Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $20.22, Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) is priced for +24.4% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/STVN

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 8.8% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~8.1pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=12)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• Stevanato makes the unglamorous half of the injectable-drug boom, the glass syringes, cartridges, and vials that GLP-1 and biologic therapies ship in, and its premium mix is compounding: high-value solutions grew 17 percent in the first quarter to reach 47 percent of revenue, with GLP-1 products contributing roughly 21 to 22 percent of the total.
• The biggest specific risk is that the price already assumes the boom: at about 28x company-wide operating income, today's $19.65 (July 10, 2026) implies operating profit growing roughly 23 percent a year for five years, a pace only about 37 percent of comparable fast-growers have sustained.
• Watch the capacity ramps that convert backlog into revenue: Fishers, Indiana is slated for commercial production around end-2026 to early 2027, new cartridge lines in Latina target early 2027, and cartridge capacity is fully booked for 2026.

Bull Case

Read the balance sheet as a statement of intent. Stevanato carries about $370 million of net debt and produced almost no free cash flow over the trailing year (roughly $24 million), not because the business is weak but because management is pouring essentially every operating dollar, plus borrowings, into new capacity: the Fishers, Indiana campus for the U.S. market and new ready-to-use cartridge lines in Latina, Italy. Debt sits at a comfortable fraction of annual earnings with interest covered about seven times, so this is a funded buildout, not a stretched one. Companies do not construct plants on two continents simultaneously unless the order book demands it, and management says cartridge capacity is already fully booked for 2026.

The demand pulling that capacity forward is the structural shift of modern medicine toward injectables. First-quarter revenue rose 7 percent (10 percent at constant currency) to 273.6 million euros, but the mix is the story: high-value solutions, the premium syringes and ready-to-use formats where Stevanato earns its best margins, grew 17 percent and now make up 47 percent of revenue, while GLP-1-related products contributed roughly 21 to 22 percent of the total and biologics revenue rose 15 percent. Every point of that mix shift is margin: gross margin expanded 30 basis points and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 150 basis points to 23.9 percent in the quarter. Drug containment is a business where regulatory qualification locks a supplier into a molecule's lifecycle; once a GLP-1 franchise validates Stevanato glass and devices, switching is a multi-year regulatory event no manufacturer undertakes casually.

Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of 1.260 to 1.290 billion euros of revenue with adjusted EBITDA of 331.8 to 346.9 million euros, and the two megaprojects arriving at the turn of the year convert today's capex drag into tomorrow's operating leverage. The bull case in one line: a qualification-locked supplier to the fastest-growing drug class in the world, mid-buildout, with the spending phase ending just as the booked demand arrives.

Bear Case

The multiples are pricing what has not happened yet. At roughly 28 times company-wide operating income, today's price requires operating profit to compound near 23 percent a year for five years, against a business that grew revenue 7 percent last quarter and earns a 17 percent operating margin today. Only about 37 percent of comparable fast-growers sustained that required pace for five years. Every static valuation frame says the same thing from a different direction: the peer-multiple read puts the price about 77 percent above what sector multiples defend, the normalized earnings-power read sits at roughly a quarter of the price, and the book-return frames land near a third. Only the forward-growth lens reaches $19.65, and it does so by holding today's roughly 27x EV/EBITDA flat for six years while the growth arrives on schedule.

The growth arriving on schedule is precisely what the operational record makes worth questioning. Free cash flow over the trailing year was approximately $24 million on a $5.4 billion market cap, because the capacity buildout consumes everything the operations produce; the share count has drifted up about 1.9 percent a year rather than down; and the two flagship expansions, Fishers and the Latina cartridge lines, deliver commercial production at the end of 2026 into early 2027, which means the payoff window has already been pushed to the outer edge of what the current multiple can wait for. Capacity that arrives late, or arrives into a customer destocking cycle, hits a stock priced this way twice: once through the earnings miss and once through the multiple.

