SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC (SIGI): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $92.46, SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC (SIGI) is priced for 11.0% return on equity. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SIGI

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Solve inputs: computed at a 8.4% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 10-year stage, on common book equity (FY2026).

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

The price is supported by asset-based and earnings-power value. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 4.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=4)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

The issuer is a funded financial business. Debt, interest, and cash flows are operating inputs, so industrial EV, net-debt, WACC, and free-cash-flow lenses do not apply; value the common-equity claim with book, earnings, capital, and payout economics.

No unit-level total common-equity value is stated. Each financial unit requires supported standalone common equity, normalized earnings, capital adequacy, and payout capacity. Consolidated debt, interest, and cash are operating balances, not an enterprise-to-equity bridge; company-level book, earnings, capital, and payout lenses remain the coherent cross-checks.

Solvency

Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).

Bullet Takeaways

• Selective is a regional property-and-casualty insurer built around standard commercial lines, with smaller personal-lines and excess-and-surplus books and an investment portfolio, and the number that decides its value is the return it earns on capital, not a sales multiple.
• The price pays about 1.6 times book value and assumes the insurer sustains a return on equity near 11.4%, below the roughly 13.4% it has recently earned, which is the market pricing in some normalization rather than extrapolating the recent peak.
• What to watch is the combined ratio and reserve adequacy: the first quarter of 2026 ran a 98.3% combined ratio with 6.2 points of catastrophe losses and no net prior-year casualty reserve development, and full-year guidance targets a 96.5% to 97.5% combined ratio.

Bull Case

The single most decisive number for an insurer is the return it earns on its capital, and Selective has been earning about 13.4% on equity, comfortably above its cost of capital. That is the whole game. An insurer that consistently earns more on its capital than the capital costs creates value every year it does so, and the price today asks it to sustain a return near 11.4%, below what it has been delivering. The bull case is that the gap is conservative: a company earning 13.4% is being priced for 11.4%, leaving room if underwriting discipline holds.

The business mix is built for that discipline. Selective leads with standard commercial lines, the segment where its underwriting department "oversees our underwriting philosophy and guidelines for each market size, SBU, and line of business", and supplements it with an excess-and-surplus book that writes risks "standard line carriers have declined to write" and that is exempt from much standard form and rate regulation. The E&S line carried an average 2024 premium per policyholder of approximately $5,300, a smaller, harder-to-write book that tends to price better in a firm market. The company also wraps risk-management services around its commercial customers, giving agents and policyholders "on-demand access to a curated selection of self-service risk management resources", which is the kind of value-add that helps retain accounts and supports pricing.

The investment side is the quiet second engine. A P&C insurer holds float, the premiums collected before claims are paid, and invests it, and Selective's full-year 2026 guidance points to after-tax net investment income of $465 million. Rising portfolio yields lift that income without any change to underwriting, so the same book of business earns more as bonds roll into higher-rate paper. With the share count essentially flat and the company returning capital through dividends, the combination of disciplined underwriting and a growing investment yield is what lets an insurer earning 13.4% on equity keep compounding book value per share. The price is paying for less than that.

Bear Case

Reserve adequacy is the soft ground under every property-and-casualty insurer, and it is where the bear case for Selective starts. An insurer books a profit today on its estimate of claims that will be paid years from now, and the 10-K is candid that "the ultimate loss and loss expense ratios may differ from current estimates." When those estimates prove light, the company strengthens reserves and prior-year profit gets clawed back. The most recent quarter showed no net prior-year casualty reserve development, which is reassuring, but the earnings call carried caution on reserve strengthening and personal-lines challenges, and casualty reserves in particular have been a sector-wide source of negative surprises. A return on equity of 13.4% built partly on reserves that later prove inadequate is not 13.4%.

The earnings quality question feeds the valuation. The price assumes a sustained return on equity near 11.4% and pays about 1.6 times book to get it, and the historical record is that only about 72% of firms earning this kind of return held it for a decade at this level. Catastrophe exposure is the visible version of the risk: the first quarter of 2026 absorbed 6.2 points of catastrophe losses, pushing the combined ratio to 98.3%, meaning the company kept barely two cents of underwriting profit per premium dollar before investment income. A heavier catastrophe year, a softening pricing cycle, or further reserve strengthening would each pull the realized return below the 11.4% the price assumes, and a regional insurer with concentrated geographic exposure feels weather more than a national diversified carrier.

