SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $96.39, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (SITE) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~5.3 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SITE

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.2% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling.

How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.6%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=17)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• SiteOne is the largest wholesale distributor of landscaping supplies in the United States, growing by rolling up a fragmented market of local suppliers, and its sales are tied directly to residential construction, repair and upgrade activity.
• The price is rich on every standard lens: at about 27 times operating income it embeds growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly eight years, a pace only about a fifth of comparable fast-growers have sustained that long.
• What moves the story next is the mix of pricing, weather-driven volume, and acquisitions; the first quarter of 2026 saw flat net sales of $940.1 million with organic daily sales down 1% on poor weather, and full-year adjusted EBITDA is guided to $425 million to $455 million.

Bull Case

The obvious knock on SiteOne is the price, so meet it head-on: the stock trades richly on every backward-looking measure. The case for paying it rests on what the business is doing, which is consolidating a fragmented market faster than anyone else. SiteOne's strategy, in its own words, is to grow "with limited capital investment by systematically executing local strategies to expand our customer base, increase the amount of our customers' total spending with us, optimize our network of locations" and bolt on acquisitions. In a market of thousands of small local suppliers, the largest national distributor with multi-site delivery and breadth of product has a structural advantage a single-branch competitor cannot match. The first quarter of 2026 continued the roll-up with the acquisition of Reinders, a fifth-generation Midwest market leader, alongside Bourget Flagstone, together adding roughly $110 million in annualized sales.

The economics of the model are about share of wallet and density. Professional landscape contractors increasingly want one supplier that carries "local availability of core and complementary products in quantities our customers need," and SiteOne's full-line branches combine regular facilities with large yards that let it serve that demand. Each acquired branch plugs into the national network, gaining purchasing scale, private-label products, and digital ordering that an independent could not afford. That is why the company can keep growing even when end-market volume is soft: in the first quarter, despite organic daily sales falling 1% on weather, gross profit rose 3% and gross margin improved to 33.9% on better price realization and commercial initiatives.

The forward case is that pricing and acquisitions carry the company through a flat-demand year and reaccelerate when residential activity recovers. Management raised its pricing expectation to 2% to 3% for 2026 and expects that to offset flat volumes for low-single-digit organic growth, with full-year adjusted EBITDA guided to $425 million to $455 million. The balance sheet supports continued dealmaking, with net debt at about 2.4 times operating income and interest coverage near seven times. The bull case is a durable compounder using a soft cycle to buy competitors cheaply and emerge with more share.

Bear Case

The structural pressure point is that SiteOne's demand is not in its own hands. The 10-K is explicit that demand for its products "is highly correlated with residential construction, including repairs and upgrades," and that housing starts depend on "housing demand, housing inventory levels, housing affordability and mortgage rates." A distributor with a thin operating margin, near 5% on a trailing basis, has little cushion when volumes soften, and the first quarter of 2026 showed organic daily sales falling 1% on unfavorable weather alone. Weather and the housing cycle are exogenous, and the business is built to amplify both: a low-margin distributor levers small swings in volume into larger swings in profit.

The balance sheet adds a second layer of fragility because the growth model is funded with debt. SiteOne carries net debt of about 2.4 times operating income, and the roll-up depends on a steady cadence of acquisitions financed in part by borrowing. That is comfortable in a normal environment with interest coverage near seven times, but it ties the growth engine to credit conditions: if rates stay high or acquisition multiples rise, the accretion from each deal shrinks, and a soft demand year is exactly when integration risk and goodwill on the balance sheet matter most. The acquisitive growth that justifies the multiple is also what makes the company sensitive to the cost and availability of capital.

The valuation is where the bear bites hardest. At about 27 times operating income, no standard valuation family reaches the price: it is rich on assets, on earnings power, on peer multiples, and even on forward growth. The price embeds growth held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly eight years, and only about a fifth of comparable fast-growers have sustained that pace that long. The current operating margin near 5.1% is thin, and the price requires both that margin to expand and the growth to persist. If residential demand stays soft and pricing normalizes, the gap between a richly-priced compounder and a cyclically-exposed low-margin distributor closes the wrong way, and the multiple has far more room to compress than the fundamentals have to grow into it.

Valuation

Today's price pays about 27 times company-wide operating income, and what it embeds is durability of growth: operating profit held near the company's self-funding ceiling for roughly eight years. The near-term pace is within what SiteOne has recently delivered, so the bet is not on the rate but on how long it persists, and history is unkind to that duration, only about a fifth of comparable fast-growers sustained this pace for seven-and-a-half years. This is a premium paid for a compounder, and the premium assumes the compounding does not fade.

The spread across the methods says the price is a bet beyond what any standard frame supports. The asset-value and earnings-power methods land furthest below the price, the peer-multiple methods land below, and even the forward-growth methods, which credit next-period growth, do not reach it. When no family reaches the price, the market is not paying for what the business has demonstrated; it is paying for a long runway of continued consolidation and margin gains. Against its distribution cohort, this is a stretched valuation rather than a mid-pack one, reflecting SiteOne's faster acquisitive growth but also leaving the least room for disappointment.

The balance sheet is the boundary on the downside and a constraint on the upside at once. Net debt of about $584 million runs roughly 2.4 times operating income with interest coverage near seven times, which is manageable but leaves the growth model dependent on continued access to capital for acquisitions. The thin operating margin near 5% means cash generation is sensitive to volume, and a distributor's working capital swings with the season, with sales much lower in the first and fourth quarters. The decisive point for this price is not solvency, which is sound; it is that a 27-times multiple on a low-margin, housing-correlated distributor requires the acquisition machine and pricing power to keep delivering through a demand environment management itself expects to be down modestly for the year.

