TD SYNNEX CORPORATION (SNX): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $253.97, TD SYNNEX CORPORATION (SNX) is priced for -1.0% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SNX

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 11: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 8.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• TD SYNNEX's quiet transformation is Hyve: the hyperscale infrastructure unit grew 117 percent in the fiscal second quarter with program wins across all five U.S. hyperscalers, stacked on a distribution core carrying "more than 200,000 technology products" from about 2,500 OEMs (accession 0001628280-26-003598).
• The defining risk is concentration in the growth engine: one customer has accounted for 11 to 12 percent of total revenue three years running (accession 0001628280-26-003598), and a hyperscaler program pause would hit exactly the segment the market is re-rating.
• Watch the fiscal third-quarter report in late September 2026 against guidance of roughly $18.6 billion revenue, $27.7 billion gross billings, and non-GAAP EPS near $4.50, plus the timing of the additional hyperscaler ramps promised for late fiscal 2026.

Bull Case

One number flips the whole framing of this company: 117 percent. That is the year-over-year growth Hyve Solutions, TD SYNNEX's hyperscale infrastructure arm, posted in the fiscal second quarter, and it is the number that turns a staid IT distributor into an AI infrastructure supplier with a distribution business attached. The quarter itself was a rout of expectations: revenue of $19.6 billion against a consensus near $16.8 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $4.85 versus $4.11 expected, and non-GAAP gross billings up 33 percent year over year. CEO Patrick Zammit cited program wins across all five U.S.-based hyperscalers, with additional ramps expected in late fiscal 2026 or early fiscal 2027, meaning the backlog behind the 117 percent is still building.

The distribution core is the ballast that funds the growth story. The 10-K describes a catalog of "more than 200,000 technology products (as measured by active SKU's) from approximately 2,500 OEMs" (accession 0001628280-26-003598), a scale position in a two-player North American market that generates the cash and vendor relationships Hyve draws on. As hardware and software converge into what the filing calls hybrid consumption models with "greater integration of products, services and solutions" (accession 0001628280-26-003598), the distributor role shifts from box-mover to integrator, which carries better economics than the legacy stereotype.

Management's capital allocation quietly turbocharges the per-share math: the share count has shrunk about 4.4 percent a year over the last four years, an aggressive and sustained buyback for a company trading at these multiples. And the multiples are modest: the priced-in assumption at $251.89 works out to roughly 3.9 percent annual operating growth for five years, a hurdle the company just cleared by an order of magnitude in a single quarter. Peer multiples read the stock as roughly 40 percent cheap, and the growth methods sit above the price as well. The bull case is unusually simple: a within-range price, a compounding buyback, and an AI infrastructure business growing triple digits that the conglomerate-style label still hides.

Bear Case

Split the valuation models into camps and listen to the argument. The relative-multiple and growth-based methods say TD SYNNEX is cheap to fairly priced; the earnings-power and asset-anchored methods say it is 50 to 70 percent above what its demonstrated profits and balance sheet support. The conservative camp's logic deserves the benefit of the doubt here, because it is reading the economics of distribution: operating income of $1.6 billion on revenue measured in the tens of billions is a business of pennies per dollar, and the models that capitalize those pennies rather than extrapolate the growth land far below $251.89. The optimistic camp is effectively paying forward for Hyve's 117 percent growth to persist, and hyperscale infrastructure is the most order-driven, lumpy, concentration-heavy revenue in technology.

The concentration is disclosed with unusual clarity: "One customer accounted for 11%, 12% and 11% of our total revenue in fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023", in a risk factor that pairs customer concentration with "intense competition" (accession 0001628280-26-003598). A single hyperscaler pausing a program, dual-sourcing to an ODM, or insourcing its rack integration would show up immediately in the segment that carries the whole re-rating story. The AI buildout is real, but TD SYNNEX sits in its lowest-margin tier, assembling and integrating hardware where pricing power belongs to the chip and the customer, not the middleman.

