STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC. (SYBT): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $84.92, STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC. (SYBT) is priced for more than 15.8% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SYBT

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The implied return on book is non-physical at this price-to-book and is suppressed as misleading. The price sits beyond a 12.6% return on equity sustained for 40 years and is not resolvable as a sustainable-ROE point. The rarity read below is the honest signal.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.2% cost of equity; ROE searched up to the 12.6% ROE ceiling.

How unusual the bet is: n/a

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that call it expensive: Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=4)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

The issuer is a funded financial business. Debt, interest, and cash flows are operating inputs, so industrial EV, net-debt, WACC, and free-cash-flow lenses do not apply; value the common-equity claim with book, earnings, capital, and payout economics.

No unit-level total common-equity value is stated. Each financial unit requires supported standalone common equity, normalized earnings, capital adequacy, and payout capacity. Consolidated debt, interest, and cash are operating balances, not an enterprise-to-equity bridge; company-level book, earnings, capital, and payout lenses remain the coherent cross-checks.

Solvency

Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).

Bullet Takeaways

• Stock Yards Bancorp is a Louisville-based commercial bank with a genuine second engine: a Wealth Management & Trust group that posted record net new business in the first quarter while loans grew 9% year over year to $7.23 billion.
• The price pays about 2 times book, at the very top of the peer group, which assumes the bank keeps earning elite returns on equity for decades; it earns about 13% now, so the premium is durability, not a turnaround.
• Watch the approach to the $10 billion asset line, total assets reached $9.47 billion in March, because the 10-K says "strategically managing our balance sheet in anticipation of growing above $10 billion in total assets will be a major priority" (accession 0001437749-26-005830).

Bull Case

Stock Yards is that unusual thing in community banking: a growth-stage franchise wearing a mature bank's risk profile, and reading it as a sleepy regional misses the story. The numbers move like a growth company's. First-quarter net income rose to $36.6 million, or $1.24 per diluted share, from $1.13 a year earlier, beating the $1.17 consensus, with loans up 9% year over year and deposits up 6%. Growth is coming from both sides of the franchise at once: net interest income reached $78.4 million on margin expansion and loan growth, while non-interest income hit $24.6 million on higher wealth management, card, and treasury fees, with the Wealth Management & Trust group generating record net new business in the quarter.

The wealth business is the structural differentiator. The 10-K describes WM&T's economics plainly: it "provides customers fiduciary and investment management services as agreed upon in asset management contracts" with fees earned across a series of distinct services (accession 0001437749-26-005830), which is fee revenue that compounds with markets and referrals rather than with the rate cycle. Few banks of this size own a trust franchise meaningful enough to headline the quarter. On the lending side, demand indicators are improving from within the existing book: the filing notes line utilization "ending at 48.0% as of December 31, 2025 compared to 45.9% at December 31, 2024", with C&I utilization up to 37.0% from 33.7% (same accession), meaning growth is arriving without reaching down the credit spectrum, supplemented by the Field & Main acquisition the filing targets for full customer and employee retention.

The capital math supports the ambition. The CET1 ratio stands at about 12% as of March 2026, comfortably above requirements, while only about 28% of earnings went out as dividends and buybacks last fiscal year, leaving roughly 70% of a 13% return on equity retained to compound book value. A bank earning elite returns, retaining most of them, growing loans at 9%, and building a fee engine beside the spread business is the profile the market's premium multiple is describing. The bull case is that the premium is earned and the compounding has years to run.

Bear Case

Two external variables own this thesis, and the bank controls neither. The first is the rate cycle. First-quarter results were powered by net interest margin expansion, and margin-driven earnings are borrowed strength: when the Fed eases, the spread between what Stock Yards earns on its $7.23 billion loan book and pays on $7.76 billion of deposits compresses, and the earnings growth the market is capitalizing at 2 times book decelerates on a schedule set in Washington. The second is a line on a regulatory map: the $10 billion asset threshold. Total assets reached $9.47 billion in March, and the 10-K devotes strategic priority to it, holding elevated cash "in preparation for approaching the $10 billion regulatory threshold for total assets" and naming balance-sheet management around the crossing "a major priority" (accession 0001437749-26-005830). Crossing brings heavier compliance costs and changes the economics of the fee lines; managing to stay under it means deliberately braking the very growth the multiple assumes. Either path taxes the story.

