STANDEX INTERNATIONAL CORP/DE/ (SXI): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $325.51, STANDEX INTERNATIONAL CORP/DE/ (SXI) is priced for +21.6% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SXI

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.4% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.3pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=16)

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Standex has quietly rebuilt itself around electrical-grid components: Electronics posted record revenue of $119.7 million in the March quarter with a book-to-bill of 1.14, and sales into grid, space, and defense markets are expected to reach roughly $270 million, about 30% of the company.
• The price is the stretch: at about 45 times operating income, the market needs growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly nine years, a persistence only about 15% of comparable fast-growers have historically delivered.
• Watch whether the acquired growth becomes organic growth: the Amran/Narayan Group "has contributed $84.4 million of net sales and $13.7 million of net income" since acquisition per the 10-K (accession 0001437749-25-024450), and the fourth-quarter print in August tests the guided mid-to-high single-digit organic pace.

Bull Case

The trajectory is the argument. Revenue rose 8% in the March quarter with 6.5% organic growth, adjusted operating margin climbed to 19.7%, and adjusted EPS grew 13.5% to $2.21, the latest step in a multi-year march that has taken the company's mix from diversified industrial odds and ends toward electrification hardware. Every line is moving the same direction at once: growth accelerating, margins expanding, leverage falling. Management even sold a slower business into the strength, divesting Federal Industries for roughly $70 million and using about $62 million to pay down debt, taking net leverage to 1.9 times.

The engine is Electronics, and the fuel is the grid buildout. Segment revenue hit a record $119.7 million with a book-to-bill of 1.14, grid-related sales grew about 20%, and the company is adding capacity in Texas, India, Croatia, and Mexico to serve demand it cannot currently satisfy. The acquisitions that positioned Standex here are producing disclosed, auditable results: the 10-K reports the Amran/Narayan Group "has contributed $84.4 million of net sales and $13.7 million of net income" since acquisition (accession 0001437749-25-024450), a 16% net margin on acquired revenue, while the November 2024 purchase of Custom Biogenic Systems added "advanced cryogenic equipment, including unique isothermal" storage technology to the Scientific segment (same accession). New products alone are expected to contribute roughly 300 basis points of fiscal 2026 growth.

The end-market map is the durability claim. Sales into fast-growing markets, grid, space, defense, are headed toward roughly $270 million, about 30% of the company, and management guided the fourth quarter to mid-to-high single-digit organic growth on those tailwinds. The filing's own outlook adds "continued stability in hybrid and electric vehicle programs despite softness in general automotive end markets" (accession 0001437749-25-024450). Transformers, relays, and cryogenics are not glamorous, but they sit directly under grid capex, defense electronics, and biotech cold chains, three demand curves with a decade of visibility. That is the compounding case the price is betting on.

Bear Case

The price has a story baked into it, and the story has a single load-bearing assumption: that the Electronics segment's grid-driven surge is a decade-long structural shift rather than a capex cycle. At about 45 times operating income, today's quote requires growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly nine years. Historically, only about 15% of comparable fast-growers sustained that pace so long. Every other part of the thesis, the margin expansion, the portfolio pruning, the capacity additions, is downstream of grid demand persisting. Utility transformer backlogs are real today, but they are the kind of demand that arrives in waves, and a company adding simultaneous capacity in Texas, India, Croatia, and Mexico is making a bet that the wave does not crest before the plants fill.

The second fragility is that recent growth is partly purchased, not compounded. The Amran/Narayan Group contributed "$84.4 million of net sales and $13.7 million of net income" in its first partial year (accession 0001437749-25-024450), flattering headline growth in exactly the segment the market is capitalizing most richly; the company's auditors singled out the valuation of Amran/Narayan customer-relationship intangibles as a critical audit matter in the same filing. Standex's own risk factors are candid about the model's dependency: "an inability to identify or complete future acquisitions could limit our future growth. We may experience difficulties in integrating acquisitions" (accession 0001437749-25-024450). A compounding story that needs continuous acquisition is a different, riskier animal than one that grows from its own products.

