RB Global, Inc (RBA): what the price assumes
In the published model solve dated 2026-Q2, anchored at $86.06, RB Global, Inc (RBA) is priced for +14.9% growth. boothcheck publishes no house fair value, target price, or buy/sell rating; individual model outputs and user-controlled scenarios are analytical inputs, not Boothcheck targets. Narrative composed 2026-06-28.
Generated: 2026-08-30 · Exported: 2026-08-31 · Source: https://boothcheck.com/report/RBA
Headline
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Ticker | RBA |
| Company | RB Global, Inc |
| Current price | $86.06/sh |
| Composition | Transactional seller revenue 20% / Transactional buyer revenue 49% / Marketplace services revenue 7% / Inventory sales revenue 24% |
What The Price Assumes (Inversion)
The assumption today's price embeds, recovered by inverting the valuation.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Inversion basis | whole-company |
| Operating margin (value-band context) | 3.5% |
| Operating margin today | 15.7% |
| Margin compression (value-band) | -12.2pp |
| Implied growth | 14.9% |
| Multiple paid | 27x operating income |
The operating-margin figure is value-band context at year 6: derived from the framework's value band, a separate calculation — not part of the priced-in solve.
Solve inputs: computed at a 7.9% cost of capital with 4% terminal growth over a 5-year stage.
How unusual the bet is: elevated (limited comparison data)
| Reference | Value |
|---|---|
| vs own history | -0.11σ |
| cohort percentile (of 212 peers) | 80 |
Valuation X-Ray
Asset, earnings-power and peer-multiple models all land far below the price; ONLY the growth-DCF reaches it. The bet is durable compounding the static frames structurally cannot price (a moat/durability premium).
How the valuation models price the stock relative to the market price. Price/FV above 1.0 means the market pays more than that lens defends (expensive); at or below 1.0 the lens can defend the price.
| Family | Median price/FV | Models | Reads |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asset | 3.54x | 5 | expensive |
| Earnings | 3.70x | 5 | expensive |
| Relative | 2.27x | 5 | expensive |
| Growth | 0.86x | 3 | justifies |
Families that justify the price: Growth Families that call it expensive: Asset, Earnings, Relative
The models below discount at their own flat-beta convention rates (cost of equity 9.3%, WACC 7.5%); the inversion above states its own rate.
Per-Model Detail (n=18)
| Model | Family | FV | Price/FV | Applicable | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF Perpetual Growth | Growth | $126.16 | 0.68x | yes | FCF base $0.8B, growth 9% (input: historical growth), terminal g 4.0%, WACC 7.5%, 6yr projection |
| DCF Exit Multiple | Growth | $99.75 | 0.86x | yes | Exit EV/EBITDA: 13.8x / 15.8x / 17.8x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull), 6yr |
| Relative Valuation | Relative | $69.55 | 1.24x | yes | P/E 24.68x (blended: static sector reference 20x + trailing (TTM) 36x), scenarios: 20.5x / 24.7x / 28.9x (bear / base = reference held flat / bull), EV/EBITDA 14x |
| Simple DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Two-Stage DDM | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Simple Excess Return | Asset | $26.14 | 3.29x | yes | BV/sh $30.16, ROE (TTM) 8.0%, ke 9.3% |
| Two-Stage Excess Return | Asset | $24.31 | 3.54x | yes | 5yr excess ROE then converge to ke=9.3% |
| Discounted Future Market Cap | Growth | $70.70 | 1.22x | yes | Rev $4.7B, growth 9% (input: historical growth; tapered), Terminal P/S: 2.8x / 3.4x / 4.0x (bear / base = today's held flat / bull, cap 8x) |
| Peter Lynch Fair Value | Relative | $25.80 | 3.34x | yes | EPS $2.15, growth 7% (input: historical EPS growth), PEG=4.91 (Overvalued) |
| Margin Trajectory | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Earnings Power Value | Earnings | $11.99 | 7.18x | yes | Normalized EBIT (5y avg op income, one-time charges added back) $0.56B × (1−22%) / WACC 7.5% → EPV (no growth) |
| Residual Income | Asset | $24.02 | 3.58x | yes | BV $30.16 + 5yr PV of (ROE (TTM) 8.0% − Kₑ 9.3%) × BV; BV grows 5.2%/yr |
| Graham Number | Asset | $38.20 | 2.25x | yes | √(22.5 × EPS $2.15 × BVPS $30.16) — Graham's conservative floor |
