TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. (TGTX): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $49.87, TG THERAPEUTICS, INC. (TGTX) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~20.9 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TGTX

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 5: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 13.6% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~3 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~10.3 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: high

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=12)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• TG Therapeutics is a one-drug company that reached profitability: BRIUMVI, its intravenous anti-CD20 antibody for relapsing multiple sclerosis, drove first quarter 2026 total revenue of $204.9 million, up from $120.9 million a year earlier, with $19.8 million of net income.
• The biggest risk is concentration meeting competition: the 10-K states BRIUMVI "directly competes with ocrelizumab, the only other approved intravenously administered anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody" from Roche, and essentially all revenue depends on this single franchise.
• Watch two events: the raised 2026 guidance of about $925 million total revenue with $885 to $900 million of U.S. BRIUMVI product sales, and the Phase 3 subcutaneous BRIUMVI readout expected at year-end 2026 or early 2027.

Bull Case

Read the methods against each other and an unusual thing shows up for a stock that looks like a momentum biotech: the intrinsic lenses roughly agree the price is earned. At $57.10 the price sits within about 4 percent of the sector peer-multiple read on earnings, close to the residual-income read that credits a trailing return on equity near 79 percent, and actually below the Ben Graham formula's read. This is not a company valued on a promise. It is valued on a drug that is already selling, and selling faster than management guided.

The commercial ramp is the whole thesis and it is accelerating. First quarter 2026 total revenue reached $204.9 million against $120.9 million a year earlier, with BRIUMVI U.S. net product revenue of $194.8 million, ahead of management's own $185 to $190 million guided range, and the quarter carried $34.8 million of operating income and $19.8 million of net income. On that strength the company raised full-year 2026 guidance to roughly $925 million of total revenue and $885 to $900 million of U.S. BRIUMVI product sales, up from a prior $825 to $850 million. The product's edge is practical: BRIUMVI is a one-hour infusion twice a year after the starting doses, against a class the 10-K describes as a market with "numerous approved disease-modifying therapies" where infusion time and dosing convenience move prescriptions.

The next act is already in the clinic. A high-concentration subcutaneous formulation cleared Phase 1 bioavailability goals and, if the fully enrolled Phase 3 confirms, would be the first self-administered, at-home, quarterly anti-CD20 therapy for MS, four injections a year against a monthly self-injected rival, which management frames as potentially close to doubling the franchise's addressable market. Behind the drug sits a licensing structure that extends the economics: the 10-K describes royalty rights on ublituximab net sales "at a royalty rate that escalates from mid-single digits to high-single digits" in partnered territories. A profitable base, a raised bar, and a label-expansion catalyst on a known molecule.

Bear Case

The competition is not hypothetical; it is named, funded, and larger. TG Therapeutics sells one drug into a class defined by companies that dwarf it. Its own 10-K is blunt: for BRIUMVI "there are a number of established therapies with which we compete," and it "directly competes with ocrelizumab, the only other approved intravenously administered anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody", Roche's Ocrevus, a multibillion-dollar incumbent. Alongside sits Novartis's self-injected Kesimpta in the at-home segment BRIUMVI's subcutaneous program is chasing. The 10-K lists the levers that decide share in that fight, including "our ability to offer our products for sale at competitive prices" and reimbursement by third-party payors, and a single-product company has less room to give on any of them than a diversified rival does.

That concentration is the structural risk the price does not dwell on. Essentially all revenue comes from one drug in one indication, so any disruption, a competitor's label expansion, a payor formulary change, a safety signal, or the subcutaneous Phase 3 missing, hits the whole company at once. The subcutaneous readout itself is the sharpest example: it is the growth-doubling catalyst in the bull case, and its top-line result is expected only at year-end 2026 or early 2027, with approval not before 2028. Until then the addressable-market expansion is a hope, not a number.