Concentration compounds the fragility. GLP-1-related products are now roughly a fifth of revenue, which ties Stevanato's growth to a single therapeutic class where the drugmakers themselves are racing toward oral formulations that need no syringe at all, and where pharma procurement teams have every incentive to qualify second sources once volumes justify it. The engineering segment, about a fifth of the business, is lumpy project work with industrial-cycle exposure. None of this makes Stevanato a bad business; it is a good business priced as a flawless one, and in the scenario where injectable-drug demand merely grows well rather than explosively, the static frames that today sit far below the price are the ones that describe where it settles.

Valuation

At $19.65 (July 10, 2026), the market is paying about 28 times company-wide operating income, which implies operating profit growth of roughly 23 percent a year for the next five years. That is the whole bet in one number. The pace is not impossible, the company's premium mix is genuinely accelerating, but history is sobering about duration: only about 37 percent of comparable fast-growers sustained this level for five years. The read lands within range rather than stretched mostly because the near-term drivers are visible and booked, not because the requirement is modest.

The families of methods split exactly the way they do for every quality compounder mid-ramp. Only the forward-growth lens reaches the price, with its base case holding today's roughly 27x EV/EBITDA flat for six years; the sector EV/EBITDA median is 16x, and on that multiple the read sits about 44 percent below the price. Earnings-based frames are harsher still, reading the price at three to four times their central estimates, because trailing earnings per share of $0.55 puts the stock near 36 times trailing earnings against a 24x sector median, and normalized five-year operating income reflects the smaller company Stevanato was before the buildout. The honest interpretation is a durability premium: the market is paying now for margins and volumes that the Fishers and Latina plants only begin delivering in 2027, with first-quarter mix (high-value solutions at 47 percent of revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin up 150 basis points to 23.9 percent) as the down payment.

The balance sheet can carry the wait, though without much slack for error. Net debt of about $370 million is a modest fraction of annual earnings, interest is covered around seven times, and the company is not burning cash in the aggregate, but trailing free cash flow of roughly $24 million rounds to zero after the capacity capex, and the share count creeps upward at about 1.9 percent a year. The concrete what-has-to-be-true stack: guidance of 1.260 to 1.290 billion euros of revenue and 331.8 to 346.9 million euros of adjusted EBITDA holds for 2026, the cartridge lines and Fishers hit their early-2027 windows, and the GLP-1 volume that is fully booking today's capacity keeps booking tomorrow's. Each is plausible; the price needs all three.

Catalysts

The second-quarter report, expected in early August on the company's cadence, tests whether the first quarter's pattern extends: revenue up 7 percent (10 percent at constant currency) to 273.6 million euros, high-value solutions up 17 percent to 47 percent of revenue, and adjusted EBITDA margin up 150 basis points to 23.9 percent. Management maintained full-year guidance of 1.260 to 1.290 billion euros in revenue, adjusted EBITDA of 331.8 to 346.9 million euros, and adjusted diluted EPS of 0.59 to 0.63 euros; with the euro-dollar swing in 2026, constant-currency growth and any guidance-band tightening are the reads that matter.

The capacity milestones are the dated events. Fishers, Indiana commercial production is targeted for the end of 2026 or early 2027, and the new RTU 400 cartridge lines in Latina are targeted for early 2027; management has said cartridge capacity is fully booked for 2026 and expects mid-teens GLP-1-related growth this year. Any pull-forward, slippage, or customer prepayment activity around those ramps moves the 2027 earnings picture the multiple depends on.

