Royal Gold, Inc (RGLD): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $215.56, Royal Gold, Inc (RGLD) is priced for +15.5% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.
Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/RGLD
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | RGLD |
| Company | Royal Gold, Inc |
| Current price | $215.56/sh |
| Composition | Stream revenue - Gold 53% / Stream revenue - Silver 9% / Stream revenue - Copper 4% / Stream revenue - Other 0% / Royalty revenue - Gold 24% / Royalty revenue - Silver 3% / Royalty revenue - Copper 3% / Royalty revenue - Other 3% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 16.0% |
| Operating margin today | 62.2% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -46.2pp |
| Implied growth | 15.5% |
| Multiple paid | 23x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 9: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.6% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.4pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.12σ |
| cohort percentile (of 17 peers) | 77 |
| sustained it ~5 years at this level | 44% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 2.78x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 2.23x | 4 | expensive |
| Relative | 0.72x | 2 | justifies |
| Growth | 0.88x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.1%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=14)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $354.35 | 0.61x | yes | FCF base $0.9B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.1%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $245.35 | 0.88x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 14.8x / 17.8x / 20.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 7yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | — | — | no | P/E 17.07x (blended: static sector reference 12x + trailing (TTM) 29x), scenarios: 13.7x / 17.1x / 20.5x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA N/Ax |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $80.61 | 2.67x | yes | BV/sh $87.22, ROE (TTM) 8.5%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $77.49 | 2.78x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $221.27 | 0.97x | yes | Rev $1.3B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 9.6x / 12.0x / 14.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $289.45 | 0.74x | yes | EPS $8.27, growth 35% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=0.83 (Undervalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $39.80 | 5.42x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.44B × (1−8%) / WACC 9.1% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $76.98 | 2.80x | yes | BV $87.22 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 8.5% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 5.6%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $127.39 | 1.69x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $8.27 × BVPS $87.22) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $105.36 | 2.05x | yes | FCF $862.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $266.85 | 0.81x | yes | EPS $8.27 × (8.5 + 2×15.0%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $33.58 | 6.42x | yes | BV $87.22 × (ROIC 3.5% / WACC 9.1%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | — | — | no | Revenue $1.31B × sector P/S 3.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $310.13 | 0.70x | yes | EPS $8.27 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 25.0% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 37.5x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $89.41 | 2.41x | yes | EPS $8.27 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
One or more material disclosed units has unresolved economics. Unknown/general is not evidence of homogeneity: segment SOTP is primary but incomplete, consolidated cash flow may remain only a secondary cross-check when every unit shares an enterprise basis, and one sector multiple or target margin is withheld.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stream interests | operating | enterprise | $686.0m | $443.0m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
| Royalty interests | operating | enterprise | $344.0m | $272.0m operating-income | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $361.5m |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 0.49x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 0.45x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 6.7% |
| Burning cash | no |
Interest expense is not separately reported in the latest filings, so interest coverage cannot be computed.
Bullet Takeaways
Royal Gold is a gold royalty and streaming company, not a miner, which is why it earns a 62 percent operating margin: it collects a cut of production without funding the mining costs. At $214.83, the price is supported by relative-multiple and growth-DCF value while the asset and earnings methods say expensive.
The results are at a cyclical high. First-quarter 2026 revenue surged 143 percent to a record $469.1 million and net income rose to $281.1 million, driven by high gold prices and recent acquisitions, with royalty revenue up 120 percent and stream revenue up 155 percent.
Management is returning capital and building optionality: a $500 million buyback, a dividend raised 6 percent to $1.90 a year, and an inaugural five-year outlook for 430,000 to 480,000 gold-equivalent ounces. The swing factor is the gold price, which is doing the heavy lifting today.
