SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $17.82, SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~6.3 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.
Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SAIL
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | SAIL |
| Company | SailPoint, Inc. |
| Current price | $17.82/sh |
| Composition | SaaS 56% / Maintenance 14% / Term subscriptions 21% / Other subscription services 3% / Services and other 6% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | revenue-multiple |
| EV / sales paid | 8.7x |
| Steady-state operating margin assumed | 25.8% |
| Must persist for | 6.3y |
The company earns no operating profit yet; the inversion runs on the revenue multiple and an assumed steady-state margin.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.9% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~1.9 years.
How unusual the bet is: elevated (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| sustained it ~6.3 years at this level | 27% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.55x | 2 | expensive |
| Earnings | 4.09x | 1 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.12x | 2 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.17x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=8)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $15.18 | 1.17x | yes | FCF base $0.2B, growth 24% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.2%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0 |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $15.89 | 1.12x | yes | P/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 8.0x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $12.12 | 1.47x | yes | Book value floor: BV/sh $12.12, ROE negative |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $10.91 | 1.63x | yes | Book value with convergence: BV/sh $12.12, ROE converges to ke |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $22.41 | 0.80x | yes | Rev $1.1B, growth 24% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 7.3x / 9.0x / 10.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0 |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | $13.17 | 1.35x | yes | Margin ramp: -14% → 22% over 7yr, rev growth 24% (input: historical growth; tapered) |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $4.36 | 4.09x | yes | FCF $200.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $15.89 | 1.12x | yes | Revenue $1.12B × sector P/S 8.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SailPoint (consolidated) | operating | enterprise | 0.9B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $390.8m |
| Interest coverage | -80.6x |
| Burning cash | no |
Operating profit is negative or near zero and the company has no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so years-to-repay cannot be computed honestly.
Bullet Takeaways
- The trajectory is the story: total annualized recurring revenue reached about $1,040 million in the latest quarter, up 28% year over year, with SaaS ARR up 38% to roughly $669 million. The mix is shifting toward recurring SaaS, which is the higher-quality revenue.
- At about $13.32 (June 28, 2026) the stock trades near 6.8x revenue, GAAP-unprofitable but already free-cash-flow positive, with about $391 million of net cash and no debt. The price inverts to roughly 22% revenue growth and a future operating margin near 26%.
- The fair-value methods bracket the quote closely: the revenue-multiple range runs about $11 to $20 with a base near $14, and most growth and asset methods land in the $11 to $17 band. This reads as supported rather than stretched, for a software name still in its margin ramp.
Bull Case
The earnings trajectory is what carries this case, and it points the right way on every line that matters. Total annualized recurring revenue grew to about $1,040 million in the most recent quarter, up 28% year over year, while SaaS ARR rose 38% to roughly $669 million, and total revenue crossed $1 billion for the fiscal year (web research). The direction inside the revenue is even more telling than the rate. SailPoint is converting a base built on term licenses and maintenance toward SaaS subscriptions, and the FY2025 10-K is explicit that revenue "may fluctuate" because of "the proportion of our contracts trending from term subscriptions and maintenance to SaaS subscriptions" (accession 0002030781-25-000011). That transition trades lumpy upfront term revenue for smoother, higher-multiple recurring revenue, which is the quality improvement a software investor pays up for.
The expansion economics under that growth are healthy. Dollar-based net retention rose from 110% in early 2023 to 114% by early 2025, meaning the existing base alone grows about 14% a year before any new logos, and the number of customers with over $1 million of ARR increased 78% year over year (accession 0002030781-25-000011). Over 90% of new SaaS customers land with a suite offering, so they enter at a higher price point with more room to expand (accession 0002030781-25-000011). That land-and-expand motion, with retention above 110% and large-customer counts compounding, is the engine that turns 28% ARR growth into durable revenue.
The cash and balance sheet make the trajectory self-funding. The company has set an explicit target of $2.1 billion or more in ARR by fiscal 2029, with over $800 million from AI-driven identity solutions (web research). At 6.8x revenue the price inverts to about 22% growth and a 26% terminal margin, a near-term pace the company is exceeding today, and the valuation methods cluster around the quote rather than above it, so the buyer is paying close to where the standard frames already land.
