STEVEN MADDEN, LTD. (SHOO): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $49.02, STEVEN MADDEN, LTD. (SHOO) is priced for +22.4% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SHOO

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.4% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~6.8pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~14.4%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=15)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Steven Madden is extending a fast-fashion footwear brand into a multi-brand, multi-category platform, with Q1 2026 revenue up to $653.1 million and gross margin expanding to 46.3% on higher selling prices and the Kurt Geiger acquisition.
• The defining risk is tariffs hitting an overseas-sourced model, with Section 122 duties rising from 10% to 15% mid-year, compressing the trailing operating margin and leaving a price that no static valuation method currently supports.
• Watch the operating-margin recovery toward its through-cycle level near 12% and Kurt Geiger's contribution against the raised 2026 guidance of 10% to 12% revenue growth and $2.00 to $2.10 EPS.

Bull Case

The number that decides Steven Madden right now is the gross margin, and in the first quarter of 2026 it expanded to 46.3%, lifted by higher average selling prices and the mix shift from the Kurt Geiger acquisition. That single line is the whole turnaround thesis. The trailing operating margin had compressed under tariff and integration costs, which is why the static valuation methods read the stock as expensive, but the gross-margin expansion and the through-cycle operating margin near 12% say the depressed trailing year is the bottom, not the baseline. When the most important metric is moving up while the methods anchor on the compressed trailing figure, the gap is the opportunity.

The growth engine has shifted into a higher gear. First-quarter revenue jumped to $653.1 million from $553.5 million, and diluted EPS nearly doubled to $1.00 from $0.57, helped by a tariff refund and broad-based growth across wholesale, accessories and apparel, and direct-to-consumer. Kurt Geiger, the recent acquisition, grew 23% on a pro forma basis, and management upgraded its full-year revenue outlook for the brand to the low $600 millions. Steven Madden is using a fast-fashion design and sourcing model to extend a single footwear brand into a multi-brand, multi-category platform with international reach.

The balance sheet makes the platform durable. Net debt is only about $180 million, a fraction of a year's operating income, and the company has bought back stock at roughly 2.5% of shares a year. That conservative capital position lets Steven Madden absorb tariff shocks and fund the Kurt Geiger integration without strain. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to 10% to 12% revenue growth with EPS of $2.00 to $2.10. The bull case is a brand operator with a proven design engine, a margin-accretive acquisition, and a clean balance sheet, priced as if the tariff-compressed trailing margin were permanent.

Bear Case

Steven Madden is a fashion company, and fashion is a hit-driven business that the market is paying a full price for at exactly the moment its costs are rising. The price already discounts a recovery and then some, which is the disconnect a buyer has to confront. The static valuation methods do not reach the price on any frame: the asset, earnings-power, peer-multiple, and even forward-growth lenses all read the stock as richly valued against the trailing fundamentals. When no standard method supports the price, the market is paying for a margin and growth recovery that has to actually arrive.

The cost backdrop is the reason that recovery is not assured. Tariffs are a direct hit to a company that sources heavily overseas: management is building in Section 122 tariffs of 10% through July, rising to 15% thereafter, plus ocean and air-freight pressure. The first-quarter EPS was flattered by a tariff refund, a one-time item that will not repeat. Demand is uneven too: the company flagged its Gulf region business trending down close to 40% and cut its regional revenue guidance by $9 million to $10 million. Steven Madden's own filing names the broader pressure, noting that macro conditions "have impacted consumer spending patterns and overall demand for our product" across both wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels.

The Kurt Geiger integration adds execution risk on top of the cyclical risk. Acquisitions that lift gross margin through mix can also raise operating costs through integration, and the early quarters carry that drag. The valuation leaves no cushion for a stumble: with the trailing operating margin compressed to the mid single digits and the stock priced above what any static method supports, the entire case rests on the margin recovering to its through-cycle level while tariffs rise and fashion demand stays choppy. The balance sheet is clean, so this is not a solvency risk; it is a multiple risk on a discretionary brand operator whose price has run ahead of its currently-earning fundamentals and into a tariff headwind.

Valuation

Steven Madden is priced for a margin recovery that the trailing numbers have not yet delivered, and that is the crux of the valuation. The trailing operating margin compressed to about 4.8% under tariff and integration costs, while the through-cycle margin runs closer to 12%. Inverted on a normalized basis, the price requires the business to grow modestly and recover that margin, an assumption the model places within the range its history supports once normalized, even though the static frames read the compressed trailing year as expensive.

