Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR): what the price requires
At today's price, Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) is priced for +10.9% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SNDR
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | SNDR |
| Company | Schneider National, Inc. |
| Sector / Industry | Industrials |
| Current price | $36.82/sh |
| Composition | Transportation 92% / Logistics management 4% / Other 4% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 1.6% |
| Operating margin (mid-cycle) | 6.4% |
| Margin compression implied | -4.8pp |
| Trailing margin (depressed year) | 2.9% |
| Implied growth | 10.9% |
| Multiple paid | 18x mid-cycle operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 11, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.9% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.7pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +0.32σ |
| cohort percentile (of 225 peers) | 36 |
| sustained it ~5 years at this level | 53% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 8.10x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.08x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.84x | 3 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.96x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=14)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $44.67 | 0.82x | yes | FCF base $0.4B, growth 6% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.8%, 5yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $38.41 | 0.96x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 8.9x / 10.9x / 12.9x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $31.96 | 1.15x | yes | P/E 33.85x (blended: static sector reference 20x + trailing (TTM) 66x), scenarios: 28.5x / 33.9x / 39.2x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 13x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $6.02 | 6.12x | yes | BV/sh $17.17, ROE (TTM) 3.2%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $3.65 | 10.09x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $28.65 | 1.29x | yes | Rev $5.7B, growth 6% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 1.0x / 1.1x / 1.3x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $15.75 | 2.34x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.34B × (1−25%) / WACC 8.8% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $2.73 | 13.49x | yes | BV $17.17 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 3.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 2.1%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $14.71 | 2.50x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $0.56 × BVPS $17.17) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $43.95 | 0.84x | yes | EBITDA $0.61B × sector EV/EBITDA 13.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $21.18 | 1.74x | yes | FCF $360.1M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $20.16 | 1.83x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.34B (FCF $0.36B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $0.47 | 78.34x | yes | EPS $0.56 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) (excluded from median) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $1.53 | 24.07x | yes | BV $17.17 × (ROIC 0.8% / WACC 8.8%) (excluded from median) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $64.48 | 0.57x | yes | Revenue $5.67B × sector P/S 2.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $6.05 | 6.09x | yes | EPS $0.56 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $134.4m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 0.49x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 0.37x |
| Interest coverage | 11.0x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -0.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 6.4%); the trailing year was depressed.
Bullet Takeaways
- Schneider pairs a spot-exposed truckload network with a structurally better core: a Dedicated fleet near 8,600 trucks plus an Intermodal segment in a market its 10-K describes as "highly consolidated among three intermodal providers" (accession 0001692063-26-000013), with $40 million of cost savings from the Cowan integration underway.
- The risk is that the price already assumes the recovery: at about 18 times normalized mid-cycle operating income (versus $160 million actually earned trailing), the quote needs roughly 11 percent annual operating growth for five years, while first-quarter EPS was $0.12 and consensus targets sit near $33, below the stock.
- Watch the second-quarter report on July 30, 2026: maintained FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.70 to $1.00, the pace of enforcement-driven capacity attrition, and whether early upcycle signs survive the quarter.
Bull Case
Schneider is a mature trucking franchise being read at the bottom of its cycle, and that framing does most of the analytical work. Trailing GAAP operating income of $160 million is trough economics, not the business: on the company's own through-the-cycle margins applied to current revenue, normalized operating income runs around $363 million, and the first quarter's numbers, $1,398.5 million of flat revenue and $0.12 of diluted EPS against $0.15 a year ago, describe a carrier holding position through disruptive weather and fuel volatility while the freight recession exhausts itself. The bull case is that you are buying mid-cycle earnings power at a trough multiple just as the cycle's supply side finally breaks: management reported capacity attrition accelerating as regulatory enforcement removes noncompliant carriers, including actions against non-domicile CDLs and ELD tampering, and called early signs of a freight upcycle taking hold.
What Schneider did with the downturn matters more than the downturn. Network Truckload revenue per truck per week rose 7 percent year over year on productivity and AI-driven efficiency rather than price, the Dedicated fleet has been built out to nearly 8,600 trucks, and the Cowan Systems integration added lightweight equipment that moves more freight per shipment while feeding a $40 million cost savings program. Dedicated contract carriage is the structural upgrade inside the mix: multi-year, customer-embedded fleets with steadier economics than spot-exposed network freight, and the FY2025 10-K discloses $278.1 million of contracted future revenue across transportation and logistics management performance obligations (accession 0001692063-26-000013). Intermodal adds a second structural position; the filing notes "The domestic intermodal market is highly consolidated among three intermodal providers, including our Intermodal segment" (accession 0001692063-26-000013), which is a far better industry structure than the fragmented truckload market it complements.
The balance sheet lets the company wait out whatever remains of the trough. Net debt is a modest $134 million, interest coverage runs 11 times even on depressed earnings, the share count has drifted down slightly over four years, and full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $0.70 to $1.00 was maintained rather than cut. The bear will say every carrier promises the upcycle is near. Fair. But the priced-in assumption here, roughly 11 percent annual operating growth off normalized earnings for five years, is the kind of recovery-plus-productivity path that about half of comparable growers have historically delivered, and Schneider is entering it with its cost base already restructured.
Bear Case
One external variable dominates this thesis: the freight cycle, and Schneider does not control it. The company's own 10-K states it plainly, operating "in a highly competitive and fragmented industry that is characterized by intense price competition which could have a materially adverse effect on our results of operations" (accession 0001692063-26-000013). Management maintained rather than raised guidance precisely because the macro remains unproven: executives flagged inflation and rate-cut uncertainty and said they need sustained demand improvement before lifting the $0.70 to $1.00 adjusted EPS range. The recovery case leans heavily on supply attrition from regulatory enforcement, which is a borrowed catalyst: enforcement priorities can change with administrations, and a capacity-driven rate recovery without demand behind it has historically been the weakest kind.
