Saia, Inc. (SAIA): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $356.73, Saia, Inc. (SAIA) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~10.6 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/SAIA

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 12.4% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2 years.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~24.8%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: elevated

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=14)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Bullet Takeaways

• At about $434.91 the market pays roughly 33x company-wide operating income, which inverts to operating growth held at the self-funding ceiling for about fourteen years. That is an elevated bet: only about one in seven comparable companies has sustained a pace like that for even ten years.
• The disconnect between price and the standard frames is wide. Book value per share is $97.97, the earnings-power value is $122, and the excess-return and residual-income marks cluster near $103 to $106. No valuation family reaches the current quote.
• The operative tension is timing: Saia is mid-build on a national terminal network that is compressing margin now (2025 operating ratio 89.1% versus 85.0% in 2024) in exchange for density and operating leverage management expects later.

Bull Case

Start with what the price is pricing in, because it is unusually explicit here. At roughly 33x operating income the market is underwriting operating growth held near the self-funding ceiling for about fourteen years. The bull case is that this is not a fantasy but a wager on a specific, visible build: Saia has been converting from a regional into a true national less-than-truckload carrier, operating 216 terminals after opening new facilities in markets like Marysville, Washington and Edinburgh, Indiana (web research). The FY2025 10-K states the strategy plainly, that the company plans "to continue investing in new terminals, in our tractor and trailer fleet and in advanced technologies" to "efficiently handle the increased volume we anticipate across both new and" existing markets, with the explicit goal of building "density in key markets to support profitable growth" (accession 0001193125-26-067030). Density is the entire LTL economics: once a terminal fills, incremental freight drops to the bottom line at high margin.

Now contrast that with what the fundamentals show, because the gap is the whole investment question. The current operating margin is about 10.7%, depressed by the build: the 2025 operating ratio rose to 89.1% from 85.0% in 2024 as new, immature terminals carried cost ahead of volume (accession 0001193125-26-067030). The bull reads that compression as temporary. Management expects a sequential margin improvement of 400 to 450 basis points from the first to the second quarter of 2026, above the historical 250 to 300 basis-point seasonal move, and believes a sub-80 operating ratio is feasible as the network matures (web research). If the OR moves from the high 80s toward the high 70s, operating income expands faster than revenue, which is the operating-leverage engine the price is paying for.

The balance sheet and cash generation back the build rather than strain it. Net debt is only about $74 million against $349 million of trailing operating income, interest coverage is roughly 24x, and the share count is essentially flat. Capital expenditure is already coming down, to $63.7 million in the quarter from $202.1 million a year earlier, as the heaviest terminal and fleet spending passes, while operating cash flow rose to $139.6 million from $109.1 million (web research). That shift, falling capex against rising operating cash flow, is exactly what you want to see late in an expansion: the spending that depressed margin is rolling off just as the density it bought begins to convert.

Bear Case

The capital-allocation question sits at the center of the bear case, because Saia has been pouring cash into a network whose payoff is still a forecast. The company spent heavily on terminals and fleet through 2025, and the immediate result was margin going the wrong way: the operating ratio rose to 89.1% from 85.0%, with salaries, wages and benefits up $91.9 million, only partly offset by $25.2 million of higher revenue (accession 0001193125-26-067030). Management is deploying shareholder capital on the bet that density and maturation eventually drive the OR back toward the high 70s, but that is a multi-year promise, not a delivered result, and the price already assumes it lands. Capital allocation that depresses returns today in exchange for a back-loaded benefit is defensible only if the benefit actually arrives, and the elevated price gives the company no room to disappoint.

The near-term operating data shows why the bet is not yet working. First-quarter 2026 operating income fell 4.8% to $66.8 million even on record revenue of $806.2 million, diluted EPS was flat at $1.86, and LTL tonnage declined 2.1% while revenue per shipment excluding fuel actually fell 1.2%, meaning more but lighter shipments (web research). A carrier adding terminal capacity into soft tonnage and falling per-shipment economics is carrying empty network cost, the opposite of the density story. If the freight cycle stays weak, the new terminals mature slowly, the OR stays elevated, and the operating leverage the price requires is deferred year after year.

The valuation leaves no cushion for that deferral. Return on equity is about 9.7%, essentially equal to the 9.3% cost of equity, so on an excess-return basis the business is barely earning its capital cost right now, which is why residual income and excess-return methods mark near book value at roughly $103 to $106 while the price is over $430 (June 28, 2026). The Graham number is $145, the earnings-power value $122, and even the most generous forward-growth methods land in the $270s to $320s, all below the quote. The price is a bet beyond what any standard frame supports, and it rests entirely on management executing a long network-maturation plan into an uncertain freight cycle. If the OR does not fall as promised, the gap between a $103 book-and-earnings anchor and a $435 price is the downside.

Valuation

The price is read on a whole-company basis against operating income. At roughly 33x company-wide operating income, the inversion solves to operating growth held near the 25% self-funding ceiling for about fourteen years, computed at a 12.6% cost of capital. The near-term growth rate is within Saia's own history, so the stretch is in the duration: the price needs the network-maturation tailwind to persist for well over a decade, and only about 14% of comparable companies have sustained that kind of pace for even ten years. The label is elevated.