The method spread is unusual in that no family reaches the price on the trailing figures. The asset-based reads land well below the price against a book value of $12.70 per share, the earnings-power lens lands far below on the depressed trailing profit, and the peer-multiple and forward-growth reads also sit below the price. That pattern, where every static frame says expensive, is the market pricing in the margin recovery the methods do not credit. The honest read is that the price is a bet on normalization: if the operating margin returns toward its through-cycle 12%, the methods re-rate; if it stays compressed by tariffs, the price has no static support. The peer cohort here is mis-routed toward business-services names rather than direct footwear and apparel competitors, so the peer-multiple read is best treated as directional rather than precise.

Solvency is a clear strength that frames the downside. Net debt of about $180 million is roughly half a year of operating income, leaving ample room to absorb tariff costs and fund the Kurt Geiger integration, and the falling share count shows capital returning to owners. The risk is not the balance sheet; it is the margin and the demand. The first-quarter gross-margin expansion to 46.3% is the early evidence that normalization is underway, but the tariff schedule rising to 15% and the soft Gulf-region demand are the headwinds against it. What the buyer underwrites at this price is that the through-cycle margin reasserts itself faster than the cost pressures erode it.

Catalysts

Steven Madden's first quarter of 2026 showed strong growth alongside a rising cost burden. Revenue climbed to $653.1 million from $553.5 million, and diluted EPS nearly doubled to $1.00 from $0.57, helped by growth across wholesale, accessories and apparel, and direct-to-consumer, plus a tariff refund. Gross margin expanded to 46.3% on higher average selling prices and the Kurt Geiger mix, and the acquired brand grew 23% on a pro forma basis, prompting management to raise its full-year Kurt Geiger outlook to the low $600 millions.

The headwinds are tariffs and uneven regional demand. Guidance assumes Section 122 tariffs of 10% through July rising to 15% thereafter, plus ocean and air-freight pressure, and the company flagged Gulf-region business trending down close to 40%, cutting regional revenue guidance by $9 million to $10 million. Despite that, management raised full-year 2026 guidance to 10% to 12% revenue growth and introduced EPS guidance of $2.00 to $2.10, citing stronger outlooks for Kurt Geiger, Steven Madden, and Dolce Vita. The events to track are the operating-margin trajectory as the tariff step-up takes effect and the pace of the Kurt Geiger integration, since the valuation depends on the through-cycle margin recovering against the cost pressure.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Wholesale Footwear (reported)

• WWW (WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: 17 to license the Stride Rite ® brand. Sourcing Division: The sourcing division earns third-party commission revenue by providing consulting services related to product development, production control, quality assurance, materials procurement, compliance and other services. Multi-brand Direct-to-Consumer Division: The…
• FY2025 10-K: TEST ® footwear is distributed primarily through a distributor network with Shoemobile ® mobile trucks and retail outlets providing direct sales of the Company's occupational and work footwear brands to workers at industrial facilities and through direct sales arrangements with large industrial customers. 6 Other…
• CROX (CROCS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …on continued innovation in both materials and design of footwear, such as our branded Croslite™, LiteRide™, and Free Feel Technology™ materials. Research and development is a key part of our continued success and growth, and we rely on experts to develop and test our materials and products. Croslite™, our branded…
• FY2025 10-K: …provides a direct measure of our sales volume and can offer valuable insights into its market performance and growth potential. Average Footwear Selling Price Average footwear selling price is defined as footwear and footwear accessories revenues divided by footwear units. Management uses this metric and believes it…
• DECK (DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …into new categories. • Thoughtful expansion of our apparel and accessories businesses. HOKA Brand . The HOKA brand is an authentic premium line of year-round performance footwear, which offers enhanced cushioning and inherent stability with minimal weight. Originally designed for ultra-runners, the brand now appeals…
• FY2025 10-K: …existing orders, as well as forecasted sales and budgets by brand for both the wholesale and DTC channels, including consideration of the delivery requirements of our customers. Our systems and processes are designed to improve our product planning and forecasting, inventory control and supply chain management…

Wholesale Accessories/Apparel (reported)