The valuation itself sits in the lower half of the peer group's price-to-book, which the bear reads two ways. It can mean the stock is cheap, or it can mean the market assigns Selective a lower-quality multiple than carriers like W.R. Berkley or The Hartford for a reason, whether that is reserve risk, geographic concentration, or a personal-lines book under pressure. The valuation methods are mixed: the relative-multiple lens lands well below the price, the earnings-power methods sit below, and only the growth lens reaches above. When the peer-multiple and earnings lenses both say the price is full relative to current returns, the bull case has to lean on the return staying near its recent high, and that is precisely the assumption reserve and catastrophe risk most threaten.

Valuation

An insurer is worth the return it earns on its capital, so the price is read off book value, not an operating multiple. At today's level the market pays about 1.6 times book and assumes Selective sustains a return on equity near 11.4%, against the roughly 13.4% it has recently earned. The assumption is within reach of the company's own record, which is what keeps the priced-in expectation broadly reasonable rather than stretched. The bet, in plain terms, is that the recent return normalizes modestly but does not collapse.

The valuation methods sit mostly at or below the price. The relative-multiple lens, which compares Selective to its insurance peers, lands furthest below the price, reflecting that the stock trades in the lower half of the peer group's price-to-book. The earnings-power methods sit below as well, and the asset-value lens lands just under the price; only the growth method reaches above it. That spread is the signature of a fairly-to-fully-priced insurer rather than a deep-value one: the market is paying about what the current return justifies, with little margin for the return to fade. If the sustained return came in at the peer-implied level rather than near its recent high, the price-to-book it supports would compress toward where the relative method lands.

The right solvency frame here is not debt and coverage but regulatory capital and payout capacity, because a P&C insurer's balance sheet is float-funded; debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and operating cash flow follows claim and premium flows. Selective's capacity to return cash rests on its underwriting profit plus its investment income, and full-year 2026 guidance frames both: a GAAP combined ratio of 96.5% to 97.5%, which is an underwriting profit of two-and-a-half to three-and-a-half cents per premium dollar, plus after-tax net investment income of $465 million. Those two streams fund the dividend and hold book value compounding. The decisive variable for the price is whether the combined ratio stays inside that band, because every point of deterioration flows straight to the return on equity the price is paying for.

Catalysts

Selective reported first-quarter 2026 results in April, with GAAP net income of $1.58 per diluted share and a combined ratio of 98.3%. Catastrophe losses contributed 6.2 points to the ratio, and the quarter carried no net prior-year casualty reserve development, an important detail given how often reserve strengthening has surprised the sector. The result missed the consensus operating estimate modestly, and the stock's reaction reflected a mix of constructive guidance and caution on reserves and personal lines.

The full-year guidance sets the bar for the rest of 2026. Management targets a GAAP combined ratio of 96.5% to 97.5%, after-tax net investment income of $465 million, an effective tax rate of 21.5%, and about 60.5 million weighted average diluted shares. The combined ratio band is the number to watch each quarter, because at these levels a single point of movement is a meaningful swing in underwriting profit, and catastrophe activity through storm season is the largest uncontrolled input.

Analyst sentiment is constructive but measured. The most recent rating is a Buy with a $95 price target, close to the current price, and the commentary pairs a positive view of the 2026 underwriting and investment outlook with caution on reserve strengthening and the personal-lines book. The recurring theme is that the underwriting franchise and rising investment income support the return, while reserve adequacy and catastrophe exposure are the risks that could pull it down.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Standard Commercial Lines (reported)