The price itself is the third problem. At about 2 times book, the top of the peer group, the market assumes elite returns on equity persist for decades; historically, only about 61% of banks earning at this level sustained it even ten years. The bank earns about 13% on equity now, so nothing needs to improve, but nothing can slip either: the peer-multiple read on blended earnings sits modestly above the price, while the book-value-based reads land 20% to 30% below it, and a tangible-book framing lands lower still. A premium bank that stops being premium does not fall to fair; it falls through it, because the multiple and the earnings de-rate together.

Credit is the quiet cyclical exposure underneath. The filing's own loss-pool taxonomy leads with "Commercial Real Estate - Non-Owner Occupied - Includes investment real estate loans secured by a variety of commercial property" (accession 0001437749-26-005830), the category regional-bank credit cycles are made of, and the bank uses participation agreements with other banks to spread that concentration. Loss rates have been benign, which is exactly the point: a 9% loan growth rate underwritten at the top of a benign credit cycle in Kentucky-area CRE is untested by definition, and the share count creeping up 1.8% a year through acquisitions means holders are diluted while they wait to find out.

Valuation

A bank is worth the return it earns on its capital, so the read starts at price-to-book: about 2 times, at the very top of the peer group. What that buys is an assumption that Stock Yards keeps earning a roughly 12.6% return on equity, the elite tier of the panel, for something like 35 years before normalizing, equivalent to holding about 14.7% in perpetuity. Against that requirement the bank currently earns about 13%, so the price asks for continuation, not improvement, though historically only about 61% of banks earning at this level sustained it a decade. The method families split along exactly that line: earnings-based reads and peer multiples land at or slightly above the price (the blended earnings multiple runs 11.7 times against a sector 10), while book-anchored approaches land 20% to 30% below it and a tangible-book framing at $30.42 per share lands lower still. The spread between the earnings reads and the book reads is the durability premium, priced explicitly.

The balance-sheet frame for a bank is capital and payout rather than leverage: deposits fund the book, the CET1 ratio stands at about 12% as filed for March 2026, and the company returned about 28% of earnings as dividends and buybacks in the latest fiscal year, retaining the rest to fund 9% loan growth. Two filing-sourced facts shape the forward arithmetic. First, the fee engine: WM&T earns contractual fiduciary and investment management fees "as agreed upon in asset management contracts" (accession 0001437749-26-005830), a revenue line the rate cycle does not own. Second, the ceiling: the same filing describes elevated cash held "in preparation for approaching the $10 billion regulatory threshold" (same accession), which means near-term growth is being deliberately shaped around a regulatory line the bank will cross on its own terms. The decisive question the 2-times-book price poses is single: how long elite returns last. Everything in the current prints says they are intact today; the multiple has prepaid for a long tomorrow.

Catalysts

The quarterly earnings cadence is the main event track, with the second-quarter report due on the company's usual late-July schedule. The first quarter set a high bar: $36.6 million of net income, $1.24 per diluted share against a $1.17 consensus, net interest income of $78.4 million on margin expansion, and record net new business in Wealth Management & Trust driving non-interest income to $24.6 million. The items that move the stock from here are the margin trajectory as the rate environment shifts, whether loan growth holds near the 9% year-over-year pace, and whether the WM&T new-business record converts into a visibly compounding fee line.

The structural event on the horizon is the $10 billion crossing. Total assets stood at $9.47 billion at the end of March, and the February 10-K frames balance-sheet management around the threshold as a stated priority, with elevated cash positioning already in place (accession 0001437749-26-005830). Watch for management commentary on timing and on the Field & Main integration, where the filing targets customer and employee retention as the measure of success. Capital deployment is the other lever: with CET1 around 12% and just 28% of earnings currently paid out, the bank has room to raise the dividend, buy back stock, or fund another fill-in acquisition, and which lever management pulls will say a great deal about how it weighs the growth-versus-threshold tradeoff over the next several quarters.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Commercial Banking (reported)