The valuation embeds a long runway that the fundamentals do not yet guarantee. At $57.10 the price pays roughly 84 times trailing operating income, which inverts to operating growth held at the fastest self-funded pace for something like 26 years; of comparable fast-growers, only about 14 percent sustained that kind of pace even a decade. The relative-multiple and asset-based lenses agree the price is stretched, with the price sitting well above the EV/EBITDA and price-to-sales reads. And the balance sheet carries the tension of a company still investing hard: gross debt of $745 million against $573 million of liquid assets, net debt of $172 million, trailing free cash flow negative even as reported earnings turned positive, and a share count that has grown about 4.5 percent a year over four years. A single-product story priced for decades of compounding, funded partly by dilution, has little margin for the one product to stumble.

Valuation

TG Therapeutics is priced two ways at once, and the two nearly meet. Inverted, the $57.10 price (July 10, 2026) pays about 84 times trailing operating income and requires operating growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly 26 years, a duration only about 14 percent of comparable fast-growers have sustained for even ten. That is the elevated reading, and it reflects a company whose trailing earnings are small relative to its market value because the commercial ramp is young. Note the two operating-income bases in the input: the inversion prices a record-basis trailing figure while the solvency strip reads an EDGAR quarterly TTM of about $149 million, and the two differ by more than a quarter; treat them as different measurement lenses, not one number.

The method families disagree by design. Peer multiples, on both EV/EBITDA and price-to-sales, read the price as expensive, sitting several multiples above where the sector medians land, which is the momentum-biotech signature. But the earnings-power and residual-income lenses, which credit the trailing return on equity near 79 percent, land close to or below the price, and the sector-median P/E read sits within about 4 percent of it. What the pattern says is that the price is not a pure growth bet floating free of fundamentals; it is a demanding but earnings-anchored valuation, defensible on today's profitability if the growth persists and stretched if it flattens. The gap between the durability the price assumes and the single-product base under it is the finding.

Solvency is the part that requires care because reported profit and cash flow point different ways. The company posted net income in the first quarter, yet trailing free cash flow is negative and the block flags cash burn, with $745 million of gross debt against $573 million of liquid assets and net debt of $172 million; interest is covered about 5.4 times on trailing operating income. The share count, up about 4.5 percent a year over four years, records that the ramp has been partly equity-funded. The raised 2026 guidance, about $925 million total revenue with $885 to $900 million of U.S. BRIUMVI sales, is the number that decides whether the earnings base grows into the multiple or the multiple has to come to it.

Catalysts

The near-term catalyst is the commercial trajectory against a bar management just raised. First quarter 2026 total revenue of $204.9 million and BRIUMVI U.S. net product revenue of $194.8 million came in above the guided $185 to $190 million range, and the company lifted full-year 2026 targets to roughly $925 million total revenue and $885 to $900 million of U.S. BRIUMVI sales, from a prior $825 to $850 million. The next two prints test whether the raised guidance was conservative or a stretch; the shares rose on the Q1 report even as reported EPS came in light of estimates, so the market is trading the top line, and each quarter's BRIUMVI number is the signal that matters most.

