SYMBOTIC INC. (SYM): what the price requires

At today's price, SYMBOTIC INC. (SYM) is priced for 7.5% operating margins for ~22 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-11 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SYM

Headline

FieldValue
TickerSYM
CompanySYMBOTIC INC.
Sector / IndustryIndustrials
Current price$43.65/sh

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basisrevenue-multiple
EV / sales paid9.8x
Steady-state operating margin assumed7.5%
Must persist for22.3y

The company earns no operating profit yet; the inversion runs on the revenue multiple and an assumed steady-state margin.

Solve inputs: computed at a 11.2% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.9 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~17 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

ReferenceValue
vs own history-1.52σ
sustained it ~10 years at this level14%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all say richly valued; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches the price. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset—0—
Earnings2.78x2expensive
Relative4.16x3expensive
Growth0.87x4justifies

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=9)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$50.670.86xyesFCF base $0.9B, growth 21% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$52.980.82xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 742.8x / 744.8x / 746.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative ValuationRelative$10.494.16xyesP/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 2.5x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$1.1438.29xyesBook value floor: BV/sh $1.14, ROE negative (excluded from median)
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$1.0342.38xyesBook value with convergence: BV/sh $1.14, ROE converges to ke (excluded from median)
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$49.900.87xyesRev $2.5B, growth 21% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 8.5x / 10.4x / 12.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$0.00—noNegative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0
Margin TrajectoryGrowth$14.023.11xyesMargin ramp: -0% → 12% over 7yr, rev growth 21% (input: historical growth; tapered)
Earnings Power ValueEarnings——no—
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset——no—
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$3.2213.56xyesEBITDA $0.03B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$17.792.45xyesFCF $845.2M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$14.043.11xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.64B (FCF $0.85B − SBC $0.21B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings——no—
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset——no—
P/Sales SectorRelative$10.494.16xyesRevenue $2.52B × sector P/S 2.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings——no—
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net cash$2.0b
Share count CAGR (dilution)29.6%
Burning cashno

Operating profit is negative or near zero and the company has no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so years-to-repay cannot be computed honestly.

Operating profit is negative or near zero and there is no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so interest coverage cannot be computed honestly.

Operating income basisTrailing value
Inversion record (pg-bars)$184.2m
EDGAR quarterly TTM-$45.7m
Divergence503.0%

The inversion header prices the record basis trailing operating income; this strip reads the EDGAR quarterly TTM, and the two diverge by more than 10 percent here. Treat them as different measurement bases, both labeled, neither silently substituted.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

Here is the unusual thing about Symbotic's valuation: the forward cash-flow methods land above the price. For most richly-storied automation names the growth projections are the only defense and they strain to reach the quote; here they clear it by roughly 15%, because the deployment model is already cash-generative. Customers prepay for systems as they are built, which is how a company still hovering near operating break-even produced $845 million of trailing free cash flow and sits on $2.0 billion of net cash with zero gross debt. The market's price is a bet on scale economics, and the cash statement is early evidence the bet is collecting.

The demand side is contractual, not conceptual. Contracted backlog stands at $22.7 billion, roughly nine years of current revenue, with 70 systems now deployed, revenue up 23% to $676 million in the March quarter, adjusted EBITDA more than doubling to $78 million, and the first GAAP net profit of $9 million. The 10-K frames the structural driver: consumer expectations now "demand a larger variety of items to be delivered quickly and seamlessly" which "has placed significant strain on the traditional supply chain and the people who support it" (accession 0001837240-25-000278). Against incumbent automation vendors, the filing draws the technical contrast by name, describing competitors including "Witron, Honeywell, Dematic, Vanderlande, Knapp AG, SSI Schaefer and Swisslog" as running "a disparate set of mechanically complex point solutions with numerous single points of failure" (same accession), while Symbotic's system builds mixed-SKU "rainbow pallet" loads sequenced to a customer's store plan (same accession), the outcome grocery distribution actually pays for.

The expansion vectors are stacking. Nineteen legacy Walmart robotics sites have been upgraded, a bot is operating in a freezer environment, a new healthcare customer signed, Fox Robotics was acquired to extend the platform, and the GreenBox joint venture with SoftBank, now doing business as Exol, is building fully automated warehouse-as-a-service capacity that turns system sales into recurring revenue. Analysts have nudged targets into a $41 to $70 range on the improving trajectory. A company with a decade of contracted demand, net cash, positive free cash flow, and its first GAAP profit is a very different speculative growth story than the ones that run on dilution and hope.