Catalysts

SiteOne reported first-quarter 2026 results in late April, with net sales essentially flat at $940.1 million against $939.4 million a year earlier. Organic daily sales fell 1% as unfavorable weather cut volumes, though pricing stayed positive and acquisitions added $12.4 million of sales. The margin story was the bright spot: gross profit rose 3% to $318.8 million and gross margin improved to 33.9% on better price realization and commercial initiatives. The first quarter is seasonally the company's weakest, so the read-through is more about pricing and margin direction than the headline volume.

The acquisition cadence remained active. SiteOne completed Reinders, a fifth-generation Midwest market leader, alongside Bourget Flagstone, with the two deals contributing roughly $110 million in annualized trailing sales. Each deal is a discrete catalyst for the roll-up thesis, adding branches and share, and the pace of acquisitions through the year is a direct input to growth given soft organic demand.

Management framed full-year 2026 around pricing offsetting flat volume. It raised its pricing expectation to 2% to 3% growth, expects overall end-market demand to be down modestly, and still targets flat sales volume and low-single-digit organic daily sales growth including acquisitions. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance is $425 million to $455 million, including a $4 million to $5 million headwind from an extra week in the year. Weather through the peak second and third quarters and the trajectory of residential demand are the swing factors for whether the company lands in the upper or lower half of that range.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

SiteOne Landscape Supply (consolidated) (reported)

• POOL (POOL CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …renewal options, some of which involve rent increases. In addition to minimum rental payments, which are set at competitive rates, certain leases require reimbursement for taxes, maintenance and insurance. We do not believe that any single lease is material to our operations. Our sales centers range in size from…
• FY2025 10-K: …creating efficiencies for both us and our customers. We plan to continue expanding our POOL360 technologies to provide additional resources for our customers. We have grown our distribution networks through new sales center openings, acquisitions and the expansion of existing sales centers based on our market…
• CNM (Core & Main, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and the Company is currently evaluating the effect this standard will have on the consolidated financial statements. 3) REVENUE Disaggregation of Revenue The following table represents net sales disaggregated by product category: Fiscal Years Ended Product Category February 2, 2025 January 28, 2024 January 29, 2023…
• FY2025 10-K: …plant solutions for municipal customers, fabrication and kitting assemblies for fire protection contractors, and geosynthetics and erosion control products for residential and non-residential developers. We have identified a number of underpenetrated product categories in large and attractive markets where we can…
• WSO (WATSCO INC)
• FY2025 10-K: :RestrictedStockMember wso:CommonAndClassBCommonStockMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000105016 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel3Member us-gaap:OtherAssetsMember 2025-12-31 0000105016 wso:FederalFundsEffectiveRateMember us-gaap:RevolvingCreditFacilityMember wso:BaseRateBorrowingMember srt:MaximumMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31…
• FY2025 10-K: Report on Form 10-K, we have not encountered incidents from cybersecurity threats that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our business strategy, results of operations, or financial position. ITEM 2. PROPERTIES Our main properties include warehousing and distribution facilities,…
• AIT (APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and greater U.S. manufacturing activity. We believe these considerations are accelerating consolidation across our sector both organically and through acquisitions as customers increase business with larger, more capable distributors while smaller providers face rising operational requirements. We are favorably…
• FY2025 10-K: …distributor and technical solutions provider of industrial motion, power, control, and automation technologies. We market our products with a set of service solutions including inventory management, engineering, design, assembly, repair, and systems integration, as well as customized mechanical, fabricated rubber,…
• MSM (MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Financial Statements for additional information. Our Strategy The first phase of our Company-wide initiative, referred to as "Mission Critical," focused on market share capture and improved profitability. We successfully executed on the first phase of Mission Critical initiatives at the end of fiscal year 2023, which…
• FY2025 10-K: …99 % of consolidated net sales, with 95 % of the total being from the Company's operations in the United States. The remaining 1 % of consolidated net sales is from the Company's operations in other foreign countries. Business Combinations and Asset Acquisitions The Company accounts for business combinations in…
• DXPE (DXP Enterprises, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …This ASU will likely result in the required additional disclosures being included in our consolidated financial statements, once adopted. We are currently evaluating the provisions of this ASU. NOTE 4 - LEASES We lease office space, warehouses, land, automobiles, buildings, and manufacturing equipment. Some of our…
• FY2025 10-K: …0001020710 2025 FY False http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesNoncurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesCurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesNoncurrent http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherLiabilitiesNoncurrent…
• RS (RELIANCE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …unfavorable metals demand and/or raw material pricing. ​ ● Industry Leader According to the MSCI reporting of industry tons sold in the U.S., our 2025 tons sold from our U.S. locations represented approximately 17% of the total tons sold by the U.S. metals service center industry compared to approximately 15% for…
• FY2025 10-K: …location averaging approximately two shifts operating at full capacity for a five-day work week. We have the ability to increase our operating capacity significantly without further investment in facilities or equipment if demand levels increase. ​ We leased 75 of our metals service center facilities as of December…
• WCC (WESCO International, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …enforcement to better understand macro trends and significant risk concerns to better inform and enhance our cybersecurity policies and procedures. Item 2. Properties. We operate a network of approximately 600 distribution and fulfillment center locations that hold inventory, and approximately 120 sales offices, with…
• FY2025 10-K: …("UBS"). The Company's operating segments are described further in Note 16, "Business Segments". 2. ACCOUNTING POLICIES Basis of Presentation The consolidated financial statements include the accounts of Wesco International and all of its subsidiaries. All intercompany accounts and transactions have been eliminated…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.