TASEKO MINES LIMITED (TGB): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $8.19, TASEKO MINES LIMITED (TGB) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~23.6 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/TGB

Headline

FieldValue
TickerTGB
CompanyTASEKO MINES LIMITED
Sector / IndustryBasic Materials
Current price$8.19/sh

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Trailing margin (depressed year)3.0%
Must persist for23.6y
Multiple paid63x mid-cycle operating income

Solve inputs: computed at a 13.9% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~3.3 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~11.5 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

ReferenceValue
vs own history-0.19σ
sustained it ~10 years at this level15%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset5.44x2expensive
Earnings3.65x1expensive
Relative3.97x1expensive
Growth—0—

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=4)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$7.321.12xnoFCF base $0.2B, growth 12% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.8%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$6.441.27xnoExit EV/EBITDA: 38.2x / 43.2x / 48.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative ValuationRelative$2.063.97xyesP/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 1.5x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$1.595.15xyesReference only (book value floor): BV/sh $1.59, ROE negative
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$1.435.72xyesReference only (book value with convergence): BV/sh $1.59, ROE converges to ke
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$4.701.74xnoRev $0.5B, growth 12% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 4.5x / 5.9x / 7.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 6x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$0.00—noNegative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$0.01818.50xnoNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.06B × (1−21%) / WACC 7.8% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset——no—
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$0.01818.50xyesEBITDA $0.09B × sector EV/EBITDA 8.0x (excluded from median)
FCF YieldEarnings$2.243.65xyesFCF $161.4M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings——no—
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings——no—
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$0.1651.16xyesBV $1.59 × (ROIC 0.8% / WACC 7.8%) (excluded from median)
P/Sales SectorRelative$2.063.97xnoRevenue $0.50B × sector P/S 1.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings——no—
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net debt$394.0m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)9.36x
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)7.39x
Interest coverage1.1x
Share count CAGR (dilution)3.3%
Burning cashno

Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 11.2%); the trailing year was depressed.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

Every standard valuation lens sits far below this price, and the bull case begins by conceding that. The price runs roughly three times the zero-growth cash-flow read, about three times the sector sales-multiple read, and more than four times book-based reads. Buyers are plainly not paying for what the business earned over the trailing year. They are paying for what did not exist in the trailing year: Florence Copper, which delivered its first cathode in late February 2026 and produced about 1.5 million pounds in the first quarter as roughly 90 production wells reached a consistent 55,000 to 60,000 pounds per day. Guidance calls for 30 to 35 million pounds in 2026, weighted to the second half, on the way to an 80 to 85 million pound steady-state run rate in 2027. If that ramp lands, the trailing numbers the methods price will be obsolete within six quarters.

The operating base is already inflecting. First quarter 2026 revenue came in at $237 million with adjusted EBITDA of $93 million and net income of $17 million, a sharp turnaround from the prior year as copper prices and volumes improved; the average LME copper price in the quarter was 16 percent higher than the previous quarter. Gibraltar produced 30 million pounds of copper and 717 thousand pounds of molybdenum in the quarter, and management expects more consistent quarterly production in 2026 now that mining is established in the Connector pit. Steady Gibraltar cash flow funds the story while Florence scales.

Florence itself is the unusual asset. It is an in-situ recovery operation, a wellfield feeding an SX/EW plant that produces finished copper cathode in Arizona, without a conventional open pit or mill, and it has become a named piece of the domestic copper supply narrative around U.S. electrification demand. The company is not burning cash while it builds. For a $2.4 billion market cap, the bet is concentrated but legible: one established mine paying the bills, one new asset whose production either shows up in the second half of 2026 or does not.

Bear Case

Copper producers do not compete on brand; they compete on where they sit on the industry cost curve, against every other mine selling the identical metal at the identical price. That is the uncomfortable frame for Gibraltar, which produced first-quarter copper at a total operating cost of US$2.63 per pound, and where management has flagged that current diesel prices alone would add roughly US$0.10 to US$0.15 per pound of cost this year. A cost base like that leaves the established asset's margin hostage to a copper price the company does not set. The quarter just reported benefited from an LME average 16 percent above the prior quarter; the same arithmetic runs in reverse.

