RYMAN HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES, INC. (RHP): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-08-08 · Exported: 2026-08-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/RHP

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	RHP
Company	RYMAN HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES, INC.
Current price	$127.62/sh
Composition	Hotel group rooms 21% / Hotel transient rooms 10% / Hotel food and beverage - banquets 26% / Hotel food and beverage - outlets 12% / Hotel other 14% / Entertainment admissions/ticketing 7% / Entertainment food and beverage 6% / Entertainment retail and other 4%

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	reit
Implied FFO growth	6.6%
Price-to-FFO	15.4x
FFO yield	6.5%

Solve inputs: computed at a 11% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied AFFO growth ~3.5pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~0%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Reference	Value
vs own history	-0.35σ
cohort percentile (of 105 peers)	59
sustained it ~5 years at this level	65%

Valuation X-Ray

Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	2.33x	4	expensive
Earnings	2.23x	5	expensive
Relative	1.29x	3	expensive
Growth	0.99x	4	justifies

Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=16)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$389.26	0.33x	yes	FCF base $0.7B, growth 11% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 6.7%, 6yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$173.67	0.73x	yes	Exit EV/EBITDA: 12.5x / 14.5x / 16.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	—	—	no	P/E 27.18x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 15x), scenarios: 22.6x / 27.2x / 31.7x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 20x
Simple DDM	Growth	—	—	no	—
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	$102.31	1.25x	yes	Stage 1: 7% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$42.98	2.97x	yes	BV/sh $11.61, ROE (TTM) 34.2%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$87.80	1.45x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$99.87	1.28x	yes	Rev $2.7B, growth 11% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.5x / 3.0x / 3.5x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair Value	Relative	$99.12	1.29x	yes	FFO/share $8.26, growth 7% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 9y median), PEG=4.66 (Overvalued)
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	$23.29	5.48x	yes	Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.38B × (1−9%) / WACC 6.7% → EPV (no growth)
Residual Income	Asset	$66.78	1.91x	yes	BV $11.61 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 34.2% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr
Graham Number	Asset	$46.46	2.75x	yes	√(22.5 × FFO/share $8.26 × BVPS $11.61) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	—	—	no	EBITDA $0.80B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$57.18	2.23x	yes	FCF $661.7M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$54.73	2.33x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.65B (FCF $0.66B − SBC $0.01B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$154.23	0.83x	yes	FFO/share $8.26 × (8.5 + 2×6.9%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	$5.09	25.07x	yes	BV $11.61 × (ROIC 2.9% / WACC 6.7%) (excluded from median)
P/Sales Sector	Relative	—	—	no	Revenue $2.65B × sector P/S 6.0x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	$85.36	1.50x	yes	FFO/share $8.26 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 6.9% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 9y median)) → PE 10.3x
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$89.30	1.43x	yes	FFO/share $8.26 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	$116.22	1.10x	yes	FFO/share $8.26 × 14.1x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $0.52B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 63M
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.

Unit	Role	Valuation basis	Revenue	Reported profit	Value evidence	Status
Hospitality	operating	enterprise	2.1B reported-currency	—	withheld	unresolved no unit value
Entertainment	operating	enterprise	0.4B reported-currency	—	withheld	unresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Field	Value
Net debt (REIT basis)	$3.5b
Net debt / FFO	6.80x
Fixed-charge coverage (FFO basis)	3.1x
Funds from operations (trailing)	$521.5m
Share count CAGR (dilution)	5.3%
Burning cash	no

REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other.

Bullet Takeaways

• Ryman is a hospitality REIT built on large group-meeting hotels under the Gaylord brand, paired with a smaller Entertainment arm, the Opry Entertainment Group, whose assets include the Grand Ole Opry and the Ryman Auditorium, so its cash flow is driven by booking convention groups years in advance rather than nightly leisure demand.
• The price carries financial risk in the balance sheet: net debt sits at roughly 6.8 times funds from operations with fixed-charge coverage near 3.1 times, so a downturn in group bookings would press a leveraged structure rather than a conservatively financed one.
• Watch the back half of 2026, when the Gaylord Texan room renovation completes in August; management raised full-year guidance and expects RevPAR growth to accelerate as renovations finish, making the renovation cadence the near-term swing factor.