The balance sheet limits the room for error. Net debt of $3.07 billion runs about 1.9 times operating income with just $1.56 billion of liquid assets against $4.63 billion of gross debt, in a working-capital-intensive model where growth consumes cash into inventory and receivables before it returns it. The buyback that shrinks the share count 4.4 percent a year competes for the same cash. Nothing here is stressed today, and the fiscal third-quarter guide of roughly $18.6 billion in revenue with about $4.50 of non-GAAP EPS suggests continuation. But the bear's frame is the honest one for a distributor: this is a thin-margin, high-velocity business whose earnings-power value sits far below the price, temporarily wearing an AI growth multiple. When Hyve's comparisons get hard in fiscal 2027, the market will re-decide which camp of models it believes.

Valuation

The price asks very little, which is itself the finding. At $251.89 (July 10, 2026), the market pays about 16 times trailing operating income of roughly $1.6 billion (the EDGAR and record bases agree within 6 percent here), which inverts at an 8.4 percent cost of capital to implied operating growth of about 3.9 percent a year for five years. That is within the range of what TD SYNNEX has recently delivered, and the second quarter blew past it: revenue of $19.6 billion with non-GAAP gross billings up 33 percent and Hyve up 117 percent. Against a low single-digit growth requirement, the current AI infrastructure ramp is running with enormous headroom.

The methods split along business-quality lines. Peer multiples read the price as about 40 percent below what the sector comparison supports, and the growth-based cash-flow methods sit modestly above the quote; the earnings-power and asset-value reads land 50 to 70 percent below it, because distribution's thin margins capitalize poorly. The pattern is a value-supported name with a growth kicker rather than a premium bet: the conservative lenses anchor the downside argument, the cheap relative read and the buyback carry the upside one. The filing-sourced inputs on the business's substance: a catalog spanning "more than 200,000 technology products" from "approximately 2,500 OEMs" (accession 0001628280-26-003598), and a disclosed customer concentration where one customer has run 11 to 12 percent of revenue for three straight fiscal years (accession 0001628280-26-003598), which is the single input most capable of bending the growth line.

Solvency is manageable but not lavish: net debt of $3.07 billion at roughly 1.9 times pre-tax operating income, liquid assets of $1.56 billion, no cash burn, and a share count declining 4.4 percent a year, the buyback being the clearest statement of management's own read on the price. The near-term test is the fiscal third quarter, guided to about $18.6 billion of revenue and roughly $27.7 billion of gross billings. What the buyer underwrites at 16 times is modest: that the distribution core holds and Hyve's hyperscaler programs keep at least some of their momentum.

Catalysts

The June 25, 2026 fiscal second-quarter report was the thesis-changing print: revenue of $19.6 billion crushed consensus near $16.8 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $4.85 beat the $4.11 estimate, non-GAAP gross billings rose 33 percent year over year, and Hyve Solutions grew 117 percent on AI infrastructure demand. CEO Patrick Zammit reported program wins across all five U.S.-based hyperscalers and guided expectations toward additional program ramps in late fiscal 2026 or early fiscal 2027, which extends the visibility of the AI buildout revenue beyond the current quarter.

Guidance frames the next print: for the fiscal third quarter the company expects revenue of about $18.6 billion plus or minus $400 million, gross billings of about $27.7 billion plus or minus $500 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of about $4.50 plus or minus 25 cents. The sequential step-down from the second quarter's blowout embeds hyperscaler order timing, so the report, expected in late September 2026, is largely a test of whether Hyve's program cadence holds.

The slower catalysts are structural: distribution demand tied to PC and infrastructure refresh cycles across the Americas, Europe and APJ segments, the pace at which the promised hyperscaler ramps convert to billings, and continued share repurchases that have shrunk the count about 4.4 percent a year. Concentration cuts both ways on this calendar: any disclosed expansion or loss of the customer that has run 11 to 12 percent of revenue (accession 0001628280-26-003598) would be the single most consequential update in either direction.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Core business (reported)