The supply chain adds a geopolitical hinge: the filing notes the company maintains "manufacturing facilities in China" and imports components and finished goods from them as part of its low-cost sourcing strategy (accession 0001437749-25-024450), an exposure that tariff escalation prices quickly. And the valuation methods are nearly unanimous about the premium: asset-based reads sit at roughly a third of the price, earnings-power methods lower still, peer multiples about 25% below, and only the growth-projection methods reach $315.85. Free cash flow of $54 million trailing, against a $3.8 billion market value, means the cash yield today is under 1.5%; the entire return depends on the nine-year story holding. If grid orders normalize for even a few quarters, the multiple has a long way to travel toward what the static methods can defend.

Valuation

Standex's price is a duration bet. At about 45 times operating income, the market is not paying for a rate of growth the company has never shown, the near-term pace is within what it has recently delivered, but for that pace to persist near its self-funding ceiling for roughly nine years. About 15% of comparable fast-growers historically sustained such a run. The method families tell the same story from four directions: asset-value reads land around a third of the price, earnings-power methods land lower still after averaging five years of operating income that predate the portfolio's current shape, peer multiples sit about 25% short even at a blended 24 times earnings, and only the forward-growth family reaches the quote, and then only by projecting high-teens growth with today's 18.4 times EV/EBITDA held flat over six years. When one family alone can reach the price, the premium is a durability premium: the market is paying for compounding the static methods structurally cannot see.

The filing supplies the inputs under that premium. The Electronics segment's expansion is partly acquired, with the Amran/Narayan Group contributing "$84.4 million of net sales and $13.7 million of net income" in its first reported stretch (accession 0001437749-25-024450), and partly organic, with the March quarter's 6.5% organic growth and 19.7% adjusted operating margin marking the current run rate. Solvency does not threaten the bet: $369 million of net debt runs under 2 times trailing pre-tax operating income, interest coverage is 5.8 times, the share count is flat, and the Federal Industries proceeds cut leverage further to 1.9 times on management's measure. The downside is not the balance sheet; it is the multiple. A 21.5% operating margin business with real grid tailwinds supports a premium price. What it must keep earning, quarter after quarter for most of a decade, is this particular premium.

Catalysts

The fourth-quarter report, due on the company's usual early-August cadence for the June fiscal year-end, carries the guided test: management pointed to mid-to-high single-digit organic growth in the fiscal fourth quarter, driven by new product launches and tailwinds in electrical grid, space, defense, and aviation end markets. The March quarter set the baseline with revenue of $224.6 million, adjusted operating margin of 19.7%, and adjusted EPS of $2.21, up 13.5% year over year, alongside a record $119.7 million Electronics quarter with a book-to-bill of 1.14 and grid sales up about 20%.

