Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR): what the price assumes

Generated: 2026-08-08 · Exported: 2026-08-09 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/REXR

Headline

Field	Value
Ticker	REXR
Company	Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.
Current price	$37.04/sh

What The Price Assumes (Inversion)

The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.

Field	Value
Inversion basis	reit
Implied FFO growth	0.7%
Price-to-FFO	13.7x
FFO yield	7.3%

Solve inputs: computed at a 10.3% cost of equity with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of equity moves the implied AFFO growth ~3.6pp.

Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~-3.2%/yr; the models below use their own rates.

How unusual the bet is: within-range

Reference	Value
vs own history	-0.78σ
cohort percentile (of 105 peers)	41
implied end-window share	0%

Valuation X-Ray

The price is justified by relative-multiple; asset-based/earnings-power land below the price.

How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.

Family	Median price/FV	Models	Reads
Asset	4.42x	4	expensive
Earnings	2.46x	4	expensive
Relative	1.13x	6	expensive
Growth	1.26x	5	expensive

Families that justify the price: Relative Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings

The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 6.8%); the inversion above states its own rate.

Per-Model Detail (n=19)

Model	Family	FV	Price/FV	Applicable	Methodology
DCF Perpetual Growth	Growth	$20.80	1.78x	yes	FCF base $0.5B, growth 1% (input: historical growth), terminal g 0.6%, WACC 6.8%, 5yr projection
DCF Exit Multiple	Growth	$33.16	1.12x	yes	Exit EV/EBITDA: 35.8x / 37.8x / 39.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 5yr
Relative Valuation	Relative	$48.83	0.76x	yes	P/E 26.49x (blended: static sector reference 35x + trailing (TTM) 14x), scenarios: 22.4x / 26.5x / 30.6x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 25.35x
Simple DDM	Growth	$29.34	1.26x	yes	DPS $1.76, g=3.1% (sustainable: ROE (TTM) × retention; not the terminal-growth assumption), ke=9.3%
Two-Stage DDM	Growth	$38.68	0.96x	yes	Stage 1: 8% for 5yr, Stage 2: 3.5% perpetual
Simple Excess Return	Asset	$11.19	3.31x	yes	BV/sh $33.70, ROE (TTM) 3.1%, ke 9.3%
Two-Stage Excess Return	Asset	$6.71	5.52x	yes	5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3%
Discounted Future Market Cap	Growth	$21.97	1.69x	yes	Rev $1.0B, growth 1% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 6.8x / 8.0x / 9.2x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x)
Peter Lynch Fair Value	Relative	$32.40	1.14x	yes	FFO/share $2.70, growth 8% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 10y median), PEG=4.38 (Overvalued)
Margin Trajectory	Growth	—	—	no	—
Earnings Power Value	Earnings	—	—	no	—
Residual Income	Asset	$4.99	7.42x	yes	BV $33.70 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 3.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 2.0%/yr
Graham Number	Asset	$45.24	0.82x	yes	√(22.5 × FFO/share $2.70 × BVPS $33.70) — Graham's conservative floor
EV/EBITDA Relative	Relative	$12.76	2.90x	yes	EBITDA $0.30B × sector EV/EBITDA 20.0x
FCF Yield	Earnings	$10.16	3.65x	yes	FCF $509.3M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity
SBC-Adj FCF Yield	Earnings	$6.03	6.14x	yes	SBC-adj FCF $0.42B (FCF $0.51B − SBC $0.09B) capitalized at Kₑ
Ben Graham Formula	Earnings	$56.23	0.66x	yes	FFO/share $2.70 × (8.5 + 2×8.2%) × (4.4 / 5.3%)
ROIC-Justified P/B	Asset	—	—	no	—
P/Sales Sector	Relative	$26.59	1.39x	yes	Revenue $0.99B × sector P/S 6.0x
PEG Fair Value	Relative	$33.11	1.12x	yes	FFO/share $2.70 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 8.2% (input: historical FFO/share growth, 10y median)) → PE 12.3x
Earnings Yield	Earnings	$29.19	1.27x	yes	FFO/share $2.70 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%)
Funds From Operations Multiple	Relative	$38.03	0.97x	yes	FFO/share $2.70 × 14.1x P/FFO (route cohort median, n=85); FFO $0.61B (FFO incl. D&A + impairments, FY2025, companyfacts), shares 224M
Clinical Phase NPV	Growth	—	—	no	—
Merton	Asset	—	—	no	—
V5 Mechanical	—	—	—	no	—

Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)

Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.

Unit	Role	Valuation basis	Revenue	Reported profit	Value evidence	Status
Rexford Industrial (consolidated REIT)	operating	enterprise	1.0B reported-currency	—	withheld	unresolved no unit value

No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.