| EV/EBITDA Relative | Relative | $73.94 | 1.16x | yes | EBITDA $1.24B × sector EV/EBITDA 14.0x |
| FCF Yield | Earnings | $26.79 | 3.21x | yes | FCF $789.3M / Kₑ 9.3% — zero-growth perpetuity |
| SBC-Adj FCF Yield | Earnings | $22.96 | 3.75x | yes | SBC-adj FCF $0.72B (FCF $0.79B − SBC $0.07B) capitalized at Kₑ |
| Ben Graham Formula | Earnings | $41.42 | 2.08x | yes | EPS $2.15 × (8.5 + 2×7.2%) × (4.4 / 5.3%) |
| ROIC-Justified P/B | Asset | $7.48 | 11.51x | yes | BV $30.16 × (ROIC 1.9% / WACC 7.5%) |
| P/Sales Sector | Relative | $37.98 | 2.27x | yes | Revenue $4.72B × sector P/S 1.5x |
| PEG Fair Value | Relative | $23.36 | 3.68x | yes | EPS $2.15 × (PEG 1.5 × growth 7.2% (input: historical EPS growth)) → PE 10.9x |
| Earnings Yield | Earnings | $23.24 | 3.70x | yes | EPS $2.15 / required return 9.3% (Rf 4.3% + ERP 5.0%) |
| Funds From Operations Multiple | Relative | — | — | no | — |
| Clinical Phase NPV | Growth | — | — | no | — |
| Merton | Asset | — | — | no | — |
| V5 Mechanical | — | — | — | no | — |
Economic-Unit Decomposition (Sum Of The Parts)
Only one reportable economic unit is present in the current topology source. Consolidated operating lenses remain available, but there is no multi-unit decomposition.
| Unit | Role | Valuation basis | Revenue | Reported profit | Value evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Global (single segment) | operating | enterprise | 4.6B reported-currency | — | withheld | unresolved no unit value |
No total common-equity value is stated. One or more material units lack a supported unit value. The displayed values are an indicative subtotal; consolidated debt and cash cannot be applied to a fraction of the company.
Solvency
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Net debt | $2.0b |
| Net debt / NOPAT (after-tax) | 3.51x |
| Net debt / operating income (pre-tax) | 2.75x |
| Interest coverage | 4.0x |
| Share count CAGR (dilution) | 2.9% |
| Burning cash | no |
Bullet Takeaways
RB Global is an auction marketplace, so the number that matters is gross transaction value, not revenue. In Q1 2026 GTV rose 13% to $4.3 billion, revenue rose 11% to $1.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose 11% to $362.7 million. The take-rate on a large and growing volume is the real engine.
At $110.59 the price embeds roughly 22% operating growth a year for five years, which the model flags as within range against the company's own record. Only the growth-DCF reaches the price; the asset, earnings-power, and peer-multiple methods all sit far below, marking a moat and durability premium that static frames cannot capture.
The earnings-based methods understate the business. Reported EPS of $2.15 is depressed by amortization from the IAA acquisition, while free cash flow near $790 million reflects the real cash economics. Net debt near $2 billion, taken on for IAA, is the leverage to watch against interest coverage of about 4 times.
Bull Case
Valuing RB Global correctly means starting with what makes an auction marketplace unusual: the company never owns most of what crosses its platform, so its economics are a take-rate on gross transaction value rather than a margin on its own inventory. In the first quarter of 2026, GTV grew 13% to $4.3 billion, total revenue grew 11% to $1.2 billion, and net income grew 20% to $135.6 million. Service revenue, the high-margin commission stream, grew 5% to $897.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to $362.7 million. A marketplace compounding GTV double-digits with a stable take-rate is exactly the structure that supports the growth the price embeds.
The two-sided network is the durable advantage. RB Global runs the leading marketplace for heavy equipment and trucks alongside IAA, the salvage and total-loss vehicle auction business. The IAA filing names the demand driver directly, noting that the volume of damaged and total-loss vehicles is central to the business (FY2024 10-K, accession 0001628280-25-008201). Buyers go where the inventory is and sellers go where the buyers are, and that flywheel is hard to replicate. The salvage-auto side also carries a counter-cyclical quality: more total-loss vehicles flow through when accident and replacement dynamics rise, partly offsetting equipment-cycle swings.