Bull Case

The market is paying about 16 times adjusted funds from operations for Ryman, which embeds an assumption that the trust grows that cash measure roughly 6.6 percent a year. The fundamentals it just reported are running ahead of the steady-state version of that bet. First-quarter consolidated revenue was a record $664.6 million, with same-store Hospitality revenue of $511.5 million and same-store RevPAR up 2.1 percent to about $188, Total RevPAR up 2.8 percent to about $498. Management raised full-year guidance across the board, lifting Adjusted EBITDAre toward $883 million and Adjusted FFO toward $592 million. The price assumes growth; the prints and the raised guidance are delivering it.

What makes the bet more defensible than a typical hotel owner is the booking model. These are convention-scale properties where corporate and association groups commit rooms and meeting space well ahead of the stay, which smooths demand against the leisure cycle. The FY2025 10-K describes the Entertainment side as the Opry Entertainment Group, "the Grand Ole Opry, the legendary weekly showcase of country music's finest performers for 100 years; the Ryman Auditorium, the storied live music venue", a set of irreplaceable assets that monetize the same Nashville-centered brand the hotels trade on. Even where leisure-leaning properties softened, the core group business held: the filing notes the decline at Gaylord Opryland was a modest 2.3 percent in total revenue, not a collapse.

The forward setup is a self-help story the market can underwrite. Several flagship properties, Gaylord Texan, Gaylord National, and the JW Marriott Hill Country, dragged the quarter because they were mid-renovation, and management expects same-store RevPAR growth to accelerate as those rooms come back online, with the Gaylord Texan renovation completing in August. The implied growth the price requires sits within what the trust has historically delivered and in the upper half of its REIT peer group, but a wave of completed renovations into a strengthening corporate-group calendar is exactly the kind of near-term driver that turns an in-range assumption into a beat.

Bear Case

The bear case starts with how Ryman funds itself and what management chooses to do with capital. Net debt is about 6.8 times funds from operations, and fixed-charge coverage of roughly 3.1 times leaves a structure that works in good times and tightens quickly in bad ones. The trust is also a serial issuer of equity: the share count has been growing at about 5.3 percent a year, so per-share growth in funds from operations has to clear that dilution before a holder sees any of it. The 10-K's debt language shows a balance sheet that is actively managed rather than paid down, citing refinanced Term Loan B margins of 2.00 percent over SOFR under an incremental agreement. Leverage plus dilution means the equity is a geared claim on a cyclical asset, and the price gives little room for that gearing to work against the holder.

The cyclicality is real even with the group-booking smoothing. The most recent quarter showed the Entertainment segment revenue down 11.6 percent and its Adjusted EBITDAre down 25.1 percent, and three flagship Gaylord properties posted year-over-year declines in revenue and margin. Renovations explain part of that, but a REIT priced in the upper half of its cohort on adjusted funds from operations is priced for the renovations to pay off on schedule and for group demand to stay firm; any slip on either turns the premium into a liability. Peer disclosure underscores that the supply backdrop is not benign. Host Hotels' FY2025 10-K notes that conversions of independent properties "to upscale or luxury brands caused an increase in the supply for upscale and luxury properties in 2025", adding rooms in exactly the segment Ryman competes in.

The valuation methods split on whether the price is earned, and the split is the bear's evidence. The asset-based and earnings-power lenses read the stock as expensive, with earnings-power value landing far below the price and the asset methods clustered well under it; only the relative-multiple and growth-cash-flow methods reach the price, and they get there by crediting the growth the trust is assuming for itself. When the conservative, demonstrated-value methods say expensive and only the growth-dependent ones say fair, the price is leaning on the part of the thesis that has to be delivered, not the part that is already in the ground. A leveraged, equity-issuing REIT priced on growth it must still produce is the cleanest version of a cyclical bet wearing a defensive label.

Valuation

A real-estate trust is read on its adjusted funds from operations, cash earnings plus property depreciation, less the maintenance capital that keeps the buildings leasable, not on an operating multiple. At about 16 times that measure, Ryman's price implies it grows adjusted funds from operations roughly 6.6 percent a year. That pace is within what the trust has delivered before, and it sits in the upper half of the REIT peer group on price-to-adjusted-funds-from-operations, so the bet is not extreme, but it is not a discount either.

The methods divide cleanly along the line between demonstrated value and assumed growth. The asset-based and earnings-power lenses read the price as rich: earnings-power value lands well below the price, and the asset methods cluster under it. The relative-multiple and growth-cash-flow methods are the ones that reach the price, which is the signature of a name whose valuation rests on the growth it is forecast to produce rather than on the value already demonstrated. That is a coherent way to value a REIT with real growth drivers, but it means the margin for error lives entirely in the growth assumption.