Solvency

Field	Value
Funds from operations (trailing)	$605.2m
Share count CAGR (dilution)	7.9%
Burning cash	no

REIT basis: leverage is read against funds from operations (FFO), not depreciation-gutted operating income. The header's implied growth runs on ADJUSTED FFO — FFO minus recurring maintenance capex — so the header's multiple and this leverage ratio use bases that differ by that capex; neither substitutes for the other. Net debt could not be resolved from the corporate debt tags in the filings (REIT notes and mortgage debt are often tagged outside the corporate ladder), so the leverage ratio is withheld rather than rendered from incomplete tags. Interest expense is not separately reported in the cached statements, so fixed-charge coverage cannot be computed.

Bullet Takeaways

• Rexford owns industrial property packed into Southern California's infill markets, the warehouse and distribution space wedged between freeways and ports where almost nothing new can be built, and that scarcity is the entire investment thesis.
• The near-term risk is real and showing up now: cash re-leasing spreads turned negative 15.4% in Q1 2026 as the SoCal industrial market softened, with negative net absorption and rising concessions, so the mark-to-market engine that drove years of growth has stalled.
• Watch the capital pivot and the next print: management authorized a $500 million buyback and is recycling roughly $300 million of dispositions into repurchases rather than acquisitions, a shift from growth-by-buying to shrinking the share count that core FFO per share, down 1.6% year over year in Q1, badly needs.

Bull Case

There is no more vacant land in the places Rexford owns. Southern California's infill industrial markets, the warehouse and last-mile distribution space crammed between the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the rail yards, and the freeways, were built out decades ago. You cannot manufacture a new fifty-acre logistics site in Vernon or the San Gabriel Valley because there is nowhere to put it and no jurisdiction that will permit it. That scarcity is the whole bull case, and it is the kind of moat that does not erode in a quarter of soft demand. The tenants who need to be within an hour of twenty million consumers and the two largest container ports in the country have nowhere else to go.

That structural advantage has historically shown up as a yawning gap between what Rexford's tenants pay and what the space is worth at market. The leasing machine ran at record volume even in a soft quarter: 4.1 million square feet executed in Q1 2026. The headline re-leasing spread looked ugly at negative 15.4%, but that figure was dominated by a single large renewal, the Tireco extension, which carried a roughly 30% negative spread on its own; strip that one lease out and net effective rents on the rest of the quarter's leasing rose 5.5%. The underlying portfolio still re-prices upward when an average lease rolls; one outsized renewal distorted the average.

The more important story this quarter was the capital pivot, and it is a genuinely good use of a cheap stock. Rather than keep buying property into a soft market, management authorized a $500 million buyback and is funding it partly by selling non-core assets, with about $300 million of dispositions targeted for 2026. In the first quarter alone it repurchased 5.53 million shares for $200 million at an average of $36.14. For a company that grew for years by issuing equity to fund acquisitions, turning around to retire shares below where management thinks the assets are worth is the right move at the right time, and it directly attacks the per-share growth problem.

The balance sheet gives management the room to play this hand. Debt of about $3.3 billion carries a weighted-average interest rate of just 3.7% with a three-year average term and no material maturities until 2027, and net debt runs a conservative 4.5 times adjusted EBITDA. Total liquidity sits near $1.3 billion. A REIT that locked in low-cost, long-dated debt before rates rose, and that holds irreplaceable assets in the tightest industrial market in the country, can wait out a soft patch and buy back its own stock while it does. That is the bet: scarcity plus a fortress balance sheet plus a management team finally buying low.

Bear Case

The Southern California industrial cycle has turned, and Rexford is a pure-play bet on exactly the wrong half of it right now. After years in which infill SoCal was the tightest, fastest-appreciating industrial market in the country, the first quarter of 2026 showed the market giving ground: negative net absorption, a 20-basis-point rise in vacancy, higher tenant concessions, and elevated bad-debt expense. Same-property NOI grew just 0.9%, and on a cash basis it actually slipped 0.4%. Cash re-leasing spreads were negative 15.4% for the quarter. Even setting aside the one large Tireco renewal that dragged the average, the direction is unmistakable: the mark-to-market tailwind that defined this company's growth has flattened, and core FFO per share fell 1.6% year over year. The engine is not just slowing. For a quarter, it ran in reverse.