• SRCE (1st Source Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …is evaluated on a company-wide basis. The commercial banking segment provides a broad array of financial products and services including commercial and consumer banking services, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance to individual and business clients through most of its 78 banking center locations in 19…
• FY2025 10-K: …and leases or paid on deposits. The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve have had a significant effect on the operating results of commercial banks and are expected to do so in the future. The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve are influenced by various factors, including economic growth, inflation,…
• FFIN (First Financial Bankshares, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …nonaffiliated third parties. Under the final rule the regulators adopted, all banks must develop initial and annual privacy notices which describe in general terms the bank's information sharing practices. Banks that share nonpublic personal information about customers with nonaffiliated third parties must also…
• FY2025 10-K: …operate in a similar manner, have similar customers and report to the same regulatory authority, and therefore operate one line of business (community banking) located in a single geographic area (Texas). The Company's Chief Executive Officer has been identified as the chief operating decision maker ("CODM"). The…
• UBSI (UNITED BANKSHARES INC/WV)
• FY2025 10-K: …and commercial customers. Digital Banking is available on a multitude of devices to include a browser-based experience, mobile (Apple, Android) and tablet applications. Digital Banking allows customers to manage their financial lives from any place they can access the internet (cellular or Wi-Fi). Customers can…
• FY2025 10-K: …District of Columbia. United categorizes these commercial loans by industry according to the North American Industry Classification System ("NAICS") to monitor the portfolio for possible concentrations in one or more industries. As of the most recent fiscal year-end, United has one such industry classification that…
• NBTB (NBT BANCORP INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …a community bank with local decision-making, providing a broad array of banking and financial services to retail, commercial and municipal customers. The financial condition and operating results of the Company are dependent on its net interest income, which is the difference between the interest and dividend income…
• FY2025 10-K: …operating income in the consolidated statements of income. The Company is subject to over-the-counter derivative clearing requirements, which require certain derivatives to be cleared through central clearing houses. Accordingly, the Company clears certain derivative transactions through the Chicago Mercantile…
• FBNC (FIRST BANCORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …residential real estate construction and mortgage loans, revolving lines of credit, letters of credit, and loans for personal uses, such as home improvement, and automobiles. Commercial real estate loans include loans secured by owner-occupied and non-owner occupied commercial buildings for improved commercial,…
• FY2025 10-K: …to approve mergers and assumptions of deposit liability transactions by member banks, and to prevent capital or surplus diminution in such transactions if the resulting, continuing, or assumed bank is an insured member bank. The Bank is a member of the Federal Reserve, and accordingly the Federal Reserve also…
• CBSH (COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …are also subject to collateralization requirements and must be conducted on arm's length terms. Covered transactions include (a) a loan or extension of credit by the banking subsidiary, including derivative contracts, (b) a purchase of securities issued to a banking subsidiary, (c) a purchase of assets by the banking…
• FY2025 10-K: …innovation, convenience, reputation, industry knowledge, and price. In its two largest markets, the Company has approximately 10% of the deposit market share in Kansas City and approximately 7% of the deposit market share in St. Louis. Operating Segments The Company is managed in three operating segments: Commercial,…
• BOKF (BOK FINANCIAL CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: Personnel expense increased $12.8 million, or 7%, largely driven by increased incentive compensation costs, annual merit increases, and salary adjustments. Non-personnel expense increased $3.3 million, or 3%, as the prior year included a recovery of operational losses. The average outstanding balance of loans…
• FY2025 10-K: …$46.3 million, including a $33.3 million increase in personnel expense and a $13.0 million increase in non-personnel expense. The increase in net income before taxes attributed to Funds Management and Other reflects the ongoing application of the Company's transfer pricing methodology. Table 14 - Net Income Before…
• ABCB (Ameris Bancorp)
• FY2025 10-K: …our focus on a long-term strategy of expanding and diversifying our franchise in terms of revenues, profitability and asset size. Our growth historically has been enhanced significantly through both organic growth and acquisitions. We expect to continue to enhance our franchise through prudent acquisition activity…
• FY2025 10-K: …with state and federal banking regulators, in addition to the U.S. Department of Justice, the CFPB, the Drug Enforcement Administration and the Internal Revenue Service. Violations of AML requirements can also lead to criminal penalties. In addition, the federal banking agencies are required to consider the…

WM&T (Wealth Management & Trust) (reported)

