SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORP (SFNC): what the price requires
The current priced-in claim for SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORP (SFNC) is temporarily suppressed because the live engine record is unavailable. The dated report remains a snapshot, not a current market read.
Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SFNC
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | SFNC |
| Company | SIMMONS FIRST NATIONAL CORP |
| Current price | $22.93/sh |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | financials |
| Price-to-book | 0.97x |
The implied return on book is non-physical at this price-to-book and is suppressed as misleading. The rarity read below is the honest signal.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | +1.94σ |
| cohort percentile (of 119 peers) | 5 |
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 76% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is supported by asset-based and relative-multiple value, while earnings-power/growth-DCF land below the price. A value/asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 0.62x | 3 | justifies |
| Earnings | 5.11x | 2 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.66x | 1 | justifies |
| Growth | 1.62x | 1 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Asset, Relative Families that call it expensive: Earnings, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.3%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=7)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Bank Fair Value (P/TBV) | — | $23.08 | 0.99x | yes | TBVPS $14.01 × 1.65x (ROE (TTM) 12.5% / CoE 9.3%, g=5.0% (sustainable: 65% retention × ROE, 5% cap; not the terminal-growth assumption), credit 1.30% allowance/loans → ×0.94, NPL 0.80% → ×0.99) |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $34.80 | 0.66x | yes | P/E 10x (static sector reference · 2026-04), scenarios: 8.2x / 10.0x / 11.8x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA N/Ax |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $-10.60 | — | no | Stage 1: -200% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $31.98 | 0.72x | yes | BV/sh $23.65, ROE (TTM) 12.5%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $36.93 | 0.62x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $14.17 | 1.62x | yes | Rev $0.8B, growth 18% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 3.6x / 4.4x / 5.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Growth-Adjusted P/E | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | $39.19 | 0.59x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.89 × BVPS $23.65) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $2.42 | 9.48x | yes | EPS $2.89 × (8.5 + 2×-5.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $31.19 | 0.74x | yes | EPS $2.89 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 6.5% |
Deposit/float-funded balance sheet: debt is funding, not corporate leverage, and GAAP operating cash flow follows loan flows. Net-debt, interest-coverage, and cash-burn lenses do not apply. The solvency frame for a financial is regulatory capital and payout capacity (CET1, stress buffer, dividends plus buybacks against earnings).
Bullet Takeaways
- Simmons is a recovering, acquisition-built regional bank whose net interest margin expanded 89 basis points year over year to 3.84% in Q1 2026, more than doubling net income to $68.5 million.
- The key risks are dilution and goodwill, with the share count rising about 6.5% a year from deals and tangible book ($14.01) sitting well below stated book ($23.65), plus credit creep as net charge-offs reached 21 basis points amid 10% annualized loan growth.
- Watch whether the margin recovery and broad-based loan growth lift the return on equity durably, against the provisioning needed to cover the new loans.
Bull Case
The market is pricing Simmons as a below-book, low-return regional bank, and the recent results argue the discount predates a real turn in the margin. Net interest margin reached 3.84% in the first quarter of 2026, up 89 basis points from 2.95% a year earlier, as funding costs improved and fixed-rate assets repriced higher. That 89-basis-point swing is enormous for a bank, and it dropped straight to the bottom line: net income more than doubled to $68.5 million from $32.4 million, with EPS of $0.47 against $0.26. The fundamentals are inflecting faster than the multiple suggests.
Loan growth is broadening the recovery rather than concentrating it. Loans grew 10% on a linked-quarter annualized basis, with the company describing the growth as broad-based across geography and industry. A bank widening its margin while growing the loan book is compounding net interest income on two fronts at once, and Simmons did exactly that as net interest income climbed year over year. The earnings power that was suppressed when deposit costs spiked is returning as those costs roll down.
The valuation is where the contrast with the fundamentals is sharpest. The stock trades at $21.90 (June 28, 2026) against a book value of $23.65 per share, below book, while earning a return on equity around 12.5% and a tangible-book valuation that the model reads as roughly fair at 1.65 times tangible book. The asset-based and relative-multiple lenses both land above the price, with the relative read at roughly 0.6 times the value it computes. The market is valuing Simmons as if the depressed-margin period were permanent. The first quarter says it was not. If the margin recovery holds and loan growth continues, a bank earning a low-teens return on equity should not trade below the book value it is compounding.