Now read what the price assumes against that backdrop. At about 13 times adjusted funds from operations, the cash the portfolio throws off after the recurring capital it takes to keep the buildings leasable, for an adjusted-FFO yield near 7.7%, the price embeds a slightly negative path for that cash from here. So the market has already marked down the growth assumption, which is honest. The problem is that even at a modest multiple, every standard way of valuing the assets and the earnings lands below today's price. Peer multiples and a growth-aware cash-flow read come closest, but they too sit a step under the quote, and the asset-value and trailing-earnings lenses sit far below. There is no valuation method that reaches up to today's price; the price is a bet that the SoCal scarcity story reasserts itself before the soft patch becomes a soft year.

The dilution history is the structural wound under all of it. Share count compounded at roughly 9% a year through the acquisition era, which means a great deal of the portfolio growth never reached existing holders on a per-share basis, it was bought with their own diluted ownership. The $500 million buyback is the right correction, but $200 million repurchased in a quarter against years of heavy issuance is a turn of the wheel, not a reversal of the trip. If the SoCal market stays soft, the buyback competes for capital with a dividend that already consumes much of the cash flow, and the per-share recovery slows.

The mitigants keep this from being a solvency story. Net debt at about 4.5 times adjusted EBITDA is conservative, the 3.7% weighted-average cost of debt is enviable, term is laddered with nothing material due until 2027, and fixed-charge coverage near 6.8 times leaves real room. Rexford is not financially fragile. The bear case is narrower and sharper than that: a richly located portfolio in a market that has stopped cooperating, priced above every valuation method, with a per-share track record the new buyback is only beginning to repair. The assets are irreplaceable. The cycle is not on their side this year.

Valuation

Adjusted funds from operations is the honest lens for an industrial REIT, the cash the buildings generate after the recurring capital it takes to keep them leasable, and on that lens Rexford trades at about 13 times for an adjusted-FFO yield near 7.7%. Plain funds from operations, the gross figure before that maintenance capital, sits a touch lower at about 12.3 times for an 8.1% yield, and it is the starting point the adjusted number refines rather than a valuation of its own. The adjusted multiple is the cheapest of the high-quality coastal industrial names, which is the market's way of pricing in the soft patch.

What the price assumes is a mild decline. Inverted, today's level embeds a slightly negative path for adjusted funds from operations from here, which lines up with the quarter just reported: core FFO per share fell 1.6% year over year, and same-property NOI on a cash basis slipped. So the market is not asking the SoCal scarcity story to keep compounding; it has already priced the deceleration. The question the multiple poses is narrower, whether the cash holds roughly flat or keeps eroding, and the answer depends almost entirely on when infill Southern California stops loosening.

Here the methods that triangulate the price line up in an unusual way for this portfolio. Against asset value and against trailing earnings power, the price looks expensive, both lenses land far below today's level, the familiar REIT pattern where depreciation guts reported earnings and book value lags. But unlike a name the market prices comfortably on peer multiples, Rexford's price sits modestly above where peer multiples and a growth-aware cash-flow read land too. No standard method reaches up to the quote. The growth and peer lenses come closest, which says the residual premium is a bet on the scarcity value of irreplaceable infill land reasserting itself, the one thing no trailing method can capture and no soft quarter disproves. That is the premium the buyer is paying, and it is smaller than it was, but it is still there.

Solvency is the reassuring part and bears directly on whether Rexford can wait out the cycle. Net debt runs about 4.5 times adjusted EBITDA, conservative, with a 3.7% weighted-average cost of debt, a laddered maturity profile carrying nothing material due until 2027, and fixed-charge coverage near 6.8 times. The one blemish is the share count, which compounded near 9% a year through the acquisition era and diluted the per-share growth the asset growth might otherwise have delivered; the new $500 million buyback is the deliberate correction, retiring stock below where management values the assets. The balance sheet buys time. What it cannot buy is a faster turn in the Southern California rent cycle, which is the variable the whole price rests on.

Catalysts

The Q1 2026 print was a study in two stories at once. Rexford reported company-share core FFO of $139.8 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, down 1.6% per share from a year earlier, with net income of $0.38 per share. Same-property NOI rose just 0.9% and slipped 0.4% on a cash basis, and cash re-leasing spreads came in at negative 15.4%, dragged by the large Tireco renewal. Yet leasing volume set a record at 4.1 million square feet, and management raised the full-year core FFO per share midpoint by $0.02 on first-quarter outperformance and the accretion from buybacks. The softening Southern California market, negative net absorption and a 20-basis-point vacancy increase, is the backdrop against which both the strong leasing volume and the weak spreads have to be read.

The capital strategy is where the real news sits. Management authorized a $500 million share repurchase program running through April 2028 and bought back 5.53 million shares for $200 million during the quarter at an average price of $36.14. It is funding that partly through dispositions, having sold five properties for $127.4 million in Q1 with roughly $300 million of total disposition proceeds targeted for the year. The pivot from acquisition-led growth to capital recycling and buybacks is the most consequential change in the story, and the next several quarters will show whether it stabilizes per-share funds from operations.

