TIC Solutions, Inc. (TIC): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $8.20, TIC Solutions, Inc. (TIC) is priced for -4.0% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TIC

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The company earns no operating profit yet; the inversion runs on the revenue multiple and an assumed steady-state margin.

Solve inputs: computed at a 7.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage, holding a 11.7% terminal operating margin (29.4% gross margin x the 40% mature-conversion prior); each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied revenue growth ~6.6pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~7.4%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: n/a

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and growth-DCF value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Growth

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=5)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Operating profit is negative or near zero and the company has no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so years-to-repay cannot be computed honestly.

Operating profit is negative or near zero and there is no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so interest coverage cannot be computed honestly.

Bullet Takeaways

• TIC Solutions is the newly assembled combination of Acuren's inspection business and NV5's engineering and geospatial platform, completed August 4, 2025 per the FY2025 10-K, with services the filing describes as generating significant recurring revenue from long-standing clients.
• The trailing numbers still show the surgery, not the patient: a $0.10 billion trailing net loss, a weak fundamental-health scorecard, and a composite bankruptcy-risk score in the distress zone make this a turnaround bet, not a finished story.
• Management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance of $2.15 to $2.25 billion revenue and $330 to $355 million adjusted EBITDA in May; the second-quarter print in early August, guided to roughly $570 to $582 million of revenue, is the next test of that path.

Bull Case

Trailing valuation models are measuring a company that no longer exists. The twelve-month numbers blend the old standalone Acuren with a partial year of NV5 Global, acquired August 4, 2025 per the 10-K, plus the merger accounting that comes with bolting a similarly sized engineering and geospatial firm onto an inspection business. What those blended trailing figures cannot see is the run-rate: management guides FY2026 to $2.15 to $2.25 billion of revenue and $330 to $355 million of adjusted EBITDA, and first-quarter revenue of $488.0 million grew 108% year over year with 2.2% organic growth underneath the acquisition math. The integration is running ahead of its own promises, with $17 million of cost synergies already achieved and $15 million expected to land in 2026.

The underlying business is the kind that compounds quietly. The 10-K states it plainly: "We generate significant recurring revenue and repeat business from a diversified base of long-standing clients across a variety of end markets", attributing the durability to the essential, compliance-driven nature of the work. Pipelines, refineries, utilities, and infrastructure owners do not skip mandated inspection and asset-integrity work in a downturn; the spending is regulatory, not discretionary. Layering NV5's geospatial data collection and consulting engineering onto that testing base creates cross-selling surface across more than 12,000 professionals and 250-plus locations, and management expects the Consulting Engineering and Geospatial segments to grow fastest in 2026.

The price is not asking for much of this to work. Every family of valuation methods lands at or above today's $7.53 (July 11, 2026): asset-oriented reads put the price at about 0.8x what they support, peer multiples at 0.6x, and even the cautious growth-crediting methods at 0.7x, with the stock trading below its $9.65 stated book value. What the price implies is similarly modest, an eventual operating margin near 11.7% while allowing revenue to shrink a few percent a year. A buyer here is paying value-stock prices for a business guided to grow, with the demanded margin sitting between what the segments individually deliver and what the synergy plan targets. If the integration simply proceeds on its current schedule, the trailing losses that scare the screens roll off the record quarter by quarter.

Bear Case

The valuation methods all technically support this price, and they disagree instructively about why, because each one is capitalizing a different guess about which company TIC turns out to be. The peer-multiple read is the most generous, but it rests on revenue, not profit, since there is no trailing profit to multiply; the trailing twelve months show a $0.10 billion net loss and a negative operating margin. The asset-based read leans on $9.65 of book value per share, but that book is heavily a creation of merger accounting, and the growth methods credit a margin ramp that exists so far mostly in guidance. Support built on three different hypotheticals is thinner than it looks on a summary line, and the honest read is that the market is paying today for an integration that has three quarters of history.