The demand side carries a quieter structural threat the filing names: "our major customers may increasingly use their own truckload and delivery fleets, which would reduce our freight volumes", including dedicated customers (accession 0001692063-26-000013). Insourcing by large shippers attacks precisely the Dedicated growth engine the bull case relies on, and the same 10-K concedes that despite heavy investment in digital offerings "there can be no assurance that our investments, technologies, or strategies will be successful" against new entrants and brokers (accession 0001692063-26-000013). Meanwhile the actual trailing numbers are thin: first-quarter net income fell to $20.4 million from $26.1 million, and EPS guidance at the midpoint implies a company earning less than a dollar a share against a $36.37 stock.
That is the valuation problem in one sentence: the price only works on normalized earnings that have not yet arrived. At about 18 times mid-cycle operating income, the market pays for roughly 11 percent annual operating growth for five years; on what the business actually earned over the trailing four quarters, the earnings-power reads sit at roughly half the price and the asset-value reads far below it. Only the peer-multiple and growth-based methods reach the quote, and both embed the recovery as a premise. If the upcycle stalls, if enforcement-driven attrition reverses, or if a large dedicated customer insources, the stock has to be re-read on trough economics it is currently allowed to look past. The street's own consensus target near $33 sits below the price, a Hold rating wearing arithmetic.
Valuation
The price reads through the cycle, so start there. Trailing GAAP operating income of $160 million is depressed by the freight recession; the analysis prices the record-basis trailing figure of about $363 million, which matches the company's normalized through-cycle margin of roughly 6.4 percent applied to current revenue (the two bases diverge widely here, both are labeled, and the normalized one is the honest denominator for a cyclical at trough). On that basis, $36.37 (July 10, 2026) pays about 18 times mid-cycle operating income, which inverts, at a 9 percent cost of capital with 4 percent terminal growth, to roughly 11.2 percent annual operating growth for five years. That assumption is within range: the pace is one Schneider has recently delivered, and about 52 percent of comparable growers sustained it over a five-year window. The solve is sensitive, with each percentage point of cost of capital moving implied growth by about 6.6 points, so treat it as a corridor rather than a point.
The methods split exactly the way a trough-cycle read should. Peer multiples and the growth-based cash-flow methods reach the price, landing at or slightly above it; the earnings-power reads sit at roughly half, and the asset-anchored reads far below, because both are staring at depressed trailing profits. The pattern is a recovery bet, not a durability premium: the market is paying normalized economics now and trusting the cycle to deliver them. The near-term evidence is mixed but real: revenue held flat at $1,398.5 million in the first quarter, revenue per truck per week rose 7 percent on productivity, and the contracted revenue disclosure shows $278.1 million of future performance obligations (accession 0001692063-26-000013).
Solvency gives the recovery time to arrive. Net debt of $134 million against $400 million gross, interest coverage of 11 times on trough earnings, no cash burn, and a share count down about 0.4 percent a year make the downside a waiting problem rather than a balance-sheet problem. The decisive number to track is simple: whether operating income closes the gap from $160 million actual toward $363 million normalized. The price has already assumed most of that journey; the quarters have to walk it.
Catalysts
The next dated event is close: Schneider reports second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026. The print carries three specific reads. First, whether management still sees the freight upcycle forming; on the first-quarter call executives cited accelerating capacity attrition from regulatory enforcement against noncompliant carriers, including non-domicile CDL actions and ELD tampering, as the supply-side catalyst. Second, whether full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $0.70 to $1.00, maintained in April with a roughly 24 percent tax rate assumption, gets raised, held, or trimmed; management explicitly tied any raise to sustained demand improvement. Third, progress on the $40 million cost savings initiative, which includes headcount actions and Cowan Systems integration synergies.
The first quarter itself set a soft but stabilizing baseline: operating revenues of $1,398.5 million were roughly flat against $1,401.8 million a year earlier, net income slipped to $20.4 million from $26.1 million, and diluted EPS came in at $0.12 versus $0.15, with weather and fuel volatility weighing on profitability. Underneath, Network Truckload revenue per truck per week rose 7 percent year over year on productivity and AI-driven efficiency rather than price, which is the kind of gain that compounds if rates ever join in.
Street positioning is neutral: a Hold consensus from 11 analysts with targets around $32.69 to $33.55, essentially at or below the current price. That leaves the stock catalyst-driven: enforcement data on carrier exits, spot-rate firmness through the summer, and the Dedicated pipeline (fleet growth and retention against the insourcing risk the 10-K flags) are the items that move the thesis between now and year-end.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Truckload / Intermodal (reported)
- ODFL (OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SAIA (Saia, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- XPO (XPO, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ARCB (ARCBEST CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- KNX (Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WERN (WERNER ENTERPRISES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Logistics (reported)
- KNX (Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- WERN (WERNER ENTERPRISES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- JBHT (J.B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ARCB (ARCBEST CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ODFL (OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SAIA (Saia, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- LSTR (LANDSTAR SYSTEM, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ZTO (ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q1 2026 earnings call, April 2026 · Daily Political, June 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings call; StockTitan, 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings release, April 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings call and coverage, 2026 · Daily Political consensus summary, June 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings release and call, April 2026 · StockTitan, 2026 · Q1 2026 10-Q via StockTitan, 2026 · Daily Political and Public.com, June-July 2026