Rogers Corporation (ROG): what the price assumes

In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $125.52, Rogers Corporation (ROG) is priced for +16.2% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.

Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/ROG

Headline

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 12: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.

Solve inputs: computed at a 9.1% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.

How unusual the bet is: n/a

Valuation X-Ray

Every valuation family lands below the price. The price therefore sits beyond what those standard frames encode.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.2%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=8)

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Leverage and coverage are computed on normalized mid-cycle operating income (mid-cycle margin 12.3%); the trailing year was depressed.

Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Rogers Corporation makes engineered materials, high-frequency circuit substrates, power-electronics ceramics, and elastomeric components, that go into electric vehicles, radar, and industrial systems, so its demand tracks the electrification and sensing build-out rather than commodity volumes.
• The price is rich on current numbers: trailing operating income is negative as the cycle bottoms, and even on through-cycle margins the stock sits above every valuation family, implying growth held at its self-funding ceiling for years.
• Watch the EV and radar design wins converting to revenue against a clean balance sheet: the company holds net cash, recently expanded gross margin to 32.2 percent, and is counting on automotive and electronics wins ramping into production over the coming quarters.

Bull Case

Valuing an advanced-materials supplier is an exercise in separating the cycle from the secular trend, and Rogers sits at the intersection of both. The cycle is at a trough, which depresses trailing earnings, but the secular demand, electrification and sensing, is exactly where Rogers's materials win. The company's filings describe materials that serve "industrial (e.g., variable frequency drives), connected devices ... and wired infrastructure" markets where its products offer performance advantages, and the most recent quarter shows the recovery beginning. Net sales rose 5.2 percent to $200.5 million, gross margin expanded to 32.2 percent from 29.9 percent, and adjusted earnings jumped to $0.75 per diluted share from $0.27, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 580 basis points to 16 percent. A trough quarter inflecting on mix and cost is the start of the move the bull is underwriting.

The growth catalysts are concrete and tied to electrification. Rogers secured design wins in EV batteries and radar applications with an Asian OEM that begin production between the second and fourth quarters, plus additional automotive and electronics wins management expects to drive sales growth. These are the kind of multi-year, designed-in positions that, once in a vehicle or radar platform, generate recurring content revenue for the life of that program. As EV adoption and advanced driver-assistance systems expand, the content Rogers supplies per vehicle rises, turning a single design win into a compounding revenue stream.

The balance sheet lets management manage the trough from a position of strength. Rogers holds about $187.5 million of net cash with essentially no leverage, and it is shrinking the share count about 1.5 percent a year. That clean balance sheet is why the company could take its medicine in the downturn, including impairment and restructuring charges as it wound down underperforming manufacturing, without financial distress, emerging with a leaner cost base into the recovery. A materials specialist with secular electrification tailwinds, expanding margins off a trough, a pipeline of designed-in EV and radar wins, and net cash to fund the ramp is the recovery-plus-secular-growth combination the bull case rests on.

Bear Case

The moat-erosion concern is the heart of the bear case, and it shows up first in the company's own restructuring. Rogers recognized impairment charges of $71.8 million in 2025 tied to its curamik reporting unit within the Advanced Electronics Solutions segment, plus restructuring charges of $23.4 million as it wound down certain manufacturing. Impairments and wind-downs are the financial signature of a business whose competitive position in part of its portfolio has weakened, not strengthened, and they raise the question of whether the materials advantage the bull case assumes is uniform across the company or concentrated in a few product lines while others face commoditization and price pressure.

The valuation gives no room for that ambiguity. On trailing results the company is barely profitable at the operating line, and even normalizing to through-cycle margins, no valuation family reaches the price: the asset-based, earnings-power, and peer-multiple methods all read the stock as expensive, several at more than double their estimates. The price implies operating growth held at the self-funding ceiling for years, an elevated assumption that depends entirely on the EV and radar design wins ramping on schedule and at the margins the bull projects. Design wins are real, but they are also subject to OEM program delays, volume shortfalls, and pricing negotiations, and a single large customer pushing out a launch can move a quarter.

The end markets themselves are cyclical and concentrated. EV demand has proven lumpy and policy-sensitive, industrial markets turn with the broader economy, and the segment detail shows the pressure: the Elastomeric Material Solutions segment saw net sales slip to $349.7 million from $360.9 million and gross margin compress to 34.2 percent from 38.4 percent, a reminder that not every part of the portfolio is inflecting upward. With the stock priced above every method on the strength of a recovery that is one good quarter old, the bear case is that the secular story is partly offset by commoditizing lines and lumpy demand, leaving the price underwriting a clean, sustained recovery the trough results do not yet confirm.