• CPRI (Capri Holdings Ltd)
• FY2025 10-K: -wear, accessories and footwear through directly operated Versace boutiques throughout the Americas, certain parts of EMEA and certain parts of Asia, as well as through Versace outlet stores and e-commerce sites. In addition, revenue is generated through wholesale sales to distribution partners (including geographic…
• FY2025 10-K: …through a wide range of products. From haute couture to ready-to-wear, footwear, accessories and home decor, Versace delivers a unique lifestyle that welcomes customers in its elegant yet glamorous universe. Generally, Versace's haute couture retails up to $300,000, ready-to-wear retails from $200 to $13,000,…
• TPR (Tapestry, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …we continue to leverage various third-party digital platforms to sell our products to customers. 4 WHOLESALE BUSINESS Our wholesale business primarily includes major department stores, specialty stores, and third-party digital partners. We work closely with our wholesale partners to ensure a clear and consistent…
• FY2025 10-K: …strengths to move our customers and empower our communities, to make the fashion industry more sustainable, and to harness the power of an inclusive culture. Individually, our brands are iconic. Together, we can stretch what's possible. OUR BRANDS The Company has three reportable segments: • Coach - Coach is a global…
• GIII (G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …customers. Wholesale customers may charge back a portion of the advertising expense incurred against open invoices. Advertising programs are generally agreed upon at the beginning of a season. ​ Other Allowances . General allowances consist of price reductions granted to a wholesale customer and may relate to the…
• FY2025 10-K: …to its wholesale customers based on pre-defined credit criteria. Accounts receivable are net of an allowance for doubtful accounts. In circumstances where the Company is aware of a specific customer's inability to meet its financial obligation (such as in the case of bankruptcy filings, extensive delay in payment or…
• PVH (PVH Corp.)
• FY2025 10-K: …each affiliate's Calvin Klein business. Calvin Klein International Segment - This segment consists of the Company's Calvin Klein International division. This segment derives revenue principally from (i) marketing Calvin Klein branded apparel and related products at wholesale principally in Europe, Asia, Brazil and…
• FY2025 10-K: …Brands intimates transaction, the design, sourcing and marketing of a varied selection of women's intimate apparel under the Warner's , Olga and True&Co. brands. Our Heritage Brands Wholesale segment derives revenue primarily from the distribution and the sale of products (i) in the United States and Canada through…
• RL (RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …Ralph Lauren digital commerce sites offer our customers access to a broad array of Ralph Lauren, Double RL, Polo, and Lauren apparel, footwear & accessories, watch and jewelry, fragrance, and home product assortments, and reinforce the luxury image of our brands. While investing in digital commerce operations remains…
• FY2025 10-K: …showrooms in London, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Paris, and Stockholm. In addition, we utilize virtual showrooms, allowing our customers to experience and discover our product assortments in a retail setting remotely. 11 Shop-within-Shops. As a critical element of our distribution to department stores, we and our…
• COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …In addition, we earn revenue through licensing certain of our trademarks across a range of apparel, accessories, equipment, and home products. U.S. U.S. is our largest segment and provides apparel, accessories and equipment products through our Columbia, Mountain Hardwear and prAna brands and footwear products…
• FY2025 10-K: …("EMEA"), and Canada. The following tables disaggregate the Company's reportable segment Net sales by product category and channel, which the Company believes provides a meaningful depiction of how the nature, timing and uncertainty of Net sales are affected by economic factors: Year Ended December 31, 2025 (in…

Direct-to- Consumer (reported)

• CPRI (Capri Holdings Ltd)
• FY2025 10-K: …$ 13 million as of March 29, 2025 and March 30, 2024, respectively. The Company had credit losses of $ 8 million, $ 6 million and $ 5 million, respectively, for Fiscal 2025, Fiscal 2024 and Fiscal 2023. 7. Concentration of Credit Risk, Major Customers and Suppliers Financial instruments that subject the Company to…
• FY2025 10-K: …products are shipped to regional warehouses in the United States, Canada, Mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan and United Arab Emirates, largely supporting the Jimmy Choo retail and e-commerce businesses. Shipments to wholesale customers globally are made from the Netherlands and the United States, with some…
• TPR (Tapestry, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …customer, which may be at a point in time or over time. Control is transferred when the customer obtains the ability to direct the use of and obtain substantially all of the remaining benefits from the products or services. The amount of revenue recognized is the amount of consideration to which the Company expects…
• FY2025 10-K: …information. Refer to Note 17, "Segment Information," for further information about the Company's segments. OUR STRATEGY In the first quarter of fiscal 2023, the Company introduced the 2025 growth strategy, future speed, designed to amplify and extend the competitive advantages of its brands, with a focus on four…
• CROX (CROCS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to facilitate sales of slower moving products. Wholesale revenues are reduced by estimates of returns and allowances based on historical experience, and adjustments to our estimates are made when the expected value changes. We have arrangements that grant certain wholesale customers exclusive licenses, concurrent…
• FY2025 10-K: …analyst and industry reports - Changes in the macroeconomic environment. • We evaluated whether the forecasted revenue growth rates and market-based discount rate were consistent with evidence obtained in other areas of the audit. • With the assistance of our fair value specialists, we evaluated the reasonableness of…
• DECK (DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …existing orders, as well as forecasted sales and budgets by brand for both the wholesale and DTC channels, including consideration of the delivery requirements of our customers. Our systems and processes are designed to improve our product planning and forecasting, inventory control and supply chain management…
• FY2025 10-K: …prior period, were as follows: • Net sales of the HOKA brand increased due to higher global demand for an assortment of performance products across all channels. HOKA brand wholesale channel growth was driven primarily by global market share gains and benefits from new points of distribution with key partners. HOKA…
• BOOT (BOOT BARN HOLDINGS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …by primarily regional competitors. We estimate that there are thousands of independent specialty stores scattered across the country. We believe that we compete primarily with smaller regional chains and independents on the basis of product quality, brand recognition, price, customer service and the ability to…
• FY2025 10-K: …marketplaces. Each of our exclusive brands, which address product and price segments that we believe are underserved by third-party brands, offers high quality exclusive products to our customers and has historically achieved better merchandise margins than the third-party brands that we carry. 4 Table of Contents…
• GIII (G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …to Ross Stores accounted for an aggregate of 12.6% of our net sales in fiscal 2025. The loss of any of these customers or a significant reduction in purchases by our largest customers could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. ​ A substantial majority of our sales are made in the United…
• FY2025 10-K: …of a retail customer of ours could result in reduced business with that customer. We may also assume higher credit risk relating to receivables of a retail customer experiencing financial difficulty that could result in higher reserves for doubtful accounts or increased write-offs of accounts receivable. We attempt…

