RUBRIK, INC. (RBRK): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $84.80, RUBRIK, INC. (RBRK) is priced for today's economics sustained for ~13.3 years. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.
Generated: 2026-08-10 · Exported: 2026-08-12 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/RBRK
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | RBRK |
| Company | RUBRIK, INC. |
| Current price | $84.80/sh |
| Composition | Subscription 96% / Other 4% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | revenue-multiple |
| EV / sales paid | 12.6x |
| Steady-state operating margin assumed | 32.0% |
| Must persist for | 13.3y |
The company earns no operating profit yet; the inversion runs on the revenue multiple and an assumed steady-state margin.
Solve inputs: computed at a 11.8% cost of capital; growth searched up to the 25% self-funding ceiling; each 1pp moves the implied horizon ~2.2 years.
Reconcile: at the x-ray's 9.3% required return this reads ~8.1 years; the models below use their own rates.
How unusual the bet is: elevated (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| sustained it ~10 years at this level | 15% |
| implied end-window share | 0% |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | — | 0 | — |
| Earnings | 4.57x | 1 | expensive |
| Relative | 1.52x | 2 | expensive |
| Growth | 1.21x | 3 | expensive |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 8.7%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=6)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $70.37 | 1.21x | yes | FCF base $0.3B, growth 25% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 8.7%, 7yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero FCF or EBITDA — equity value floored at $0 |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $55.96 | 1.52x | yes | P/S fallback (negative EPS): Sector P/S 8.0x × TTM revenue — excluded from consensus |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $121.81 | 0.70x | yes | Rev $1.4B, growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 9.6x / 12.0x / 14.4x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 12x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $0.00 | — | no | Negative/zero EPS — earnings-based value floored at $0 |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | $57.54 | 1.47x | yes | Margin ramp: -20% → 22% over 7yr, rev growth 30% (input: historical growth; tapered) |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Residual Income | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| Graham Number | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $18.56 | 4.57x | yes | FCF $293.9M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $55.96 | 1.52x | yes | Revenue $1.42B × sector P/S 8.0x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | — | — | no | — |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubrik - Software and Services (consolidated) | operating | enterprise | 0.9B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net cash | $617.3m |
| Interest coverage | -35.9x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 50.3% |
| Burning cash | no |
Operating profit is negative or near zero and the company has no demonstrated through-cycle (mid-cycle) operating margin to normalize against, so years-to-repay cannot be computed honestly.
Bullet Takeaways
Rubrik is not yet profitable, so the price is set against sales. At roughly 9.7 times revenue near $70.21, the price implies the business eventually earns an operating margin around 32% and grows revenue at its self-funding ceiling for about ten years. That is an elevated bet: only about 15% of comparable fast-growers have sustained such a run.
The growth metric that matters is subscription annual recurring revenue, which reached about $1.46 billion at the end of fiscal 2026, up 34%, and $1.57 billion in the latest quarter. The recurring base, 96% of revenue, is what a software valuation should anchor to.
Only the growth-DCF method reaches the price; the asset and earnings methods are unusable because book value and operating profit are negative. This is a durability premium the static frames cannot price. The balance sheet (net cash near $617 million) is sound, but heavy share-based compensation and a sharply rising share count are the real drag on per-share value.
Bull Case
Valuing Rubrik means understanding why a cyber-resilience software company is hard to price on conventional methods: it runs a deficit on the income statement while building a large, fast-growing recurring revenue base, so the value lives in the durability of that base, not in current earnings. The right yardstick is subscription annual recurring revenue, which grew 34% to about $1.46 billion at the end of fiscal 2026, with the company adding a record $115 million of net new subscription ARR in the year. In the latest quarter subscription ARR reached $1.57 billion, up 32%, and revenue grew 39% to $387.1 million. Subscription is 96% of the mix, so this is a high-visibility recurring model, not a project business.
The positioning sits in a category with secular demand. Rubrik describes itself as operating "at the intersection of data protection, cyber resilience, and enterprise AI acceleration," with its Security Cloud "securing, monitoring, and recovering data, identities, and workloads across clouds." Cyber resilience, the ability to recover cleanly from a ransomware attack, is a board-level priority that does not shrink in a downturn, and that gives the ARR growth a durable tailwind. The recurring, expansion-driven model is exactly what the long-duration value the price embeds requires.
