SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. (SWKS): what the price requires
At today's price, SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. (SWKS) is priced for +5.1% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SWKS
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | SWKS |
| Company | SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. |
| Sector / Industry | Technology |
| Current price | $58.78/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 12.9% |
| Operating margin (mid-cycle) | 20.8% |
| Margin compression implied | -7.9pp |
| Trailing margin (depressed year) | 9.1% |
| Implied growth | 5.1% |
| Multiple paid | 11x mid-cycle operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.5% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~5.2pp.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~-1.2%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.27σ |
| cohort percentile (of 177 peers) | 12 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by earnings-power and relative-multiple and growth-DCF value, while asset-based lands below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.54x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.13x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.15x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.67x | 5 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Earnings, Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=19)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $102.96 | 0.57x | yes | FCF base $0.7B, growth 2% (input: historical growth), terminal g 2.5%, WACC 8.2%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $79.19 | 0.74x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 17.6x / 19.6x / 21.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $51.20 | 1.15x | yes | P/E 22x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 18.5x / 22.0x / 25.5x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $100.97 | 0.58x | yes | DPS $2.84, g=6.3% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $87.71 | 0.67x | yes | Stage 1: 17% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $25.93 | 2.27x | yes | BV/sh $38.28, ROE (TTM) 6.3%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $20.91 | 2.81x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $51.61 | 1.14x | yes | Rev $4.0B, growth 2% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.8x / 2.2x / 2.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $39.95 | 1.47x | yes | EPS $2.42, growth 17% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=1.48 (Fair) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $78.24 | 0.75x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.96B × (1−22%) / WACC 8.2% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $20.24 | 2.90x | yes | BV $38.28 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 6.3% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 4.1%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $45.66 | 1.29x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.42 × BVPS $38.28) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $48.27 | 1.22x | yes | EBITDA $0.44B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $51.99 | 1.13x | yes | FCF $703.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $35.17 | 1.67x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.47B (FCF $0.70B − SBC $0.23B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $78.09 | 0.75x | yes | EPS $2.42 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $2.78 | 21.14x | yes | BV $38.28 × (ROIC 0.6% / WACC 8.2%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $134.27 | 0.44x | yes | Revenue $4.04B × sector P/S 5.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $59.93 | 0.98x | yes | EPS $2.42 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 16.5% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 24.8x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $26.16 | 2.25x | yes | EPS $2.42 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $74.7m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 0.12x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 0.09x |
| Interest coverage | 29.8x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -2.2% |
| Burning cash | no |
Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 20.8%); the trailing year was depressed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Skyworks is in the middle of the largest event in its history, a roughly $22 billion cash-and-stock merger with Qorvo that management now expects to close by the end of 2026, ahead of the original early-2027 timeline.
- Concentration is the standing risk the 10-K states plainly: in each of the last three fiscal years "one customer accounted for greater than ten percent of our net revenue", and three customers represented 82% of gross accounts receivable (accession 0000004127-25-000085).
- Watch the FTC review, which issued a second request on the merger, and whether the cyclical gap closes: trailing operating margin runs 9.1% on the EDGAR basis against the roughly 21% the company has earned through the cycle.
Bull Case
The counterintuitive number in Skyworks' data is the cash. Reported operating income has been crushed by the RF downcycle, yet free cash flow ran $704 million over the trailing year, nearly twice the depressed operating profit on the EDGAR quarterly basis. A semiconductor company whose cash generation outruns its income statement is one whose P&L is describing the cycle, not the franchise. The franchise is what the 10-K describes: about "5,200 worldwide issued patents and other intellectual property that we own and control" underpinning RF integration few competitors match (accession 0000004127-25-000085), and a model built on "customer-driven solutions, which leverage the unique strength of our intellectual property and product portfolio while providing high value and greatly reducing time-to-market" (same accession).
The Qorvo merger converts that franchise into a different company. The October 2025 agreement, roughly $22 billion in cash and stock at 0.960 Skyworks shares plus $32.50 per Qorvo share, is expected to deliver $500 million in annual cost synergies and dilute the single-customer dependence both RF houses have lived with for a decade. Shareholders approved the deal in February, and on June 26 management pulled the expected close forward to the end of 2026. Accelerating a merger timeline through an FTC second request is not what companies do when the integration planning is going badly. Beyond handsets, the filing points at the growth vector the combined company inherits: with "the rapid transition towards electrification and advanced safety in vehicles, we are focused on high growth segments and content" (accession 0000004127-25-000085).
Meanwhile the standalone company pays you to wait. The dividend runs $2.84 per share, the company repurchased "12.7 million shares of its common stock for $837.6 million" in fiscal 2025 with about $1.2 billion remaining under the February 2025 authorization (accession 0000004127-25-000085), and the share count has fallen 2.2% a year over four years. Net debt is a rounding error at $75 million with interest coverage near 31 times. At about 12 times mid-cycle operating income, a multiple in the lower half of the peer range, the market is pricing a cyclical trough as if it were the business, right before the business doubles in scale.