The distress markers deserve their own paragraph. The composite bankruptcy-risk score sits at 0.96, in the formal distress zone, and the fundamental scorecard is weak on nearly every axis: share count rising, debt higher, margins declining, efficiency falling. Debt runs at 0.76x equity, and the 10-K's own risk language notes that the indebtedness creates "additional cash requirements in order to support the payment of interest on our outstanding indebtedness and increase our vulnerability to adverse changes in general economic and industry conditions". Trailing free cash flow of $37.2 million is a 2.2% yield on the market value, thin coverage for a leveraged integration story, and the first quarter alone produced a $41.5 million net loss.

The merger risk is the classic kind. The 10-K's acquisition risk factors list the potential loss of key employees, contractual relationships, and customers of acquired companies, and this is a people business; rope-access technicians, licensed engineers, and geospatial specialists walk out the door if integration is handled badly. The filing also concedes contract renewals may come on less favorable terms, with a material reduction in revenue and earnings if they slip. The gap between the two profit measures is the bear case in one line: GAAP trailing EBITDA of $0.17 billion versus a guided $330 to $355 million of company-adjusted EBITDA. The distance between those numbers is amortization, integration costs, and adjustments, and if the adjusted figure never converges toward GAAP, the value support every model claims to see was priced off a number the income statement cannot produce.

Valuation

Because the company is not yet earning a normal operating profit, the price reads off sales, and the embedded ask is mild: at about 2x revenue, the price implies the business eventually reaches an operating margin around 11.7% and tolerates revenue drifting down a few percent a year. Today's operating margin is slightly negative, so the entire bet is the turnaround to that steady state, not growth on top of it. That is what makes this a different proposition from most loss-making names: the market is underwriting margin normalization, and nothing else.

The methods line up on the supportive side of $7.53 (July 11, 2026). Asset-oriented approaches read the price at roughly 0.8x what they support, with the stock below its $9.65 book value per share; peer multiples read it at 0.6x; growth-crediting methods at 0.7x. No family finds the price expensive, which for a company with a trailing net loss says the market has already discounted the integration risk heavily. The filing-sourced inputs give the frame its substance: the 10-K describes significant recurring, compliance-driven revenue from long-standing clients, and records the NV5 acquisition closing August 4, 2025, the event that reset the revenue base; management's FY2026 guidance of $2.15 to $2.25 billion in revenue implies the trailing $1.78 billion still understates the combined platform's first full year.

Solvency is where the discount earns its keep. The company is lossmaking at the operating line, debt stands at 0.76x equity, and the composite bankruptcy-risk read is in the distress zone, driven by the goodwill-heavy, freshly levered balance sheet; against that, the current ratio of 3.06 provides near-term liquidity and operating cash flow was positive in three of the last four quarters. The number that decides the story is the spread between GAAP results and the guided $330 to $355 million of adjusted EBITDA: each quarter that reported operating income climbs toward the adjusted figure retires a piece of the turnaround risk, and each quarter it does not keeps this a below-book stock for a reason.

Catalysts

The reporting cadence carries the story. First-quarter results landed May 5-6, 2026 with revenue of $488.0 million, up 108% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $57.7 million, and a $41.5 million net loss; management guided the second quarter to roughly $570 to $582 million of revenue and $90 to $96 million of adjusted EBITDA, and reaffirmed the full-year 2026 outlook of $2.15 to $2.25 billion in revenue and $330 to $355 million in adjusted EBITDA. That puts the early-August print in the position of proving a steep sequential ramp; hitting the Q2 EBITDA range would nearly double the first quarter's profitability in a single step and would be the strongest evidence yet that the adjusted numbers are becoming real ones.

Synergy execution is the second track. The company reports $17 million of cost synergies from the NV5 combination achieved ahead of schedule, with $15 million of savings expected to be realized in 2026; updates to that figure move the margin-normalization math directly. Management has flagged Consulting Engineering and Geospatial as the segments with the higher growth expectations for the year, so segment-level disclosure in the next 10-Q will show whether the acquired NV5 businesses are pulling their weight. The corporate identity work is done, with the Acuren-to-TIC Solutions rebrand effective October 10, 2025, leaving integration, deleveraging, and the quarter-by-quarter convergence of GAAP results toward guidance as the events that will reprice the stock in either direction.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Inspection and Mitigation (reported)

