TD SYNNEX CORPORATION (SNX): what the price requires
At today's price, TD SYNNEX CORPORATION (SNX) is priced for +3.9% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SNX
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | SNX |
| Company | TD SYNNEX CORPORATION |
| Sector / Industry | Industrials |
| Current price | $251.08/sh |
| Composition | Americas 58% / Europe 35% / APJ 7% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 0.4% |
| Operating margin today | 2.4% |
| Margin compression implied | -2.0pp |
| Implied growth | 3.9% |
| Multiple paid | 16x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 11, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.4% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.4pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.88σ |
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 26 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.72x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.52x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.60x | 5 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.89x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $357.33 | 0.70x | yes | FCF base $1.3B, growth 10% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.1%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $280.61 | 0.89x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 9.6x / 11.6x / 13.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $252.57 | 0.99x | yes | P/E 18x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 14.9x / 18.0x / 21.1x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 12x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $133.09 | 1.89x | yes | BV/sh $109.54, ROE (TTM) 11.2%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $146.12 | 1.72x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $196.78 | 1.28x | yes | Rev $65.1B, growth 10% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 0.3x / 0.3x / 0.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $420.35 | 0.60x | yes | EPS $12.01, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.58 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $112.33 | 2.24x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $1.15B × (1−23%) / WACC 9.1% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $148.66 | 1.69x | yes | BV $109.54 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 11.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 7.3%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $172.05 | 1.46x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $12.01 × BVPS $109.54) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $260.51 | 0.96x | yes | EBITDA $1.70B × sector EV/EBITDA 12.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $173.94 | 1.44x | yes | FCF $1249.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $164.74 | 1.52x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $1.18B (FCF $1.25B − SBC $0.07B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $387.52 | 0.65x | yes | EPS $12.01 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $54.76 | 4.59x | yes | BV $109.54 × (ROIC 4.5% / WACC 9.1%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $2031.03 | 0.12x | yes | Revenue $65.14B × sector P/S 2.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $450.38 | 0.56x | yes | EPS $12.01 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $129.84 | 1.93x | yes | EPS $12.01 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $3.1b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 2.64x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.04x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -4.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
- TD SYNNEX's quiet transformation is Hyve: the hyperscale infrastructure unit grew 117 percent in the fiscal second quarter with program wins across all five U.S. hyperscalers, stacked on a distribution core carrying "more than 200,000 technology products" from about 2,500 OEMs (accession 0001628280-26-003598).
- The defining risk is concentration in the growth engine: one customer has accounted for 11 to 12 percent of total revenue three years running (accession 0001628280-26-003598), and a hyperscaler program pause would hit exactly the segment the market is re-rating.
- Watch the fiscal third-quarter report in late September 2026 against guidance of roughly $18.6 billion revenue, $27.7 billion gross billings, and non-GAAP EPS near $4.50, plus the timing of the additional hyperscaler ramps promised for late fiscal 2026.
Bull Case
One number flips the whole framing of this company: 117 percent. That is the year-over-year growth Hyve Solutions, TD SYNNEX's hyperscale infrastructure arm, posted in the fiscal second quarter, and it is the number that turns a staid IT distributor into an AI infrastructure supplier with a distribution business attached. The quarter itself was a rout of expectations: revenue of $19.6 billion against a consensus near $16.8 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $4.85 versus $4.11 expected, and non-GAAP gross billings up 33 percent year over year. CEO Patrick Zammit cited program wins across all five U.S.-based hyperscalers, with additional ramps expected in late fiscal 2026 or early fiscal 2027, meaning the backlog behind the 117 percent is still building.
The distribution core is the ballast that funds the growth story. The 10-K describes a catalog of "more than 200,000 technology products (as measured by active SKU's) from approximately 2,500 OEMs" (accession 0001628280-26-003598), a scale position in a two-player North American market that generates the cash and vendor relationships Hyve draws on. As hardware and software converge into what the filing calls hybrid consumption models with "greater integration of products, services and solutions" (accession 0001628280-26-003598), the distributor role shifts from box-mover to integrator, which carries better economics than the legacy stereotype.
Management's capital allocation quietly turbocharges the per-share math: the share count has shrunk about 4.4 percent a year over the last four years, an aggressive and sustained buyback for a company trading at these multiples. And the multiples are modest: the priced-in assumption at $251.89 works out to roughly 3.9 percent annual operating growth for five years, a hurdle the company just cleared by an order of magnitude in a single quarter. Peer multiples read the stock as roughly 40 percent cheap, and the growth methods sit above the price as well. The bull case is unusually simple: a within-range price, a compounding buyback, and an AI infrastructure business growing triple digits that the conglomerate-style label still hides.
Bear Case
Split the valuation models into camps and listen to the argument. The relative-multiple and growth-based methods say TD SYNNEX is cheap to fairly priced; the earnings-power and asset-anchored methods say it is 50 to 70 percent above what its demonstrated profits and balance sheet support. The conservative camp's logic deserves the benefit of the doubt here, because it is reading the economics of distribution: operating income of $1.6 billion on revenue measured in the tens of billions is a business of pennies per dollar, and the models that capitalize those pennies rather than extrapolate the growth land far below $251.89. The optimistic camp is effectively paying forward for Hyve's 117 percent growth to persist, and hyperscale infrastructure is the most order-driven, lumpy, concentration-heavy revenue in technology.