The demand-side signals to monitor are GLP-1 volume trajectories at the major manufacturers (roughly a fifth of Stevanato revenue rides that class), the cadence of biologics launches requiring ready-to-use containment, and destocking or restocking commentary across pharma customers, which whipsawed the vial business in prior years. On the risk side, progress on oral GLP-1 formulations is the slow-moving structural headline worth tracking, since it caps the long-run injectable volume story the price extrapolates.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• GH (GUARDANT HEALTH, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …development programs by a number of potential competitors, and increasing levels of merger and acquisition activity by both existing and new competitors. 11 We believe key competitive factors affecting our success are the price and performance of our products, evidence of clinical differentiation, support by KOLs,…
• FY2025 10-K: …near future and our operating expenses will increase as we continue to invest in clinical studies and develop new products, expand our sales organization, and increase our marketing efforts to drive market adoption of our tests. As demand for our tests are expected to continue to increase from physicians and…
• PAHC (Phibro Animal Health Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: Latin America and increased domestic demand for swine products. Mineral Nutrition Net sales of $253.2 million for the year ended June 30, 2025 increased $9.6 million, or 4%, primarily due to an increase in demand for copper and trace minerals. 70 Table of Contents Performance Products Net sales of $80.2 million for…
• FY2025 10-K: …below). The product portfolio acquired, which generated $407.6 million in revenue in 2023, is comprised of more than 37 product lines that are sold in approximately 80 countries. For the year ended June 30, 2025, this product portfolio contributed $208.2 million to our overall net sales. Also included in the…
• APLS (APELLIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …including: • the efficacy and safety of the product; • the potential advantages of the product compared to competitive therapies; 50 Table of Contents • the prevalence and severity of any side effects; • the clinical indications for which the product is approved; • whether the product is designated under physician…
• FY2025 10-K: …and services, which could result in reduced demand for our product candidates or additional pricing pressures. Employees and Human Resources As of December 31, 2025, we had 733 full-time employees and six part-time employees. Of these employees, 686 were based in the United States, 53 were based in international…
• HALO (HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …pricing, discounting, marketing and promotion and other business arrangements. These laws may impact, among other things, our current activities with principal investigators and research subjects, as well as sales, marketing and education programs. Many states have similar healthcare fraud and abuse laws, some of…
• FY2025 10-K: …and results of operations. To help patients afford certain of our products, we offer discount, rebate, and co-pay coupon programs. CMS recently has issued a regulation imposing additional obligations on manufacturers in order to continue excluding such programs from government pricing calculations to avoid payment of…
• LEGN (Legend Biotech Corp)
• FY2025 20-F: …as it could create opportunities for competitors to enter the market or dissuade other companies from collaborating with us to develop products and technology, any of which would hurt our competitive position and could impair our ability to successfully commercialize our product candidates in any indication for which…
• FY2025 20-F: …business operations and current and future relationships with healthcare professionals, principal investigators, consultants, customers and third-party payors in the United States and elsewhere may be subject, directly or indirectly, to applicable anti-kickback, fraud and abuse, false claims, physician payment…
• ALKS (Alkermes plc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …which could materially adversely effect our business, financial condition, cash flows and results of operations. 44 Our success largely depends upon our ability to attract, recognize and retain key personnel. Our ability to compete and succeed in the highly competitive biopharmaceutical industry and in the disease…
• FY2025 10-K: …condition, cash flows and results of operations; • our success largely depends upon our ability to attract, recognize and retain key personnel, and the loss of key personnel may materially and adversely impact our business; • patent and other IP protection for our products is key to our business and our competitive…
• ANIP (ANI PHARMACEUTICALS, INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …impact on our results of operations. The nature and extent of future healthcare reforms cannot be predicted. There is significant uncertainty regarding the nature or impact of any drug pricing or broader healthcare reform implemented at the federal or state level and the extent to which such action may be subject to…
• FY2025 10-K: …that entirely offsets the effects of changes in foreign exchange rates. We regularly review our hedging program and assess the need to utilize financial instruments to hedge currency exposures on an ongoing basis. Currency exchange rates did not have a material impact on our revenue, income, assets, liabilities, or…
• HRMY (HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …We may not be able to attract and retain these personnel on acceptable terms, given the competition among numerous pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies for similar personnel. We also experience competition for the hiring of scientific and clinical personnel from universities and research institutions. If we are…
• FY2025 10-K: …diseases segment consists of the Company's commercial product, WAKIX, and its potential product candidates, that focus on patients living with rare neurological diseases who have unmet needs. The Company currently derives all of its revenue from sales of WAKIX, which is used in the treatment of EDS and cataplexy in…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.