Valuation

Rogers is priced as a recovery whose payoff lies ahead of the reported numbers. Trailing operating income is negative as the cycle bottoms, so the meaningful read uses through-cycle margins, and on that basis the price works out to about 28 times normalized operating income, implying growth held at the self-funding ceiling for roughly five years. The near-term rate is within what the company has delivered before; the demanding part is the persistence the price requires.

The methods are unanimous that the price is rich. No valuation family reaches it: the asset-based and earnings-power methods land at less than half the price, and the peer-multiple methods well below it. That pattern, every lens calling the stock expensive even on normalized earnings, is the signature of a price resting on a recovery and a secular growth story the static methods cannot yet see in the financials. The book-value-floor methods are explicitly reference-only here because the trailing earnings are trough-distorted, which underscores that the valuation is a forward bet, not a claim on demonstrated economics.

Solvency is the clear strength and reframes the bet as recovery timing rather than survival. Rogers holds about $187.5 million of net cash with essentially no debt, and it is buying back stock at roughly 1.5 percent of shares a year. There is no balance-sheet risk; the company can fund its ramp and absorb a slower recovery from cash. The price is therefore underwriting that the EV and radar design wins convert to revenue and that margins keep expanding off the trough, not that the company can survive, which it plainly can. The open question the valuation leaves is timing and durability of the recovery, with the clean balance sheet removing the downside-financing worry entirely.

Catalysts

The first quarter marked a profitability inflection off the trough. Rogers reported net sales of $200.5 million, up 5.2 percent year over year, with gross margin expanding to 32.2 percent from 29.9 percent and adjusted earnings of $0.75 per diluted share, up from $0.27 a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 580 basis points to 16 percent on favorable product mix and manufacturing cost reductions.

The forward catalysts are the design wins ramping into production. Rogers secured wins in EV batteries and radar applications with an Asian OEM that are scheduled to begin production between the second and fourth quarters of the year, alongside additional automotive and electronics wins management expects to drive sales growth in coming quarters. The signals to track are the timing and volume of those program launches, continued margin expansion as the cost reductions annualize, and whether the weaker lines, including the elastomeric segment that saw margin compression, stabilize. A clean ramp of the electrification wins would validate the recovery the price already credits; a delay would leave the stock expensive on still-depressed earnings.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Advanced Electronics Solutions (AES) (reported)

• ENTG (Entegris, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: Responsibility". OUR SEGMENTS Our business is organized and operated in two segments: Materials Solutions, or MS, and Advanced Purity Solutions, or APS. These segments collaborate to create new and increasingly integrated solutions, for example, leveraging the purification and handling expertise of the APS segment to…
• FY2025 10-K: …total cost of ownership; breadth of geographic presence; historical customer relationships; customer collaboration, service and support; and breadth of product offerings; after-sales service. We believe we compete favorably based on these factors. We believe that our key competitive strengths include our broad…
• CBT (Cabot Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …of operations using new technologies, which disruptions could make it difficult for us to meet our customers' needs. Moreover, in the case of capacity expansions, the cost of these activities could have a negative impact on the financial performance of the relevant business until capacity utilization at the…
• FY2025 10-K: Further, we attempt to pace our strategic investments, including those we are making to develop our battery materials business in Europe and the U.S. to meet market expectations for the growth in demand for electric vehicles, but, as has been the case with the transition to electric vehicles, market demand for and…
• IOSP (INNOSPEC INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …The segment has grown organically through our development of new products to address increased demand for fuel, focus on fuel economy, compatibility of renewable fuels, higher efficiency engine technologies and legislative developments, including tightening global emissions regulations. We are also 2 applying these…
• FY2025 10-K: …fuel efficiency, boost engine performance and reduce harmful emissions. Our Oilfield Services business supplies chemicals for drilling, completion, production and drag reducing agents ("DRA") which make oil and gas exploration and production more cost-efficient and environmentally friendly. Segment Information The…
• AVNT (AVIENT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …and/or biomaterial technologies. We also have what we believe is the broadest composite platform of solutions, which include a full range of thermoset and thermoplastic composites, reinforced with glass, carbon, aramid, and ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene fibers. These solutions meet a wide variety of unique…
• FY2025 10-K: …some of our systems, tools and resources use, integrate, or will integrate some form of artificial intelligence (AI), which has the potential to result in bias, miscalculations, data errors, and intellectual property infringement, and introduces additional risk associated with unauthorized access to our intellectual…
• SXT (Sensient Technologies Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …phishing techniques. It is also possible for a threat to be introduced as a result of our customers and third-party providers using the output of an artificial intelligence tool or other new and evolving technologies that unwittingly incorporate a threat, such as introducing malicious code by incorporating artificial…
• FY2025 10-K: …23 Item 6. [Reserved] 23 Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations 24 Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk 30 Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data 31 Item 9. Changes in and Disagreements with Accountants on Accounting…

