SOUTHSTATE BANK CORP (SSB): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $109.17, SOUTHSTATE BANK CORP (SSB) is priced for 11.8% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SSB

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.7% cost of equity; ROE searched up to the 11.7% ROE ceiling.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~10.1%; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 5.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=4)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

The issuer is a funded financial business. Debt, interest, and cash flows are operating inputs, so industrial EV, net-debt, WACC, and free-cash-flow lenses do not apply; value the common-equity claim with book, earnings, capital, and payout economics.

No unit-level total common-equity value is stated. Each financial unit requires supported standalone common equity, normalized earnings, capital adequacy, and payout capacity. Consolidated debt, interest, and cash are operating balances, not an enterprise-to-equity bridge; company-level book, earnings, capital, and payout lenses remain the coherent cross-checks.

Solvency

Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).

Bullet Takeaways

• SouthState is a Southeast-anchored regional bank that just expanded into Texas, Colorado and Tennessee through the Independent Financial acquisition, growing tangible book value per share about 14% year over year to $56.90.
• The biggest risk is the price: near 1.75 times tangible book for a bank earning roughly 10% on equity against a roughly 9% cost of equity, a thin excess-return spread with little room for credit or integration to disappoint.
• Watch second-quarter loan and deposit trends in the new Texas and Colorado markets, credit migration in the acquired book (acquired nonperforming loans were "$137.1 million, or 0.96% of total acquired loans"), and the pace of buybacks against the roughly 58.5% payout.

Bull Case

Start with the balance sheet, because for a bank it is the business. SouthState carries tangible book value of about $56.90 per share, up roughly 14% year over year, and it earns a return on average common equity near 10% on assets that yield a return of about 1.37%. Those are the two numbers a bank investor checks first, and both point the same direction: this is a franchise compounding its own capital rather than leaning on leverage to manufacture a return. Capital return is disciplined too, with roughly 58.5% of the latest year's earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks, leaving the rest to fund growth.

The growth engine is the recently completed acquisition of Independent Financial, which pushed SouthState into Texas, Colorado and Tennessee. The 10-K describes the mechanical benefit plainly: the company's non-acquired loan book grew as "renewals of matured acquired loans that are moved to our non-acquired loan portfolio" rolled in, alongside organic origination. In the first quarter loans grew about 7% annualized and deposits about 5% annualized, so the enlarged franchise is putting capital to work rather than sitting on it.

The deposit franchise is the quiet asset. Net interest income of about $562 million in the quarter rests on a low-cost funding base spread across the Southeast and now the fast-growing Texas and Mountain markets. Credit is being provisioned conservatively; the bank's fair-value framework assumes a through-cycle loss rate near 1.2%, and the 10-K sets out a disciplined "General Lending Policy to maintain the quality of our loan portfolio" that governs where the growth comes from. A bank that can hold credit steady while it digests a large acquisition and still grow tangible book at a double-digit pace is doing the hard part of banking well.

Bear Case

The structural truth a buyer should sit with is the price paid for the book. At about $99.66 (July 10, 2026), SouthState trades near 1.75 times its tangible book value of $56.90, and the return it earns on that book, roughly 10%, sits only modestly above the roughly 9% return an equity investor requires. A bank creates value only in the gap between what it earns on equity and what equity costs, and here that gap is thin. Pay 1.75 times tangible book for a 10% return-on-equity bank and you are betting the return rises, the growth compounds for a long time, or both. The excess-return methods land near today's price precisely because that spread is slim; there is little margin for the return to slip.

Integration is the near-term risk. The Independent Financial deal was an all-stock transaction that expanded the share count meaningfully, growing shares outstanding at about 8% a year over the past four years, so per-share progress depends on the acquired book performing as underwritten. The 10-K flags the ordinary but real credit tail: acquired nonperforming loans of "$137.1 million, or 0.96% of total acquired loans, an increase" over the prior period. Texas and Colorado commercial real estate are new geographies for this management team, and a bank's worst losses tend to come from loans made in unfamiliar markets during good times.

