RAYONIER INC. (RYN): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $22.00, RAYONIER INC. (RYN) is priced for +1.4% AFFO growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.
Generated: 2026-08-08 · Exported: 2026-08-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/RYN
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | RYN |
| Company | RAYONIER INC. |
| Current price | $22.00/sh |
| Composition | Total Timber Sales 53% / Total Non-Timber Sales 11% / Total Real Estate Sales 35% / Lease Revenue 0% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | reit |
| Implied FFO growth | 1.4% |
| Price-to-FFO | 14.0x |
| FFO yield | 7.1% |
Solve inputs: computed at a 9.4% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied AFFO growth ~4.1pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.28σ |
| cohort percentile (of 105 peers) | 63 |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.33x | 4 | expensive |
| Earnings | 7.01x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.40x | 2 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.89x | 5 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=16)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $24.71 | 0.89x | yes | FCF base $0.2B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.2%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $16.67 | 1.32x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 80.6x / 83.6x / 86.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 26.69x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 14x), scenarios: 21.4x / 26.7x / 32.0x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 39.08x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | $226.53 | 0.10x | yes | DPS $1.08, g=8.7% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3% |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | $38.25 | 0.58x | yes | Stage 1: 20% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $16.73 | 1.32x | yes | BV/sh $17.72, ROE (TTM) 8.7%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $16.25 | 1.35x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $16.75 | 1.31x | yes | Rev $0.7B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 7.8x / 9.8x / 11.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $36.00 | 0.61x | yes | EPS $3.00, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=7.11 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $1.42 | 15.49x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.20B × (1−21%) / WACC 7.2% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $16.18 | 1.36x | yes | BV $17.72 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 8.7% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 5.7%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $34.59 | 0.64x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $3.00 × BVPS $17.72) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | EBITDA $0.10B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $3.14 | 7.01x | yes | FCF $216.6M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $2.27 | 9.69x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.19B (FCF $0.22B − SBC $0.02B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $96.80 | 0.23x | yes | EPS $3.00 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $0.68B × sector P/S 6.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $112.50 | 0.20x | yes | EPS $3.00 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $32.43 | 0.68x | yes | EPS $3.00 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Timber | operating | enterprise | $228.3m | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Pacific Northwest Timber | operating | enterprise | $83.6m | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Real Estate | operating | enterprise | $172.6m | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt (REIT basis) | $1.4b |
| Net debt / FFO | 2.93x |
| Fixed-charge coverage (FFO basis) | 14.8x |
| Funds from operations (trailing) | $473.0m |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 14.4% |
| Burning cash | no |
REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other.
Bullet Takeaways
- At about $20.98 the trust trades near 13x funds from operations and 16x adjusted funds from operations, a price that asks for roughly 0.7% annual growth in cash earnings per share. That is a pace Rayonier has already cleared over its own record, so the bar embedded in the price is low rather than heroic.
- The valuation methods cluster tightly around the asset and book-value families. Excess-return and residual-income land near $19, the Graham number near $37, and book value per share is $20.82, almost exactly today's price. The market is paying roughly net asset value for the timberland, not a growth premium on it.
- Leverage sits at 2.9x net debt to FFO with fixed-charge coverage near 14.8x, and the portfolio carries a low-carbon land option not visible in the timber cash flows: an 80,000-acre solar pipeline and rural acreage that sells at a demonstrable premium to standing-timber value.
Bull Case
Start with where the price sits against the valuation families, because the pattern is unusually clean for a timber name. Group the methods and the asset family lands at about 1.08x price (excess return near $19, residual income near $19, book value per share $20.82 (June 28, 2026) against a $20.98 quote), the relative-multiple family lands at 0.66x, and the growth-DCF family at 0.63x. Three of the four families say the price is at or below fair, and only the earnings-power family, which capitalizes a depreciation-gutted operating number, screams expensive at 5.68x. For a real-estate trust that is the expected signature: GAAP operating income understates a timberland business because the trees are carried at cost and the land is carried below market, so earnings-power looks thin while asset value carries the weight. The blended X-ray across eight applicable methods lands near $32, comfortably above the quote.
The inverted price makes the same point from the other side. At roughly 16x adjusted funds from operations the market is underwriting about 0.7% annual growth in adjusted cash earnings per share. Rayonier has delivered inside that band over its own eleven-year record, so the embedded assumption is within range, not a stretch. The dividend math reinforces it: the trust pays out of funds from operations, net debt to FFO is a manageable 2.9x, and fixed-charge coverage near 14.8x leaves room to keep distributing while it sells higher-value land. Book equity is growing at roughly 5.7% a year, which is the engine under the residual-income and excess-return marks that bracket the current price.