Licensing (reported)

• WWW (WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the value of its brands could be adversely affected. The Company's ability to remain competitive depends upon its continued ability to secure and protect trademarks, patents and other intellectual property rights in the U.S. and internationally. The Company relies on a combination of trade secret, patent, trademark,…
• FY2025 10-K: …factors successfully could adversely affect the Company's direct-to-consumer business, limit the Company's ability to develop and expand the omni-channel experience for customers or damage its reputation and brands, any of which may have an adverse effect on the Company's results of operations and financial position.…
• CROX (CROCS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to facilitate sales of slower moving products. Wholesale revenues are reduced by estimates of returns and allowances based on historical experience, and adjustments to our estimates are made when the expected value changes. We have arrangements that grant certain wholesale customers exclusive licenses, concurrent…
• FY2025 10-K: …31, 2025, our company-operated warehouse and distribution facilities provided us with 2.9 million square feet, and our third-party operated distribution facilities provided us with 1.0 million square feet, with additional area available based on inventory levels. Additionally, certain customers pick up orders…
• DECK (DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP)
• FY2025 10-K: …the outcome, these matters can have an adverse impact on the Company as a result of legal costs, diversion of management's time and resources, and other factors. Indemnification. The Company has agreed to indemnify certain of its licensees, distributors, and promotional partners in connection with claims related to…
• FY2025 10-K: …Warehouse and Distribution Center Lease 1,015,902 Goleta, California Corporate Headquarters Own 185,094 28 Table of Contents ITEM 3. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS As part of our global policing program to protect our intellectual property rights, from time to time, we file lawsuits in various jurisdictions asserting claims for…
• TPR (Tapestry, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …net of estimates for returns, discounts, end-of-season markdowns, cooperative advertising allowances and other consideration provided to the customer. Discounts are based on contract terms with the customer, while cooperative advertising allowances and other consideration may be based on contract terms or negotiated…
• FY2025 10-K: …by transferring control of promised products or services to its customers, which may be at a point of time or over time. Control is transferred when the customer obtains the ability to direct the use of and obtain substantially all of the remaining benefits from the products or services. The amount of revenue…
• CPRI (Capri Holdings Ltd)
• FY2025 10-K: …its business, may result in loss of revenue and competitive harm to our operations in regions or product categories where we have entered into such licensing arrangements. We rely on our partners to preserve the value of our brands. Although we attempt to protect our brands through, among other things, approval…
• FY2025 10-K: …in the contract. Such minimums are generally fixed annually, based on the previous year's sales. Licensing revenue is based on reported current period sales of licensed products at rates that are specified in the license agreements for contracts that are expected to exceed the related guaranteed minimums. If the…
• GIII (G III APPAREL GROUP LTD /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …companies and designers. In entering into these license agreements, we plan our products to be targeted towards different market segments based on consumer demographics, design, suggested pricing and channel of distribution. In addition to granting us licenses to produce and sell products, our licensors typically…
• FY2025 10-K: …and Tommy Hilfiger brands, both of which are owned by PVH. Net sales of products under the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands constituted approximately 34.0% of our net sales in fiscal 2025 and approximately 41.0% of our net sales in fiscal 2024. ​ The licenses for Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger products expire…
• COLM (COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR COMPANY)
• FY2025 10-K: …time of sale within retail stores and concession-based arrangements and generally upon shipment to the consumer with respect to e-commerce transactions. The amount of consideration the Company expects to be entitled to receive and recognize as Net sales across both wholesale and DTC channels varies with changes in…
• FY2025 10-K: …for our products, identify our company and differentiate our products from competitors' products. We own many trademarks, including Columbia Sportswear Company®, Columbia®, SOREL®, Mountain Hardwear®, prAna®, the Columbia diamond shaped logo, the Mountain Hardwear nut logo, the SOREL polar bear logo, and the prAna…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.