• INGM (Ingram Micro Holding Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …sales operations, field sales and marketing personnel. As of December 27, 2025, we had approximately 9,800 associates in our sales and marketing organizations spanning all global regions. International Operations Approximately 66%, 66% and 64% of our consolidated net sales for Fiscal Year 2025, Fiscal Year 2024 and…
• FY2025 10-K: …to pass through to our customers the cost of these changes, as well as our failure to develop systems to manage ongoing vendor programs, could cause us to record inventory write-downs or other losses and could have a negative impact on our gross margins. We receive purchase discounts and rebates from vendors based on…
• AVT (AVNET, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …customer receivables, which may result in provisions to create reserves, write-offs, reduced access to liquidity, higher financing costs, and increased pressure on cash flows. An increase in or prolonged period of inflation could affect the Company's profitability and cash flows, due to higher wages, higher operating…
• FY2025 10-K: …leading suppliers. In addition, shifts in suppliers' strategies, or performance and delivery issues, may negatively affect the Company's financial results. These conditions make it more difficult to manage the Company's business and predict future performance. The competitive landscape has also experienced…
• ARW (ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …national electronic components and enterprise computing solutions distributors, as well as numerous other smaller, specialized competitors who generally focus on narrower market sectors, products, or industries. Such robust competition broadly, and within each region and market sector, creates pricing and margin…
• FY2025 10-K: …environment, both in the United States and internationally. The company competes with other large multinational and national electronic components and enterprise computing solutions distributors, as well as numerous other smaller, specialized competitors who generally focus on narrower markets, products, or…
• WCC (WESCO International, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …condition could be adversely affected. We may consider outsourcing additional functions in the future, further heightening these risks. An increase in competition could decrease sales, profit margins, and earnings. We operate in a highly competitive industry and compete directly with global, national, regional and…
• FY2025 10-K: …We may be unable to pass through incremental costs to customers in a timely manner or at all without adversely affecting our price competitiveness or margins. If we are unable to adjust pricing, sourcing or inventory strategies effectively, or if customers reduce or defer purchases (including due to demand…
• FERG (Ferguson Enterprises Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …network across North America, including three import centers, 11 regional distribution centers and 1,746 branch locations as of July 31, 2025. Our network also includes six MDCs which provide greater access to key strategic markets and allows us to bring our products closer to our customers. These MDCs include…
• FY2025 10-K: …changes in demand may heighten the risks described in the risk factor titled "We may not rapidly identify or effectively respond to direct and/or end customers' wants, expectations or trends, which could adversely affect our relationship with customers, our reputation, the demand for our products and our market…
• GWW (W.W. GRAINGER, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …In the Endless Assortment segment, Grainger offers an expansive product assortment that contains millions of products, including those outside of traditional industrial MRO categories. Zoro offers approximately 13 million products and MonotaRO provides access to approximately 29 million products, primarily through…
• FY2025 10-K: …and market-specific factors. The Company's revenue is primarily comprised of MRO product sales and related activities. The Company's presentation of revenue by reportable segment and customer industry most reasonably depicts how the nature, amount, timing and uncertainty of the Company's revenue and cash flows are…
• RS (RELIANCE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …profit margin are important operating and financial measures as their fluctuations can have a significant impact on our earnings. Gross profit and gross profit margin, as presented, are not necessarily comparable with similarly titled measures for other companies. ​ Overview ​ Net sales were $14.29 billion in 2025,…
• FY2025 10-K: …of a reduced number of shipping days, resulting from holidays observed by the Company as well as vacation and extended holiday closures at some of our customers. The number of shipping days in each quarter has an impact on our quarterly sales and profitability. We cannot predict whether period-to-period fluctuations…
• GPC (GENUINE PARTS CO)
• FY2025 10-K: …by mutual consent. COMPETITION Our Global Automotive and Industrial businesses operate in highly competitive markets, with a wide range of national, regional and local businesses. In our Automotive segments, competition comes from specialty parts chains, automobile manufacturers (including those selling parts for…
• FY2025 10-K: …we may be forced to reduce our prices if our competitors reduce their prices or increase promotional spending, which could result in a material decline in our revenues and earnings. Increased competition among distributors of automotive and industrial parts, including increased availability among digital and…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.