• THG (HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: (in millions) Core Commercial Specialty Personal Lines Other Total Operating revenues: Premiums $ 2,211.0 $ 1,398.3 $ 2,551.8 $ - $ 6,161.1 Net investment income 202.5 102.6 128.5 20.8 454.4 Fees and other income 5.2 4.8 14.7 0.2 24.9 Total operating revenues $ 2,418.7 $ 1,505.7 $ 2,695.0 $ 21.0 $ 6,640.4 Net realized…
• FY2025 10-K: 48.9 37.6 86.5 Personal Lines 2,618.8 2,514.2 2,441.8 10.7 74.0 25.6 99.6 Total $ 6,732.9 $ 6,083.6 $ 5,912.6 6.4 63.5 31.3 94.8 YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2023 (dollars in millions) Gross Premiums Written Net Premiums Written Net Premiums Earned Catastrophe Loss Ratios Loss & LAE Ratios Expense Ratios Combined Ratios…
• WRB (W. R. BERKLEY CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: Auto 1,850,341 Short-tail lines 1,193,501 Other 222,930 Insurance 15,543,431 Casualty 2,260,596 Monoline excess 1,160,922 Property 409,127 Reinsurance & Monoline Excess 3,830,645 Total undiscounted reserves for loss and loss expenses, net of reinsurance $ 19,374,076 (In thousands) December 31, 2025 Due from reinsurers…
• FY2025 10-K: 64 $ 5,903,742 $ 8,289,106 Professional liability 673,774 1,582,133 2,255,907 Workers' compensation (1) 1,103,703 760,075 1,863,778 Auto 828,000 1,032,528 1,860,528 Short-tail lines (2) 438,813 826,036 1,264,849 Total Insurance 5,429,654 10,104,514 15,534,168 Reinsurance & Monoline Excess (1) (3) 1,670,518 1,748,988…
• CINF (CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …of our policy processing system. Personal lines activities are further supported by headquarters associates assigned to individual agencies. Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Segment The excess and surplus lines segment contributed net earned premiums of $698 million to 2025 consolidated total revenues, or 5.5% of…
• FY2025 10-K: …favorable than in 2024, as discussed below. Pricing precision and other initiatives to improve commercial lines underwriting profitability complement our business practices that continue to leverage the local presence of our field associates. Field marketing representatives meet with local agencies to assess each…
• HIG (The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to be businesses with an annual payroll under $20, revenues under $50 and property values less than $20 per location. The Company serves a broad range of small businesses, with an average written premium of less than $5 thousand per policy. Primary coverages provided include workers' compensation, property, general…
• FY2025 10-K: …and other operations include asbestos, environmental and other latent exposures not foreseen when coverages were written, including, but not limited to, potential liability for pharmaceutical products, silica, talcum powder, head injuries, lead paint, construction defects, sexual molestation and sexual abuse and…
• TRV (Travelers Companies, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: ( 917 ) 778-6000 (Registrant's telephone number, including area code) ______________________________________________________________________________ Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered Common stock, without par…
• FY2025 10-K: …approximately 11% of the Company's total claims and claim adjustment expense reserves. As discussed above, this line combines general liability and commercial property coverages and it has been impacted in the past by many of the same events as those two lines. The Company's change in reserve estimate for this…
• CNA (CNA FINANCIAL CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …3,317 3,411 819 88 - - 7,635 Future policy benefits - - - 13,448 - - 13,448 Deferred non-insurance warranty revenue 4,138 - - - - - 4,138 128 Table of Contents Year ended December 31, 2024 Specialty Commercial International Life & Group Corporate & Other (In millions) Eliminations Total Net written premiums $ 3,445 $…
• FY2025 10-K: …millions) International Eliminations Total Net written premiums $ 3,329 $ 4,880 $ 1,237 $ 447 $ - $ ( 1 ) $ 9,892 Operating revenues Net earned premiums $ 3,307 $ 4,547 $ 1,176 $ 451 $ - $ ( 1 ) $ 9,480 Net investment income 558 645 103 896 62 - 2,264 Non-insurance warranty revenue 1,624 - - - - - 1,624 Other…
• AFG (AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: ShortdurationInsuranceContractsLiabilityforUnpaidClaimsandAllocatedClaimAdjustmentExpenseNotSeparatelyPresentedMember afg:PropertyAndCasualtyInsuranceMember 2025-12-31 0001042046 us-gaap:PropertyLiabilityAndCasualtyInsuranceSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001042046…
• FY2025 10-K: …In our opinion, the consolidated financial statements present fairly, in all material respects, the financial position of the Company at December 31, 2025 and 2024, and the results of its operations and its cash flows for each of the three years in the period ended December 31, 2025, in conformity with U.S. generally…