• ACM (AECOM)
• FY2025 10-K: …and daylight hours are more conducive to outdoor activities. The first quarter of our fiscal year (October 1 to December 31) is typically our lowest revenue quarter. The harsher weather conditions impact our ability to complete work in parts of North America and the holiday season schedule affects our productivity…
• FY2025 10-K: …an 62 Table of Contents operating segment. The Company's impairment tests are performed at the operating segment level as they represent the Company's reporting units. Goodwill is evaluated for impairment either by assessing qualitative factors or by performing a quantitative assessment. Qualitative factors, such as…
• TTEK (TETRA TECH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …method of accounting and revenue recognition on contracts, change orders and contract claims, including related unbilled accounts receivable; unbilled accounts receivable, including amounts related to requests for equitable adjustment to contracts that provide for price redetermination, primarily with the U.S.…
• FY2025 10-K: …to be realized. We assess the recoverability of the unamortized balance of our intangible assets when indicators of impairment are present based on expected future profitability and undiscounted expected cash flows and their contribution to our overall operations. Should the review indicate that the carrying value is…
• EXPO (EXPONENT, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …believes will be collected. For all other customers the Company recognizes allowances for doubtful accounts based upon historical write-offs, customer concentration, customer creditworthiness, current and forecasts of future economic conditions, aging of amounts due and changes in customer payment terms. Property,…
• FY2025 10-K: …risk mitigation methods, and provide post-failure investigations. Our consultants review the performance and reliability of industrial processes, manufactured products, and engineered systems, and we determine the root cause of failures. Further, we assist in legal and insurance matters, failure investigations,…
• PSN (Parsons Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …is recognized for each vehicle inspection at the point the Company has completed the inspection. In the Company's industry, recognition of profit on long-term contracts requires the use of assumptions and estimates related to total contract revenue and in particular estimated claims revenue, total estimated cost at…
• FY2025 10-K: …consist of customer relationships, backlog, and covenants not to compete. We assess the recoverability of the unamortized balance of our intangible assets when indicators of impairment are present based on expected future profitability and undiscounted expected cash flows and their contribution to overall operations.…
• ABM (ABM INDUSTRIES INCORPORATED)
• FY2025 10-K: …losses for IBNR Claims and adjust our required self-insurance reserves as appropriate. As part of this evaluation, we review the status of existing and new claim reserves as established by our third-party claims administrators. The third-party claims administrators establish the case reserves based upon known factors…
• FY2025 10-K: …both financial covenants and other covenants that limit our ability to engage in specific transactions. Any failure to comply with covenants in the credit facility could result in an event of default that, if not cured or waived, would have a material adverse effect on us. Impairment of goodwill and long-lived assets…

Consulting Engineering (reported)

