Rogers Corporation (ROG): what the price requires

At today's price, Rogers Corporation (ROG) is priced for +19.6% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.

Generated: 2026-07-14 · Exported: 2026-07-16 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ROG

Headline

FieldValue
TickerROG
CompanyRogers Corporation
Current price$134.74/sh
CompositionNet sales - recognized over time 23% / Net sales - recognized at a point in time 77%

What The Price Requires (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

FieldValue
Inversion basiswhole-company
Operating margin needed12.4%
Operating margin (mid-cycle)12.3%
Margin expansion implied+0.1pp
Trailing margin (depressed year)-5.1%
Implied growth19.6%
Multiple paid22x mid-cycle operating income

The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.2% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.3pp.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

ReferenceValue
vs own history+0.28σ
sustained it ~5 years at this level44%
implied end-window share0%

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore requires assumptions beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

FamilyMedian price/FVModelsReads
Asset2.13x2expensive
Earnings2.59x3expensive
Relative1.96x3expensive
Growth1.44x3expensive

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=11)

ModelFamilyFVPrice/FVApplicableMethodology
DCF Perpetual GrowthGrowth$63.462.12xyesFCF base $0.1B, growth 2% (input: historical growth), terminal g 1.9%, WACC 9.2%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit MultipleGrowth$112.881.19xyesExit EV/EBITDA: 33.8x / 35.8x / 37.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative ValuationRelative$68.781.96xyesP/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 1.5x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus
Simple DDMGrowth——no—
Two-Stage DDMGrowth——no—
Simple Excess ReturnAsset$66.632.02xyesReference only (book value floor): BV/sh $66.63, ROE negative
Two-Stage Excess ReturnAsset$59.972.25xyesReference only (book value with convergence): BV/sh $66.63, ROE converges to ke
Discounted Future Market CapGrowth$93.261.44xyesRev $0.8B, growth 2% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.5x / 2.9x / 3.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair ValueRelative$0.00—noNegative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0
Margin TrajectoryGrowth——no—
Earnings Power ValueEarnings$60.182.24xyesNormalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.10B × (1−21%) / WACC 9.2% → EPV (no growth)
Residual IncomeAsset——no—
Graham NumberAsset——no—
EV/EBITDA RelativeRelative$37.693.57xyesEBITDA $0.06B × sector EV/EBITDA 8.0x
FCF YieldEarnings$52.072.59xyesFCF $70.1M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF YieldEarnings$46.642.89xyesSBC-adj FCF $0.06B (FCF $0.07B − SBC $0.01B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham FormulaEarnings——no—
ROIC-Justified P/BAsset$6.0122.42xyesBV $66.63 × (ROIC 0.8% / WACC 9.2%) (excluded from median)
P/Sales SectorRelative$68.781.96xyesRevenue $0.82B × sector P/S 1.5x
PEG Fair ValueRelative——no—
Earnings YieldEarnings——no—
Funds From Operations MultipleRelative——no—
Clinical Phase NPVGrowth——no—
MertonAsset——no—
V5 Mechanical———no—

Solvency

FieldValue
Net cash$187.5m
Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax)-2.38x (net cash)
Net debt / operating income (pre-tax)-1.88x (net cash)
Share count CAGR (buyback)-1.5%
Burning cashno

Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 12.3%); the trailing year was depressed.

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

Bull Case

Valuing an advanced-materials supplier is an exercise in separating the cycle from the secular trend, and Rogers sits at the intersection of both. The cycle is at a trough, which depresses trailing earnings, but the secular demand, electrification and sensing, is exactly where Rogers's materials win. The company's filings describe materials that serve "industrial (e.g., variable frequency drives), connected devices ... and wired infrastructure" markets where its products offer performance advantages, and the most recent quarter shows the recovery beginning. Net sales rose 5.2 percent to $200.5 million, gross margin expanded to 32.2 percent from 29.9 percent, and adjusted earnings jumped to $0.75 per diluted share from $0.27, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 580 basis points to 16 percent. A trough quarter inflecting on mix and cost is the start of the move the bull is underwriting.

The growth catalysts are concrete and tied to electrification. Rogers secured design wins in EV batteries and radar applications with an Asian OEM that begin production between the second and fourth quarters, plus additional automotive and electronics wins management expects to drive sales growth. These are the kind of multi-year, designed-in positions that, once in a vehicle or radar platform, generate recurring content revenue for the life of that program. As EV adoption and advanced driver-assistance systems expand, the content Rogers supplies per vehicle rises, turning a single design win into a compounding revenue stream.