Standard Personal Lines (reported)

• MCY (MERCURY GENERAL CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractAccidentYear2020Member 2022-12-31 0000064996 mcy:PropertyInsuranceProductLineCommercialPropertyMember us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractAccidentYear2020Member 2023-12-31 0000064996 mcy:PropertyInsuranceProductLineCommercialPropertyMember…
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:PropertyAndCasualtyPersonalInsuranceProductLineMember us-gaap:AllOtherSegmentsMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000064996 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember us-gaap:PropertyAndCasualtyPersonalInsuranceProductLineMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0000064996 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember…
• ALL (ALLSTATE CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: Milewise® Usage-based insurance product, available in 21 states and D.C. as of December 31, 2025, through the exclusive agency and direct channels, that gives customers flexibility to customize their insurance and pay based on the number of miles they drive. DynamicDrive® Mobile-based telematics application, available…
• FY2025 10-K: …by a reduction in the independent agency channel • Increased new issued applications in the exclusive agency and direct channels In Florida, we are not writing new homeowners business and are substantially complete with the non-renewal of certain policies. We may not be able to grow in certain states without…
• PGR (PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/)
• FY2025 10-K: …in the current and prior periods, are generally earned as revenue over the life of the policy using a daily earnings convention. Policies in force, our preferred measure of growth since it removes the variability due to rate changes or mix shifts, represents all policies for which coverage was in effect as of the end…
• FY2025 10-K: …100 % 100 % 100 % Within our Personal Lines segment, we often categorize our personal auto product policyholders into four consumer segments: • Sam - inconsistently insured; • Diane - consistently insured and maybe a renter; • Wrights - homeowners who do not bundle auto and home; and • Robinsons - homeowners who…
• THG (HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: , a critical growth lever for us. We have developed a robust, diversified and profitable Specialty segment that we believe represents a distinct competitive advantage, with nine dedicated businesses and 18 distinct product areas. We believe that this distribution of Specialty products, primarily through retail agents…
• FY2025 10-K: …at acceptable margins, and we continue to seek rate increases across many lines of business, as appropriate. Personal Lines Personal Lines focuses on working with high quality, value-oriented agencies that deliver consultative selling to customers and stress the importance of total account solutions, which is the…
• KMPR (Kemper Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …srt:MaximumMember 2024-12-31 0000860748 us-gaap:PrivatePlacementMember us-gaap:ExternalCreditRatingInvestmentGradeMember us-gaap:MeasurementInputDiscountRateMember us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel3Member us-gaap:MarketApproachValuationTechniqueMember srt:WeightedAverageMember 2024-12-31 0000860748…
• FY2025 10-K: …2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0000860748 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember kmpr:CatastropheLossesMember kmpr:SpecialtyPropertyCasualtyInsuranceSegmentMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0000860748 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember kmpr:CatastropheLossesMember kmpr:SpecialtyPropertyCasualtyInsuranceSegmentMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31…
• HMN (HORACE MANN EDUCATORS CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …using the original discount rate, of the expected net premiums or the expected future policy benefits related to new policies issued during the current period. (4) Interest accruals represent the interest earned on the beginning present value of either the expected net premiums or the expected future policy benefits…
• FY2025 10-K: …Annual Report on Form 10-K 107 NOTE 5 - Short-Duration Insurance Contracts (continued) Legacy commercial line reserves are analyzed based on industry information for asbestos and environmental liabilities. This information includes industry source information regarding incurred losses, paid losses and industry…

E&S Lines (reported)