The defining medium-term event is the subcutaneous BRIUMVI program. A high-concentration, low-volume formulation met its Phase 1 bioavailability goals, and the fully enrolled Phase 3 carries a top-line readout expected at year-end 2026 or early 2027, with a potential 2028 approval. If it confirms pharmacokinetic non-inferiority, a quarterly at-home injection, four doses a year against a monthly self-injected competitor, would open the self-administered segment of the anti-CD20 market that BRIUMVI's intravenous form cannot reach, an expansion management describes as potentially close to doubling the franchise opportunity. That readout is the binary the valuation's long-duration assumption is effectively underwriting, so its timing and result are the events to calendar.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• AXSM (AXSOME THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and is not material to the Company's consolidated financial statements. Segment Information Operating segments are defined as components of an enterprise for which separate discrete information is available for evaluation by the chief operating decision maker or decision-making group in deciding how to allocate…
• FY2025 10-K: …competition with respect to our current products and product candidates and will face competition with respect to any product candidates that we may seek to develop or commercialize in the future, from major pharmaceutical companies, specialty pharmaceutical companies, and biotechnology companies worldwide. There are…
• KNSA (Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc)
• FY2025 10-K: …Competitive Pay and Benefits. We provide our employees with competitive base salaries, cash bonus opportunities designed to incentivize achievement of our corporate goals, equity awards and opportunities for equity ownership through our employee share purchase plan and a robust benefit package designed to promote…
• FY2025 10-K: …could be delayed. Risks Related to Competition, Executing our Strategy and Managing Growth We face substantial competition, which may result in others discovering, developing or commercializing drugs before or more successfully than we do. The development and commercialization of new drugs and biologics is highly…
• FOLD (AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …profits from operations. The degree of market acceptance of our product candidates, if approved for commercial sale, will depend on a number of factors, including: -31- Table of Contents • the efficacy and potential advantages compared to competitive or alternative treatments, including generics and gene therapies; •…
• FY2025 10-K: …including commercial enterprises, academic institutions, government agencies, and private and public research institutions. Any product candidates that we successfully develop and commercialize will compete with both existing and new therapies that may become available in the future. Many of our competitors may have…
• SUPN (SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …litigation, pressure from new or existing competitive products, or adverse changes in coverage under managed care programs, the adverse impact on our revenue and profit could be significant. For example, in November 2025 we announced that supplier constraints were impacting our ability to fully meet demand for ONAPGO…
• FY2025 10-K: , materially, and permanently impact our revenues, profitability, and cash flows from those products and may substantially limit our ability to obtain a return on the investments we have made in our products. If our competitors develop or market alternatives for the treatment of our target indications, our commercial…
• ASND (Ascendis Pharma A/S)
• FY2025 20-F: …in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries is intense and our competitors may discover, develop or commercialize products faster or more successfully than us. If we are unable to compete effectively, our business, results of operations and prospects will suffer. • We rely on third-parties to manufacture…
• FY2025 20-F: …regulatory approvals to market one or more of our product candidates (such as the approvals we have obtained for YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA), our revenue will be dependent, in part, upon the size of the markets in the territories for which regulatory approval is granted, the accepted price for the product, the…
• RGEN (REPLIGEN CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …demand for certain therapies. The Trump administration has prioritized cost containment and deregulation, including proposals to expand price transparency, encourage importation of lower-cost drugs, and promote competitive bidding for Medicare and Medicaid programs. In addition, litigation and legislative efforts to…
• FY2025 10-K: …well-suited for new modality applications, which represent a growing portion of our customers' pipelines. • Targeted acquisitions . We intend to continue to selectively pursue acquisitions of innovative technologies and products that address customer pain points. These can either be complementary to our existing…
• ARWR (ARWR)
• FY2025 10-K: …as a single segment as the chief operating decision maker, or CODM, reviews operating results on an aggregate basis and manages the operations as a single operating segment. Refer to Note 16, Segment Reporting , for further details on the segment information. Liquidity The Company's primary sources of financing have…
• FY2025 10-K: …well as enhancing expertise and throughput in clinical and preclinical research and development and commercialization preparation. The Company continually evaluates the business need and opportunity and balances in-house expertise and capacity with outsourced expertise and capacity. Currently, the Company outsources…
• GKOS (GLAUKOS Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …superiority supported by extensive data and innovative features that enhance patient benefit, product performance, and safety. The ophthalmic segment of the medical technology and pharmaceutical industries is dynamic and subject to significant change due to cost-of-care considerations, reimbursement levels,…
• FY2025 10-K: …safety, quality or efficacy, (ii) reflect a broader label indication, or (iii) are available at lower prices. Our competitors include large publicly traded companies or divisions thereof and have more resources, greater name recognition, longer operating histories, more established relationships with healthcare…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.