• ACM (AECOM)
• FY2025 10-K: …types of customers. • Americas : Planning, advisory, consulting, architectural and engineering design, construction management and program management services to public and private clients in the United States, Canada, and Latin America in major end markets such as transportation, water, government, facilities,…
• FY2025 10-K: …to internal-use software. The guidance removes references to project stages used in ASC 350-40 and clarifies the threshold entities should apply to begin capitalizing internal-use software costs. The new guidance is effective for us starting October 1, 2028, and we may apply the guidance using a prospective,…
• TTEK (TETRA TECH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Our solutions may span the entire life cycle of high-end consulting and engineering projects and include applied science, data analysis, research, engineering, design and project management. We manage our operations under two reportabl e segments. Our Government Services Group ("GSG") reportable segment primarily…
• FY2025 10-K: …for commercial and government clients across the municipal water, energy, transportation, defense and manufacturing sectors. Both CAW and SAGE are included in our CIG segment. In fiscal 2024, we acquired LS Technologies ("LST"), an innovative U.S. federal enterprise technology services and management consulting firm…
• EXPO (EXPONENT, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …clients design safer, more reliable, and higher‑performing products. As advanced materials and electrochemical technologies have become increasingly central to modern devices, understanding how they function - and fail - is essential to ensuring product safety, durability, and competitive performance. 7 We apply…
• FY2025 10-K: …by those clients. Clients that have the capability to perform such services themselves will retain Exponent or other independent consultants because of independence concerns. In each of our practices, we believe that the principal competitive factors are: technical capability and breadth of services, ability to…
• J (JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …see Note 19- Segment Information of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements beginning on page F-1 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Infrastructure & Advanced Facilities (I&AF) In fiscal 2025, Jacobs' Infrastructure & Advanced Facilities business provided end-to-end solutions for our clients' most complex…
• FY2025 10-K: …basis. Please refer to Item 1A- Risk Factors , above, for a discussion of other factors that may cause backlog to ultimately convert into revenues at different amounts. The following table summarizes our backlog for the years ended September 26, 2025, September 27, 2024 and September 29, 2023 (in millions): September…
• STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …presence in our geographic markets, if they so desire, could establish a presence in our geographic markets and compete with us for contracts. In addition, if the use of design-build, construction manager/general contractor (CM/GC) and other alternative project delivery methods continues to increase and we are not…
• FY2025 10-K: …one of our Transportation Solutions design-build projects. Although by contract we pass design responsibility on to the engineering firms that we engage to perform design services on our behalf for these projects, in the event of a design error or omission causing damages, there is risk that the engineering firm, its…
• GVA (GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INC)
• FY2025 10-K: , will reduce our profit on the project. The percentage of fixed price contracts in our unearned revenue was 34.6% and 33.2% at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. All other contract types represented 8.5% and 7.7% of our unearned revenue at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. Within our Construction…
• FY2025 10-K: …the critical audit matters below, providing separate opinions on the critical audit matters or on the accounts or disclosures to which they relate. Revenue Recognition - Estimates of the Forecasted Revenue and Costs to Complete for Multi-Year Fixed Price Contracts in the Construction Segment As described in Notes 1,…

Geospatial (reported)

• TRMB (TRIMBLE INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …sales force to deliver software solutions to asset owners, clients, contractors, subcontractors, and consulting engineers, ensuring that the most appropriate channel is matched to each region for maximum market reach and customer satisfaction. We develop and nurture a global network of independent distributors with…
• FY2025 10-K: …including Conservice, Gopuff, and Ancestry during periods of high growth and business transformation. Prior to that, he served as CAO of Vista Outdoor and held senior roles at Alphabet Inc. and the RTX Corporation. Mr. Bement began his career as an auditor and later worked for the Financial Accounting Standards Board…
• ACM (AECOM)
• FY2025 10-K: 2025-09-30 0000868857 us-gaap:ConsolidatedEntitiesMember 2024-10-01 2025-09-30 0000868857 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember acm:AmericasSegmentMember 2023-10-01 2024-09-30 0000868857 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember acm:InternationalSegmentMember 2023-10-01 2024-09-30 0000868857 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember…
• FY2025 10-K: PlanCashAndCashEquivalentsMember us-gaap:FairValueMeasuredAtNetAssetValuePerShareMember 2025-09-30 0000868857 us-gaap:DefinedBenefitPlanDebtSecurityMember us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel12And3Member 2025-09-30 0000868857 us-gaap:DefinedBenefitPlanDebtSecurityMember us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel1Member 2025-09-30…
• TTEK (TETRA TECH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …included in Item 8. For more information on risks related to our business, reportable segments and geographic regions, including risks related to foreign operations, see Item 1A, "Risk Factors" of this report. Government Services Group GSG provides high-end consulting and engineering services primarily to U.S.…
• FY2025 10-K: …and cloud migration. We design solutions to manage and analyze data for major federal agency programs including data related to health, security, environment and water programs. We provide technical support for the Federal Aviation Administration to optimize the U.S. airspace system and support for related aviation…
• STRL (Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: CMember strl:BusinessCombinationProFormaInformationNonrecurringAdjustmentAnnualIntangibleAssetAmortizationMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000874238 strl:CECFacilitiesGroupLLCMember us-gaap:AcquisitionRelatedCostsMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000874238 strl:CECFacilitiesGroupLLCMember…
• FY2025 10-K: 25-01-01 2025-12-31 0000874238 strl:HeavyHighwayMember strl:TransportationSolutionsSegmentMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000874238 strl:HeavyHighwayMember strl:TransportationSolutionsSegmentMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000874238 strl:AviationMember strl:TransportationSolutionsSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.