SHARKNINJA, INC. (SN): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $182.14, SHARKNINJA, INC. (SN) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~13.9 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-07-11.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SN

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 7: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 13.5% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.4 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~5.6 years; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: high

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=18)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• SharkNinja's distinction is a repeatable category-creation engine: the FY2025 10-K states the company is "not limited by our current categories" and cites Circana data ranking Shark the #1 U.S. vacuum brand in dollar sales (accession 0001957132-26-000015), and first-quarter 2026 sales grew 15.6 percent to $1.41 billion across every region.
• The risk is duration, not solvency: at $152.66 the market pays about 24 times trailing operating income, a bet on near-ceiling growth for roughly 12 years that only the forward-growth methods support, while the whole cost base sits in Asia under tariff regimes the company cannot control.
• Watch the second-quarter print in early August 2026 against raised full-year guidance of 11.5 to 12.5 percent sales growth and adjusted EPS of $6.00 to $6.10, a forecast that assumes current tariff levels persist all year.

Bull Case

Start with the fear, because it is legitimate: SharkNinja designs vacuums, air fryers, and hair stylers in Massachusetts and builds nearly all of them in Asia, which puts the entire cost structure downstream of tariff policy. The FY2025 10-K names the exposure plainly, flagging factors that "could depress economic activity and restrict our access to suppliers, retailers or consumers" and could "affect our strategy in China, Vietnam and elsewhere around the world" (accession 0001957132-26-000015). Then look at what actually happened. First-quarter 2026 net sales rose 15.6 percent to $1.41 billion with growth across all regions, adjusted EBITDA rose 17.5 percent to $235 million, and management raised full-year guidance while explicitly assuming current tariff levels persist all year. The bear's central stress test ran live through the P&L, and the company grew through it.

What absorbs the shock is a product engine that keeps minting new categories. The 10-K describes the model as "innovations and rapidly capturing market share across sub-categories" and states "we are not limited by our current categories, because our cross-functional design and engineering capabilities allow us to enter adjacent and altogether new categories" (accession 0001957132-26-000015). The same filing cites Circana data showing "Shark is the #1 vacuum brand in the United States in dollar sales" and Shark as the top-growing hair styling brand (accession 0001957132-26-000015). That engine is visibly running in mid-2026: Bank of America tracked second-quarter domestic sell-through at 25.7 percent growth against estimated industry growth of 2.6 percent, driven by viral traction in the Ninja SLUSHi, ChillPill, and Frost Vault Cooler, and raised its price target from $145 to $165. Guggenheim went to $175 on the growth strategy.

The compounding math is what the market is buying. Operating expense leverage has now improved for four straight quarters, adjusted EPS grew 25 percent to $1.09 in the first quarter, and the raised 2026 outlook calls for net sales growth of 11.5 to 12.5 percent with adjusted EPS of $6.00 to $6.10. The balance sheet barely registers as a constraint: net debt of $215 million stands against trailing operating income that covers it many times over in a single year. The concession the bull must make is price, since only the forward-growth methods reach today's quote. But a company that grows mid-teens through the worst tariff regime in decades, funds its own expansion, and keeps producing hit categories on demand is precisely the profile for which trailing multiples flatter the seller, not the buyer.

Bear Case

The capital structure is clean, and that is worth stating precisely before explaining why it does not settle the matter: $726 million of gross debt against $512 million of liquid assets leaves net debt around $215 million, a rounding error against operating income. The fragility in this business does not live on the balance sheet; it lives in the cost structure and the channel. Nearly everything SharkNinja sells is made by contract manufacturers in Asia, sourced through what the 10-K calls its "on-the-ground sourcing organization in Asia, which facilitates a competitive bidding process across numerous manufacturers" (accession 0001957132-26-000015), and the same filing lists "import duties and tariffs, currency exchange rates, international treaties" among the forces bearing on results while conceding "We rely substantially on our retailers and distributors" (accession 0001957132-26-000015). A stress scenario here is not a debt spiral; it is a tariff step-up or a retailer inventory correction hitting a cost base the company cannot quickly move.

The price then demands that none of this ever bites for a long time. At about 24 times trailing company-wide operating income, today's $152.66 implies operating growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly 12 years; among comparable fast growers, only about 15 percent sustained that pace even ten. The valuation methods split in a telling way: asset-value reads sit at roughly a third of the price, trailing earnings power and free-cash-flow reads at roughly a quarter, peer multiples a third below, and only the forward-growth methods reach the quote. That is a durability premium, and durability is exactly what is hardest to underwrite in small appliances, where demand is discretionary, replacement cycles are long, and this year's viral hit is next year's clearance aisle.

The product treadmill cuts both ways. The company's own risk factors state that "If we are unable to commercialize a continuing stream of new products and line extensions that create demand", its ability to compete may be materially harmed (accession 0001957132-26-000015). Today's growth leans on SLUSHi-style category creations sustaining momentum, and the 2026 guidance already banks tariff mitigation, pricing, and mix working in concert. Whirlpool and Newell are reminders of where mature appliance economics settle; SharkNinja's cohort trades at a fraction of its multiple because the market grants them no such durability. If category expansion slows or a hit cycle misses, the growth methods that alone support the price lose their premise, and the static frames sitting far below become the reference point. The bet is not that SharkNinja is a good business. It is that a fad-driven category can compound like a franchise for over a decade.