Elastomeric Material Solutions (EMS) (reported)

• AVNT (AVIENT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …No customer accounted for more than 3% of our consolidated revenues in 2025. Research and Development One of our strategic drivers is to "Amplify Innovation," and we have substantial technology and development capabilities, powered by approximately 1,100 employees serving in technical capacities, approximately 120 of…
• FY2025 10-K: …link between large chemical producers (our raw material suppliers) and designers, assemblers and processors of polymers (our customers). We believe that our role in the value chain continues to become more vital as our customers increasingly need reliable suppliers with global reach, a local touch, and highly…
• IOSP (INNOSPEC INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …with developing customer needs. In addition, the business has developed further formulations in emollients, silicones and surfactants for the personal care, home care, agrochemical, construction, mining and other industrial markets. Fuel Specialties has continued to innovate, focused on bringing new technologies to…
• FY2025 10-K: …The segment has grown organically through our development of new products to address increased demand for fuel, focus on fuel economy, compatibility of renewable fuels, higher efficiency engine technologies and legislative developments, including tightening global emissions regulations. We are also 2 applying these…
• SXT (Sensient Technologies Corp)
• FY2025 10-K: …positions as of December 31, 2025. As part of its commitment to quality as a competitive advantage, the Company's production facilities hold various certifications, such as those under the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and those recognized by the Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI), including…
• FY2025 10-K: …we make progress, our ESG practices still may not meet the standards of all of our stakeholders. For example, many of our large, global customers have committed to long-term targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within their supply chains. If we are unable to achieve these reductions, or make similar…
• CBT (Cabot Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …that demand; ii) changes in raw material costs and our ability to adjust the sales price for our products commensurate with changes in raw material costs; iii) changes in pricing and product mix, which includes customer pricing as well as the mix of products sold or the region in which they are sold; iv) global and…
• FY2025 10-K: Further, we attempt to pace our strategic investments, including those we are making to develop our battery materials business in Europe and the U.S. to meet market expectations for the growth in demand for electric vehicles, but, as has been the case with the transition to electric vehicles, market demand for and…
• FUL (FULLER H B CO)
• FY2025 10-K: , the Middle East and Africa. Industrial adhesives represent our core product offering, which help improve the performance of our customers' products or improve their manufacturing processes. Customers use our adhesives products in manufacturing common consumer and industrial goods, including food and beverage…
• FY2025 10-K: Research and Development Our investment in research and development creates new and innovative adhesive technology platforms, enhances product performance, ensures a competitive cost structure and leverages available raw materials. New product development is a key research and development outcome, providing…
• NGVT (INGEVITY CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …the markings can be designed for varying levels of initial and retained performance properties. Customers We supply our road markings products to approximately 200 customers in North America through our own direct sales force. In 2025, our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 59 percent of the product…
• FY2025 10-K: …application. Additionally, we are well-positioned to meet increasingly stringent emissions standards worldwide. 10 Performance Chemicals Our Performance Chemicals segment is comprised of two product lines: pavement technologies and road markings. Our Performance Chemicals products are utilized in asphalt pavement…

Other (reported)