On capital returns, the board declared a second-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.435 per share, payable in July. The next earnings report is the event to watch, both for the trajectory of re-leasing spreads once the Tireco distortion is behind the comparison and for any sign that infill Southern California vacancy has stopped rising.

Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)

Rexford Industrial (consolidated REIT) (reported)

• FR (FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …Consolidated Financial Statements 67 1. Organization 67 2. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies 68 3. Investment in Real Estate 75 4. Indebtedness 76 5. Variable Interest Entities 79 6. Equity of the Company and Partners' Capital of the Operating Partnership 81 7. Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)…
• FY2025 10-K: …Partners' Capital $ 5,697,237 $ 5,270,655 The accompanying notes are an integral part of the consolidated financial statements. 61 FIRST INDUSTRIAL, L.P. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS Year Ended December 31, 2025 Year Ended December 31, 2024 Year Ended December 31, 2023 (In thousands, except per Unit data)…
• PLD (Prologis, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: …leases of $691 million and $645 million in 2025 and 2024, respectively. • Strategic Capital Segment. We also generate operating cash through the fee revenue from our Strategic Capital Segment by providing asset management and property management and other services to our unconsolidated co-investment ventures. See the…
• FY2025 10-K: …of Income and within Note 18 to the Consolidated Financial Statements and to the respective amounts in our same store portfolio analysis for the three months ended December 31 (dollars in millions): Three Months Ended March 31, June 30, September 30, December 31, Full Year 2025 Rental revenues $ 1,987 $ 2,026 $ 2,054…
• EGP (EASTGROUP PROPERTIES, INC.)
• FY2025 10-K: …to the short maturity of those instruments. • Interest rate swap assets (included in Other assets, net on the Consolidated Balance Sheets): The instruments are recorded at fair value based on models using inputs, such as interest rate yield curves, SOFR swap curves, observable for substantially the full term of the…
• FY2025 10-K: 31, 2025 (In thousands, except footnotes) Description Initial Cost to the Company Costs Capitalized Subsequent to Acquisition Gross Amount Carried at Close of Period Accumulated Depreciation Year Acquired Year Constructed Description Land Buildings and Improvements Costs Capitalized Subsequent to Acquisition Land…
• STAG (STAG Industrial, Inc.)
• FY2025 10-K: REIT, and owns all of its properties and conducts substantially all of its business through its operating partnership, STAG Industrial Operating Partnership, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (the "Operating Partnership"). As of December 31, 2025 and 2024, the Company owned 98.1 % and 98.0 %, respectively, of the…
• FY2025 10-K: …stock, LTIP units, and performance units. See Notes 6, 7 and 8 for further discussion of restricted shares of common stock, LTIP units, and performance units , respectively. The Company measures equity-based compensation expense based on the fair value of the awards on the grant date and recognizes the expense…
• TRNO (Terreno Realty Corporation)
• FY2025 10-K: …industrial properties and one portfolio of industrial properties. This included the assumption of a mortgage loan with a total contractual principal amount of approximately $ 72.9 million which bears interest at a contractual fixed interest rate of 3.9 % and matures in March 2028. Upon acquisition, this mortgage loan…
• FY2025 10-K: …were $ 82.0 million of borrowings outstanding on the revolving credit facility and $ 200.0 million of borrowings outstanding on the term loans. As of December 31, interest on the Amended Facility, including the term loans, is generally to be paid based upon, at the Company's option, either (i) SOFR plus the…
• LXP (LXP INDUSTRIAL TRUST)
• FY2025 10-K: …new revolving credit facility matures on January 31, 2030, with options to extend the maturity for two successive six-month terms or one twelve-month term, at the Company's discretion, subject to certain conditions. The $ 250,000 unsecured term loan has an initial maturity date of January 31, 2029, with two one-year…
• FY2025 10-K: LC in Real estate, at cost $ - $ 4,605 $ - Deconsolidation of Lombard Street Lots, LLC in Investments in non-consolidated entities $ - $ 2,311 $ - Deconsolidation of Lombard Street Lots, LLC in Noncontrolling interests $ - $ 2,503 $ - Deconsolidation of Lepercq Corporate Income Fund L.P in Noncontrolling interests $ -…

Methodology Note

• Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
• Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
• Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
• Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
• Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.

Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.

Sources

Q1 2026 earnings release · Q1 2026 disclosures · Q1 2026 earnings release, 8-K April 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings call, April 2026 · Q1 2026 earnings disclosures · Q1 2026 guidance · company dividend declaration, April 2026