The capital structure carries the usual bank constraint the bull case has to respect. The 10-K is explicit that if subsidiaries cannot "make payments to us while maintaining adequate capital levels, we will be unable to pay dividends on our common stock", and holders of junior subordinated debentures sit ahead of common. None of this is unusual, but at 1.75 times tangible book the equity is priced for continued excess returns, and a bank priced for excess returns has more to lose from a credit cycle, a margin squeeze, or an integration stumble than one priced at book.

Valuation

SouthState prices as a growth bank whose multiple already credits the franchise. On tangible book value of $56.33 per share, the justified-multiple approach that scales book by the ratio of return-on-equity to cost-of-equity supports about $66 (a 1.18 times multiple on a 10.4% return against a 9.3% cost), and the price sits about 1.5 times that. Read a different way, on a sector earnings multiple of roughly 10 times the methods reach about $113, above the price, and the excess-return methods land near $102 to $108, close to today's $99.66. So the disagreement is narrow and specific: on assets and earnings power the price looks fair to slightly cheap, while on the strict justified-book lens it looks full. This is a value-and-asset-supported name, not a growth bet stretched beyond its fundamentals.

The one family that reads expensive is forward growth, where a discounted future-value approach lands near $74. That gap is the market asking whether the acquired Texas and Colorado franchises can grow into the price rather than simply hold it. Trailing earnings power is about $9.28 per share, and at $99.66 that is roughly 10.7 times earnings, ordinary for a profitable regional bank and undemanding if loan growth continues at the recent 7% annualized pace.

Solvency for a bank is read on capital and payout, not corporate leverage. Deposits fund the balance sheet, so net-debt and coverage math does not apply; what matters is that SouthState returns about 58.5% of earnings while retaining enough to support growth, and that the 10-K's capital framework counts "subordinated debt, certain trust preferred securities, other preferred stock and certain hybrid capital instruments" toward regulatory capital. The bet the price makes is that a low-cost deposit base plus a newly national footprint keeps the return on equity above the cost of equity long enough to justify a premium to tangible book.

Catalysts

The most recent print, first-quarter 2026 reported April 23, set the near-term tone: diluted EPS of $2.28 and net income of $225.8 million, with loans up about 7% annualized and deposits up about 5% annualized. Return on average assets was 1.37% and return on average common equity 10.1%, while net interest income reached about $562 million and noninterest income about $100 million. The second-quarter report, due in late July, is the next read on whether the enlarged franchise keeps growing loans without loosening credit.

The structural story is the Independent Financial integration. SouthState's March 2026 Corporate Stewardship Report highlighted the completed merger and the resulting expansion into Texas, Colorado and Tennessee, and the key operational milestone ahead is systems and branch integration converting the acquired deposit and loan base to organic growth. Sell-side sentiment is constructive, with recent commentary framing the shares as having proven the acquisition case. Watch credit metrics in the acquired portfolio and the trajectory of the net interest margin as the biggest swing factors into the back half of the year.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

General Banking Unit (reported)