The optionality is the part the timber cash flows do not show. The FY2025 10-K describes a portfolio "well-positioned to provide land-based solutions to support the transition to a low-carbon economy," with expected demand for "solar farms, wind farms, and carbon capture and storage" (accession 0000052827-26-000036). That is acreage already on the balance sheet at timberland cost being optioned at multiples of it. The same filing breaks real estate into rural sales that "command a demonstrable premium above timberland value" and development parcels (accession 0000052827-26-000036). With total real estate already about 35% of the revenue mix and timber about 53%, the higher-margin land program is not a side bet, it is a third of the business, and it is the lever that turns flat timber cash flow into the modest per-share growth the price needs.
Bear Case
The competitive pressure on a timber REIT comes less from a rival firm than from the end markets that set log prices, and those markets are not in Rayonier's control. Demand for timber, as the FY2025 10-K states plainly, "is directly related to the underlying demand for pulp, paper, packaging, lumber and other wood products," and the Southern Timber segment that anchors the portfolio sells mostly into domestic pulpwood and lumber channels (accession 0000052827-26-000036). Structural decline in graphic paper, substitution away from packaging grades, and a housing cycle that governs lumber all sit upstream of the cash flows. The larger integrated forest-products owners and the other public timber trusts compete for the same mills and the same buyers, so when the housing cycle turns, every owner is selling into the same soft bid at once. Pricing power in a commodity log market is thin.
The land-monetization story carries its own fragility. Selling rural and development acreage at a premium to timberland value is real, but it is also finite and lumpy. Each higher-value acre sold is an acre that no longer compounds as standing timber, and the cash from a large solar or rural transaction shows up in one quarter and not the next, which makes the funds-from-operations line jump around and complicates the clean 0.7% growth read the price assumes. The 10-K is candid that while "the Company intends to continue declaring ordinary cash dividends, there can be no assurances as to the timing or amounts of future payments" (accession 0000052827-26-000036), and the trust has already trimmed the quarterly rate to reflect a larger share count.
Two numbers temper the asset-supported bull read. Return on equity is only about 8.7%, below the roughly 9.3% to 9.5% cost of equity the inversion uses, so on a pure excess-return basis the business is earning slightly less than its capital costs, which is why the residual-income mark sits a hair under the current price rather than well above it. And the share count has grown at roughly 14% over the measured window, partly from equity issued in the recent portfolio reshaping including the held-for-sale of the New Zealand Timber segment at a $710 million purchase price (accession 0000052827-26-000036). Per-share growth has to overcome that dilution before any of it reaches the holder, and at a sub-cost-of-equity return that is not automatic.
Valuation
The price is read on a real-estate basis, against funds from operations rather than an operating multiple, because depreciation on timberland and buildings makes GAAP operating income a poor anchor here. On that basis the quote sits near 13x FFO and 16x adjusted FFO, an AFFO yield around 6.2%, and the inversion solves to roughly 0.7% annual growth in adjusted cash earnings per share at a 9.5% cost of equity over a five-year stage. That implied pace is within Rayonier's own history and lands in the upper half of the REIT peer group on price-to-AFFO, so the bet the price makes is ordinary, not aggressive.
The full X-ray spans the families. The earnings-power family is the outlier on the cheap side, capitalizing a thin operating number at 5.68x price, which is the structural understatement a timber trust always shows and not a separate warning. Net debt to FFO of 2.9x and fixed-charge coverage near 14.8x say the balance sheet can carry the distribution while the land program runs.
The spread across methods is the information. Earnings-power says expensive, asset and relative and growth-DCF say supported, and that disagreement is exactly what you expect when book and land value carry a business whose reported earnings are depressed by non-cash depreciation. The conservative read is that you are paying about net asset value for the timberland and getting the higher-value land-monetization program, solar options included, closer to free.
Catalysts
The near-term setup is dominated by the PotlatchDeltic combination and the reshaped portfolio. Rayonier reported first-quarter 2026 revenue around $276.8 million with adjusted EBITDA up sharply year over year, citing stronger real estate and wood products contributions, and cash available for distribution of roughly $90 million versus about $20 million a year earlier (Motley Fool, StockTitan). Management framed synergy targets as on track. The board declared a first-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.26 per share, trimmed from $0.2725 to reflect roughly 7.5 million incremental shares issued in connection with a December special dividend (Rayonier IR, StockTitan).
The land-based-solutions pipeline is the catalyst with the most upside leverage. The company reported about 80,000 acres under option to solar developers and closed a 2,200-acre solar sale at nearly $23 million, around $10,000 per acre, in the quarter (Motley Fool). Each large solar or rural transaction is lumpy, so quarterly funds-from-operations and CAD will swing with deal timing, and the cadence of those closings is the number to watch. On the balance sheet, the quarter showed a cash position near $682 million against total debt of roughly $2.1 billion, with net debt to enterprise value around 18% (Motley Fool). Watch the pace of synergy realization, the rhythm of rural and solar land sales, and any further dividend adjustment as the larger share count settles.
