REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (REGN): what the price requires
At today's price, REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (REGN) is priced for +8.8% growth. boothcheck doesn't publish a fair value or a price target; it shows what the price assumes, so you can judge whether that bar is too high.
Generated: 2026-07-13 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/REGN
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | REGN |
| Company | REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. |
| Current price | $661.99/sh |
| Composition | Net product sales 44% / Collaboration revenue 51% / Other revenue 5% |
What The Price Requires (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin needed | 7.3% |
| Operating margin today | 23.8% |
| Margin compression implied | -16.5pp |
| Implied growth | 8.8% |
| Multiple paid | 19x operating income |
The operating-margin requirement is derived from the framework's value band at year 12, a separately labeled basis from the headline growth/duration solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 8.3% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage; each 1pp of cost of capital moves the implied operating-profit growth ~7.1pp.
How unusual the bet is: within-range
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.41σ |
| cohort percentile (of 112 peers) | 42 |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
The price is justified by relative-multiple and growth-DCF.
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 1.28x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 1.49x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.19x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.92x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Relative, Growth
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 9.0%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $851.09 | 0.78x | yes | FCF base $4.2B, growth 7% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 9.0%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $723.47 | 0.92x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 16.7x / 18.7x / 20.7x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $808.26 | 0.82x | yes | P/E 24x (sector median), scenarios: 20.0x / 24.0x / 28.0x (bear / base = sector held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 16x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $444.02 | 1.49x | yes | BV/sh $291.77, ROE (TTM) 14.1%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $542.02 | 1.22x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $528.90 | 1.25x | yes | Rev $14.9B, growth 7% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 4.0x / 4.8x / 5.6x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $491.52 | 1.35x | yes | EPS $40.96, growth 2% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=6.51 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $456.59 | 1.45x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $4.97B × (1−13%) / WACC 9.0% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $559.54 | 1.18x | yes | BV $291.77 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 14.1% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 8.8%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $518.55 | 1.28x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $40.96 × BVPS $291.77) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $566.51 | 1.17x | yes | EBITDA $3.75B × sector EV/EBITDA 16.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $421.92 | 1.57x | yes | FCF $4113.0M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $322.01 | 2.06x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $3.12B (FCF $4.11B − SBC $1.00B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $461.85 | 1.43x | yes | EPS $40.96 × (8.5 + 2×2.5%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $59.79 | 11.07x | yes | BV $291.77 × (ROIC 1.8% / WACC 9.0%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $554.12 | 1.19x | yes | Revenue $14.92B × sector P/S 4.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $204.80 | 3.23x | yes | EPS $40.96 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 2.5% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 3.7x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $442.81 | 1.49x | yes | EPS $40.96 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $6.0b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | -2.07x (net cash) |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | -1.81x (net cash) |
| Interest coverage | 75.1x |
| Share count CAGR (buyback) | -1.2% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
At $610.05 (as of June 27, 2026), Regeneron is supported by asset-based, relative-multiple, and growth-DCF value, with the methods describing a value-and-asset name rather than a pure growth bet. The implied growth baked into the price is a modest 6 percent, low for a company whose two biggest drugs are still expanding.
The near-term debate is the Eylea franchise. Combined U.S. Eylea sales fell 10 percent under biosimilar and competitive pressure, even as the new Eylea HD formulation grew 52 percent. The franchise is shrinking and reinventing itself at the same time.
The offset is breadth. Dupixent, recorded by partner Sanofi, grew 33 percent to $4.9 billion globally, Libtayo grew 54 percent, and the pipeline added a first gene-therapy approval. With a fortress balance sheet and a fresh $3 billion buyback, the question is whether the growers outrun the eroders.
Bull Case
Start with the risk the bears lead on, because it is real: the Eylea franchise is under attack. Regeneron's own filings warn of biosimilar competition in the United States, including additional aflibercept biosimilars expected to launch and Amgen's Pavblu, which entered the market in late 2024 (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000872589-26-000008). Combined U.S. Eylea and Eylea HD net sales fell 10 percent to $941 million in the first quarter of 2026 on lower legacy-Eylea volume. For a drug that was once the company's anchor, that is a genuine erosion, and any honest bull case has to begin by conceding it.
Now look at whether the data actually supports the fear or undermines it. The same quarter showed Eylea HD, the longer-duration successor formulation, growing 52 percent to $468 million, meaning Regeneron is migrating its own patients to a product biosimilars cannot copy. More importantly, the company is no longer an Eylea story. Total revenue rose 19 percent to $3.6 billion. Dupixent, the immunology blockbuster Regeneron developed with Sanofi, grew 33 percent to $4.9 billion in global net sales and is still building volume across five indications, with the COPD launch drawing the sharpest physician interest. Libtayo in oncology grew 54 percent to $438 million. The fear is concentrated in one aging franchise; the growth is spread across several younger ones.
The valuation and the balance sheet seal the case. The methods cluster around and above the price: the DCF perpetual-growth model lands near $854, relative valuation near $808, and the DCF exit-multiple near $684, while the asset and earnings methods land in the $440 to $560 range, so the blend sits right at the $610 price. Regeneron earns a 24 percent operating margin, carries a fortress balance sheet, and just authorized a fresh $3 billion buyback, signaling management views the stock as cheap. With analysts carrying a Buy consensus and price targets clustered in the $750 to $875 range, the bull thesis is that the market is pricing only 6 percent implied growth into a company whose pipeline and immunology franchise can deliver more, while the Eylea decline is already in the numbers.
