, LLC, among others. The key competitive factors in the industrial services market consist of: (a) availability of skilled workforce; (b) technical expertise; (c)…
• FY2025 10-K: …and sanitization. These trends have led to outsourcing and privatization programs whereby customers in both the private and public sectors seek to contract out those activities that support, but are not directly associated with, the customer's core business. Clients of our building services business include major…
• FIX (COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …for other work that we might forego by committing capacity to this project, and other costs that we incur to support our operations but which are not specific to the project. Typically, customers will seek pricing from competitors for a given project. While the criteria on which customers select a provider vary…
• FY2025 10-K: …our 2025 revenue. Construction, Installation, Expansion and Renovation Services -Construction, installation, expansion and renovation services consist of "design and build" and "plan and spec" projects. In "design and build" projects, the commercial MEP company is responsible for designing, engineering and installing…
• MYRG (MYR GROUP INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …of management, we maintain a focus on pursuing growth opportunities with prospective customers. In addition, our management teams promote and market our services for prospective large-scale projects and national accounts. We believe that our industry experience, technical expertise, customer relationships, emphasis…
• FY2025 10-K: …processing facilities, water/waste-water treatment facilities, mining facilities, intelligent transportation systems, roadway lighting, signalization and electric vehicle charging infrastructure. In our C&I segment, we generally provide our electric construction and maintenance services as a subcontractor to general…
• IESC (IES Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Competition Our competition primarily consists of small, privately owned contractors who generally have limited access to capital. We believe that we have a competitive advantage over these smaller competitors due to our key employees' long-standing customer relationships, our financial capabilities, our employee…
• FY2025 10-K: …or both. A significant portion of our larger projects is awarded from long-term, repeat customers. From time to time, we are contracted on projects with completion times extending beyond one year or over several years, which are generally more complex and difficult to estimate. Competition The electrical and…
• DY (DYCOM INDUSTRIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …industry in which we operate is highly competitive. We compete with other specialty contractors, including numerous local and regional providers, as well as several large corporations that may have financial, technical, and marketing resources exceeding ours. Relatively few barriers to entry exist in the markets in…
• FY2025 10-K: …other contracts that contain customer-specified service requirements. These agreements include discrete pricing for individual tasks. We generally possess multiple agreements with each of our significant customers. To the extent that such agreements specify exclusivity, there are often exceptions, including the…
• PWR (Quanta Services, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …entities that do not have significant assets other than their interests in the project and could be more likely to encounter financial difficulties relating to their businesses. We ultimately may be unable to collect amounts owed to us by customers experiencing financial difficulties or in bankruptcy, and accounts…
• FY2025 10-K: . Certain of our customers assign work to us on a project-by-project basis under MSAs. Under these agreements, our customers generally have no obligation to assign a specific amount of work to us. Additionally, the in-house service organizations of our existing or prospective customers are capable of performing, or…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.