Management is compounding through bolt-on M&A and raised its outlook. RB Global received Hart-Scott-Rodino approval for the BigIron acquisition (expected to close in the second quarter) and completed tuck-ins expanding into agriculture and rail. It raised full-year 2026 guidance to GTV growth of 6% to 9% and adjusted EBITDA growth of about 8% at the midpoint. Crucially, the cash economics are far stronger than the GAAP optics: free cash flow near $790 million dwarfs the reported $2.15 in EPS, because IAA acquisition amortization weighs on accounting earnings without touching cash. For the bull, this is a durable, lightly-capital-intensive marketplace whose true earning power the static methods understate.
Bear Case
The honest read on the model disagreement is that one method reaches the price and a dozen do not, and the holder needs to be clear-eyed about which is doing the work. Only the growth-DCF lands at the quote (perpetual-growth DCF near $113, exit-multiple near $119). Every other family sits far below: earnings power value near $11, simple excess return near $26, residual income near $24, the relative methods in the $37 to $73 range, and the blended central estimate near $50. The conservative methods are partly distorted by IAA amortization, but even adjusting for that, the price is leaning entirely on a forward-growth story; if the 22% implied operating growth fades faster than assumed, the static methods clustered well below $73 become the relevant anchor.
The leverage taken on for IAA is the structural overhang. Net debt sits near $2 billion at about 2.75 times operating income, with interest coverage near 4 times, the residue of a large debt-funded acquisition. Return on equity is only about 8%, below the cost of equity, because the IAA goodwill and intangibles sit on a roughly $30 book value per share and the acquired earnings have not yet lifted returns above the hurdle. A marketplace that should earn high returns on capital is, on a consolidated basis, not yet clearing its cost of equity, and the price assumes that gap closes through years of compounding.
The cyclicality cuts both ways. The equipment-auction side is tied to construction, transportation, and capital-spending cycles, and a downturn pressures both volumes and the values realized, which feeds the take-rate. The salvage side depends on total-loss vehicle volumes that can shift with vehicle values and repair economics. The price embeds steady double-digit GTV growth and synergy capture from IAA and the bolt-ons; if a cyclical air pocket or integration friction interrupts that, a 32-times multiple on operating income has a long way to compress toward the methods that value the business on what it earns today rather than on what it must earn next.
Valuation
Inverted, the price is a forward-growth bet. At $110.59 (June 28, 2026) RB Global trades at roughly 32 times company-wide operating income, which solves to operating growth of about 22.5% a year for five years at an 8.1% cost of capital. Each one-point change in the cost of capital moves the implied growth rate about 8.7 points. The pace is within the company's own recent record, so the model labels it within range, though only about a third of comparable fast-growers have sustained such growth for five years.
The method families make the bet explicit, and the characterization is direct: asset, earnings-power, and peer-multiple models all say richly valued, and only the growth-DCF reaches the price (perpetual-growth DCF near $113, exit-multiple near $119). The asset and earnings families sit far below: earnings power value near $11, simple excess return near $26, residual income near $24, Graham number near $38. The relative family lands in the $37 to $73 range. The blended central estimate is about $50, and the reasonable-growth band runs from about $66 at the low to $114 at the base, with the high case near $132.
The reconciliation is that the price is a moat and durability premium the static frames structurally cannot price. Two important adjustments support that read. First, the earnings-based methods understate true economics because IAA acquisition amortization depresses GAAP earnings while free cash flow near $790 million reflects the real cash generation, so the FCF-yield and earnings methods printing in the $20s are too low for a marketplace. Second, the asset methods are distorted by acquisition goodwill on the book. The growth-DCF that reaches the price is the most relevant frame for a capital-light marketplace, but the burden it carries is real: net debt near $2 billion and interest coverage near 4 times mean the durable-compounding thesis must also service the IAA leverage.
Catalysts
The most recent catalyst was the first-quarter 2026 report and guidance raise. GTV grew 13% to $4.3 billion, revenue grew 11% to $1.2 billion, net income grew 20% to $135.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to $362.7 million. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to GTV growth of 6% to 9% and adjusted EBITDA growth of about 8% at the midpoint (excluding any BigIron impact).