Bear Case
The structural feature that should give a holder pause is hidden in the revenue mix: more than half of Regeneron's revenue is collaboration revenue, not product Regeneron sells itself. Dupixent, the single fastest-growing and largest contributor to the franchise's momentum, is recorded by Sanofi, and Regeneron books its share of profits through the collaboration. That arrangement is lucrative, but it is also a dependence: Regeneron does not control Dupixent's commercialization, pricing, or the cost structure behind it, and the company raised its 2026 cost-of-collaboration guidance to $955 million to $1.035 billion while cutting product gross-margin guidance to 77 to 78 percent from 79 to 80 percent. A balance sheet and income statement built on a partner's drug is strong until the economics of that partnership shift, and the margin guidance moving the wrong way is the first sign of cost headwinds the company only partly controls.
The second risk is the one the bull case concedes but cannot dismiss: the Eylea cliff is structural, not cyclical. Biosimilar aflibercept is launching from multiple sponsors, Amgen's Pavblu is already in the U.S. market, and additional versions are expected (FY2025 10-K, accession 0000872589-26-000008). Eylea HD is the defense, but converting an entire installed base to a higher-priced successor while biosimilars undercut the legacy product is a race against price erosion and payer pressure. Combined U.S. Eylea sales already fell 10 percent. If Eylea HD adoption slows or payers push back on its premium, a franchise that still contributes meaningfully to product sales keeps shrinking faster than HD can backfill.
Third, the price already embeds the optimistic read. Regeneron trades near $610 with the growth and relative lenses valuing it near or slightly above the quote, so the stock is roughly fairly priced on most frames, not cheap. GAAP net income actually fell 10 percent in the first quarter even as revenue grew, a reminder that mix and cost pressures are compressing the bottom line. Pipeline-dependent biotech valuations are unforgiving: a single Phase 3 failure, an FDA setback, or a competitive readout against fianlimab or Libtayo in oncology would force the growth-DCF and relative methods that hold the price up to reset lower. The bear case is not that Regeneron is a bad company; it is that the price assumes the new drugs win and the old ones decline gracefully, and biology does not always cooperate.
Valuation
Regeneron is valued as a profitable, mature biotech, and at $610.05 the methods describe a company that is roughly fairly priced rather than obviously cheap or expensive. The price is supported by asset-based, relative-multiple, and growth-DCF value simultaneously, which the priced-in read characterizes as a value-and-asset-supported name, not a pure growth bet. The implied growth embedded in the price is only about 6 percent, modest for a company with a 24 percent operating margin and several still-expanding franchises.
The methods bracket the price from both sides. The forward and relative lenses land above it: the DCF perpetual-growth near $854, relative valuation near $808, and EV/EBITDA relative near $566. The asset and earnings lenses land below: earnings-power value near $458, two-stage excess return near $542, residual income near $560, and the FCF-yield methods in the $322 to $422 range, reflecting that free cash flow runs lighter than reported earnings. The blended X-ray central estimate sits near $613, essentially on top of the $610 price.
The 6 percent implied growth is the key number to weigh; if Dupixent, Libtayo, and the pipeline can beat it, the stock is undervalued, and if Eylea erodes faster than HD backfills, the conservative methods near $450 to $560 set the floor.
Catalysts
First-quarter 2026 results, reported in late April, beat on the top line with total revenue up 19 percent to $3.605 billion. Non-GAAP net income rose 12 percent to about $1.04 billion, though GAAP net income fell 10 percent to $727 million on mix and cost pressures. Dupixent global net sales, recorded by Sanofi, rose 33 percent to $4.9 billion; Libtayo rose 54 percent to $438 million; Eylea HD U.S. sales jumped 52 percent to $468 million, while combined U.S. Eylea and Eylea HD sales fell 10 percent to $941 million under competitive pressure. Management cut full-year product gross-margin guidance to 77 to 78 percent and raised collaboration cost guidance, and authorized a fresh $3 billion share buyback.
The pipeline delivered a milestone with Regeneron's first gene-therapy approval in the quarter. The most-watched commercial catalyst is the Dupixent COPD launch, one of five indications still building volume and drawing the sharpest physician interest, alongside oncology progress with fianlimab and Libtayo.
Near-term catalysts to watch: the pace of Eylea HD conversion against new aflibercept biosimilars, Dupixent COPD uptake, oncology pipeline readouts including fianlimab, any further changes to margin guidance, and the cadence of the buyback. Analyst sentiment is a Buy consensus with price targets clustered around $750 to $875, and Bank of America recently turned more constructive citing a better view on Eylea HD and 2026 catalysts.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Regeneron (single reportable segment) (reported)
- VRTX (VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC / MA)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BMRN (BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- ALNY (ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- NBIX (NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- EXEL (EXELIXIS, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- AMGN (Amgen Inc.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- GILD (GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
- BIIB (BIOGEN INC.)
- (no filing in the citation store)
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.