Sources: Rayonier Q1 2026 earnings transcript (Motley Fool, fool.com); Rayonier first-quarter 2026 dividend release (ir.rayonier.com); RYN news (stocktitan.net).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Southern Timber / Pacific Northwest Timber (reported)
- WY (WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY)
- FY2025 10-K: …to consistently and reliably supply logs to our internal and external customers year-round. We sell recreational use permits covering approximately 2 million acres of our owned Western timberlands. WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY > 2025 ANNUAL REPORT AND FORM 10-K 11 Table of Contents 2025 Western U.S. Inventory by Species 2025…
- FY2025 10-K: …around the Section 232 tariff, which took effect in October. As the quarter progressed, ample product supply and seasonally softer demand led to lower composite pricing through early December. By quarter end, product supply decreased and demand improved as buyers replenished lean inventories. This drove price gains…
- JOE (The St. Joe Company)
- FY2025 10-K: …costs. Panama City Timber Finance Company, LLC and Northwest Florida Timber Finance, LLC are VIEs, which the Company consolidates as the primary beneficiary of each entity. 6. Leases The Company as Lessor Leasing revenue consists of rental revenue from multi-family, senior living, prior to the sale of the Watercrest…
- FY2025 10-K: 04 $ 21.0 $ 14.5 (a) Includes the sale of the Watercrest JV's senior living community property for $41.0 million, resulting in a gross margin of approximately 47.2%. Commercial and forestry real estate revenue can vary depending on the proximity to developed areas and the mix and characteristics of…
- FOR (FORESTAR GROUP INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …62% of our outstanding common stock. As our controlling shareholder, D.R. Horton has significant influence in guiding our strategic direction and operations. In connection with the merger, we entered into certain agreements with D.R. Horton including a Stockholder's Agreement (as amended, the "Stockholder's…
- FY2025 10-K: 1.1* List of Subsidiaries of the Company. 23.1* Consent of Ernst & Young LLP. 31.1* Certification of Chief Executive Officer pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. 31.2* Certification of Chief Financial Officer pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. 32.1* Certification of Chief…
- HHH (HOWARD HUGHES HOLDINGS INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: 31, 2025, inclusive of $ 17.0 million for the initial judgment and $ 2.8 million of related interest, and recognized the amount in Other income (loss), net in the accompanying Consolidated Statements of Operations for year ended December 31, 2025. Timarron Park On June 14, 2018, the Company was served with a petition…
- FY2025 10-K: …2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001981792 hhh:FloreoMember us-gaap:EquityMethodInvestmentsMember hhh:MasterPlannedCommunitiesSegmentMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0001981792 hhh:FloreoMember us-gaap:EquityMethodInvestmentsMember hhh:MasterPlannedCommunitiesSegmentMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001981792…
Real Estate (reported)
- JOE (The St. Joe Company)
- FY2025 10-K: …for the purposes of developing real estate and other business activities, which we believe allows us to complement our growth strategy, leverage industry expertise and diversify our business. We may partner with or explore the sale of discrete assets, such as our sale of a senior living community property in…
- FY2025 10-K: .6 Other revenue 10.0 9.6 10.1 Total real estate revenue 165.0 116.8 155.7 Leasing revenue 0.1 0.2 0.1 Total revenue 165.1 117.0 155.8 Expenses: Cost of real estate and other revenue (a) 83.5 62.0 77.9 Cost of leasing revenue (a) - 0.1 - Other operating expenses (a)…
- HHH (HOWARD HUGHES HOLDINGS INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and financial condition. In addition, we compete with other major real estate investors with significant capital for attractive investment and development opportunities. These competitors include REITs and private institutional investors. The concentration of our properties in certain states may make our revenues and…
- FY2025 10-K: …to pricing power in lease and vendor negotiations; increased ability to attract, hire, and retain the best local leadership and leasing teams; flexibility to meet changing customer demands; and enhanced ability to identify and capitalize on emerging opportunities. Our MPCs, including Floreo, our unconsolidated joint…
- FOR (FORESTAR GROUP INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …than those included in the expense categories reported on the Company's Consolidated Statements of Operations. All revenues and real estate assets are attributable to operations in the United States. Segment assets that are reported as total assets and capital expenditures are reviewed by the CODM and are presented…
- FY2025 10-K: …Austin Tampa/Sarasota Dallas Volusia County Fort Worth Houston Georgia Atlanta San Antonio Augusta Savannah Utah Salt Lake City/Provo/Ogden Illinois Chicago Virginia Northern Virginia Richmond Indiana Indianapolis Virginia Beach/Williamsburg Maryland Suburban Washington, D.C. Washington Vancouver…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.