SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (SYNA): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $100.39, SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED (SYNA) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~25.6 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SYNA

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Solve inputs: computed at a 13.4% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~3.4 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~14.2 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=7)

Solvency

Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 4.1%); the trailing year was depressed.

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Synaptics is now a merger stock: onsemi agreed on June 25, 2026 to acquire the company in an all-stock deal at 1.350 onsemi shares per Synaptics share, expected to close in mid-2027, so the price increasingly tracks the acquirer's stock and the deal's completion odds.
• The asset being bought is the edge AI franchise: Core IoT product sales grew 31% year over year in the March quarter, and full-year fiscal 2026 Core IoT revenue is expected to grow more than 40% to over $385 million.
• The standalone risk the deal papers over is concentration and cyclicality: the 10-K warns the company relies "on a concentrated base of OEMs and ODM customers, and the loss of a major customer" can move results (accession 0000817720-25-000073), and trailing operating income is negative.

Bull Case

The moat argument just received the strongest possible endorsement: a strategic buyer looked at Synaptics' technology stack and agreed to pay for the whole company in stock. Onsemi's June agreement to acquire Synaptics at 1.350 shares per share, framed by the acquirer as extending its reach beyond power and sensing into intelligent systems, is a bid specifically for the Astra AI-native compute and Veros wireless connectivity franchise. What makes that stack defensible is the combination: low-power edge compute, multimodal sensing, and connectivity silicon designed together, an integration few competitors own end to end. The 10-K describes the strategy in the company's own words: to keep using "technological expertise to reduce the overall size, cost and power consumption of our product solutions while increasing their applications, capabilities and performance" while pursuing growth in IoT (accession 0000817720-25-000073), and notes the company is "integrating AI and ML technologies into our products, services and internal processes, including in edge computing, voice and vision interfaces and wireless connectivity" (same accession).

The growth evidence sits in the newest segment. Core IoT product sales rose 31% year over year in the March quarter, driving double-digit total revenue growth, and management expects full-year fiscal 2026 Core IoT revenue to grow more than 40% to over $385 million; earlier in the year the segment ran up 74%. The design-win pipeline is visibly broadening, with an Origin AI partnership integrating WiFi-sensing software into Veros and Astra SoCs and an Edgecore AIoT Edge Hub built on the Astra SL1620 platform shown at CES. Edge AI is the rare semiconductor category where the demand curve is still forming, and Synaptics is early with silicon shipping.

For a holder today, the bull case has two layers. If the deal closes, the 1.350 exchange ratio converts each share into participation in a larger, diversified analog-and-intelligent-systems platform, with roughly 12% pro forma ownership for Synaptics holders in a company with the scale to fund the edge AI roadmap properly. If the deal were somehow to fail, the standalone story is the fastest-growing part of the company compounding at 40%-plus while $97 million of trailing free cash flow and a shrinking share count fund the transition. Either way, the fulcrum asset is the same technology the acquirer just validated.

Bear Case

The competitive field is crowded with names that all want the same edge-AI-connectivity sockets. Silicon Labs and Cirrus Logic fight in adjacent low-power silicon, MaxLinear's own filing describes what life is like in this neighborhood, "increased competition has resulted in price pressure, decreased demand, reduced revenue and profitability, and loss of market share" (accession 0001288469-26-000011, MaxLinear 10-K), and the giant platform vendors treat connectivity as a feature to bundle rather than a business to price. Synaptics' own 10-K concedes the structural exposure: the markets it serves are "highly competitive and subject to significant volatility, driven by macroeconomic conditions, evolving technical standards", and the company relies "on a concentrated base of OEMs and ODM customers" where a single loss matters (accession 0000817720-25-000073). The Mobile segment already demonstrated the mechanism, with revenue of $191.8 million down 9% on "end-of-life shipments to a large U.S. mobile customer" (same accession).