Bear Case
The cycle question for RF semiconductors is not whether demand recovers but where sustainable earnings sit when it does, and Skyworks' own filing describes the pattern: "such periods of industry downturn are characterized by diminished product demand" and pricing pressure (accession 0000004127-25-000085). The valuation on the page assumes today's 9.1% trailing operating margin mean-reverts toward the roughly 21% the company earned through the cycle. The bear case is that some of the compression is not cyclical. Handset RF content is a mature market where the biggest buyer designs more silicon in-house every year, and each insourcing step converts what looked like trough earnings into the new baseline. If the true mid-cycle margin has stepped down, the comfortable-looking 12 times normalized operating income quietly becomes a much fuller multiple on real forward earnings.
The concentration math sharpens that risk. The 10-K discloses that in each of fiscal 2025, 2024, and 2023 "one customer accounted for greater than ten percent of our net revenue" and that "three customers represented 82% of our aggregate gross accounts receivable" as of October 2025 (accession 0000004127-25-000085). A supplier whose receivables sit that concentrated does not set prices; it accepts them. The same filing attributes the fiscal-year revenue decline to weaker "demand for our mobile and Wi-Fi products" (same accession), which is the core of the book, not the periphery.
The Qorvo merger, the bull's centerpiece, carries its own bear reading. The FTC has issued a second request, so the regulatory outcome is genuinely open, and the $32.50-per-share cash component of a $22 billion deal must be financed onto a balance sheet that is currently pristine. Merging two companies that both serve the same concentrated customer does not diversify the customer; it doubles the exposure while adding integration risk and $500 million of synergies that exist, for now, on slides. Trailing return on equity is 6.3%, which is why the asset-based methods put the price at more than double their reads. If the combined entity spends 2027 integrating while handset content keeps leaking to in-house silicon, the market will be valuing a bigger company with the same structural problem.
Valuation
The price analysis here runs on normalized earnings, and the distinction does real work: trailing operating income is cycle-depressed (9.1% margin on the EDGAR quarterly basis, against roughly 21% through-cycle margins on current revenue), so at $60.39 the market is paying about 12 times mid-cycle operating income. That embeds roughly 7.5% annual operating-profit growth for five years, a pace within what the company has recently delivered and a multiple in the lower half of the peer range. The method families sort into a value pattern rather than a growth one. The forward cash-flow approaches land well above the price, some 40% higher as a family, because they capitalize the $704 million of trailing free cash flow at growth rates the RF cycle has historically supported. Earnings-power and peer-multiple reads land close to the price, about 15% below it. Only the asset-value family calls the price rich, at less than half, and it gets there by reading the trough 6.3% return on equity as permanent. The characterization is a value-supported name: the price needs normalization, not a story.
The filing supplies the hard inputs under that read. Fiscal 2025 revenue fell on softer "demand for our mobile and Wi-Fi products" (accession 0000004127-25-000085), which is the cyclical hole the normalization fills, and the capital-return record is disclosed directly: "12.7 million shares of its common stock for $837.6 million" repurchased in fiscal 2025 with roughly $1.2 billion still authorized (same accession), alongside a $2.84 dividend. Solvency is a non-issue standalone: $75 million of net debt, $1.4 billion of liquid assets, interest coverage near 31 times, share count down 2.2% a year. The open variable is the Qorvo transaction, which will restructure both sides of this arithmetic, adding deal debt for the cash consideration while roughly doubling the revenue base. Until it closes, the price rests on one question: whether the 21% through-cycle margin is still the right anchor for a handset RF franchise, or a memory of one.
Catalysts
The Qorvo merger timeline dominates the calendar. Skyworks announced on June 26, 2026 that it expects to complete the acquisition by the end of 2026, ahead of the prior early-2027 projection. Shareholders approved the deal-related proposals at a special meeting in February 2026, leaving regulatory clearance as the gating item: the FTC issued a second request under HSR, extending the review. Any resolution of that review, a clearance, a remedy agreement, or a challenge, is the single largest price event available. The deal terms fix the arithmetic at 0.960 Skyworks shares plus $32.50 in cash per Qorvo share, roughly $22 billion in total, with $500 million of annual cost synergies projected once combined.
On the operating side, the quarterly cadence tracks the handset cycle's turn. Fiscal 2025 closed with net revenue of $4.1 billion and a GAAP operating margin of 12.2%, and the trailing period has run below that as mobile and Wi-Fi demand stayed soft. The next quarterly print, on the company's usual early-August cadence for the June quarter, gives the first read on whether second-half handset builds and the new-model ramp lift utilization. The 10-K's growth thesis beyond phones, content gains from vehicle "electrification and advanced safety" systems (accession 0000004127-25-000085), shows up in the broad-markets line each quarter and is the piece of the story the merger is designed to scale. Capital returns continue in the meantime: the $2.84 per-share dividend and the remaining $1.2 billion buyback authorization stay in place through the deal window.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Skyworks Solutions (single segment) (reported)
- QRVO (Qorvo, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SLAB (SILICON LABORATORIES INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SMTC (SEMTECH CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MCHP (MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ON (ON Semiconductor Corporation)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
company announcement, June 2026 · merger announcement, October 2025 · deal coverage, 2026 · fiscal 2025 results, November 2025