The company is also turning the corner on cash. Management reported significant free cash flow in fiscal 2026 and guided full-year fiscal 2027 to subscription ARR of roughly $1.83 billion and revenue of about $1.6 billion, implying continued high growth with improving economics. The balance sheet carries net cash near $617 million and liquid assets near $1.75 billion, so the company funds its growth internally. For the bull, Rubrik is a category leader in cyber resilience compounding ARR in the mid-30s percent, generating cash, and growing into the margin the price assumes, which is why the growth-DCF (near $76) and the discounted-future-market-cap (near $102) sit at or above the current quote.
Bear Case
The honest read on the model disagreement is stark: only one method reaches the price and most cannot even be computed. The growth-DCF lands near $76, but the asset and earnings families are unusable, book value per share is negative, operating profit is negative, return on equity is not meaningful, and the earnings-floor method that does compute (FCF yield near $14) sits at a fraction of the price. When the only frame supporting a $70 (June 28, 2026) quote is a forward-growth model that itself assumes a decade of compounding, the price has no anchor in current economics. The reasonable-value band runs from roughly $24 to $42, all well below the current price.
The assumption the price embeds is demanding. At about 9.7 times revenue, the price requires Rubrik to eventually reach an operating margin around 32% and grow revenue at its self-funding ceiling for roughly ten years. Only about 15% of comparable fast-growers have sustained such a run. The company is profitable on neither a GAAP nor a normalized basis today, so the entire value is in the back years, and any slowing of ARR growth, the metric the bull case rests on, would force a repricing toward the methods clustered below $42.
The dilution is the quiet structural problem. The share count has grown sharply (the data shows share growth above 50% year over year, reflecting the recent IPO and heavy stock-based compensation), and stock compensation exceeds free cash flow, meaning the headline cash generation does not translate to per-share value. A relatively new public company with limited operating history, competing against entrenched data-protection incumbents and security platforms, is asking shareholders to underwrite a decade of margin expansion while diluting them along the way. Strip out the assumption that ARR keeps compounding at the current pace and the margin ramp arrives on schedule, and there is little beneath the price; the cyber-resilience story is real, but the valuation is pricing near-flawless execution for many years.
Valuation
Because Rubrik is not yet earning a normal operating profit, the price is set against sales. At about 9.7 times revenue near $70.21, the inversion implies the business eventually reaches an operating margin around 32% and grows revenue at its self-funding ceiling for roughly ten years, computed at an 11.2% cost of capital. Each one-point change in the cost of capital moves the implied horizon about 1.9 years. The priced-in assumption is elevated because both the growth and the margin expansion must persist for a long time, and only about 15% of comparable fast-growers have sustained such a run.
The usable methods are sparse, which is itself the signal. The growth and relative families carry the read: perpetual-growth DCF near $76, discounted-future-market-cap near $102, margin-trajectory near $58, and price-to-sales near $56. The asset and earnings families are unusable: negative book value per share rules out the excess-return and residual-income methods, negative operating profit rules out earnings power value, and the share-based-compensation-adjusted FCF method cannot compute because stock compensation exceeds free cash flow. The characterization is direct: asset, earnings-power, and peer-multiple models all say richly valued, and only the growth-DCF reaches the price, so the price is a durability premium the static frames cannot capture.
The reconciliation: the price is justified only on the assumption of sustained ARR growth and an eventual margin ramp; there is no support from current earnings or assets. One measurement note: the trailing operating figure used in the inversion and the EDGAR quarterly measure diverge sharply here, so treat the 9.7x revenue multiple as approximate. The balance sheet (net cash near $617 million) removes solvency risk, but the rapid share-count growth and heavy stock compensation are the per-share drag that the headline ARR and cash-flow figures obscure. This is a high-conviction growth bet, not a value-supported one.
Catalysts
The most recent catalysts were the fiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 guidance. Full-year fiscal 2026 (ended January 31, 2026) subscription ARR grew 34% to about $1.46 billion with a record $115 million of net new subscription ARR, and fourth-quarter subscription revenue grew 50% to $364.9 million. Management guided full-year fiscal 2027 to subscription ARR of roughly $1.83 billion and revenue of about $1.6 billion, and the first quarter showed subscription ARR up 32% to $1.57 billion with revenue up 39% to $387.1 million.
The single most important swing factor is subscription ARR growth and net retention. Because the price is a long-duration bet on sustained growth plus an eventual margin ramp, each quarter's ARR print and the trajectory of net new ARR are the catalysts that move the stock most.
The other markers to track are the path to GAAP profitability (whether the margin improvement the price assumes is materializing), the trajectory of stock-based compensation and share count, and competitive dynamics against data-protection incumbents and broader security platforms. The cyber-resilience and enterprise-AI positioning is the demand tailwind to watch for new growth vectors.