Valuation

The price is a bet on duration. At $152.66 (July 10, 2026), the market pays about 24 times trailing company-wide operating income, which inverts to operating growth held near the 25 percent self-funding ceiling for roughly 12 years at a cost of capital around 13 percent. The near-term rate is not the problem; SharkNinja has recently delivered that pace, and each percentage point of growth conceded moves the required horizon only about two years. The stretch is persistence: among comparable fast growers, only about 15 percent sustained this level for even ten years. One denominator note: the trailing operating income the price analysis uses is the record-basis figure of about $920 million, while EDGAR's quarterly GAAP tally reads higher at about $2.26 billion; the two are different measurement bases, both labeled here, and neither is silently substituted for the other.

The pattern across the methods is the classic moat-premium signature: asset-value reads sit at roughly a third of the price, trailing earnings power and free-cash-flow reads at roughly a quarter, peer multiples about a third below, and only the forward-growth family reaches the quote. When one family alone can defend a price, the question is whether the growth it credits is durable, and the filing-sourced inputs under that bet are concrete: the 10-K's stated strategy of entering "adjacent and altogether new categories" through cross-functional design and engineering (accession 0001957132-26-000015), and a cost base run through an Asia sourcing organization using "a competitive bidding process across numerous manufacturers to secure favorable pricing terms" (accession 0001957132-26-000015). The raised 2026 outlook of 11.5 to 12.5 percent sales growth with adjusted EPS of $6.00 to $6.10, assuming current tariffs persist, is the near-term test of that durability.

Solvency does not complicate the picture. Net debt of $215 million against $726 million gross is a fraction of a year's operating income, the company is not burning cash, and liquidity of about $512 million covers the working-capital swings a seasonal consumer business runs through. The downside here is not a balance-sheet event; it is multiple compression toward where the static methods already sit if the category-creation engine slows. What the buyer at today's price is underwriting is twelve more years of SharkNinja inventing things households did not know they wanted.

Catalysts

The first-quarter report on May 6, 2026 reset the year upward: net sales of $1.41 billion rose 15.6 percent with growth across domestic and international markets, adjusted EBITDA rose 17.5 percent to $235 million, and adjusted EPS grew 25 percent to $1.09 on a fourth consecutive quarter of operating expense leverage. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to net sales growth of 11.5 to 12.5 percent, adjusted EBITDA of $1.29 to $1.30 billion, and adjusted EPS of $6.00 to $6.10, with the outlook assuming current tariff levels persist for the remainder of the year, including minimum rates that shifted from 20 percent to 10 percent for China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia, and no benefit from any potential tariff refunds.

Mid-quarter signals have run hot. Bank of America raised its price target from $145 to $165, citing second-quarter domestic sell-through tracking at 25.7 percent growth versus an estimated 2.6 percent for the industry, with viral online momentum behind the Ninja SLUSHi, ChillPill, and Ninja Frost Vault Cooler. Guggenheim raised its target to $175 on the growth strategy. The product calendar supplies the next proof points: the FlexStyle IonCurl launched at $349.99 in hair styling, and the pipeline includes the Shark BlastBoss plus two further Ninja launches planned for 2026.

The second-quarter report, due in early August 2026, is the next dated event, and the reads that matter are whether international expansion in the U.K. and Mexico plus direct-to-consumer and TikTok Shop rollouts keep offsetting tariff pressure on gross margin, and whether the raised guidance absorbs another quarter of mitigation costs.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

SharkNinja (consolidated) (reported)

• NWL (NEWELL BRANDS INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Form 8-K dated November 13, 2024, File No. 001-09608). 4.6 Form of 5.375% note due 2036 issued pursuant to the Indenture, dated as of November 19, 2014, between the Company and U.S. Bank National Association, as trustee (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 4.5 to the Company's Current Report on Form 8-K dated March…
• FY2025 10-K: -01-01 2023-12-31 0000814453 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2023-12-31 0000814453 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2023-12-31 0000814453 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2023-12-31 0000814453 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2023-12-31 0000814453 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-12-31 0000814453…
• WHR (WHIRLPOOL CORP /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …a result of the deconsolidation of Whirlpool India. Prior period segment information has been recast to retrospectively reflect this change. The MDA Europe segment was deconsolidated as of April 1, 2024 upon the completion of the contribu tion agreement transaction with Arcelik. For additional information, see Note…
• FY2025 10-K: …at least 10% of consolidated net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023 in the amounts of $ 2.4 billion, $ 2.5 billion and $ 2.4 billion respectively. 104 NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - (CONTINUED) The following table summarizes the countries that represent at least 10% of consolidated long-lived assets for…
• AOS (A. O. Smith Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …false 0000091142 FY 2025 P3Y P3Y P2Y P1Y P2Y P1Y http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#AccruedLiabilitiesCurrent CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF EARNINGS CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF EARNINGS .3333 0.1 xbrli:shares iso4217:USD iso4217:USD xbrli:shares aos:segment xbrli:pure…
• FY2025 10-K: ConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember aos:NorthAmericaSegmentMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000091142 aos:CustomerTwoMember us-gaap:GeographicConcentrationRiskMember us-gaap:SalesRevenueNetMember aos:NorthAmericaSegmentMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000091142 aos:CustomerOneMember…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.