The financial base under the growth story is thinner than the narrative. Trailing operating income is negative, a minus 6.4% margin, and even normalized to the company's own through-cycle economics the margin runs about 4.1%, which is why today's price works out to roughly 112 times mid-cycle operating income, an assumption that requires growth held at the self-funding ceiling for on the order of three decades. Only about 15% of comparable fast-growers sustained that kind of run even ten years. Core IoT's 40% growth is real, but it is the smallest large segment pulling against enterprise and mobile lines that have been shrinking, and net debt of $432 million with interest coverage of 4.8 times leaves less slack than the story assumes.

Since June 25, the stock's real risk profile is deal arithmetic. The consideration is all stock at a fixed 1.350 ratio, so a holder is now long onsemi's price with no cash floor, through a closing window that stretches to mid-2027 with stockholder and regulatory approvals still ahead. Cross-border semiconductor deals face genuine regulatory uncertainty, and a fixed-ratio stock deal transmits every wobble in the acquirer's own cycle directly into this share price. If the deal breaks, the market re-prices a loss-making standalone semi carrying an elevated growth premium; if it closes, the upside is capped at whatever 1.350 onsemi shares are worth on the day. That asymmetry is the bear case in one sentence.

Valuation

Two frames now govern this price, and they answer different questions. The first is deal arithmetic: since June 25, each Synaptics share represents a claim on 1.350 onsemi shares at a closing expected in mid-2027, so day-to-day the stock moves with the acquirer and with completion probability. The second frame is what $126.86 asks of the underlying business, and the answer is demanding: trailing earnings are cycle-depressed (the trailing operating margin is negative 6.4%), so the read uses the company's own through-cycle margins, about 4.1%, on current revenue, and even then the price pays roughly 112 times mid-cycle operating income, implying growth held at the self-funding ceiling for something like 29 years. Only the sales-multiple lens reaches the price, a sector 5 times price-to-sales on $1.17 billion of revenue lands about 16% above it, while the cash-flow projections sit at roughly half the quote and capitalized free cash flow far below. The pattern says the market is pricing the strategic value of the technology, not the standalone earnings path, which is precisely what the acquisition confirmed.

The filing-sourced inputs frame both the promise and the drag. The growth engine is the IoT strategy the 10-K commits to, extending "technological expertise to reduce the overall size, cost and power consumption" of edge silicon (accession 0000817720-25-000073), now producing 40%-plus Core IoT growth toward $385 million this fiscal year; the drag is disclosed in the same filing, with Mobile revenue of "$191.8 million" down 9% on a large customer's end-of-life shipments (same accession). Solvency is adequate rather than strong: $432 million of net debt against $404 million of liquid assets, interest coverage of 4.8 times, positive free cash flow of $97 million, and a share count drifting down 1.5% a year. From here the decisive quantity is not a margin or a multiple but a probability: the odds the exchange ratio converts, which caps this valuation to onsemi's, against the odds the market re-prices a standalone company whose static reads sit far below today's quote.

Catalysts

The onsemi transaction owns the calendar. Announced June 25, 2026 as an all-stock deal at 1.350 onsemi shares per Synaptics share with unanimous board approval on both sides, it is expected to close in mid-2027 subject to Synaptics stockholder approval and regulatory clearances. The proxy filing and shareholder vote, antitrust reviews across the jurisdictions a global semiconductor deal touches, and any second-request or foreign-regulator development are each price-moving events; so is every material move in onsemi's own stock, since the fixed exchange ratio makes Synaptics a derivative of its acquirer until closing.