Bear Case
The most fragile assumption baked into the price is the durability of the margin ramp, because today SailPoint does not earn an operating profit at all. The price assumes the business reaches roughly a 26% operating margin over time, but the trailing operating result is a loss near $202 million and the current operating margin is about negative 18%. The entire gap between a story-stock multiple and an asset-value floor rests on a margin that exists only in projection. Identity security is a feature-rich, competitive category, and the same scale that lets SailPoint sell suites also forces continued spend on research, sales, and customer success, which is why earnings-power methods read expensive: the FCF-yield model, capitalizing today's cash generation with no growth credit, marks only about $4 against a $13 price.
The revenue-recognition transition is a second source of fragility precisely because it is also a strength. The 10-K warns that because contracts are "trending from term subscriptions and maintenance to SaaS subscriptions, our revenue may fluctuate and period-to-period revenue comparisons may not be" reliable (accession 0002030781-25-000011). Term subscriptions recognize a majority of revenue upfront, while SaaS recognizes ratably, so the headline revenue line can understate the true business momentum during the shift, or flatter it, depending on the quarter. A buyer underwriting 22% growth has to look through that noise to ARR, and ARR growth, while strong, is decelerating modestly quarter to quarter, from 30% to 28%.
The expansion the bull case relies on can also reverse. Net retention of 114% is good but not exceptional for premium software, and the 10-K is candid that the ability to keep selling to existing customers "will depend on a number of factors, including our customers' satisfaction with our products, competition, pricing, and overall changes in our customers' spending" (accession 0002030781-25-000011). In a tighter IT-budget environment, retention compresses toward 100%, large-customer expansion slows, and the $2.1 billion fiscal 2029 ARR target, especially the $800 million AI piece that does not yet exist at scale, becomes the assumption most exposed. Only about 39% of comparable fast-growers historically sustained the assumed pace for even five years, and SailPoint is asking the market to fund both the growth and the unproven margin at once.
Valuation
With no GAAP operating profit yet, the price is read against sales. At about 6.8x revenue, an enterprise value near 6.8x sales, the inversion solves to roughly 22% annual revenue growth and an eventual operating margin near 26%, computed at an 8.8% cost of capital holding a 25.8% terminal margin (64.5% gross margin times a mature-conversion prior). The near-term growth rate is below what SailPoint is currently delivering on ARR, so the assumption reads as within range rather than stretched.
The X-ray is unusually balanced for a pre-profit software name. The asset family anchors on a $12.12 book value per share and marks $11 to $12, the growth family lands at $15 to $17 (DCF perpetual growth $15, discounted-future-market-cap $17, margin trajectory $13), and the relative price-to-sales comp marks $16. Only the earnings-power family reads expensive, with the FCF-yield model at $4 because it gives no credit for growth. That clustering is why the characterization calls it asset-and-relative-and-growth supported, a value-tilted software name rather than a pure growth bet.
The honest read is that the standard frames land close to the price, so the buyer is not paying a large premium over where the methods sit. The variable that decides the outcome is execution on the margin ramp: sustaining 25%-plus ARR growth while the operating margin climbs from negative toward the mid-20s is what justifies the 6.8x multiple, and it is exactly what has not yet been proven on the income statement.
Catalysts
The catalyst cadence is the quarterly ARR and the path to profitability. In recent quarters total ARR moved from about $925 million (up 30%) to roughly $1,040 million (up 28%), with SaaS ARR reaching about $669 million (up 38%), and full-year revenue crossed $1 billion (web research). Each quarter's SaaS ARR growth and net-retention print is the direct readout on whether the recurring-revenue engine is holding its pace.
The strategic catalyst is the AI-identity expansion. SailPoint raised full-year guidance across metrics and set a target of $2.1 billion or more in total ARR by fiscal 2029, with over $800 million expected from AI-driven solutions (web research). That AI contribution is both the upside lever and the part of the plan least proven today, so progress on AI-product ARR is the milestone to track.
The context catalyst is the company's recent return to public markets. SailPoint was taken private by Thoma Bravo in 2022 at $6.9 billion and completed an IPO raising about $1.38 billion, the first pure-play cybersecurity IPO since 2021 (web research). The sponsor's remaining ownership and any lockup-related share supply are worth watching alongside the fundamentals. Watch quarterly SaaS ARR growth, dollar-based net retention against the 114% base, the trajectory of operating margin out of losses, and progress toward the AI-ARR target.