Sources: Rubrik fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 results (Rubrik investor relations, TradingView, Yahoo Finance), FY2025 10-K.
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
Rubrik - Software and Services (consolidated) (reported)
- VRNS (VARONIS SYSTEMS, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …to accounts or disclosures that are material to the financial statements and (2) involved our especially challenging, subjective or complex judgments. The communication of the critical audit matter does not alter in any way our opinion on the consolidated financial statements, taken as a whole, and we are not, by…
- FY2025 10-K: …and risk analysis of enterprise data and monitoring of user behavior and file, e-mail and AI-related activity; security monitoring and risk reduction; data breach, insider threat, malware, ransomware and phishing detection with Managed Data Detection and Response ("MDDR"); automatic response to ransomware and other…
- CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …year presentation. These reclassifications had no effect on previously reported results of operations or accumulated deficit. Principles of Consolidation The consolidated financial statements include the accounts of the Company and its wholly owned subsidiaries. All intercompany balances and transactions have been…
- FY2025 10-K: …reliability and performance as required by its subscription contracts. Accordingly, any estimated refunds related to these agreements in the consolidated financial statements is not material during the periods presented. The Company provides rebates and other credits within its contracts with certain resellers, which…
- S (SentinelOne Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …alliance partners, MSPs, MSSPs, MDRs, OEMs, and IR firms. We provide our partners with our differentiated technology and platform to enable them to provide the best security service to their own customers. Our Singularity Platform offers our partners complete multi-tenancy and a superior level of management…
- FY2025 10-K: …intelligence-powered threat prevention, detection, and response capabilities, enabling an automatic protection against a full spectrum of cyber threats. We built our Singularity Platform to be deployed as a cloud service or in private and hybrid clouds. Customers can extend the functionality of their subscription to…
- SAIL (SailPoint, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …policies contained in Note 1 "Description of Business and Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" in the notes to our consolidated financial statements. Revenue Recognition Revenue consists of fees for SaaS subscriptions, term, and perpetual licenses for our software products, post-contract customer support, and…
- FY2025 10-K: …customer has taken control of the software license. All perpetual license transactions include maintenance and support performance obligations which are included in subscription revenue. We expect perpetual license revenue as a percentage of total revenue to continue to decrease over time as we focus on increasing…
- NET (Cloudflare Inc)
- FY2025 10-K: …suite of deeply integrated products that serve as a unified control plane for our customers, allowing them to build, connect, and secure applications and corporate infrastructure. Customers can quickly and easily join Cloudflare by using just one of our products and then expand their usage of Cloudflare over time by…
- FY2025 10-K: 124 Table of contents (1) Open purchase commitments are for the purchase of services under non-cancelable contracts. They were not recorded as liabilities on the consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2025 as the Company had not yet received the related services. (2) Long-term commitments for bandwidth usage…
- FROG (JFrog Ltd.)
- FY2025 10-K: …and assess performance. He monitors revenue across various products and services on a consolidated basis and uses consolidated net loss to adjust business plans, primarily by comparing actual operating results to forecasts and prior periods. The following table summarizes the Company's segment revenue, significant…
- FY2025 10-K: …chain. The JFrog Platform enables organizations to unify software development, security, governance, and distribution across hybrid teams, including developers, security professionals, Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning ("AI/ML") engineers and Artificial Intelligence agents. It supports the consumption,…
- GTLB (GITLAB INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: , allocation of revenue to the license element in the Company's self-managed subscriptions, estimating the amortization period for capitalized costs to obtain a contract, allowance for doubtful accounts, fair value of contingent consideration, taxation of intangible property in company formation, merger, or…
- FY2025 10-K: …contractors, third-party payment processing fees, and allocated overhead. Personnel-related expenses consist of salaries, benefits, bonuses, and stock-based compensation. Cost of self-managed license and other revenue consists primarily of contractor and personnel-related costs, including stock-based compensation…
- MDB (MONGODB, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …the effectiveness of our customer support services, our pricing, the prices of competing products or services, mergers and acquisitions affecting our customer base, global economic conditions and the other risk factors described herein. As a result, we cannot assure you that customers will renew subscriptions or…
- FY2025 10-K: …a broad range of use cases. In addition to selling subscriptions to its software, the Company provides post-contract support, training and consulting services for its offerings. The Company's fiscal year ends on January 31. 2. Summary of Significant Accounting Policies Basis of Presentation The consolidated financial…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.