The concentration is disclosed with unusual clarity: "One customer accounted for 11%, 12% and 11% of our total revenue in fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023", in a risk factor that pairs customer concentration with "intense competition" (accession 0001628280-26-003598). A single hyperscaler pausing a program, dual-sourcing to an ODM, or insourcing its rack integration would show up immediately in the segment that carries the whole re-rating story. The AI buildout is real, but TD SYNNEX sits in its lowest-margin tier, assembling and integrating hardware where pricing power belongs to the chip and the customer, not the middleman.
The balance sheet limits the room for error. Net debt of $3.07 billion runs about 1.9 times operating income with just $1.56 billion of liquid assets against $4.63 billion of gross debt, in a working-capital-intensive model where growth consumes cash into inventory and receivables before it returns it. The buyback that shrinks the share count 4.4 percent a year competes for the same cash. Nothing here is stressed today, and the fiscal third-quarter guide of roughly $18.6 billion in revenue with about $4.50 of non-GAAP EPS suggests continuation. But the bear's frame is the honest one for a distributor: this is a thin-margin, high-velocity business whose earnings-power value sits far below the price, temporarily wearing an AI growth multiple. When Hyve's comparisons get hard in fiscal 2027, the market will re-decide which camp of models it believes.
Valuation
The price asks very little, which is itself the finding. At $251.89 (July 10, 2026), the market pays about 16 times trailing operating income of roughly $1.6 billion (the EDGAR and record bases agree within 6 percent here), which inverts at an 8.4 percent cost of capital to implied operating growth of about 3.9 percent a year for five years. That is within the range of what TD SYNNEX has recently delivered, and the second quarter blew past it: revenue of $19.6 billion with non-GAAP gross billings up 33 percent and Hyve up 117 percent. Against a low single-digit growth requirement, the current AI infrastructure ramp is running with enormous headroom.
The methods split along business-quality lines. Peer multiples read the price as about 40 percent below what the sector comparison supports, and the growth-based cash-flow methods sit modestly above the quote; the earnings-power and asset-value reads land 50 to 70 percent below it, because distribution's thin margins capitalize poorly. The pattern is a value-supported name with a growth kicker rather than a premium bet: the conservative lenses anchor the downside argument, the cheap relative read and the buyback carry the upside one. The filing-sourced inputs on the business's substance: a catalog spanning "more than 200,000 technology products" from "approximately 2,500 OEMs" (accession 0001628280-26-003598), and a disclosed customer concentration where one customer has run 11 to 12 percent of revenue for three straight fiscal years (accession 0001628280-26-003598), which is the single input most capable of bending the growth line.
Solvency is manageable but not lavish: net debt of $3.07 billion at roughly 1.9 times pre-tax operating income, liquid assets of $1.56 billion, no cash burn, and a share count declining 4.4 percent a year, the buyback being the clearest statement of management's own read on the price. The near-term test is the fiscal third quarter, guided to about $18.6 billion of revenue and roughly $27.7 billion of gross billings. What the buyer underwrites at 16 times is modest: that the distribution core holds and Hyve's hyperscaler programs keep at least some of their momentum.
Catalysts
The June 25, 2026 fiscal second-quarter report was the thesis-changing print: revenue of $19.6 billion crushed consensus near $16.8 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $4.85 beat the $4.11 estimate, non-GAAP gross billings rose 33 percent year over year, and Hyve Solutions grew 117 percent on AI infrastructure demand. CEO Patrick Zammit reported program wins across all five U.S.-based hyperscalers and guided expectations toward additional program ramps in late fiscal 2026 or early fiscal 2027, which extends the visibility of the AI buildout revenue beyond the current quarter.
Guidance frames the next print: for the fiscal third quarter the company expects revenue of about $18.6 billion plus or minus $400 million, gross billings of about $27.7 billion plus or minus $500 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of about $4.50 plus or minus 25 cents. The sequential step-down from the second quarter's blowout embeds hyperscaler order timing, so the report, expected in late September 2026, is largely a test of whether Hyve's program cadence holds.
The slower catalysts are structural: distribution demand tied to PC and infrastructure refresh cycles across the Americas, Europe and APJ segments, the pace at which the promised hyperscaler ramps convert to billings, and continued share repurchases that have shrunk the count about 4.4 percent a year. Concentration cuts both ways on this calendar: any disclosed expansion or loss of the customer that has run 11 to 12 percent of revenue (accession 0001628280-26-003598) would be the single most consequential update in either direction.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Core business (reported)
- INGM (Ingram Micro Holding Corp)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AVT (AVNET, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ARW (ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WCC (WESCO International, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- FERG (Ferguson Enterprises Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GWW (W.W. GRAINGER, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- RS (RELIANCE, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GPC (GENUINE PARTS CO)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
fiscal Q2 2026 results, June 25, 2026 · fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release and call, June 2026 · fiscal Q2 2026 results presentation, June 25, 2026 · fiscal Q2 2026 earnings coverage, Investing.com, June 2026 · fiscal Q2 2026 earnings call, June 2026 · fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release, June 2026 · fiscal Q2 2026 press release and Investing.com coverage, June 2026