Capacity and portfolio moves are the structural catalysts. Grid-serving expansions in Texas, India, Croatia, and Mexico convert today's oversubscribed demand into shippable revenue as they come online, and the completed sale of Federal Industries for roughly $70 million, with about $62 million applied to debt and net leverage down to 1.9 times, leaves the balance sheet positioned for the next bolt-on. New products are expected to contribute roughly 300 basis points to fiscal 2026 growth, and the company's stated trajectory takes fast-growth market sales to about $270 million, roughly 30% of the total. The items that would move the story fastest in either direction: grid order rates and book-to-bill in Electronics, the pace at which the new plants fill, and any fresh acquisition in the transformer-components space where the Amran/Narayan integration set the template.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• SPXC (SPX TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …• Resolution of Dispute with Former Representative ◦ During the fourth quarter of 2023, we recorded a charge within "Other operating expense" of $9.0 related to the resolution of a dispute with a former representative at one of our businesses within the Detection and Measurement reportable segment. ◦ See Note 15 to…
• FY2025 10-K: …of future market behavior. Although to our knowledge no one customer accounted for more than 10% of our consolidated revenues, many of our businesses derive revenues from large projects or key customer relationships and any of the aforementioned factors, whether individually or in the aggregate, could have a material…
• CR (CRANE COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …industrial industries. We expect these segments to outgrow the overall process market, driven by investment in sustainability and clean energy, aging infrastructure, tightening wastewater regulations and an aging population with a growing demand for healthcare. Crane has a track record of innovation and being a…
• FY2025 10-K: We expect core sales to be driven by demand in the pharmaceutical, water and waste-water and cryogenic markets offset by ongoing sluggishness in the chemical markets. We expect segment operating profit to increase compared to 2025 due primarily to the contribution from the Panametrics, Reuter-Stokes, and optek-Danulat…
• WTS (WATTS WATER TECHNOLOGIES INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …oversight and governance, skilled personnel, and reliable data. In addition, our competitors may more effectively leverage these technologies to improve efficiency, reduce costs, or develop differentiated offerings. If we are unable to responsibly develop, deploy, and manage artificial intelligence technologies, our…
• FY2025 10-K: …result in decreased revenues and profits. We encounter intense competition in all areas of our business. To remain competitive, we will need to invest continually in manufacturing, product development, marketing, customer service and support and our distribution networks. We may not have sufficient resources to…
• CECO (CECO ENVIRONMENTAL CORP.)
• FY2025 10-K: …$173.9 million in 2024, an increase of 32.3%. The increase is primarily attributable to the Company's acquisitions of Verantis and WK and the divestiture of its Fluid Handling business. Approximately $66.6 million of net sales in 2025 is attributable to acquisitions that have occurred during the preceding…
• FY2025 10-K: …by reference herein. Business Segments The Company's operations are organized and reviewed by management along its product lines and end markets that the segment serves and are presented in two reportable segments. The results of the segments are reviewed through segment profit, which represents income from…
• NVT (nVent Electric plc)
• FY2025 10-K: …growth and social and political instability in the industries and/or markets where we compete could negatively affect our revenues and financial performance in future periods, result in future restructuring charges, and adversely impact our ability to grow or sustain our business. Macroeconomic and political…
• FY2025 10-K: …that compete with ours. We compete based on technical expertise, reputation for quality and reliability, timeliness of delivery, previous installation history, contractual terms and price. Some of our competitors attempt to compete based primarily on price, localized expertise and local relationships. In addition,…
• WWD (WOODWARD, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …We operate in highly competitive industries and, if we are unable to compete effectively in one or more of our markets, our business, financial condition, and results of operations will be adversely affected. We face intense competition from a number of established competitors in the United States and abroad, some of…
• FY2025 10-K: …Sales Order Backlog For each of our reportable segments, we have elected to quantify backlog in a manner consistent with the definition of remaining performance obligations. Our remaining performance obligations by segment, excluding material rights, are shown in the table below: October 31, 2025 Percent Expected to…
• BWXT (BWX Technologies Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …capabilities, high regulatory licensing costs and quality of products and services. In addition, significant portions of the designs, processing and final product are classified by the U.S. Government, requiring applicable personnel to obtain and maintain U.S. Government security clearances. This segment also engages…
• FY2025 10-K: …operations of $68.1 million and an increase in revenues of $52.2 million associated with the acquisition of A.O.T., which was completed on January 3, 2025. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in revenues associated with our advanced technologies business. Operating income increased $17.0 million to…
• ITT (ITT INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …ability to remain competitive and result in a loss of customers, market share or product sales. Maintaining and improving our competitive position will require our continued investment in manufacturing, research and development, engineering, marketing, customer service and support, and our distribution networks.…
• FY2025 10-K: …to base salaries, we offer numerous benefits for eligible employees, including annual bonuses, stock awards, an employee stock purchase plan for employees in the U.S., a 401(k) Plan, healthcare and insurance benefits, health savings and flexible spending accounts, paid time off, family leave, flexible work schedules,…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.