The balance sheet lets management manage the trough from a position of strength. Rogers holds about $187.5 million of net cash with essentially no leverage, and it is shrinking the share count about 1.5 percent a year. That clean balance sheet is why the company could take its medicine in the downturn, including impairment and restructuring charges as it wound down underperforming manufacturing, without financial distress, emerging with a leaner cost base into the recovery. A materials specialist with secular electrification tailwinds, expanding margins off a trough, a pipeline of designed-in EV and radar wins, and net cash to fund the ramp is the recovery-plus-secular-growth combination the bull case rests on.

Bear Case

The moat-erosion concern is the heart of the bear case, and it shows up first in the company's own restructuring. Rogers recognized impairment charges of $71.8 million in 2025 tied to its curamik reporting unit within the Advanced Electronics Solutions segment, plus restructuring charges of $23.4 million as it wound down certain manufacturing. Impairments and wind-downs are the financial signature of a business whose competitive position in part of its portfolio has weakened, not strengthened, and they raise the question of whether the materials advantage the bull case assumes is uniform across the company or concentrated in a few product lines while others face commoditization and price pressure.

The valuation gives no room for that ambiguity. On trailing results the company is barely profitable at the operating line, and even normalizing to through-cycle margins, no valuation family reaches the price: the asset-based, earnings-power, and peer-multiple methods all read the stock as expensive, several at more than double their estimates. The price implies operating growth held at the self-funding ceiling for years, an elevated assumption that depends entirely on the EV and radar design wins ramping on schedule and at the margins the bull projects. Design wins are real, but they are also subject to OEM program delays, volume shortfalls, and pricing negotiations, and a single large customer pushing out a launch can move a quarter.

The end markets themselves are cyclical and concentrated. EV demand has proven lumpy and policy-sensitive, industrial markets turn with the broader economy, and the segment detail shows the pressure: the Elastomeric Material Solutions segment saw net sales slip to $349.7 million from $360.9 million and gross margin compress to 34.2 percent from 38.4 percent, a reminder that not every part of the portfolio is inflecting upward. With the stock priced above every method on the strength of a recovery that is one good quarter old, the bear case is that the secular story is partly offset by commoditizing lines and lumpy demand, leaving the price underwriting a clean, sustained recovery the trough results do not yet confirm.

Valuation

Rogers is priced as a recovery whose payoff lies ahead of the reported numbers. Trailing operating income is negative as the cycle bottoms, so the meaningful read uses through-cycle margins, and on that basis the price works out to about 28 times normalized operating income, implying growth held at the self-funding ceiling for roughly five years. The near-term rate is within what the company has delivered before; the demanding part is the persistence the price requires.

The methods are unanimous that the price is rich. No valuation family reaches it: the asset-based and earnings-power methods land at less than half the price, and the peer-multiple methods well below it. That pattern, every lens calling the stock expensive even on normalized earnings, is the signature of a price resting on a recovery and a secular growth story the static methods cannot yet see in the financials. The book-value-floor methods are explicitly reference-only here because the trailing earnings are trough-distorted, which underscores that the valuation is a forward bet, not a claim on demonstrated economics.

Solvency is the clear strength and reframes the bet as recovery timing rather than survival. Rogers holds about $187.5 million of net cash with essentially no debt, and it is buying back stock at roughly 1.5 percent of shares a year. There is no balance-sheet risk; the company can fund its ramp and absorb a slower recovery from cash. The price is therefore underwriting that the EV and radar design wins convert to revenue and that margins keep expanding off the trough, not that the company can survive, which it plainly can. The open question the valuation leaves is timing and durability of the recovery, with the clean balance sheet removing the downside-financing worry entirely.

Catalysts

The first quarter marked a profitability inflection off the trough. Rogers reported net sales of $200.5 million, up 5.2 percent year over year, with gross margin expanding to 32.2 percent from 29.9 percent and adjusted earnings of $0.75 per diluted share, up from $0.27 a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 580 basis points to 16 percent on favorable product mix and manufacturing cost reductions.

The forward catalysts are the design wins ramping into production. Rogers secured wins in EV batteries and radar applications with an Asian OEM that are scheduled to begin production between the second and fourth quarters of the year, alongside additional automotive and electronics wins management expects to drive sales growth in coming quarters. The signals to track are the timing and volume of those program launches, continued margin expansion as the cost reductions annualize, and whether the weaker lines, including the elastomeric segment that saw margin compression, stabilize. A clean ramp of the electrification wins would validate the recovery the price already credits; a delay would leave the stock expensive on still-depressed earnings.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Advanced Electronics Solutions (AES) (reported)

Elastomeric Material Solutions (EMS) (reported)

Other (reported)

Methodology Note

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

ROG Q1 2026 results · ROG Q1 2026 earnings call

View the full interactive ROG report on boothcheck