• WRB (W. R. BERKLEY CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2017Member 2020-12-31 0000011544 wrb:CommercialAutomobileInsuranceProductLineMember us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2017Member 2021-12-31 0000011544 wrb:CommercialAutomobileInsuranceProductLineMember…
• FY2025 10-K: …wrb:ReinsuranceandMonolineExcessSegmentMember 2025-12-31 0000011544 wrb:MonolineExcessProductLineMember wrb:ReinsuranceandMonolineExcessSegmentMember 2025-12-31 0000011544 us-gaap:PropertyInsuranceProductLineMember wrb:ReinsuranceandMonolineExcessSegmentMember 2025-12-31 0000011544 wrb:InsuranceDomesticSegmentMember…
• KNSL (KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …on our 2025 gross written premiums of $2.0 billion, our current market share is approximately 1.5%. We believe that our exclusive focus on the E&S market and our high levels of service, including our ability to quote, underwrite and bind insurance policies in a timely manner through our efficient systems, allow us to…
• FY2025 10-K: …us. The termination of a relationship with one or more significant brokers could result in lower gross written premiums and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or business prospects. Our E&S insurance operations are subject to increased risk from changing market conditions and our…
• RLI (RLI Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …Line(s) Covered ​ Contract Type ​ Date ​ Point ​ Purchased ​ Retention * ​ General liability Excess of Loss 1/1 ​ $ 1.0 ​ $ 9.0 ​ $ 2.8 ​ Commercial excess Excess of Loss 1/1 ​ ​ 1.0 ​ ​ 9.0 ​ ​ 2.8 ​ Personal umbrella Excess of Loss 1/1 ​ ​ 1.0 ​ ​ 9.0 ​ ​ 2.8 ​ Commercial transportation Excess of Loss 1/1 ​ ​ 1.0 ​…
• FY2025 10-K: 2017Member rli:CasualtySegmentMember 2022-12-31 0000084246 rli:ClaimsMadeMember us-gaap:ShortdurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2016Member rli:CasualtySegmentMember 2022-12-31 0000084246 rli:ClaimsMadeMember us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractAccidentYear2022Member rli:CasualtySegmentMember 2022-12-31 0000084246…
• AFG (AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: ShortdurationInsuranceContractsLiabilityforUnpaidClaimsandAllocatedClaimAdjustmentExpenseNotSeparatelyPresentedMember afg:PropertyAndCasualtyInsuranceMember 2025-12-31 0001042046 us-gaap:PropertyLiabilityAndCasualtyInsuranceSegmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001042046…
• FY2025 10-K: …subsidiaries. Material Contracts: 10(a) Form of Amended and Restated Non-Employee Directors Compensation Plan 10(b) Deferred Compensation Plan Amended and Restated as of January 1, 2022 filed as Exhibit 10 to the Form S-8 Registration Statement (File No. 333-268292) filed by AFG on November 10, 2022. (*) 10(c) Annual…
• MKL (MARKEL GROUP INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …flexible policy forms and premium rates. The E&S market is accessed primarily through wholesale insurance brokers, which have limited quoting and binding authority. Our E&S business is written on Evanston Insurance Company, an Illinois domiciled E&S carrier licensed to do business in all 50 states and the District of…
• FY2025 10-K: …segment by regulatory market channel. The Global Reinsurance division, which entered into run-off in August 2025, is presented separately. U.S. Admitted Our U.S. business written in the admitted market focuses on unique and hard-to-place risks that must remain with an admitted insurance company for marketing and…
• AXS (AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED)
• FY2025 10-K: …in loss estimates attributable to two specific large claims within the E&S book of business related to the 2016 and 2022 accident years. Reinsurance Segment : The following table maps the Company's lines of business to reserve classes: Reinsurance segment Reserve class Casualty Specialty Run-off Reported lines of…
• FY2025 10-K: …axs:PropertyLineMember axs:InsuranceMember 2019-12-31 0001214816 us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2018Member axs:PropertyLineMember axs:InsuranceMember 2020-12-31 0001214816 us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2018Member axs:PropertyLineMember axs:InsuranceMember 2021-12-31 0001214816…
• SPNT (SIRIUSPOINT LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: Member spnt:PropertyCatastropheProductLineMember us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2017Member spnt:InsuranceAndServicesSegmentMember 2022-12-31 0001576018 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember spnt:PropertyCatastropheProductLineMember us-gaap:ShortDurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2017Member…
• FY2025 10-K: …spnt:SpecialtyProductLineMember us-gaap:ShortdurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2016Member spnt:ReinsuranceSegmentMember 2021-12-31 0001576018 us-gaap:OperatingSegmentsMember spnt:SpecialtyProductLineMember us-gaap:ShortdurationInsuranceContractsAccidentYear2016Member spnt:ReinsuranceSegmentMember 2022-12-31…