• TROW (PRICE T ROWE GROUP INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …U.S. / Global / International: Target Date, Custom Target Date Target Allocation Global Allocation Global Income Managed Volatility Custom Solutions Real Assets Retirement Income Alternatives U.S. / Global / International: Private Credit Leveraged Loans Mezzanine Real Assets / CRE Structured Products Stressed /…
• FY2025 10-K: …as of December 31, 2025. Equity Growth Core Value Concentrated Integrated (Quantitative, Fundamental, Custom Solutions) Impact U.S.: All-Cap, Large-Cap, Mid-Cap, Small-Cap, Sectors, Tax Efficient Large-Cap, Mid-Cap, Small-Cap, Tax Efficient Large-Cap, Mid-Cap, Small-Cap, Tax Efficient Large-Cap (Value) Large-Cap…
• AMG (AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …0001004434 false 2025 FY P10D http://www.amg.com/20251231#AmortizationAndImpairmentsOfIntangibleAssets http://www.amg.com/20251231#AmortizationAndImpairmentsOfIntangibleAssets iso4217:USD xbrli:shares iso4217:USD xbrli:shares xbrli:pure amg:affiliate utr:Y amg:segment 0001004434 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001004434…
• FY2025 10-K: …and in determining the allocation of resources of the Company's reportable segment. The CODM is regularly provided expense information consistent with the expense categories presented in the Company's Consolidated Statements of Income. 81 Table of Contents AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC. NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED…
• APAM (Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: Equity Strategy / Global Opportunities Strategy / Global Value Strategy / Franchise Strategy-MSCI All Country World Index; Global Discovery Strategy-MSCI All Country World Small Mid Cap Index; Non-U.S. Small-Mid Growth Strategy-MSCI All Country World Index Ex USA Small Mid Index; U.S. Mid-Cap Growth Strategy-Russell…
• FY2025 10-K: …Stock; Artisan Global Equity Fund-Global Large-Stock Growth; Artisan Global Opportunities Fund-Global Large-Stock Growth; Artisan Global Value Fund-Global Large-Stock Value; Artisan High Income Fund-High Yield Bond; Artisan International Fund-Foreign Large Growth; Artisan International Small-Mid Fund-Foreign…
• VCTR (Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …vctr:AmundiUsAcquisitionMember 2025-12-31 0001570827 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0001570827 2025-04-01 0001570827 us-gaap:EmployeeStockOptionMember 2024-12-31 0001570827 vctr:O2026Q1DividendsMember us-gaap:SubsequentEventMember 2026-02-04 2026-02-04 0001570827…
• FY2025 10-K: 2025-12-31 0001570827 vctr:ExchangeTradedFundMember vctr:InvestmentManagementFeesMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001570827 vctr:TermLoansMember 2025-09-23 0001570827 us-gaap:RestrictedStockMember vctr:ShareBasedCompensationAwardTrancheSixtySevenPercentOverOneYearMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001570827…
• WT (WisdomTree, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …our acquisition of Ceres Partners, LLC, a leading U.S.-based alternative asset manager specializing in farmland investments. The Company has the following wholly-owned operating subsidiaries: · WisdomTree Asset Management, Inc. ("WTAM") is a New York based investment adviser registered with the SEC, providing…
• FY2025 10-K: …Conduct Authority currently providing distribution and support services to ManJer, WTMAML and WML. · WisdomTree Europe Limited is a U.K. based company which is the legacy distributor of the WMAI ETPs and WisdomTree UCITS ETFs. These services are now provided directly by WTUK. WisdomTree Europe Limited is no longer…
• BEN (FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the Company. We have one operating segment, investment management and related services. We offer our services and products under our various distinct brand names, including, but not limited to, Alcentra ® , Apera ® , Benefit Street Partners ® , Brandywine Global Investment Management ® , Canvas ® , Clarion Partners ®…
• FY2025 10-K: …compared to the Euro. Long-term inflows increased 8% to $343.9 billion, as compared to the prior year, driven by higher inflows across equity, fixed income, and alternative strategies, particularly in open-end funds, retail separately managed accounts, private funds, and sub-advised mutual funds. This growth was…
• IVZ (Invesco Ltd.)
• FY2025 10-K: 10.3 on Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2025 RSAs - Restricted stock awards RSUs - Restricted stock units S&P - Standard & Poor's SEC - U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission SMAs - Separately managed accounts SOFR - Secured Overnight Financing Rate Term Loan Agreements - $500.0 million three-year and $500.0…
• FY2025 10-K: .0 billion floating rate Revolving Credit Agreement, increasing the borrowing capacity to $2.5 billion and extending the expiration date to May 16, 2030. 30 Table of Contents In addition to our previously announced broader strategic product and distribution partnership with Barings (MassMutual's global asset…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.