Bull Case
Valuing a royalty and streaming company is its own discipline, and Royal Gold is the model done well. Unlike a miner, Royal Gold does not dig anything up: it pays upfront for the right to a percentage of a mine's production (a royalty) or to buy metal at a fixed low price (a stream), then collects for the life of the asset without bearing the operating costs, the cost inflation, or the capital expenditure that crush mining margins. That is why Royal Gold earns a 62 percent operating margin while the miners it finances earn a fraction of that. The portfolio spans stream interests (about two-thirds of revenue) and royalty interests (about one-third), diversified across many operators, so a single mine's trouble does not sink the company. This structure gives shareholders leverage to the gold price with a fraction of the operational risk.
The model just produced a spectacular quarter. First-quarter 2026 revenue surged 143 percent year over year to a record $469.1 million, net income rose 115 percent to $281.1 million, royalty revenue rose 120 percent to $156 million, and stream revenue rose 155 percent to $313 million. The drivers were a combination of high metal prices and recent acquisitions, with strong contributions from Peñasquito and Cortez. Because Royal Gold's costs are largely fixed, a rising gold price flows through to the bottom line with enormous operating leverage, which is exactly what these growth rates show.
The capital allocation and pipeline reinforce the case. Royal Gold repaid $300 million of revolver debt, secured a new $600 million accordion lifting potential revolver capacity toward $2 billion, and authorized a $500 million share repurchase explicitly framed as a tactical response to valuation disconnects, with no intent to fund buybacks with new debt. The board raised the annual dividend about 6 percent to $1.90 per share. Management issued its inaugural five-year outlook projecting 430,000 to 480,000 gold-equivalent ounces annually, with growth from Khoemacau, Platreef, Corani, Great Bear, and Hod Maden.
Bear Case
The qualitative truth to sit with is that Royal Gold's record results are, at bottom, a bet on the gold price at what may be a cyclical peak. The company states plainly that its earnings and cash flows are significantly impacted by changes in the market price of gold and other metals (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000085535-26-000008), and the 143 percent revenue surge was driven primarily by metal prices, not by mining more ounces. Gold prices are set by macro forces entirely outside Royal Gold's control: metal supply and demand, investment and jewelry demand, central-bank actions, inflation, interest rates, and currency values. When the gold price is high, royalty companies look like miracles of operating leverage; when it falls, the same leverage works in reverse. Buying at a record-results quarter means buying when the commodity tailwind is strongest, and tailwinds reverse.
The second concern follows from the model itself: Royal Gold does not control the mines it relies on. Its revenue depends on third-party operators continuing to produce, with meaningful concentration in a handful of large assets and operators including Nevada Gold Mines and Barrick (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000085535-26-000008). A mine that hits an operational problem, a permitting dispute, a labor stoppage, or a reserve disappointment can cut Royal Gold's revenue from that asset, and the company has no operational lever to fix it. The five-year growth outlook depends on development projects like Platreef and Hod Maden coming online on schedule, and mining projects are notorious for delays and overruns that Royal Gold funds but cannot manage.
Third, the price already reflects the good news. The asset and earnings methods say expensive: earnings-power value lands near $39.81, the excess-return models near $77 to $81, and the blended X-ray central estimate near $198.64, below the $214.83 price (June 28, 2026). The implied growth embedded in the price is a robust 17.7 percent, which assumes both continued high gold prices and the development pipeline delivering. The relative-valuation method lands near $152.51, well below the price, signaling that against peers on current metrics the stock is not cheap.
Valuation
Royal Gold is valued as a high-margin royalty and streaming company, and at $214.83 the price is justified by the relative-multiple and growth-DCF families while the asset-based and earnings-power methods say expensive. The 62 percent operating margin and the implied growth of 17.7 percent are the keys: the price embeds continued strong gold-linked cash flow and a delivering development pipeline.
The methods spread widely. The discounted-future-market-cap lands near $221.27, right at the price. On the low side, earnings-power value lands near $39.81, the excess-return models near $77 to $81, residual income near $76.98, and relative valuation near $152.51, all reflecting that on conservative current-cash-flow or peer-multiple frames the stock looks rich. The blended X-ray central estimate sits near $198.64, modestly below the price.