Bear Case
The capital-allocation history is the reason to be careful, because Simmons has grown by acquisition, and acquisition-led banks dilute. The share count has risen about 6.5% a year, the signature of a company issuing stock to fund deals, and the balance sheet carries the residue: the 10-K describes goodwill as "the excess of the cost of an acquisition over the fair value of the net assets acquired" and details the machinery of accounting for "the loans acquired" on a level-yield basis. Goodwill is not earning capital; it is the premium paid for past deals, and a book value inflated by it overstates the tangible equity actually backing the stock. Tangible book is only $14.01 per share against a stated book of $23.65, which is why the stock can trade below book and still not be obviously cheap.
Credit is the second concern, and it is creeping. Net charge-offs ran 21 basis points in the first quarter, and the provision exceeded charge-offs by $5.5 million, partly to cover the new loan growth. Fast loan growth and rising provisions together are the early pattern that turns into credit costs later in a cycle: the loans booked in the growth push are the ones that season into losses. The allowance stood at $229.9 million against a $17.93 billion loan book, a cushion that has to prove adequate if the economy softens.
The valuation read carries the caution into the numbers. The earnings-power and growth lenses both call the price expensive, because the normalized profit, capitalized without growth, lands well below the price, and the growth-based future-market-cap read assumes a pace the bank has to keep hitting. Only the asset-based and relative lenses support the price. The honest framing is that Simmons is a recovering, acquisitive bank whose return on equity, around 12.5%, is improving but still modest, and whose book value leans on goodwill from past deals. If the margin recovery stalls, or credit normalization accelerates as the growth loans season, the return that justifies even a below-book price compresses, and the discount to book becomes the market's correct assessment rather than an opportunity.
Valuation
Simmons is valued the way a bank should be, on the return it earns on equity and the quality of the capital behind it. It earns a return on equity around 12.5% on a stated book value of $23.65 per share, but the more telling figure is tangible book of $14.01, since the gap is goodwill from past acquisitions. The tangible-book valuation model reads the price as roughly fair at about 1.65 times tangible book, which a low-teens return on equity supports.
The method families divide on whether to credit the recovery or the trailing profit. The asset-based excess-return read and the relative-multiple lens both land above the price, the relative read placing the price at roughly 0.6 times the value it computes, which is what makes the below-book price look like value. Against them, the earnings-power lens calls the price expensive, capitalizing the current profit with no growth to a value below the price, and the growth-based read also sits expensive on a demanding pace. The pattern is a value-and-asset-supported name where the cheapness rests on the asset base and the relative multiple, not on the trailing earnings power. The cleanest cross-check is the margin trajectory: the 89-basis-point year-over-year expansion in net interest margin is why the asset-based reads see value the no-growth earnings floor does not.
The solvency frame for a bank is regulatory capital and credit, not net debt; deposits are funding, not corporate leverage. Simmons funds itself with a growing deposit base and builds capital through retained earnings, though its acquisition history means the share count has grown rather than shrunk. The watch items are credit and dilution: net charge-offs at 21 basis points with provisions running ahead of them, and a tangible book that the goodwill from past deals holds well below stated book. What the buyer underwrites at a below-book price is that the margin recovery and loan growth lift the return on equity durably, while the acquired-loan credit and the goodwill on the balance sheet do not erode the tangible value the price is discounting.
Catalysts
Simmons' first quarter of 2026 marked a clear earnings inflection. Net income more than doubled to $68.5 million from $32.4 million a year earlier, with diluted EPS of $0.47 against $0.26, driven by a net interest margin that expanded 89 basis points year over year to 3.84% on improving funding costs and fixed-rate asset repricing. Loans grew 10% on a linked-quarter annualized basis, broad-based across geography and industry, lifting net interest income. The sequential comparison was softer, with net income down from $78.1 million and EPS down from $0.54 in the prior quarter, so the year-over-year recovery is the cleaner read than the linked-quarter trend.
Credit was the offsetting note. Net charge-offs ran 21 basis points and the provision for credit losses exceeded charge-offs by $5.5 million, primarily to support loan growth, while the allowance stood at $229.9 million against a $17.93 billion loan book. The events to watch are the durability of the margin recovery as deposit costs continue to reprice, and the credit trajectory as the recent loan growth seasons. For an acquisitive bank, the cadence of any further deal activity is also worth tracking, since it bears directly on the share count and the tangible book value the stock currently trades below.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Core business (reported)
- HOPE (HOPE BANCORP, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- FBK (FB FINANCIAL CORPORATION)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- FBNC (FIRST BANCORP)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- SBCF (Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NWBI (Northwest Bancshares, Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GBCI (GLACIER BANCORP, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- DCOM (DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.
Sources
Q1 2026 earnings, April 2026