Meanwhile the price has already spent the future. At roughly 216 times trailing operating income, today's $7.30 embeds operating growth held at the fastest pace the business can self-fund for something like 33 years, and of comparable fast-growers, only about 15 percent have sustained that kind of pace for even a decade. Note what that requirement absorbs: the Florence ramp to 80 to 85 million pounds is not the upside case, it is roughly the entry fee. If Florence hits every milestone and copper cooperates, the multiple still has to digest years of further compounding before the price is defended. If growth merely arrives and then flattens, the reads the standard methods produce, all of them at a third of the price or less, are where the compression points.

The balance sheet does not leave much cushion for a slow ramp. Gross debt is about $527 million against $138 million of liquid assets, net debt runs near $388 million, and trailing operating income covers interest only about 1.3 times. The equity has been the funding instrument: the share count has grown about 3.3 percent a year over four years, and a first-of-scale wellfield expansion, with more than 40 wells still to come online by late summer and 2026 output explicitly weighted to the second half, is exactly the kind of schedule that slips. A back-loaded guidance year, thin interest coverage, and a price that assumes decades of ceiling growth is a combination with no room for an ordinary operational stumble.

Valuation

Start with what $7.30 (July 10, 2026) is actually buying. Against trailing operating income the market is paying roughly 216 times, and inverted into a growth path, that price requires operating growth held at the company's self-funding ceiling for about 33 years. Among comparable fast-growers, only about 15 percent sustained such a pace for even ten years. The assumption is elevated against anything the trailing business supports, and the reason is not mysterious: the trailing business is one mine, and the price includes a second one that barely existed in the trailing numbers. Florence contributed about 1.5 million pounds of a targeted 80 to 85 million pound annual run rate.

The methods agree with each other and disagree with the market. No family of valuation method reaches the price: it sits around three times the earnings-power read (trailing free cash flow capitalized with no growth credit), about three times the sector sales-multiple read, and more than four times the book-value-based reads. When every family lands this far below, the price is a bet beyond what any standard method supports, which in this case means the market is pricing the 2027 production profile, plus copper prices holding, plus a long tail of growth beyond that. The first quarter's $237 million of revenue and $17 million of net income show the turn beginning, but the distance between those figures and the multiple remains the widest fact in the report.

Solvency is serviceable rather than comfortable. Net debt of about $388 million sits against $138 million of liquid assets, the company is not burning cash, and interest is covered about 1.3 times on trailing operating income, coverage that improves quickly if Florence volumes arrive and deteriorates quickly if copper retreats. The share count, up about 3.3 percent a year over four years, records how the build was financed. What has to be true at this price is specific: Gibraltar holds its 110 to 115 million pound guidance, Florence delivers its second-half-weighted 30 to 35 million pounds and then roughly doubles again in 2027, and the growth does not stop there.

Catalysts

The Florence ramp is the calendar. More than 40 additional production wells are scheduled to come online by late summer 2026, with five drill rigs active, and 2026 guidance of 30 to 35 million pounds is explicitly weighted to the second half. Each quarterly production update therefore carries unusual information: the April update disclosed wellfield rates of 55,000 to 60,000 pounds per day, and the pace of that figure through the summer tells the reader whether the 80 to 85 million pound steady-state target for 2027 remains credible. Management reported that solution flow and grade have stabilized from the wellfield through the SX/EW plant circuits, so the remaining question is scale, not chemistry.

Gibraltar supplies the nearer-term swing factors. The mine is guided to 110 to 115 million pounds of copper in 2026 with more consistent quarterly production now that the Connector pit is established, first-quarter operating costs ran US$2.63 per pound, and management flagged diesel prices as a US$0.10 to US$0.15 per pound headwind at current levels. With the average LME copper price up 16 percent quarter over quarter in Q1, the revenue line is as much a copper-price story as a volume story, and the next two prints will show whether the first quarter's $237 million of revenue and $93 million of adjusted EBITDA represent a new base or a favorable quarter.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Taseko Q1 2026 release, May 2026 · Taseko Q1 2026 production update, April 2026 · Taseko Q1 2026 results, May 2026 · Yahoo Finance, July 2026

View the full interactive TGB report on boothcheck