Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD): what the price requires
At today's price, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~5.8 years. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/STLD
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | STLD |
| Company | Steel Dynamics, Inc. |
| Sector / Industry | Basic Materials |
| Current price | $233.89/sh |
| Composition | Steel Operations 68% / Metals Recycling Operations 22% / Steel Fabrication Operations 7% / Aluminum Operations 2% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 7.9% |
| Operating margin today | 9.0% |
| Margin compression implied | -1.1pp |
| Must persist for | 5.8y |
| Multiple paid | 22x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 10.5% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~1.7 years.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~19.6%/yr; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: elevated
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.33σ |
| cohort percentile (of 76 peers) | 65 |
| sustained it ~5.8 years at this level | 29% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.01x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.32x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.19x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.13x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $100.10 | 2.34x | yes | FCF base $0.7B, growth 11% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.3%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $237.45 | 0.99x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 11.3x / 16.3x / 21.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $160.92 | 1.45x | yes | P/E 17.23x (blended: static sector reference 14x + trailing (TTM) 25x), scenarios: 12.9x / 17.2x / 20.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 10.48x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $102.06 | 2.29x | yes | BV/sh $64.25, ROE (TTM) 14.7%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $127.15 | 1.84x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $207.22 | 1.13x | yes | Rev $19.0B, growth 11% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.3x / 1.8x / 2.1x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 6x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $301.32 | 0.78x | yes | EPS $9.33, growth 32% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.77 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $178.67 | 1.31x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $3.18B × (1−22%) / WACC 8.3% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $130.74 | 1.79x | yes | BV $64.25 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 14.7% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $116.14 | 2.01x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $9.33 × BVPS $64.25) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $102.26 | 2.29x | yes | EBITDA $2.32B × sector EV/EBITDA 8.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $24.23 | 9.65x | yes | FCF $664.7M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $19.07 | 12.26x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.60B (FCF $0.66B − SBC $0.07B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $301.05 | 0.78x | yes | EPS $9.33 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $24.98 | 9.36x | yes | BV $64.25 × (ROIC 3.2% / WACC 8.3%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $196.24 | 1.19x | yes | Revenue $19.01B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $349.88 | 0.67x | yes | EPS $9.33 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $100.86 | 2.32x | yes | EPS $9.33 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $3.6b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 2.74x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.14x |
| Interest coverage | 22.3x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -6.9% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
- Steel Dynamics runs four connected recycled-metals businesses (steel mills, scrap recycling, fabrication, and a new aluminum flat-rolled mill), and its 10-K states that roughly "70% of our steel and steel fabrication sales are considered value-added", a mix built to hold margin better than commodity tonnage through the cycle.
- The price pays about 22x trailing operating income on earnings that fell from $3.15 billion of operating income in 2023 to $1.48 billion in 2025, so today's $228.41 (July 10, 2026) is a bet that the current rebound persists for roughly five years, a pace only about 31 percent of comparable fast-growers have sustained that long.
- The second-quarter print, guided to $3.51 to $3.55 per diluted share against $2.01 a year earlier, lands later in July along with the aluminum ramp milestones that decide whether the rebound is structural or cyclical.
Bull Case
The market seems to have decided the trough is in, and the recent numbers back it up. Operating income slid from $3.15 billion in 2023 to $1.94 billion in 2024 to $1.48 billion in 2025 as steel prices faded and the aluminum build-out soaked up cost. Then the line turned. First-quarter 2026 earnings came in at $2.78 per diluted share, and management has guided the second quarter to $3.51 to $3.55, up from $2.01 in the prior-year quarter, with steel profitability described as meaningfully higher on strong demand and metal margin expansion, average selling prices rising faster than scrap costs. For a cyclical, the direction of the earnings line matters more than any single level, and the direction is now firmly up.
The aluminum segment is the part of the story that trailing financials still misprice. Through 2025 it was almost pure drag: the 10-K attributes the jump in overhead partly to "commissioning costs associated with the recycled aluminum flat rolled products mill and satellite recycled aluminum slab centers during 2025", with SG&A rising to 4.2% of net sales from 3.8%. But the same filing records real commercial progress: the mill "produced finished products for the industrial and beverage can markets and achieved product certifications across multiple customers" and qualified aluminum hot-rolled coils for automotive applications. As of the June update, two cold mills are operational and a third qualifies in July. A cost center is turning into a fourth operating business, and the spending that depressed 2025 margins is precisely what funds the next leg of earnings.
The structure underneath is what lets the cycle work in shareholders' favor. The company describes its model plainly: "vertically connected businesses support our higher through-cycle steel production and overall profitability", with internal manufacturing contributing to more stable through-cycle earnings and cash flow. Fabrication and recycling feed the mills in both directions, and the value-added tilt keeps pricing stickier than spot steel. Management pairs that with consistent capital return: the share count has fallen about 6.9 percent a year over the past four years, and interest coverage sits at 19 times operating income. The bear will note, fairly, that this is still a steel company. The bull's answer is that it is a steel company whose mix, integration, and buyback cadence compound through the trough rather than merely surviving it.
Bear Case
The variable with the most leverage over this thesis is not demand or execution. It is trade policy. The 50 percent Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are the umbrella under which domestic sheet prices climbed above $1,000 per ton in 2026, and the second-quarter earnings surge rides directly on that pricing. A tariff regime is a political artifact, revisable by administration, court, or negotiation, and it can change far faster than a mill depreciates. At $228.41 the market is paying about 22x trailing operating income for earnings that policy helped inflate, and nothing in the price visibly discounts the scenario where the umbrella folds.