Sources: SailPoint fiscal 2026 quarterly results (investor.sailpoint.com, globenewswire.com, stocktitan.net); SailPoint IPO background (bankinfosecurity.com); SailPoint stock analysis (simplywall.st).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
SailPoint (consolidated) (reported)
- OKTA (Okta Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …and securely access the applications they need to do their most important work with more modern and secure experiences in the cloud and via mobile devices. Developers leverage the Okta Platform and Auth0 Platform to securely and efficiently embed identity into the software they build, allowing them to innovate and…
- FY2025 10-K: …(less any such adjustments or indemnification obligations). See Note 16 to our consolidated financial statements "Business Combinations" for additional information. We believe our existing cash and cash equivalents, our investments and cash provided by sales of our solutions will be sufficient to meet our short-term…
- VRNS (VARONIS SYSTEMS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …to accounts or disclosures that are material to the financial statements and (2) involved our especially challenging, subjective or complex judgments. The communication of the critical audit matter does not alter in any way our opinion on the consolidated financial statements, taken as a whole, and we are not, by…
- FY2025 10-K: …and President of the Company in accordance with Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 31.2 Rule 13a-14(a) Certification of Chief Financial Officer of the Company in accordance with Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 32.1** Section 1350 Certification of Chief Executive Officer and President of the…
- S (SentinelOne Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …alliance partners, MSPs, MSSPs, MDRs, OEMs, and IR firms. We provide our partners with our differentiated technology and platform to enable them to provide the best security service to their own customers. Our Singularity Platform offers our partners complete multi-tenancy and a superior level of management…
- FY2025 10-K: (PCAOB ID 34 ) 83 Consolidated Balance Sheets 85 Consolidated Statements of Operations 86 Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Loss 87 Consolidated Statements of Stockholders' Equity 88 Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows 89 Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements 90 82 Table of Contents REPORT OF INDEPENDENT…
- NET (Cloudflare Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …located. The Company generally does not provide deferred income taxes for the undistributed earnings of its foreign subsidiaries where the Company intends to reinvest such earnings indefinitely. Should circumstances change and it becomes apparent that some or all of the undistributed earnings will no longer be…
- FY2025 10-K: 1 million of proceeds from the exercise of vested stock options, and $25.4 million proceeds from the issuance of Class A common stock pursuant to the 2019 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP), which were partially offset by $283.4 million from the purchases of capped calls related to the 2030 Notes (the 2030 Capped…
- RBRK (RUBRIK, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …organization includes sales development, inside sales, sales engineering, and field sales personnel and is segmented both geographically and by the size of prospective customers. We also have dedicated sales teams for the public sector, including federal, state, and local government organizations. Our sales teams…
- FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:ProductAndServiceOtherMember 2022-02-01 2023-01-31 0001943896 us-gaap:TransferredAtPointInTimeMember us-gaap:ProductAndServiceOtherMember 2024-02-01 2025-01-31 0001943896 us-gaap:TransferredAtPointInTimeMember us-gaap:ProductAndServiceOtherMember 2023-02-01 2024-01-31 0001943896…
- ESTC (Elastic N.V.)
- FY2025 10-K: Company, enables its customers to transform data into answers, actions, and outcomes with Search AI. Our platform combines the precision of search with the intelligence of AI to help our customers and community solve real-time business problems, unlock potential value, and achieve better outcomes. Our platform,…
- FY2025 10-K: …apply the power of search to their data and solve business problems. The Company offers three software solutions built into its platform: Elasticsearch, Elastic Observability, and Elastic Security. The Company's platform and its solutions are designed to run across hybrid clouds, public or private clouds, and…
- INTA (Intapp, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …administrative at the consolidated level to manage the Company's operations, which are identified as significant segment expenses. Since the Company operates as a single operating and reportable segment, these significant segment expenses are the costs and expenses presented on the consolidated statements of…
- FY2025 10-K: …and advice across varied transactions and engagements. As we move further into these industries and continue to develop our solutions, we have uncovered additional markets that would benefit from the use of our solutions. As such, corporate legal and corporate development teams are new growth segments for us, as…
- FRSH (Freshworks Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements, and the reported amounts of revenue, costs and expenses and related disclosures during the applicable periods. We base our estimates, assumptions, and…
- FY2025 10-K: …software that organizations use to deliver exceptional employee and customer experiences. Our employee experience (EX) products include Freshservice, Freshservice for Business Teams, Device42 and FireHydrant. Our customer experience (CX) products include our Freshdesk suite of products. Our AI offerings, which…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.