Solvency is where the growth bet meets its constraint. Net debt is about 6.8 times funds from operations, with fixed-charge coverage near 3.1 times, and the share count is growing about 5.3 percent a year, so the trust funds expansion partly through new equity. The raised 2026 guidance, Adjusted EBITDAre toward $883 million and Adjusted FFO toward $592 million, is what services that structure comfortably; a shortfall against it is what would make the leverage and the dilution bite. The price is underwriting both the renovation-led acceleration and continued access to capital on terms that keep coverage where it is.

Catalysts

The first quarter set a positive tone and management used it to raise the year. Ryman reported record first-quarter consolidated revenue of $664.6 million, record consolidated net income of $69.4 million, and record Adjusted EBITDAre of $219.3 million, with same-store RevPAR up 2.1 percent and Total RevPAR up 2.8 percent. On the back of that, the company lifted midpoints for same-store RevPAR and Total RevPAR growth and raised consolidated Adjusted EBITDAre to $883.0 million, net income to $275.0 million, and Adjusted FFO to $592.1 million.

The near-term swing factor is the renovation calendar. The Entertainment segment was weak, with revenue down 11.6 percent and Adjusted EBITDAre down 25.1 percent, and three flagship Gaylord properties posted year-over-year revenue and margin declines, much of it tied to rooms out of service for renovation. Management expects same-store RevPAR growth to accelerate through the year as those projects finish, specifically pointing to the Gaylord Texan room renovation completing in August and a strengthening corporate-group mix. The next several quarters test whether the completed renovations and the group calendar deliver the acceleration the raised guidance now assumes.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Hospitality (reported)

• HST (HOST HOTELS & RESORTS, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: Venture. We own a 49.9% interest in a joint venture with R/V-C Association that owns the 650-room Fort Lauderdale Marriott Harbor Beach Resort & Spa in Florida. The joint venture has a $176 million mortgage loan outstanding on the hotel that is non-recourse to us. Asia/Pacific Joint Venture. We have a 25% interest in…
• FY2025 10-K: …Nominating, Governance and Corporate Responsibility Committee. Copies of these charters and policies, Host Inc.'s Bylaws and Host L.P.'s partnership agreement also are available in print to stockholders and unitholders upon request to Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc., 4747 Bethesda Ave, Suite 1300, Bethesda, Maryland,…
• PK (Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …for the tax-related obligations and liabilities of each business with the appropriate company. Competition The lodging industry is highly competitive. Our hotels compete with other hotels for guests on the basis of several factors, including the attractiveness of the facility, location, level of service, quality of…
• FY2025 10-K: …increase our cost of sales for group and convention business and materially adversely affect our revenues and profitability. We also face competition for the acquisition of hotels from other REITs, private equity investors, institutional pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and numerous local, regional and national…
• DRH (DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY CO)
• FY2025 10-K: …Our entire business is related to the lodging industry. The performance of the lodging industry is highly cyclical and has historically been linked to key macroeconomic indicators, such as U.S. GDP growth, employment, personal discretionary spending levels, corporate earnings and investment, foreign exchange rates…
• FY2025 10-K: …hotel that is directly owned by a TRS. The following chart shows our corporate structure as of the date of this report: -9- Table of Contents Competition The hotel industry is highly competitive and our hotels are subject to competition from other hotels for guests. Competition is based on a number of factors,…
• PEB (PEBBLEBROOK HOTEL TRUST)
• FY2025 10-K: …of suitable investment opportunities offered to us or purchased by us. The hotel industry is highly competitive. Our hotels compete with other hotels and alternative lodging for guests in our markets. Competitive factors include, among others, location, convenience, brand affiliation, room rates, range of services,…
• FY2025 10-K: …management agreements or loan agreements. Long-Term Property Operating and Finance Leases At December 31, 2025, the following hotels were subject to leases as follows: Lease Properties Lease Type Lease Expiration Date Restaurant at Southernmost Beach Resort Operating lease April 2029 Paradise Point Resort & Spa…
• XHR (Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …hotel operations. Additionally, consumers may seek lower-cost alternatives when economic conditions are challenging. As a result, changes in consumer demand and general business cycles can subject and 51 have subjected our revenues to significant volatility. See "Part I-Item 1A. Risk Factors - Risks Related To The…
• FY2025 10-K: ) in each of their markets on the basis of several factors, including, among others, room rates, quality of accommodations, service levels and amenities, location, brand affiliation, reputation and reservation systems. Competition is often specific to the individual markets in which our hotels are located and includes…
• APLE (APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: 130 Rosemont IL Hampton Raymond 9/1/2016 158 Skokie IL Hampton Raymond 9/1/2016 225 Warrenville IL Hilton Garden Inn HHM 11/2/2010 135 Merrillville IN Hilton Garden Inn HHM 9/1/2016 124 28 City State Brand Manager (1) Date Acquired or Completed Guest Rooms Mishawaka IN Residence Inn HHM 11/2/2010 106 South Bend IN…
• FY2025 10-K: …Newport 3/1/2014 162 (2) West Orange NJ Courtyard Newport 1/11/2011 131 Las Vegas NV SpringHill Suites Highgate 12/27/2023 300 Islip/Ronkonkoma NY Hilton Garden Inn Crestline 3/1/2014 166 New York NY Independent Highgate 3/1/2014 212 (2)(7) Syracuse NY Courtyard Crestline 10/16/2015 102 Syracuse NY Residence Inn…
• SHO (Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Worldwide Holdings Inc. ("Hilton"), Montage North America, LLC ("Montage"), Sage Hospitality Group ("Sage") and Singh Hospitality, LLC ("Singh") (aka EOS Hospitality), each a manager of one of the Company's hotels. ​ Competitive Strengths ​ We believe the following competitive strengths distinguish us from other…
• FY2025 10-K: …independent internet travel intermediary, less any discount or commission paid. If the guest pays the Company directly, revenue for the room is recognized by the Company on a gross basis, with the related discount or commission recognized in room expense. A majority of the Company's hotels participate in frequent…