The X-ray confirms no family reaches the price. The asset methods anchor on a $97.97 book value: simple and two-stage excess return mark $103 to $105, residual income $106, and the Graham number $145. Earnings-power value is $122 and earnings yield $103. The forward-growth and relative methods that use a higher exit multiple reach the $270s to $320s, still below the $435 quote. The DCF perpetual-growth model, using a 0% historical growth input, marks only $74, which flags how much of the price depends on future improvement rather than the current run-rate.

The honest read is that this is a quality LTL franchise priced for a successful, sustained network maturation that has not yet shown up in the margin. The variable that settles the valuation is the operating ratio: if it falls toward the high 70s as management targets, the gap to the standard frames narrows; if it stays in the high 80s through a soft freight cycle, the price has little support beneath it.

Catalysts

The swing catalyst is the operating-ratio trajectory. Saia reported record first-quarter 2026 revenue of $806.2 million but an operating ratio of 91.7%, with operating income down 4.8% to $66.8 million and diluted EPS flat at $1.86 (web research). The pivotal forward signal is management's guidance for a 400 to 450 basis-point sequential margin improvement from the first to the second quarter, above the normal 250 to 300 basis-point seasonal move, and its view that a sub-80 operating ratio is feasible as the network matures (web research). Each quarter's OR print is the direct readout on whether the density thesis is converting.

The network build is the underlying driver. Saia now operates 216 terminals after opening new facilities, the culmination of its shift to a national LTL footprint (web research). The leading indicators are tonnage and yield: first-quarter LTL tonnage fell 2.1% and revenue per shipment excluding fuel declined 1.2%, more but lighter shipments, while revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel rose 1.9% (web research). A turn in tonnage growth alongside maturing terminals would be the confirmation the price needs.

The cash-flow shift is the third item to watch. Net capital expenditure dropped to $63.7 million in the quarter from $202.1 million a year earlier as the heaviest build spending rolled off, while operating cash flow rose to $139.6 million from $109.1 million (web research). Watch the quarterly operating ratio, LTL tonnage and yield trends, and the continued capex normalization, plus the broader freight cycle that governs all three.

Sources: Saia Q1 2026 earnings release and 10-Q (stocktitan.net, sec.gov 8-K); Saia Q1 2026 results and outlook (minichart.com.sg, investing.com); Saia Q1 2026 earnings transcript (aol.com).

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Saia LTL trucking (single reportable segment) (reported)

• ODFL (OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …technology. In addition, we provide greater geographic coverage than most of our regional competitors. Our diversified mix and scope of regional, inter-regional and national LTL service, combined with our value-added service offerings, enables us to provide our customers with a single source to meet their shipping…
• FY2025 10-K: …with our customers. Generally, our performance obligations begin when we receive a BOL from a customer and are satisfied when we complete the delivery of a shipment and related services. We recognize revenue for our performance obligations under our customer contracts over time, as our customers receive the benefits…
• XPO (XPO, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …in our customer contracts, including fuel surcharge clauses and general rate increases; and we believe that U.S. demand for LTL services may increase when interest rates decrease or tariff uncertainties subside, as both dynamics historically correlate to a rebound in industrial activity. We cannot predict how future…
• FY2025 10-K: …("adjusted EBITDA"), which we define as income from continuing operations before debt extinguishment loss, interest expense, income tax provision, depreciation and amortization expense, legal matters, transaction and integration costs, restructuring costs and other adjustments. Segment adjusted EBITDA includes an…
• ARCB (ARCBEST CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: 444 0.1 % Weight per shipment ​ 1,086 ​ 1,105 (1.7) % Pounds per mile ​ 18.35 ​ 18.11 1.3 % Average length of haul (miles) ​ ​ 1,124 ​ ​ 1,126 ​ (0.2) % (1) Workdays represent the number of operating days during the period after adjusting for holidays and weekends. ​ Asset-Based Revenues Asset-Based segment revenues…
• FY2025 10-K: …​ 96 Table of Contents The following tables reflect the Company's reportable operating segment information from continuing operations for the years ended December 31: ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 2025 ​ ​ ​ 2024 ​ ​ ​ 2023 ​ ​ (in thousands) REVENUES ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Asset-Based ​ $ 2,734,871 ​ $ 2,750,134 ​ $…
• KNX (Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: Relevant Segment(s) Description Average Revenue per Tractor Truckload Measures productivity and represents revenue (excluding fuel surcharge and intersegment transactions) divided by average tractor count Total Miles per Tractor Truckload Total miles (including loaded and empty miles) divided by average tractor count…
• FY2025 10-K: …by reportable segment for the purposes of applying the ASC 606 guidance. Truckload The Truckload reportable segment is comprised of three full truckload operating segments that provide similar transportation services to the Company's customers utilizing similar transportation equipment over both irregular (one-way…
• WERN (WERNER ENTERPRISES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …intangible assets, $ 14.4 million of impairment on revenue equipment, $ 6.6 million of other revenue equipment costs, and $ 1.5 million relating to the removal of prepaid expenses, inventory, and other current assets. These costs are recorded in our One-Way Truckload operating segment within our TTS reportable…
• FY2025 10-K: 85 were company-operated and 315 were owned and operated by independent contractors. Our Werner Logistics segment operated an additional 27 drayage company trucks and 170 Final Mile delivery trucks at the end of 2025. We have historically grown organically, and more recently through a combination of organic growth and…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.