• ENTG (Entegris, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …the swap, and result in amounts being reclassified from other comprehensive income F-11 Table of Contents (loss) into net income. Hedge effectiveness is tested quarterly to determine if hedge treatment is appropriate. Realized gains and losses are recorded on the same financial statement line as the hedged item,…
• FY2025 10-K: …sanctions, tariffs, international trade disputes and any retaliatory measures; • geopolitical tensions or conflicts, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and tensions between China and Taiwan and between China and the U.S.; • cybersecurity incidents; • challenges in hiring…
• AVNT (AVIENT CORPORATION)
• FY2025 10-K: …Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. We own the majority of our manufacturing sites. We believe that the quality and production capacity of our facilities is sufficient to maintain our competitive position for the foreseeable future. The following table identifies the principal facilities of our segments: Specialty…
• FY2025 10-K: …avnt:November2026Member us-gaap:NetInvestmentHedgingMember 2024-12-31 0001122976 us-gaap:OtherNoncurrentLiabilitiesMember us-gaap:DesignatedAsHedgingInstrumentMember us-gaap:CrossCurrencyInterestRateContractMember avnt:November2026Member us-gaap:NetInvestmentHedgingMember 2024-12-31 0001122976…
• CBT (Cabot Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …change could be material. Other Matters The Company has various other lawsuits, claims and contingent liabilities arising in the ordinary course of its business and with respect to its divested businesses. The Company does not believe that any of these matters will have a material adverse effect on its financial…
• FY2025 10-K: 3(b) The By-laws of Cabot Corporation as amended May 11, 2023 (incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.2 of Cabot's Corporation's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2023, file reference 1-5667, filed with the SEC on August 8, 2023). 4(a) Indenture, dated as of December 1, 1987,…
• HXL (HEXCEL CORP /DE/)
• FY2025 10-K: …of aircraft. Defense, Space & Other The Defense, Space & Other market represented 39% of our 2025 net sales. The Defense, Space & Other market has historically been an innovator in the use of, and source of significant demand for, advanced composites. The aggregate demand by Defense, Space & Other customers is…
• FY2025 10-K: …Footage United States: Amesbury, Massachusetts Engineered Products Microwave and RF Absorbing Composite Materials 222,425 Burlington, Washington Engineered Products Engineered Honeycomb Parts 252,124 Casa Grande, Arizona Composite Materials Honeycomb and Honeycomb Parts 443,123 Decatur, Alabama Composite Materials…
• MTX (MINERALS TECHNOLOGIES INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …other comprehensive income, primarily due to actuarial gains, driven by a change in discount rates. In 2023, a net gain of $7.6 million ($5.6 million after-tax) was recorded in other comprehensive income, primarily due to a change in discount rates. 43 Actuarial losses for pensions will be impacted in future periods…
• FY2025 10-K: …significant amount of energy and, should energy prices increase as a result of such legislation or regulation, we may not be able to pass these increased costs on to purchasers of our products. We cannot predict if or when currently proposed or additional laws and regulations regarding climate change or other…
• IOSP (INNOSPEC INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: 10-K 0001054905 0 false FY DE http://innospec.com/20251231#PresidentAndChiefExecutiveOfficerMember http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherNonoperatingIncomeExpense http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherNonoperatingIncomeExpense http://fasb.org/us-gaap/2025#OtherNonoperatingIncomeExpense…
• FY2025 10-K: …2023-12-31 0001054905 iosp:StockEquivalentUnitsMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001054905 us-gaap:PensionPlansDefinedBenefitMember iosp:UkPlanMember 2023-12-31 0001054905 country:GB iosp:UkPlanMember us-gaap:OtherNonoperatingIncomeExpenseMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001054905 iosp:UnrecognizedTaxBenefitsMember…
• ESI (Element Solutions Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …environments, including tax, data handling, privacy, intellectual property, consumer protection, environmental and antitrust laws; • adverse tax consequences, including as a result of changes in taxation and regulatory requirements, transfer pricing practices involving our foreign operations, and additional…
• FY2025 10-K: …adopted in several other countries; the E.U. Poison Center Notification (PCN); the U.S. Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA); the U.S. and E.U. conflict minerals regulations; as well as the emerging ESG regulations in the E.U. and globally, such as the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), its…
• FUL (FULLER H B CO)
• FY2025 10-K: Germany Frankfurt 1 - Vilbeler Germany Pirmasens Philippines Manila Mexico Coahuila 1 United States North Carolina - Charlotte United Arab Emirates Ras Al-Khaimah 1 United Kingdom Kirkby in Ashfield United Kingdom Lymington United Kingdom Mansfield 1 United Kingdom Staffordshire United States Michigan - Michigan…
• FY2025 10-K: …year ended December 2, 2017. 4.5 Second Supplemental Indenture, dated October 20, 2020, between H.B. Fuller Company and U.S. Bank National Association, as Trustee, relating to the 4.250% Notes due 2028 Exhibit 4.1 to the Current Report on Form 8-K dated October 20, 2020. 4.6 Form of Global Note representing the…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.