The M&A pipeline is a live catalyst. RB Global received Hart-Scott-Rodino approval for the BigIron acquisition and expects to close it in the second quarter, and it has completed tuck-ins expanding into agriculture and rail. Integration and the realized contribution from these deals, plus continued IAA synergy capture, are the markers to watch for whether the growth assumption the price embeds holds.
The key swing factors are GTV growth and the take-rate across both the equipment and salvage-auto marketplaces, which are sensitive to capital-spending cycles and total-loss vehicle volumes respectively. The IAA-related leverage (net debt near $2 billion) is the balance-sheet item to monitor, since debt reduction would lift returns toward the cost of equity over time.
Sources: RB Global Q1 2026 results and 2026 outlook (The Globe and Mail, TipRanks, Ticker Report, stockinvest.us), BigIron HSR approval (businesswire.com).
Peer Cohorts (Per Segment, With Filing Citations)
RB Global (single segment) (reported)
- CPRT (COPART, INC.)
- FY2025 10-K: …to obtain the vehicle. At that time, the vehicle information will be uploaded to our system and made available for buyers to review online. The vehicle is then sold at auction on VB3 typically within seven days. Proceeds are then collected from the member, typically seller fees are subtracted, and the remainder is…
- FY2025 10-K: …We are a leading global provider of online auctions and vehicle remarketing services with operations in the United States ("U.S."), the United Kingdom ("U.K."), Germany, Brazil, Canada, the United Arab Emirates ("U.A.E."), Spain, Finland, Oman, the Republic of Ireland, and Bahrain. Our goals are to generate…
- OPLN (OPENLANE, Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001395942 opln:DebtInstrumentVariableRateBaseMember opln:CreditAgreementMember srt:MinimumMember us-gaap:RevolvingCreditFacilityMember 2025-01-01 2025-12-31 0001395942 opln:DebtInstrumentVariableRateBaseMember opln:CreditAgreementMember us-gaap:RevolvingCreditFacilityMember 2025-01-01…
- FY2025 10-K: 8/2012 10.10a + Tenth Amended and Restated Receivables Purchase Agreement, dated September 28, 2022, by and among Automotive Finance Corporation, AFC Funding Corporation, Fairway Finance Company, LLC, Fifth Third Bank, National Association, Chariot Funding LLC, PNC Bank, National Association, Thunder Bay Funding, LLC,…
- EBAY (eBay Inc.)
- FY2025 10-K: …providing everyone the opportunity to grow and thrive. Our Marketplace platforms, including our online marketplace located at www.ebay.com and its localized counterparts, our off-platform marketplaces and our suite of mobile apps, together, create one of the world's largest and most vibrant marketplaces for…
- FY2025 10-K: …Aurelia BidCo 1 Norway AS. 8-K 001-37713 11/21/2023 2.06* Transaction Completion Agreement, dated as of November 21, 2023, by and among eBay Inc., eBay International Holding GmbH, eBay International Management B.V., BCP Aurelia Luxco S.a r.l., Aurelia UK Feederco Limited, Aurelia Netherlands TopCo B.V., Aurelia BidCo…
Methodology Note
- Priced-in inversion: the valuation is inverted on the current price to recover the operating-income growth, duration, and steady-state margin the price embeds (ROE for financials, FFO growth for REITs).
- Valuation x-ray: the valuation models, grouped into four families (asset, earnings, relative, growth). Each model is expressed as a price/FV ratio (distance from price), not a point fair-value estimate. The spread across families is the disagreement.
- Economic-unit decomposition (SOTP): each disclosed business unit is assigned its native valuation basis before any multiple is applied. Operating units are valued on enterprise value; funded financial units are valued on their own common equity, because their borrowings fund earning assets rather than levering the parent. A company total is stated only once every material unit carries a supported value and the parent capital bridge reconciles.
- Solvency: net cash/debt, net-debt-to-NOPAT, interest coverage, and share-count CAGR from EDGAR financials (net debt / FFO and fixed-charge coverage for REITs; regulatory-capital framing for financials).
- Peer cohorts: per-segment comparables with deep-linkable SEC filing citations.
Fundamentals sourced from SEC EDGAR filings. Current price from Databento. The priced-in inversion and valuation x-ray are computed by the boothcheck engine; narrative composed by AI from the structured data.