• ONB (OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/)
• FY2025 10-K: …to refer to this page as you read this report. ACH: Automated Clearing House AOCI: accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) AQR: asset quality rating ASC: Accounting Standards Codification ASU: Accounting Standards Update ATM: automated teller machine BBCC: business banking credit center (small business) Bremer:…
• FY2025 10-K: Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities 34 Item 6. [Reserved] 35 Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations 36 Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk 68 Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data 69 Item 9. Changes in…
• INDB (Independent Bank Corp.)
• FY2025 10-K: …could lead to interruptions or disruptions of the Company's operating systems, including systems that are customer facing, and adversely impact the Company's business; • risks related to the development and use of AI by the Company, its third-party vendors, clients and counterparties; • any unexpected material…
• FY2025 10-K: …to the Company's registered investment advisor. The administration of trust and fiduciary accounts is monitored by the Trust Committee of the Bank's Board of Directors. The Trust Committee has delegated administrative responsibilities to three committees, one for investments, one for administration, and one for…
• NBTB (NBT BANCORP INC)
• FY2025 10-K: …checking accounts, MMDA and CD accounts. The Bank offers various types of each deposit account to accommodate the needs of its customers with varying rates, terms and features. Loan products offered by the Bank include indirect and direct consumer loans, home equity loans, mortgages, business banking loans and…
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000790359 nbtb:RetirementPlanAdministrationSegmentMember us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000790359 nbtb:RetirementPlanAdministrationSegmentMember us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000790359…
• GBCI (GLACIER BANCORP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Statements of Financial Condition 63 Consolidated Statements of Operations 64 Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss) 65 Consolidated Statements of Changes in Stockholders' Equity 66 Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows 67 Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements 69 Item 9 Changes in and…
• FY2025 10-K: StatutoryTrustIIMember gbci:JuniorSubordinatedDebentureOwedtoUnconsolidatedSubsidiaryTrustMember 2025-12-31 0000868671 gbci:FNBUTStatutoryTrustIIMember gbci:JuniorSubordinatedDebentureOwedtoUnconsolidatedSubsidiaryTrustMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000868671 gbci:BankOfSanJuansBancorporationTrustIMember…
• BUSE (First Busey Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …buse:lease xbrli:pure buse:segment buse:state buse:security buse:note buse:awardHolders buse:lawsuit buse:agreement buse:bankingCenter 0000314489 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000314489 buse:CommonStock0.001ParValueMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000314489…
• FY2025 10-K: …paid in capital on preferred stock (215,197) - Common equity [b] 2,253,785 1,383,269 Goodwill and other intangible assets, net (480,729) (365,975) Tangible common equity (Non-GAAP) 1 [c] $ 1,773,056 $ 1,017,294 Tangible common equity to tangible assets (Non-GAAP) 1 [c÷a] 10.06 % 8.71 % Ending number of common shares…
• CNOB (CONNECTONE BANCORP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …aggregate unutilized borrowing capacity of $223.3 million as of December 31, 2025. -66- Table of Contents The Bank is a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York and, based on available qualified collateral as of December 31, 2025, had the ability to borrow $3.9 billion. The Bank also has a credit facility…
• FY2025 10-K: …consists of the operation of its wholly-owned subsidiary, ConnectOne Bank (the "Bank" and, collectively with the Parent Corporation and the Parent Corporation's subsidiaries, the "Company") and making certain limited investments. The Bank's direct and indirect subsidiaries include Union Investment Co. (a New Jersey…
• UBSI (UNITED BANKSHARES INC/WV)
• FY2025 10-K: …Standards Codification, United has determined that substantially all of its letters of credit are renewed on an annual basis and the fees associated with these letters of credit are immaterial. Mortgage Banking Related to its mortgage banking activities, United provides for its estimated exposure to repurchase loans…
• FY2025 10-K: …savings, time and money market accounts; the making and servicing of personal, credit card, commercial, and floor plan loans; and the making of construction and real estate loans as well as the origination and sale of residential mortgages in the secondary market. Also offered are trust and brokerage services, safe…
• SBCF (Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida)
• FY2025 10-K: …April 5, 2005. Exhibit 4.6 Indenture Dated as of December 16, 2005, between the Company and U.S. Bank National Association, as Trustee (including the form of the Junior Subordinated Debt Security, which appears as Exhibit A to the Indenture), incorporated herein by reference from Exhibit 10.1 to the Company's Form…
• FY2025 10-K: .30 Total Loans, net 11,035,340 658,728 5.97 10,096,189 598,411 5.93 9,889,070 581,825 5.88 Total Earning Assets 15,531,352 839,205 5.40 % 13,353,360 726,633 5.44 % 12,973,453 689,778 5.32 % ACL (149,478) (144,280) (150,982) Cash and due from banks 157,955 167,367 184,035 Bank premises and equipment, net 123,456…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.