Investments (reported)

• WRB (W. R. BERKLEY CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …Investment returns are currently, and will likely continue to be, impacted by economic uncertainty, more generally, and the shape of the yield curve. As a result, our exposure to the risks described above could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, liquidity and financial condition. We have…
• FY2025 10-K: …the investment portfolio and the approximate duration of its liabilities (i.e., policy claims and debt obligations). The effective duration of the investment portfolio was 3.0 years and 2.6 years at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The Company's investment portfolio and investment-related assets as of…
• THG (HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: $ 247.0 Other investments also include interests in limited partnerships of $ 391.5 million and $ 395.0 million at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. E. OTHER At December 31, 2025 and 2024, the Company's exposure to concentration of investments in a single investee that exceeded 10 % of shareholders' equity…
• FY2025 10-K: …select and monitor each of our external managers, set asset allocation targets, oversee compliance with policies and guidelines, and monitor investment performance. Our external managers implement these targeted strategies and provide value over time through sector allocation and security selection. A primarily…
• CINF (CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …of investing activities, the company enters into investments in limited partnerships, including private equity, real estate investments and asset-backed securities issued by third-parties. The company's maximum exposure to loss with respect to these investments is limited to the investment carrying values included in…
• FY2025 10-K: …debt obligations at year-end 2025 matched year-end 2024. Our 4.9% ratio of debt to total capital (debt plus shareholders' equity) at year-end 2025 decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the prior-year ratio. Income Statement and Per Share Data (In millions, except per share data) Years ended December 31,…
• HIG (The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …on the paid family and medical leave product due to pricing actions. The increase in long-term disability was driven by higher current-year loss trends and a benefit in the prior year related to an update to the long-term disability claim recovery rate assumptions. Amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs…
• FY2025 10-K: …other structured securities, including securities that previously had an ACL and interest only securities, any yield adjustments are made using the prospective method. Prepayment fees and make-whole payments on fixed maturities and mortgage loans are recorded in net investment income when earned. For equity…
• TRV (Travelers Companies, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …guidance clarifies that internal and external training costs and maintenance costs must be expensed as incurred. The updated guidance is effective for the quarter ended March 31, 2028, and can be applied on a prospective, modified, or retrospective transition approach. Early adoption is permitted. The adoption of…
• FY2025 10-K: …U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government and government agencies and authorities, the Company was not exposed to any concentration of credit risk of a single issuer greater than 5 % of the Company's shareholders' equity. 146 THE TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED…
• CNA (CNA FINANCIAL CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …levels. The Company applies expected credit loss rates by pool to the outstanding 64 Table of Contents receivable balances. Changes in the allowance for mortgage loans are presented as a component of Net investment gains (losses) on the Consolidated Statements of Operations. See the Credit Losses section of this note…
• FY2025 10-K: …Net investment gains or losses are excluded from the calculation of core income (loss) because they are generally driven by economic factors that are not necessarily reflective of the Company's primary operations. The calculation of core income (loss) excludes gains or losses resulting from pension settlement…
• AFG (AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …dividends paid to shareholders (due primarily to special dividends of $6.50 per share in 2024 compared to special dividends of $5.50 per share in 2023). Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements See Note O - "Additional Information - Financial Instruments - Unfunded Commitments" to the financial statements . 35 Table of…
• FY2025 10-K: …A - "Accounting Policies - Managed Investment Entities" and Note G - "Managed Investment Entities" to the financial statements. The effect of consolidating these entities is shown in the tables below (in millions). The "Before CLO Consolidation" columns include AFG's investment and earnings in the CLOs on an…
• EG (EVEREST GROUP, LTD.)
• FY2025 10-K: Note 4 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Investments. The Board of Directors of the Company has an Investment Policy Committee that is responsible for establishing investment policy and guidelines and, together with senior management, for overseeing their execution. The Board of Directors of each of the…
• FY2025 10-K: …investment income of $2.0 billion in 2024. The increase was primarily the result of an increase of $91 million in fixed maturities, an increase of $71 million in income from limited partnerships and an increase of $20 million in income from other alternative investments. The limited partnership income primarily…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.