The arithmetic of what the price requires is demanding on its own terms. Today's price implies company-wide operating growth held near the fastest pace the business can self-fund for roughly five years, and of comparable fast-growers, only about 31 percent have sustained that pace so long. Against that requirement stands the demonstrated record of a genuine cyclical: operating income of $3.15 billion in 2023 became $1.48 billion two years later, a 53 percent drawdown with no recession attached. If the current rebound mean-reverts the way the last peak did, the multiple has to compress toward what the asset-value and earnings-power methods support, and both of those families read today's price as roughly double their central estimates.
The input side carries its own risks, in the company's own words: "Volatility and major fluctuations in prices and availability of scrap metal, scrap substitutes and supplies, and our potential inability to pass higher costs on to our customers, may constrain operating levels and reduce profit margins". The same 10-K notes that as additional EAF capacity is built, demand for ferrous scrap rises, which squeezes the very feedstock economics the model depends on. Competitors are not standing still: Cleveland-Cliffs alone operates "seven blast furnaces and four EAFs with the configured capability of producing approximately 20.0 million net tons", and Commercial Metals expects melt-shop production at a new micro mill during 2026. And the demand backdrop is cyclical too; the filing concedes that "periods of slower than anticipated economic growth could reduce customer confidence and adversely affect demand for our products". A construction-heavy order book, tariff-supported pricing, and a multiple that assumes five more years of growth is a stack of assumptions, each individually reasonable, that all have to hold at once.
Valuation
At $228.41 (July 10, 2026), the market is paying about 22x company-wide operating income, which works out to operating growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly five years. The near-term pace is within what the business has recently delivered; the stretch is in how long it must persist. Of comparable fast-growers, only about 31 percent sustained that pace for the roughly five-and-a-half-year horizon the price embeds. That is the bet: not that 2026 is a good year (the guidance already says it is) but that the good years keep coming.
The methods we use to triangulate split into two camps. The peer-multiple and forward-growth lenses land near the price: the stock trades at about 24x trailing GAAP earnings against a sector median near 14x, and the cash-flow method that reaches the price does so by holding today's roughly 16x EV/EBITDA flat for five years, against a sector median near 8x. The asset-value and earnings-power lenses read the price as roughly double their central estimates. Part of that gap is mechanical and worth understanding: trailing free cash flow of about $665 million is compressed by the aluminum build-out, the year the 10-K says carried "commissioning costs associated with the recycled aluminum flat rolled products mill and satellite recycled aluminum slab centers", so any lens that capitalizes trailing cash flow reads the price harshly. Normalized earnings power on a five-year average of operating income closes much of that distance but still sits well below the price. The pattern is a durability premium: the price is defensible if the rebound holds and the multiple does not compress, and expensive against everything the business has already banked.
The balance sheet can carry the bet. Net debt of $3.6 billion runs about 2.1x trailing operating income, interest coverage is 19x, the company is cash-generative rather than burning, and the share count has declined about 6.9 percent a year over four years. Steel Operations remains the weight-bearing wall of the composition, with recycling second and fabrication and aluminum the smaller pieces, and the filing notes that roughly "70% of our steel and steel fabrication sales are considered value-added", which is the company's structural argument for why its through-cycle margins deserve more credit than commodity steel comparisons allow. The decisive question the price leaves open is duration: whether a tariff-supported pricing regime and a first-of-its-kind aluminum ramp can hold operating income on its current path for five more years.
Catalysts
The nearest event is the second-quarter report later in July. Management has already framed it: guidance of $3.51 to $3.55 per diluted share, up from $2.78 in the first quarter and $2.01 in the prior-year quarter, with steel profitability meaningfully higher on metal margin expansion as realized prices rose more than scrap costs. The guidance absorbs a $16 million asset write-down from the decision to relocate the planned second satellite aluminum slab center from Arizona to Columbus, Mississippi, after disputes with Arizona state officials put the site's construction and operation at risk. The print itself is largely de-risked; the call commentary on second-half order books and fabrication backlog is where new information lives.
The aluminum ramp supplies the next set of dated milestones. Two cold mills are operational, a third is scheduled to qualify in July, and the coil coating and finishing line is shipping product for customer qualification. Each qualification converts construction spend into revenue capacity, and the pace of that conversion is the swing factor in whether aluminum becomes a meaningful earnings contributor in 2027.
The policy backdrop remains the quiet catalyst in both directions: the 50 percent Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports underpin domestic pricing, and any softening would transmit to realized prices quickly. Street positioning is constructive but not euphoric, with a moderate-buy consensus and average price targets ranging from the mid-$230s to the low-$270s across polled analysts.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Steel Operations (reported)
- NUE (NUCOR CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CMC (COMMERCIAL METALS COMPANY)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CLF (CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WS (WORTHINGTON STEEL, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- MLI (MUELLER INDUSTRIES INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WOR (WORTHINGTON ENTERPRISES, INC)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Metals Recycling Operations (reported)
- NUE (NUCOR CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CMC (COMMERCIAL METALS COMPANY)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CLF (CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Steel Fabrication Operations (reported)
- NUE (NUCOR CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CMC (COMMERCIAL METALS COMPANY)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WS (WORTHINGTON STEEL, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Aluminum Operations (reported)
- AA (Alcoa Corp)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- CENX (Century Aluminum Company)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- KALU (KAISER ALUMINUM CORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
company Q2 2026 guidance release, June 2026 · company Q2 2026 guidance release · trade press coverage of Section 232 tariffs, 2026 · company 8-K, June 2026 · trade press coverage, 2026 · MarketBeat and StockAnalysis consensus data, July 2026