Operationally, the company keeps reporting through the deal window, and the Core IoT trajectory is the number that matters to the strategic story. The March quarter delivered 31% Core IoT growth with double-digit total revenue growth, and management guided full-year fiscal 2026 Core IoT revenue above $385 million, up more than 40%. The fiscal fourth-quarter report, due on the company's usual August cadence, tests that guide. The design-win drumbeat around the Astra and Veros platforms continues in the background, following the Origin AI WiFi-sensing partnership and the Edgecore AIoT Edge Hub collaboration unveiled at CES; each new platform win adds to the franchise onsemi is buying, and, should the deal ever falter, to the standalone case the market would fall back on.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• SLAB (SILICON LABORATORIES INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …in our backlog are subject to changes in delivery schedules or cancellation at the option of the purchaser, typically without penalty. Our backlog may fluctuate significantly depending upon customer order patterns which may, in turn, vary considerably based on rapidly changing business circumstances. Accordingly, we…
• FY2025 10-K: …condition • Our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected by global or industry-specific shortages of memory components or other key components necessary for our customers' products • Competition within the numerous markets we target may reduce sales of our…
• CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …deposits or if a depository institution is subject to other adverse conditions in the financial or credit markets, there is no guarantee that we have access to such uninsured deposits, which could restrict access to our cash or cash equivalents and could adversely impact our operating liquidity, financial condition,…
• FY2025 10-K: …ability to compete effectively and to expand our business will depend on our ability to continue to recruit key engineering talent, execute on new product developments, partner with customers to create compelling products for their applications and provide cost efficient versions of existing products. We compete with…
• MXL (MaxLinear, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: Increased competition has resulted in price pressure, decreased demand, reduced revenue and profitability, and loss of market share, any of which could in the future materially and adversely affect our business, revenue, revenue growth rates, if any, and operating results. As our products are integrated into a variety…
• FY2025 10-K: …In addition, our industry experiences substantial consolidation. We consider our primary competitors to be companies with a proven track record of supporting market leaders and the technical capability to develop and bring to market competing broadband RF receiver and RF receiver SoC, modem, and high speed…
• SIMO (Silicon Motion Technology Corporation)
• FY2025 20-F: …in accordance with our projections and demand for our products increases more than expected, our operating results could be affected by lost business opportunities, less competitive economies of scale, and damaged relationships with our customers. Our profitability depends on our ability to respond to rapid…
• FY2025 20-F: …a minimum requirement. Our operations have been ISO 9001 certified since 1999. Competition We face competition from multiple competitors, including Microchip and Phison, our flash memory customers' internal captive developments and small Chinese merchant controller suppliers. The markets for our products are…
• RMBS (RAMBUS INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …have recently sold to their customers. These variations are expected to continue in the foreseeable future. Our revenue from companies headquartered outside of the United States accounted for 82% of total revenue in 2025 as compared to 64% in 2024 and 62% in 2023. We expect that revenue derived from international…
• FY2025 10-K: …reduced market share, a reduced number of licenses or may experience tightening of customers' operating budgets, difficulty or inability of our customers to pay our licensing fees, reduction in downstream demand, lengthening of the approval process for new products and licenses and consolidation among our customers.…
• POWI (POWER INTEGRATIONS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …with alternatives from such companies as Infineon, Mitsubishi Electric, Fuji Electric, Semikron and Hangzhou Firstack Technology Co., as well as driver circuits made up of discrete devices. Our motor-driver ICs compete with power modules from such companies as ON Semiconductor, Infineon, STMicroelectronics,…
• FY2025 10-K: …is subject to change based on the relative pricing of solutions that compete with ours. Variations in product mix, end-market mix and customer mix can also cause our gross margin to fluctuate. Also, because we purchase a large percentage of our silicon wafers from foundries located in Japan, our gross margin is…
• MCHP (MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED)
• FY2025 10-K: …balances of the Company's receivables. Note 3 . Geographic and Segment Information The Company's business is made up of two operating segments, semiconductor products and technology licensing. These segments represent management's view of the business for which separate financial information is available and…
• FY2025 10-K: …the Company's manufacturing capabilities to help ensure the efficiency of the Company's operations and fulfillment of customer requirements. The technology licensing segment includes sales and licensing of the Company's intellectual property. The CODM uses segment gross profit for evaluating each segment's…
• QRVO (Qorvo, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …affect our operating results through lower prices for our products, reduced demand for our products, losses of existing design slots with key customers and a corresponding reduction in our ability to recover development, engineering and manufacturing costs. For example, due to lower profitability from increased…
• FY2025 10-K: …by rapid advances in technology and new product introductions. Our customers' product life cycles can be short, especially in mobile devices, and our competitiveness depends on our ability to improve our products and processes faster than our competitors, anticipate changing customer requirements and successfully…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.