The honest framing is that Royal Gold's valuation is a leveraged bet on the gold price plus execution on its growth pipeline. The high-side methods are right if gold holds near current levels and projects like Platreef and Hod Maden deliver; the low-side methods are the floor if gold reverts and the operating leverage swings the other way. The number to weigh is the 17.7 percent implied growth against a commodity that is at or near record prices: it is reasonable if the gold cycle and the pipeline cooperate, and aggressive if either disappoints.
Catalysts
First-quarter 2026 results, reported in early May, set records across the board. Revenue surged 143 percent year over year to $469.1 million and net income rose 115 percent to $281.1 million, with royalty revenue up 120 percent to $156 million and stream revenue up 155 percent to $313 million. The results were driven by high metal prices and recent acquisitions, with strong contributions from Peñasquito and Cortez. The company repaid $300 million of revolver debt and secured a new $600 million accordion, lifting potential revolver capacity toward $2 billion.
Capital return stepped up: management authorized a $500 million share repurchase, framed as a tactical response to valuation disconnects and not to be funded with new debt, and the board raised the annual dividend about 6 percent to $1.90 per share. Royal Gold also issued its inaugural five-year outlook, projecting total annual production of 430,000 to 480,000 gold-equivalent ounces, with growth from Khoemacau, Platreef, Corani, Great Bear, and Hod Maden.
Near-term catalysts to watch: the direction of the gold price, which is the dominant driver of results, production performance at key operators including Nevada Gold Mines and Barrick, the timeline for development projects in the five-year outlook, the pace of the buyback, and any new royalty or streaming acquisitions. Analyst sentiment is a Buy consensus, with targets ranging from the mid-$240s to the mid-$370s, reflecting differing views on where gold settles.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Stream interests / Royalty interests (reported)
- SSRM (SSR MINING INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …milestones (1) 24,300 Contingent consideration tied to delineation of new reserves (1) 4,300 Total consideration $ 148,600 (1) The fair value of the two elements of contingent consideration are based on a discounted cash flow model. The contingent consideration is considered a Level 3 fair value measurement due to…
- FY2025 10-K: …ssrm:RoyaltyPortfolioMember ssrm:EMXCommonShareMember ssrm:SecondaryOfferingMember 2023-12-22 0000921638 us-gaap:DisposalGroupDisposedOfBySaleNotDiscontinuedOperationsMember ssrm:SecondaryOfferingMember ssrm:RoyaltyPortfolioMember ssrm:EMXCommonShareMember us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel2Member 2024-12-31 0000921638…
- NEM (NEWMONT CORPORATION)
- FY2025 10-K: …2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001164727 nem:ForeignCurrencyExchangeAndDieselFixedForwardContractsMember us-gaap:ReclassificationOutOfAccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember us-gaap:AccumulatedGainLossCashFlowHedgeIncludingNoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-01-01 2024-12-31 0001164727…
- FY2025 10-K: :AccumulatedGainLossCashFlowHedgeIncludingNoncontrollingInterestMember 2023-01-01 2023-12-31 0001164727 us-gaap:ReclassificationOutOfAccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember us-gaap:AccumulatedDefinedBenefitPlansAdjustmentIncludingPortionAttributableToNoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001164727…
- AEM (AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED)
- FY2025 40-F: …exempt from Sections 14(a), 14(b), 14(c), 14(f) and 16 of the Exchange Act pursuant to Rule 3a12-3. The Holding Foreign Insiders Accountable Act (the "HFIA Act"), enacted on December 18, 2025, amended Section 16(a) of the Exchange Act to require directors and officers of foreign private issuers to comply with the…
- FY2025 40-F: Not applicable. CORPORATE GOVERNANCE The Company is subject to a variety of corporate governance guidelines and requirements enacted by the Toronto Stock Exchange (the "TSX"), the Canadian securities regulatory authorities, the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE") and the SEC. The Company is listed on the NYSE and,…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.