Entertainment (reported)

• LYV (LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee. X 10.24 Indenture, dated as of May 20, 2020 by and among Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., the Guarantors identified therein and U.S. Bank National Association, as trustee and notes collateral agent. 10-Q 001-32601 10.2 8/5/2020 10.25 First Supplemental…
• FY2025 10-K: 10.30 Indenture, dated as of January 12, 2023 by and among Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., the Guarantors identified therein and HSBC Bank USA National Association, as trustee. 10-Q 001-32601 10.1 5/4/2023 10.31 Form of Base Capped Call Confirmation. 10-Q 001-32601 10.2 5/4/2023 10.32 Form of Additional Capped Call…
• MSGE (MADISON SQUARE GARDEN ENTERTAINMENT CORP.)
• FY2025 10-K: …arts events, special events and the wholly-owned Christmas Spectacular production which features the world-famous Radio City Rockettes (the "Rockettes"). In addition, the Company hosts two of the most recognized franchises in professional sports - the NBA's Knicks and the NHL's Rangers. These live events are held at…
• FY2025 10-K: …serving as a source of joy and inspiration for fans of all ages. The Rockettes perform in nine numbers throughout the 90-minute production - with more technically complex and different styles of dance than ever before. We acquired the rights to the Christmas Spectacular in 1997, and those rights are separate from,…
• CHDN (Churchill Downs Inc)
• FY2025 10-K: …Segment: • Adjusted EBITDA was $637.0 million, up $62.4 million or 10.9% from fiscal year 2024. • Churchill Downs Racetrack: ◦ Churchill Downs Racetrack ran the 151st Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday of May, generating all-time handle record for the Kentucky Derby Race, Kentucky Derby Day Program, and Kentucky…
• FY2025 10-K: …HRM entertainment venues in several states. • Gaming The Gaming segment includes revenue and expenses for the wholly owned casino properties and associated racetrack facilities. The Gaming segment also includes our share of our equity investments in Illinois and Ohio. The Gaming segment generates revenue and expenses…
• LTH (Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …us-gaap:RelatedPartyMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0001869198 lth:RelatedPartyLeasingArrangementsMember us-gaap:RelatedPartyMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001869198 lth:RelatedPartyVicePresidentMember us-gaap:ImmediateFamilyMemberOfManagementOrPrincipalOwnerMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001869198…
• FY2025 10-K: …of all ages participating in pickleball, our iconic athletic events and a variety of our other in-center activities. The table below displays this wide assortment of physical and digital experiences: Amenities Services Activities, Products and Events Indoor and Outdoor Pools Group Fitness Studios Cycle Studios Yoga &…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

RHP Q1 2026 results, April 30 2026 · RHP Q1 2026 earnings call, April 2026