Bear Case

Before any ratio, look at the shape of the relationship at the center of this company. Symbotic's largest customer is also a major shareholder and a development partner: the 10-K describes a Master Automation Agreement with Walmart to develop accelerated pickup and delivery prototypes, and discloses that part of a "$200 million payment made to Walmart" was accounted for as "consideration payable to Walmart, as a customer" (accession 0001837240-25-000278). When a supplier pays its anchor customer while recognizing revenue from it, the economics of the relationship are genuinely hard to read from outside, and nearly everything in the growth story, the site upgrades, the freezer pilots, the backlog conversion pace, runs through that single counterparty's capital-spending decisions. The market noticed: the stock fell after the last print partly on scrutiny of the Walmart stake.

Now the price. At about 9.8 times revenue, today's quote implies the business eventually earns a 7.5% operating margin while growing revenue at its self-funding ceiling for roughly 22 years; historically, only about 14% of comparable fast-growers sustained that trajectory even ten years. The company currently runs a negative 1.8% trailing operating margin on the EDGAR basis, so both halves of the assumption, the margin and the multi-decade duration, remain unproven. Peer-multiple reads land at roughly a quarter of the price and earnings-power methods at under half, meaning the entire quote rests on the growth projections and nothing else. The $9 million of quarterly GAAP net income is a milestone, not a margin structure: it is a 1.3% net result on $676 million of revenue.

The backlog, the bull's favorite number, deserves its own skepticism. $22.7 billion converts to revenue only as fast as customers schedule deployments, and deployment timing has been the recurring wobble in the story, with analysts flagging GreenBox and deployment-timing concerns even while raising targets. The competitive field the filing names, Honeywell, Dematic, Vanderlande, Knapp, SSI Schaefer, Swisslog, Witron (accession 0001837240-25-000278), consists of large, established integrators who will not concede the market while Symbotic's system proves out. And the reported share count has grown nearly 30% a year over the past four years as the post-SPAC share structure unwinds, so a holder's claim on the eventual economics keeps being subdivided while the 22-year story plays out.

Valuation

Symbotic is not yet earning a normal operating profit, so the price reads against sales: about 9.8 times revenue, which implies the business eventually reaches roughly a 7.5% operating margin while growing at its self-funding ceiling for about 22 years. The near-term pace is within what the company has recently delivered, 23% growth in the latest quarter, but only about 14% of comparable fast-growers sustained such a trajectory even ten years, which is why the read on the assumption is elevated. The method families divide sharply. The growth projections land above the price, near $50 against $43.65, because they capitalize the unusual cash dynamics of the deployment model: $845 million of trailing free cash flow, collected ahead of revenue as customers fund their own system builds. Everything static lands far below: capitalized earnings power at under half the price, and sales-multiple reads at roughly a quarter, since a sector-average revenue multiple cannot see the backlog.

Two measurement bases deserve one bridge: trailing operating income reads negative $46 million on the EDGAR quarterly basis, while the record basis the price analysis uses reads positive; the honest summary is that the company operates around break-even with profitability just emerging, confirmed by the first GAAP net profit of $9 million in the March quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $78 million. The revenue engine behind the multiple is contractual: $22.7 billion of contracted backlog across a customer base anchored by the Walmart relationship the 10-K details through the Master Automation Agreement (accession 0001837240-25-000278). Solvency is a strength rather than a caveat: $2.0 billion of net cash, no gross debt, and no burn. The structural watch item is the share count, up nearly 30% a year over four years as the share structure converts. What the price needs is not survival, the balance sheet has settled that, but two decades of compounding at a margin the company has yet to demonstrate for a single full year.

Catalysts

Backlog conversion is the near-term driver management itself pointed at: with $22.7 billion contracted, the company guided to a strong fiscal fourth quarter on sequential growth as systems move through deployment. The March quarter delivered revenue of $676 million, up 23% and ahead of consensus, with adjusted EBITDA of $78 million more than doubling year over year and GAAP net income turning positive at $9 million. The next quarterly print, on the company's usual early-August cadence, shows whether the margin inflection compounds and whether deployment timing, the story's recurring friction point, holds schedule across the 70-site installed base.

The expansion threads each carry their own dates and proof points. The Walmart program continues to deepen, with 19 legacy robotics sites upgraded and a bot operating in a freezer environment without, in management's words, showstoppers. The Exol joint venture with SoftBank, formerly GreenBox, is building fully automated warehouse-as-a-service capacity, and evidence that third-party customers are filling that capacity would open a recurring-revenue line the current multiple only partially credits. The Fox Robotics acquisition and a new healthcare customer win extend the platform beyond the retail distribution core. On the sell side, targets have drifted up into a roughly $41 to $70 range on improving margins and the new wins, tempered by GreenBox and deployment-timing concerns, leaving the stock's reaction function simple: deployment pace and margin per deployment, quarter by quarter.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Symbotic (consolidated) (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Q2 FY2026 earnings release, May 2026 · Q2 FY2026 earnings call, May 2026 · analyst coverage, May 2026 · Simply Wall St coverage, May 2026

View the full interactive SYM report on boothcheck